FEU Public Intellectual Lecture Series | Dr. Mahar Lagmay | Part 2

Summary

The video script discusses disaster risk assessment in the Philippines, emphasizing the importance of early warning systems and accurate, timely warnings. It highlights the role of technology, such as sensors and probabilistic hazard maps, in predicting and mitigating floods and landslides. The script underscores the need for integrating science and technology with local knowledge for effective disaster planning and climate change adaptation, aiming to develop communities resilient to natural hazards.

Takeaways

• 🌪️ Disaster Risk Assessment: In the Philippines, agencies meet to prepare for incoming typhoons and other hazards, focusing on hazard-specific, area-focused, and time-bound warnings.
• 📈 Water Level Monitoring: Sensors are used to monitor water levels, with a sudden rise indicating an imminent disaster, providing a crucial lead time for evacuation.
• 🌧️ Rainfall and Floods: Heavy rainfall, especially during severe weather disturbances, can lead to devastating floods, and contouring rainfall data helps predict flood risks.
• 📊 Color Coding for Rainfall: Different colors on sensor maps represent varying levels of rainfall, with higher amounts indicating a higher risk of flooding.
• 🏞️ Runoff and River Levels: Rainfall in mountainous areas leads to runoff that can cause rivers to swell, and monitoring these levels is key to flood warning systems.
• 🚨 Early Warning Systems: Technology plays a critical role in providing early warnings, allowing communities time to evacuate before disasters strike.
• 🗺️ Importance of Maps: Accurate and up-to-date maps are essential for effective disaster response, including identifying safe evacuation routes and areas.
• 🏚️ Evacuation Center Safety: The location of evacuation centers must be carefully chosen based on hazard maps to avoid placing people in more danger.
• 🔬 Science and Technology in Hazard Mapping: Local knowledge is important, but it must be supplemented with scientific and technological data to accurately predict and prepare for future hazards.
• 🌡️ Climate Change Impacts: Climate change is expected to increase the intensity and frequency of rainfall events, necessitating updated planning and hazard maps.
• 🏘️ Comprehensive Community Planning: Integrating hazard and risk assessments into community planning across all sectors can lead to development unhampered by natural disasters.

Q & A

What is the primary purpose of disaster risk assessment meetings during a typhoon in the Philippines?

The primary purpose is to prepare for incoming hazards by discussing and issuing hazard-specific, area-focused, and time-bound warnings to ensure the safety of the population.

How do sensors help in disaster risk reduction?

Sensors monitor rainfall and water levels, providing real-time data that can trigger alarms when there are significant increases, indicating potential hazards such as floods, allowing for timely evacuations.

What is the significance of the 'contouring' term mentioned in the script?

Contouring refers to the process of mapping rainfall data from sensors, which helps in understanding the intensity and distribution of rainfall, crucial for predicting flood risks.

Why is it important to catch the water level while it's on the rise during severe weather disturbances?

Catching the water level on the rise is critical because it provides the lead time needed for evacuations, potentially saving lives and reducing the impact of disasters.

How does the early warning system work in the context of disaster management?

The early warning system works by using technology like sensors to monitor environmental conditions and issue alerts in time for people to take appropriate action and avoid hazards.

What was the impact of the lack of an early warning system in Cagayan de Oro in 2012?

The lack of an early warning system in Cagayan de Oro led to devastating floods that caught people off guard, resulting in significant loss of life and property.

What are the two key elements in avoiding disasters according to the script?

The two key elements are 'warning' and 'response'. Warnings must be accurate, reliable, timely, and understandable, while responses must be appropriate and prompt.

Why are evacuation maps important in disaster planning?

Evacuation maps are important because they guide people to safe areas during disasters, helping to prevent casualties and ensuring the effectiveness of evacuation efforts.

What is the difference between deterministic and probabilistic hazard maps?

Deterministic maps are based on a single scenario, often the worst remembered by the community, while probabilistic maps depict multiple scenarios, providing a more comprehensive understanding of potential hazards.

How can advanced technologies like LiDAR contribute to disaster risk reduction?

Advanced technologies like LiDAR can create high-resolution maps that show elevations, land use, and potential hazard areas, enabling better planning and preparedness for disasters.

What is the role of science and technology in creating effective disaster risk reduction plans?

Science and technology play a crucial role by providing data and insights that enhance the accuracy and comprehensiveness of disaster risk reduction plans, ensuring they are based on a sound understanding of potential hazards.

Outlines

00:00

🌪️ Disaster Risk Assessment and Early Warning Systems

The first paragraph discusses the importance of disaster risk assessment, particularly in the context of typhoons in the Philippines. It highlights the collaborative efforts of various agencies to prepare for incoming hazards by using hazard-specific, area-focused, and time-bound warnings. The use of sensors to monitor rainfall and water levels is emphasized as a crucial tool for providing early warnings, allowing for timely evacuation. The narrative provides examples from past disasters, such as Typhoon Pedra, to illustrate the effectiveness of these systems. It also discusses the importance of understanding rainfall patterns and the potential for devastating floods, drawing comparisons with historical rainfall events in the UK and the Philippines.

05:03

🚨 The Role of Technology in Disaster Response

This paragraph emphasizes the critical role of technology in disaster response, focusing on the use of early warning systems to prevent flash floods. It recounts a specific incident in Cagayan de Oro in 2012, where an effective early warning system allowed people to evacuate to safety before the floods arrived. The paragraph also underscores the dual elements of disaster management: accurate and timely warnings from the government, and appropriate responses from the public. It points out the importance of having evacuation maps that are based on accurate and up-to-date data, contrasting the effectiveness of probabilistic hazard maps with the limitations of older, interview-based maps.

10:04

🗺️ The Importance of Accurate Hazard Maps

The third paragraph delves into the significance of accurate hazard maps in disaster preparedness and response. It discusses the inadequacy of deterministic maps based on past experiences and the need for probabilistic hazard maps that account for a range of scenarios. The paragraph provides examples of how outdated maps led to tragic outcomes, such as the placement of evacuation centers in hazardous areas during Typhoon Yolanda. It also discusses the use of advanced technologies like LiDAR to create more accurate and detailed maps, which are essential for effective planning and hazard mitigation.

15:06

🌱 Integrating Science and Technology in Community Planning

This paragraph discusses the integration of science and technology in community planning to mitigate the impacts of natural hazards and climate change. It highlights the use of probabilistic maps to identify safe and hazardous areas for various community functions, such as agriculture, tourism, and infrastructure development. The paragraph also touches on the importance of local climate change action plans and the role of advanced technologies in understanding and planning for the physics of water flow and landslide stability. It underscores the need for anticipatory planning that considers multi-hazard and multi-scenario risks.

20:07

🌊 Adapting to Climate Change and Increasing Rainfall

The fifth paragraph addresses the impact of climate change on rainfall patterns and the necessity of adapting to these changes. It presents projections of increased rainfall frequency and intensity, illustrating how historical rainfall events may become more common in the future. The paragraph calls for the translation of this scientific data into actionable planning measures, such as updating flood maps and planning for infrastructure that can withstand increased rainfall. It emphasizes the importance of climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction in community development planning.

25:09

🏛️ Transforming Disaster Risk Reduction into National Development

The final paragraph concludes the script by framing disaster risk reduction as a platform for national development. It suggests that by using probabilistic hazard maps, risk assessments, and local climate change action plans, the Philippines can proactively plan for and mitigate the impacts of natural hazards and climate change. The paragraph invites the audience to participate in this effort, emphasizing that through comprehensive and science-based planning, the country can achieve development that is resilient to disasters.

Keywords

💡Disaster Risk Assessment

Disaster Risk Assessment is a systematic evaluation of the potential sources of hazards and the likely impacts of those hazards on a community or area. In the video, it is the process where agencies meet to discuss and prepare for incoming hazards like typhoons, emphasizing the importance of early warning systems and accurate, timely information to mitigate disaster impacts.

💡Early Warning System

An Early Warning System is a mechanism put in place to provide timely and effective alerts to communities at risk from hazards. The video script discusses the use of sensors to monitor rainfall and water levels, which can predict floods and provide crucial lead time for evacuations, as exemplified by the case of Pedra.

💡Probabilistic Hazard Map

A Probabilistic Hazard Map is a tool used to depict potential hazards based on various scenarios and their likelihood of occurrence. The video emphasizes the need for such maps to plan for future disasters and climate change impacts, providing a multi-scenario view that includes small, large, and extreme events, unlike deterministic maps which are based on historical events.

💡Climate Change Adaptation

Climate Change Adaptation refers to the process of adjusting to actual or expected climate change effects to reduce harm or exploit beneficial opportunities. The script discusses how preparing for future rainfall projections and translating them into hazard maps is part of climate change adaptation, particularly in the context of disaster risk reduction.

💡Storm Surge

A Storm Surge is a large, temporary rise in sea level accompanying a hurricane, typhoon, or tropical storm. The video script mentions the devastating impact of storm surges, such as during Typhoon Yolanda, and the importance of accurate mapping and planning to avoid placing evacuation centers in vulnerable areas.

💡Landslide

A Landslide is a geological phenomenon where a mass of rock, earth, or debris moves down a slope. The video script discusses the use of technology and science to predict and map landslide-prone areas, which is crucial for community planning and avoiding disaster-related fatalities.

💡Evacuation Center

An Evacuation Center is a location to which people are moved for their safety during a natural disaster. The script highlights the importance of proper site selection for these centers, using scientific data and hazard maps to ensure they are not placed in areas prone to hazards like flooding or storm surges.

💡Land Use Plan

A Land Use Plan is a strategy for the use of land resources in a community or region. The video script connects land use planning with disaster risk reduction, emphasizing the integration of hazard information to guide development away from hazardous areas and towards sustainable growth.

💡Flash Flood

A Flash Flood is a rapid flooding event characterized by a sudden surge in water level that occurs with little to no warning. The video script recounts the Cagayan de Oro flash flood incident, demonstrating the effectiveness of early warning systems in saving lives by providing time for people to move to higher ground.

💡Rainfall Contouring

Rainfall Contouring is a method used to represent areas of equal rainfall amounts on a map. The video script describes how this technique is used in disaster risk assessment to identify areas of heavy rainfall and predict potential flooding, which is vital for issuing warnings and organizing evacuations.

💡Local Climate Change Action Plans

Local Climate Change Action Plans are strategies developed at the community level to address the impacts of climate change. The video script discusses the integration of these plans with disaster risk reduction efforts, ensuring that communities are prepared for both current and future climate-related hazards.

Highlights

Disaster risk assessment involves a collaborative effort among agencies to prepare for incoming hazards such as typhoons.

Hazard-specific, area-focused, and time-bound warnings are crucial for disaster preparedness.

Sensors can provide early warnings by monitoring rainfall and water levels to predict floods.

A three to twelve-hour lead time is often available for evacuations based on sensor data.

The use of technology in early warning systems can prevent disaster by alerting communities in advance.

Rainfall contouring helps in understanding the severity of potential floods.

The Philippines experienced extreme rainfall during Habakkuk in 2012 and 2013, exceeding UK's flood-causing thresholds.

Runoff from heavy rainfall can lead to flash floods, emphasizing the need for rapid response.

Technology and early warning systems were instrumental in averting disaster in Cagayan de Oro in 2012.

The importance of accurate and timely warnings in conjunction with appropriate public response.

The need for proper evacuation planning and the use of hazard maps to guide safe relocation.

The inadequacy of deterministic hazard maps based on past experiences, versus the need for probabilistic hazard maps.

The devastating impact of Typhoon Yolanda and the importance of having advanced warning systems and maps.

Investment in technology like LiDAR to create accurate hazard maps for better disaster preparedness.

The integration of hazard maps with land use planning for comprehensive community development.

The role of climate change in intensifying and increasing the frequency of extreme weather events.

The necessity of adapting planning strategies to account for the impacts of climate change on natural hazards.

The concept of climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction for sustainable community development.

Using probabilistic hazard maps and risk assessments to plan for future disasters and climate change impacts.

Transcripts

[Music]

we disaster risk assessment

wherein every time there's a typhoon

that enters the philippine

area of responsibility everybody

meets up all agencies concerned with

disasters meet up

and they discuss and the reason why they

discuss is because they want to prepare

for the incoming hazards

and they know that the warnings that

should be given

are the warnings that are hazard

specific area focus

and time bound so the way they

uh used it was okay for example when

they see that it's raining in a certain

place

and the water level increases

you can alarm the people

so water level that

that is recorded without any rain

is actually more or less at a certain

height

but when there's a severe weather

disturbance it goes up

and then when it suddenly goes up that's

when the disaster strikes

the trick to avoid the disaster is to

catch the water level while it's on the

rise

so if you have sensors that give you an

idea of where it's raining

and then you look at the water level

sensor from upstream

you know that you have at least about

three

to six hours sometimes 12 hours need

time to evacuate

and that was used in the past in pedra

to provide hazard specific

area focused and time-bound warnings

and when the drm

officer was called at around 12 o'clock

big floods happened at 6

10. so there was a lead time and before

the peak floods happened

the drm officer in the local government

unit was already able to

take them away from from the hazards so

just to explain further

how to do that warning so for example

from the sensors there's a record of

rainfall

now it's color the term is contouring

now from the

the sensor record you contour it's

yellow there it's blue

yellow means 300 to 400 millimeters of

rain

in the uk when they talk about 100

millimeters of rain

that's the type of rain that will cause

a flood

and will devastate an entire village

that's in the uk but during habakkuk in

2012

in 2013 we had rainfall

in metro manila that reached about

1063 millimeters

10 times more than what the british

people

fear so we are actually

in some some way brazilian this one is

300

so as shown in that color the scale

says 300 to 400. so if it rains

in the mountains the water will not

all sit through the ground some will

run off on the surface and when they run

off they enter into streams

enter into rivers okay and eventually

end up into the sea okay so if the

community is here

vegan is there if the community is here

and you record rainfall at a certain

instance to be more than

100 millimeters in this case 300 to 400

kilometers

you have enough time to avoid the flood

which will come 46 hours later

okay and that is the use of technology

you know

it's called as an early warning system

and we need to put that in place

because if we don't put that in place

then

there's no wiring system if there's no

warning system

we are caught unaware another case

happened in cagayan the oro this was on

december 4

2012 so this sensor

recorded rainfall that that caused the

river to

to go up from this level

from one meter to eight meters

in the span of one hour one hour to mass

18 you know how high eight meters

is that's two floors where

else will that water go but

to the sea and before it reaches the sea

it will have to pass through the guy and

the oil

which was devastated a year earlier in

2011

but despite the high water levels

and the floods rushing in

very quickly it's called as a flash

flood

by the time it came rushing towards

sagayan

they were already wide because of

technology there was an

early warning system and when the floods

came rushing

in all of the people were just in the

hills

trying to view that hazard so these are

the last slides

the famous disasters that happened

ever since macaroni and project noah

these are disasters that

happen disasters that were averted

but up to vinta but there were also

some that happened after 20

2012. like the pablo landslide like the

storm surge of cayenne

tropical storms that devastated many

towns in biliran

as well as mindanao respectively

in avoiding disasters there are two

types there are two

key elements warning and response

warning is the responsibility of

government it must be accurate

reliable timely and understandable

okay but no amount of

good worrying or accurate warning will

work

if you don't take action

goodbye

oh

am i correct did you hear that a lie

no you don't have a cell phone

nokia so

you didn't even bother so what about the

others

so with a warning which is the

responsibility of government

there must be a corresponding

appropriate response which is you

your response and your response must be

appropriate

not responding sleeping

and being one not even bothering to look

outside

that's not appropriate but sometimes if

you do that

sometimes people evacuate but you need

maps to tell you where to evacuate

and sometimes people go to evacuation

centers that are the places where they

die

right so maps are very important

like for example in tacloba

there was a storm surge warning

two days in advance

two days in advance

but the maps that were provided to them

two years before which was used by the

lgu

showed the storm surge inundation of the

coastal area here

here here here

and it's based on interviews

so interviewing

so it's based on the experience of the

community

not that i'm saying that it's not it's

not good data but

it's probably not sufficient it's

necessary

to collect the data from the people

but it's not sufficient because what

happened during yolanda was in

an event that was bigger than what they

remember

correct because this was a bigger event

than what they knew

and therefore they were caught off guard

they were surprised but

i'm in a surprise

what we needed before you land the strap

was a kind of map called as a

probabilistic hazard map

it's multi multi-scenario it depicts the

small storm surge the big storm surges

the bigger ones and the yolanda type

storm surge and had we have this kind

of map a probabilistic hazard map

before yolanda came we could have

advised

all of those people who went to

evacuation centers

where we could have advised people to

move away

two to three kilometers away from the

coastline

but we did not have those so the warning

gave

an absolute value of the height but did

not

give the inundation extent

the inland inundation it was a it's a

a warning of an absolute height in a

relative landscape

okay so we need these kinds of maps

we didn't have it let's say

one volatile technology from that time

when it happened

but now we do have it we we invested

billions of pesos to help to get

the technology in lidar and to train

young scientists to do the manual work

to

run these simulations to create this

kind of maps that would tell us

that could have told us that these

places are dangerous

and 80 70 to 80

of the evacuation centers got inundated

by storm surges

hundreds of people died

in those evacuation centers i'll give

you another example

this is a deterministic map single

scenario based on interviews

yellow refers to low susceptibility to

that smile this is an official map by

the way

so let's put the evacuation center here

because

amongst all the all of the places that's

the lowest

hazardous area the lowest susceptibility

to hazards

let's put the evacuation center there

but of course

after the disaster after it happened

many people died in that

that place barangay and all the map was

changed because it's it already happened

it's not it's part of the historical

record already

so it got transformed into a high

susceptibility

flooding okay this is barangay and

that one you can see that the river

flows here

it's a small river relatively small

river so

when the people were transferred to that

place as an evacuation site i mean

ah that river does not really become big

it's just like that we can stay here

this is a safe place

lacked science because the science

and the technology would have shown that

that place

was dangerous but science was not used

the technology was not done what

happened was

when tithing boffa came in it rained

and then it generated this big

debris flow a flood it's like a flood

but

instead of water it was eighty percent

boulders

twenty percent rocks so it overwhelmed

barangay and that

each of these dots here uh green even

white dots

these are rocks right yeah sometimes as

big as that

three meters below that man is the

evacuation center

where 566 people died

they went to the evacuation center

they were one that's why they went to

the evacuation center

but what happened the response

was not appropriate they went to the

wrong place

because the hazard map that was used

did not reflect the bigger event

than what they knew or than what they

remembered

so the lesson there is that when we make

maps we make maps that

are supplemented by science and

technology

local knowledge is good it's necessary

but not sufficient we must supplement it

with science and technology to depict

hazards of the future

to depict climate change impacts when we

talk about probabilistic maps it's

multi-scenario as opposed to single

scenario

and in the philippine practice in single

scenario nothing is

the scenario that is what is the worst

that is remembered by the community

but what if it is bigger than what the

community remembers

so we need multi-hazard multi-scenario

maps these are called

probabilistic maps so we have a storage

search that is small a storm surge that

is

bigger storm surges that is much bigger

landslides storm surge guy yolanda that

was landslides

then flats that are small bigger bigger

and then you put them together

because you have a multi scenario where

they hazard that

probabilistic hazard and despite

that areas that are safe

those in grey okay

that's where you site the evacuation

center

not in the red place but you will not

see that

safe or dangerous areas if you don't use

the technology and if you don't use the

science

and because of our investment we are now

able

to do that so this is interview based no

this is no landslide this is high

landslide

a low flat that's the deterministic

fanca

commandment gain on probabilistic you

make a good

depiction of the landscape at high

resolution you are able to know the

elevation

you can plot all of the elements in that

area even the land use map

and you can show a small flat

a bigger flag a much bigger plan

so multi-scenario pakistan having

probabilistic

bigger scenarios as well than what the

community knows

okay so for development planning that's

very important

let's say the interview based one

will tell that community or the planner

or

let's put the evacuation center here or

the school there

see that's the people in the community

remember that it does not flood

in that area but

a bigger event than what has happened in

the past

we are going to kill

and that can only be shown using

advanced technologies

that can only be depicted if you use

advanced technologies

which makes use of science our

understanding on the physics of flow of

water

and stability of drugs in the case of

landslides we have been doing

local climate change action plans for

all communities

right and then diving communities this

is their land use plan

you can put the flood the storms the

storm surge the landslide

hazards and their land use their

planning

put them all together and you can see

the plants in relation to hazards

so you don't need to imagine you can

already visualize and see

where the dangerous and where the safe

places are

correct okay so in planning for

settlement in a particular community

ah that's what we choose and we chose

that because the information was made

available

and it's very clear for agriculture uh

okay

nato in some parts but not all parties

then let's plant in

the non-flat road areas but for

flood-flowing areas for climate change

we

plant crops that are resilient to floods

and for tourism

carlow viewing center this is an actual

example that's the municipality

it's a bird viewing center it's

dangerous

it's very dangerous landslides due to

heavy rainfall may happen there any time

but we know that the storms don't come

in

every day they don't pass through every

day there's about

two to three times in a year from times

five

so what you do is you plan for uh

evacuation center then

a backup center so back up and there's a

storm and when it's in the

south china sea but might exit that go

back business as useful at the shortest

possible time

that's how you plan communities and when

you plan it you don't just plan it for

settlement and agriculture and for

tourism

you plan it for agriculture coastal

water health forestry biodiversity

the environment energy education tourism

infrastructure settlement

and mining sectors imagine

if you can plan a community and all

communities of the country

and plan it across all sectors

doing anticipatory planning there will

be

true and real development of

each and every municipality of our

country

they will progress unhampered by the

impacts of hazards

don't be intimidated by this graph no

this is just accumulated rainfall per

day

this is uh the frequency

so once every 100 you know for example

280 millimeters of rain as recorded by

pagasa

this is the historical record of pagasa

the black line

but we've heard about climate change and

tsunami is a climate change

um if there's uh

going to be impacts of global warming

one of those impacts would be more

intense and close

bringing more rain so there are

projections and this can be modeled

so in that in 280 millimeters of rain

when you project it to a climate

exchange scenario in 2049

or at climate change scenario by 2079

you're nothing 280 millimeters that

happens

once every 100 years becomes more

frequent

it's going to be once every 12.5 days

so with climate change

not only in scale but in frequency as

well

so we have to handle it more frequently

we have to deal with it more quickly

substance of climate change

inducting once every 100 years

once every 100 years in vista 280

i'm giving 400 millimeters

the david land but how do you translate

that into planning

so i give that knowledge of 280

now once every one hundred making 400

you're the municipal planner you're the

architect

you're the urban planner 280 million

four hundred

why thank you

but what will you do with that

information

how can you plan against the hazards

the rain is not the hazard

we must plan against the hazard so

somebody must translate that increasing

rainfall

into a map like this

that when translated new lane into a

flood

you can see the river and the flood

plains

inundated and what height

of blood will happen and you can see

that this subdivision is okay but this

subdivision is not

when that climate change event happens

now

extremely important this place

is dangerous but these places

are good even with increased rainfall

due to climate change

so we may want to think

that preparing

for hazards the historical rainfall

you know alumni you're not recording

preparing for the impacts of rainfall

that will transform into floods

as disaster risk reduction

correct yes

you prepare for this historical record

it's

the rr disaster is deduction

but if you prepare for rains that

are projected into the future bigger

events of the future

due to climate change you are doing

preparation for future disasters but

with climate change impacts

and to address those future disasters

you need to plan well

you need to adapt to the climate change

impacts

and it's called climate change

adaptation

but since you're dealing with disasters

as well natural hazards

we call it climate change adaptation

disaster risk reduction

we plan each and every community against

the hazards against climate change

impacts

across all sectors we do anticipatory

planning

we are developing that community away

from hazards

away from disasters unhampered by

natural natural disasters or natural

hazards

if we do that for all 1634

municipalities of the philippines we not

only develop each and every community

we get them free from disasters

and they develop their progress and if

all of these municipalities progress

our country develops our country

progresses

don't you like that don't you like that

without being the president you can get

the country to develop

would you like to be part of that effort

wouldn't you like the philippines to be

great and develop

we use the disaster platform we use that

bill to develop our country

using probabilistic hazard maps and

probabilistic risk assessment

and local climate change action plans

we make use of this concept reverse it

make that disaster platform work

for our country and make our country

without

using science

thank you

[Music]

you