6 MEGA THEMES I'm Betting On that'll shape INDIA's GROWTH STORY over Next 10 Years

Shankar Nath
18 May 202418:16

Summary

TLDRThe script outlines six mega-trends driving India's economic growth, offering significant investment opportunities. These include urbanization, climate-tech, digitization, healthcare, financialization of savings, and manufacturing. The speaker highlights the potential in sectors like real estate, infrastructure, renewable energy, IT services, healthcare technology, and logistics, emphasizing India's shift towards a skilled, technology-driven economy.

Takeaways

  • 🌐 India's economy is experiencing a 'tailwind' with a growing population, increased investment, and various other factors contributing to its growth potential.
  • 🏙️ Urbanization is a significant trend, with an expected 40% of India's population living in urban areas by the next decade, driving demand for infrastructure and real estate.
  • 💰 Investment opportunities are emerging in sectors such as home loan providers, construction companies, consumer durables, and hospitals due to urbanization.
  • 🌿 Climate tech is a promising area with India's commitment to net-zero emissions by 2070, focusing on renewable energy, waste management, and sustainable practices.
  • 🔋 Renewable energy, particularly green energy, is gaining momentum with large-scale projects like Adani Green Energy's 30 GigaWatt renewable energy plant.
  • 📈 Digitization is a key megatrend, with India's digital infrastructure supporting startups and established companies in fintech and other sectors.
  • 🏥 Healthcare is a booming sector with a growing market size and potential for investment in specialty hospitals, medical equipment manufacturing, and health tech.
  • 💼 The financialization of household savings is on the rise, with a shift from traditional assets to managed investments expected to double by 2027.
  • 🏭 India's manufacturing sector is evolving, with a focus on technology and innovation, and is set to reach a 1 trillion dollar market in the coming years.
  • 🚗 Manufacturing sub-sectors to watch include automotive, electronics, and emerging sectors like semiconductors and agri-tech.
  • 📊 Long-term investors focusing on these six megatrends can expect significant growth and investment opportunities over the next several years.

Q & A

  • What is the term used to describe the population movement from rural areas to urban centers in India?

    -The term used to describe this population movement is 'urbanisation'.

  • What percentage of Indians is expected to live in urban centers over the coming decade according to the script?

    -It is expected that 40% of Indians, which is about 600 million people, will be living in urban centers over the coming decade.

  • What are some of the factors contributing to the growth of urbanization in India as mentioned in the script?

    -Factors contributing to urbanization in India include higher education, infrastructure development, unremunerative agriculture, and the setting up of multiple Smart City projects.

  • How does the script suggest that urbanization will impact the demand for real estate and related sectors?

    -Urbanization will lead to a massive demand for real estate, including residential, educational, healthcare, commercial, and hospitality sectors, as well as a demand for ancillary industries such as cement, metal, paints, and electrical goods.

  • What is the term used to describe businesses focused on environmental restoration in the script?

    -The term used is 'climate-tech'.

  • What is India's promise regarding net-zero carbon emissions as per the script?

    -India has promised to achieve net-zero carbon emissions by 2070.

  • What is the term 'India Stack' referring to in the context of the script?

    -The 'India Stack' refers to a series of government-backed APIs that offer access to government IDs, payment networks, and secured data to any third party, enabling digital infrastructure for various services.

  • How is the script suggesting that the healthcare sector in India is a promising investment opportunity?

    -The healthcare sector is considered promising due to its massive market size, expected annual growth rate of at least 12%, and various sub-themes such as specialty hospitals, medical equipment manufacturing, and healthcare technology.

  • What does the script suggest about the financialisation of household savings in India?

    -The script suggests that financialisation of household savings is a significant trend, with people moving away from traditional assets like real estate and gold towards managed investment products, expected to double by 2027.

  • What are some of the sectors that the script identifies as having significant growth potential within India's manufacturing industry?

    -Sectors identified include automotive & auto components, electronics, pharmaceuticals, textiles, and emerging sectors like semiconductors, agri-tech, and waste management.

  • How does the script describe the impact of digitization on India's economy and investment opportunities?

    -The script describes digitization as a megatrend that has transformed India into a major digitization hub, offering numerous opportunities across IT services, e-commerce, specialized digital services, and digital infrastructure, with potential for continued growth and investment.

Outlines

00:00

🌐 Urbanization and Economic Growth in India

The first paragraph discusses the concept of urbanization in India, where the population is shifting from rural areas to cities, driven by factors such as higher education, infrastructure development, and the diminishing profitability of agriculture. The expected increase in urban population to 600 million over the next decade is anticipated to create a significant demand for real estate and related services, including healthcare, education, and retail. Companies like Max Healthcare are expanding in response to this trend. The paragraph also highlights the potential investment opportunities in home loan providers, construction and infrastructure development companies, electrical consumer durables, and hospitals, which are expected to benefit from the urbanization wave.

05:04

🌿 Climate-Tech and India's Green Energy Revolution

The second paragraph delves into the climate-tech sector, focusing on India's commitment to achieving net-zero carbon emissions by 2070. It outlines the various sub-themes within this sector, such as renewable energy, waste management, and sustainable agriculture, which present significant growth opportunities. The announcement by Adani Green Energy Limited to develop the world's largest renewable energy plant exemplifies the progress and potential in this area. The paragraph suggests that investors should consider companies involved in power generation, transmission, electric vehicles, and the manufacturing of solar panels and wind turbines, among others, as these are likely to benefit from the ongoing green energy transition.

10:05

📲 Digital India: Opportunities in the Digitization Megatrend

The third paragraph highlights the impact of the Digital India campaign, which has transformed the country into a major digitization hub. It discusses the India Stack, a series of government-backed APIs that facilitate digital services, and the rise of companies like PayTM and PhonePe that have leveraged this infrastructure. The paragraph identifies several sub-themes for investment, including IT services, e-commerce, specialized digital services, and the construction of digital infrastructure such as data centers and fiber optic cables, which are poised for growth as India continues to embrace digital transformation.

15:07

🏥 Healthcare Sector: A Lucrative Investment Avenue

The fourth paragraph examines the healthcare sector in India, which is expected to grow at a rate of 12% per annum over the next decade. It identifies various sub-themes within healthcare that offer investment opportunities, such as single specialty hospitals, multi-specialty hospitals, medical equipment manufacturing, healthcare technology, and diagnostics. The paragraph emphasizes the importance of a strong healthcare portfolio for investors, given the sector's growth potential and the increasing demand for quality medical services.

💼 Financialization of Savings: The Shift Towards Investment

The fifth paragraph discusses the trend of financialization of household savings in India, where people are moving away from traditional assets like real estate and gold towards managed investment products. It projects a significant growth in the assets under management (AUM) of the investment industry, driven by factors such as a young and growing population, rising incomes, and increased financial inclusion. The paragraph suggests that investors should pay attention to the banking and NBFC sector, capital markets, asset management companies, and the retirement fund management industry, which are set to benefit from this shift.

🏭 Manufacturing Revival: India's Economic Engine

The final paragraph focuses on the manufacturing sector in India, which is undergoing a transformation towards technology, innovation, and skilled labor. It predicts that the manufacturing market will reach 1 trillion dollars in the near future, with a focus on sectors such as automotive, electronics, and textiles, as well as emerging areas like semiconductors and agri-tech. The paragraph also highlights the importance of logistics as an enabler for the manufacturing industry and suggests that companies in this sector are attractive investment opportunities due to their role in facilitating India's manufacturing growth.

Mindmap

Keywords

💡Urbanisation

Urbanisation refers to the population shift from rural areas to urban centres, leading to the growth and expansion of cities. In the video, it is a key driver for increased demand in real estate, infrastructure, and various services within urban areas. The script mentions that 40% of Indians, or about 600 million people, are expected to live in urban centres over the coming decade, highlighting the massive implications for housing, schools, hospitals, and other urban facilities.

💡Tailwind

A tailwind is a favorable wind that aids progress or advancement. In the context of the video, it metaphorically describes the advantageous conditions that the Indian economy is experiencing, such as a growing working-age population and increased investments, which are propelling economic growth and creating opportunities for various sectors.

💡Mega-themes

Mega-themes are overarching trends or patterns that are expected to drive significant growth or change in various sectors over an extended period. The video identifies six such mega-themes in India, including urbanisation, climate-tech, digitization, healthcare, financialisation of savings, and manufacturing, which present promising investment avenues for the future.

💡Climate-tech

Climate-tech encompasses businesses and technologies focused on environmental restoration and achieving climate goals. The script discusses India's commitment to net-zero carbon emissions by 2070 and the opportunities this presents for sectors like renewable energy, waste management, and sustainable agriculture. It also mentions specific developments like Adani Green Energy's 30 GigaWatt renewable energy plant.

💡Digitization

Digitization is the process of converting information into a digital format, which can be easily stored, processed, and accessed. The video highlights the Digital India campaign and its impact on high-speed internet access, digital government services, and the creation of a digital infrastructure that supports startups and innovation. It also discusses the opportunities this presents for IT services, e-commerce, and specialized digital services.

💡Healthcare

Healthcare in the video is presented as a massive opportunity with a growing market size and expected annual growth of at least 12%. It includes various sub-themes such as single specialty hospitals, multi-specialty hospitals, medical equipment manufacturing, healthcare technology, and diagnostics. The video emphasizes the importance of healthcare in an investor's portfolio due to its defensive nature and the growing demand for medical services.

💡Financialisation of Household Savings

This concept refers to the trend of individuals moving their savings from traditional assets like real estate and gold to financial assets, such as stocks, bonds, and mutual funds. The video cites a report by CRISIL predicting the doubling of India's managed investment industry assets by 2027, indicating a significant shift in how savings are being managed and invested.

💡Manufacturing

The video discusses the transformation in India's manufacturing sector, with a focus on technology, innovation, and skilled labor. It highlights the potential for the manufacturing market to reach 1 trillion dollars and the government's 'Make in India' initiative as key drivers. The script also mentions various sectors within manufacturing that are poised for growth, such as automotive, electronics, and pharmaceuticals.

💡Infrastructure

Infrastructure refers to the basic physical and organizational structures needed for the operation of a society or enterprise. In the context of urbanisation discussed in the video, infrastructure includes roads, bridges, metros, airports, and water management solutions. The script points out the demand for infrastructure development as urban populations grow and the importance of ancillary industries like cement and metal in meeting this demand.

💡Renewable Energy

Renewable energy is energy derived from natural resources that are replenished on a human timescale, such as sunlight, wind, and water. The video emphasizes India's goal of generating 500 GigaWatts of non-fossil fuel-based energy by 2030 and the current installed capacity as of February 2024. It also mentions the significant investments and progress in renewable energy, positioning it as a key area for future growth and investment.

💡Smart Cities

Smart cities are urban areas that use different types of electronic data collection sensors to supply information which is used to manage assets, resources, and services efficiently. The script discusses the setting up of multiple Smart City projects in India as part of the urbanisation mega-trend, indicating a move towards more connected and efficient urban environments.

Highlights

India's economy is experiencing a 'tailwind' due to various factors such as a young population, increased investments, and political stability.

Six mega-trends have been identified for significant growth in India, offering promising investment opportunities.

Urbanization in India is leading to a massive demand for real estate and infrastructure, with 40% of the population expected to live in urban areas in the next decade.

Max Healthcare's acquisition of Sahara Hospital in Lucknow highlights the growing need for medical infrastructure in urbanizing cities.

The demand for construction materials and consumer durables is expected to rise with the expansion of urban areas.

Climate-tech, including renewable energy and sustainable practices, presents a mega-opportunity for Indian businesses to meet climate goals.

Adani Green Energy's development of a 30 GigaWatt renewable energy plant signifies India's progress in climate-related businesses.

Digital India campaign has led to a digitization boom, creating opportunities in IT services, e-commerce, and digital infrastructure.

Healthcare in India is a growing sector with a market size of $180 billion, expected to grow at least 12% annually over the next decade.

Financialization of household savings in India is accelerating, with managed investment industry assets expected to more than double by 2027.

Manufacturing in India is shifting towards technology and innovation, with a target to reach a $1 trillion market in the next few years.

India's focus on 10 key manufacturing sectors and emerging technologies like AI and IoT is driving investment and growth.

Logistics sectors are becoming increasingly important as enablers for the manufacturing industry in India.

Investing in the identified mega-trends can offer substantial returns over the next 5 to 15 years, emphasizing the importance of a long-term investment strategy.

The presentation encourages investors to focus on thematic opportunities through various investment vehicles like mutual funds, ETFs, and AIFs.

A top-down perspective on the economy helps in organizing investment thoughts and capturing thematic opportunities effectively.

Transcripts

play00:00

Walking against the wind might sound like  a lot of fun but it also means you’ll trip,  

play00:04

you’ll fall, you be late to arrive and you  might also lose some hair in the process

play00:08

The exact opposite of this is what  is technically called a “tailwind”  

play00:12

and it’s something India and the Indian  economy has been presented with, thanks to

play00:16

a young, growing working age population

play00:19

a rise in domestic & foreign investment

play00:22

a growing manufacturing sector

play00:23

increase in domestic consumption

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productivity improvements

play00:27

the big infrastructure push

play00:29

political stability

play00:30

a positive and contributing  role in global geo-politics etc.

play00:34

Now as is always the case some sectors,  

play00:36

some industries do better than  others or show a lot more promise

play00:40

In this context, I’ve identified 6 mega-themes  where India and Indian companies are poised  

play00:45

for significant growth and for investors like  you and me, these sectors present a promising  

play00:51

investment avenue for capitalizing  on the future of India's growth story

play00:55

Let’s begin

play01:05

Our first megatrend is “urbanisation” which is the  term used when the population of a country starts  

play01:10

moving from its villages to urban areas resulting  in the growth and expansion of our cities

play01:16

It’s something that’s already happening  in India as people seek higher education,  

play01:21

as more infrastructure gets developed in  our cities and very specific to India when  

play01:26

agriculture turns even more unremunerative  as compared to other occupations

play01:31

To put this in numbers, it’s expected  that 40% of Indians or about 600 million  

play01:35

people will be living in urban  centres over the coming decade

play01:39

This understandably translates to  a massive demand for real estate  

play01:43

and not just from a residence perspective  but also in terms of schools, hospitals,  

play01:48

offices, retail, hotels,  movie theatres and much more

play01:51

And it’s not that companies are  not looking at this mega-trend

play01:55

For example Max Healthcare very recently  acquired the 550-bed Sahara Hospital in  

play02:01

Lucknow and notice some of the things  they said in their latest earnings call

play02:05

Firstly, Lucknow is going to be a metro soon  with massive infrastructure and connectivity

play02:10

UP’s population is the size of Europe

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And inspite of all this and in the words of Mr.  Abhay Soi, the Chairman & Managing Director,  

play02:18

the entire city of Lucknow has just  one-and-a-half corporate hospitals right now

play02:23

So just like Lucknow, we have people migrating  to Delhi, Mumbai, Bengaluru, Kochi, Ahmedabad,  

play02:29

Chennai etc. which means more roads, more  bridges, the metro, airports, cars, bikes,  

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water management solution and ofcourse  ancillaries like cement, metal, paints,  

play02:39

fans, lights, wires, pipes, ceramics  etc. will all be very much in demand

play02:45

Infact the setting up of multiple Smart  City projects is another shot-in-the-arm  

play02:49

and although there is a lot of work to be done  here what this means is that urbanization will  

play02:54

not be confined to the mega-cities alone  but will move to tier 2 and even tier 3  

play02:59

locations including Coimbatore, Indore, Jaipur,  Srinagar, Nagpur, Surat, Visakhapatnam etc.

play03:05

So urbanization is a huge multi-year,  a multi-decade theme and if I have to  

play03:10

pin down a few sub-themes then I’ll  certainly want to focus my research  

play03:14

on the big home loan providers as the  demand for housing is very likely to  

play03:18

supercede supply and land prices are  anyways headed in only one direction

play03:23

Secondly, the urbanization trend augurs  well for construction & infrastructure  

play03:27

development companies like PNC Infratech,  KNR Constructions, Ashoka Buildcon etc.

play03:34

I’ll look at companies in the electrical  consumer durables space like Havells,  

play03:38

Crompton, Dixon, Bluestar etc. with much  interest as the demand for fans, lights,  

play03:43

air conditioning, refrigeration,  geysers continues to move up

play03:47

And ofcourse hospitals because this is one segment  that is always in demand a.k.a. a defensive stock  

play03:53

and unfortunately, our medical infrastructure  has not kept pace with our rising population

play03:58

So these four areas – home loan  providers, construction companies,  

play04:02

consumer durables and hospitals is where I would  want to participate within the urbanization space

play04:08

The next big trend is around the climate  or might I say climate-related businesses  

play04:13

or climate-tech as it’s commonly  called which includes businesses  

play04:16

that are primarily focussed on  the restoration of our environment

play04:20

Now the good thing is that many countries and  

play04:22

governments are formulating policies and  supporting domestic industries to meet  

play04:26

their respective climate goals  over the next 20, 30, 40 years

play04:30

Specific to India, we’ve made this promise  of achieving net-zero carbon emissions by  

play04:35

2070 .. which is definitely a challenging  target but it’s also a mega-opportunity for  

play04:41

Indian businesses with this climate theme being  built upon a number of “big” sub-themes such as  

play04:47

renewable energy, waste management, sustainable  agriculture, water conservation, energy  

play04:52

efficient construction, clean air technologies,  electric vehicles, carbon capture and a lot more

play04:58

Infact there are themes within sub-themes and  in that context, green energy - which is a  

play05:03

subset of renewable energy - is demonstrating  significant promise and just a few weeks back,  

play05:08

Adani Green Energy Limited announced the  development of a 30 GigaWatt renewable  

play05:14

energy plant in the Kutch area of Gujarat  at a cost of 20 billion dollars and over an  

play05:19

area of 538 square kilometers making  it the world’s largest power plant

play05:25

So as a country we are making progress on the  climate front and while the renewable energy  

play05:29

sector has attracted major investments in the  last 7 to 8 years as the world’s 3rd largest  

play05:35

energy consuming country and with a stated  goal of generating 500 GigaWatts of non-fossil  

play05:41

fuel-based energy by 2030, there’s still a  long way to go and as of February of 2024,  

play05:48

the country stands at about 190  GigaWatts of installed capacity

play05:53

So as investors, we can expect more investments  to come in from private and government enterprises  

play05:58

together with better economics, stronger  policies and it’s not just energy companies;  

play06:02

I expect this climate theme to support  the entire ecosystem which includes:

play06:07

Power generation

play06:08

It’s transmission and storage

play06:10

The growing thrust towards electric vehicles

play06:13

Pipes, cables and wires

play06:15

Smart grids, batteries and  energy-efficient devices

play06:18

The manufacturing of solar panels, wind turbines

play06:21

Very importantly the securing of raw  materials like lithium, cobalt, nickel etc.

play06:27

And ofcourse continued research leading up to the  

play06:31

building of scalable, sustainable &  efficient green energy infrastructure

play06:36

The stocks associated with this megatrend  so the likes of Waaree Renewables,  

play06:40

Adani Green Energy, Gensol, NHPC, SJVN, IREDA,  

play06:45

Inox Wind etc. had a stellar 2023 with most of  these stocks delivering 100% or more in profits

play06:52

This rally was fueled by the government’s  ambitious targets and positive investor  

play06:56

sentiments and honestly, there is  little evidence to suggest that  

play07:00

this rally will not continue for  a few more years, if not decades

play07:04

Infact, this reminds me of something  Jeff Bezos of Amazon said when he was  

play07:08

asked a question on “what’s going  to change in the next 10 years?”

play07:12

And I’m just paraphrasing here but  Mr. Bezos’s response was more on  

play07:16

understanding “what is NOT going  to change in the next 10 years?”

play07:19

For instance, is the customer  likely to want a higher price or  

play07:22

a lower price in the future and I’m  sure we all know the answer to that

play07:26

Similarly, is the customer likely  to want a faster delivery or a  

play07:30

slower delivery in the future? - and  again, we know the answer to that

play07:34

Mr. Bezos’s point was simple – it’s so  much easier to make a strategy when we  

play07:38

think in terms of things that aren’t going  to change in the future and in our context,  

play07:43

if you’re an investor who has a vision  for the future, then do train your eyes  

play07:47

on climate tech because there is no way  our planet is getting cleaner on its own

play07:54

When the Digital India campaign was  launched by Prime Minister Modi in  

play07:57

July of 2015, I’m guessing there  were more skeptics than believers

play08:02

“Jumla” that’s the term I think that  was used which means “empty promises”

play08:06

But that was then and fast-forward to today  – me, you, we’re all enjoying the benefits  

play08:11

of high-speed Internet, digital  delivery of government services,  

play08:14

Bharat Net, Startup India, biometric identity  cards, a 5G network, UMANG, digi-locker,  

play08:22

Bharat Bill Payment System, UPI, e-Sampark,  e-Panchayat and many other initiatives that  

play08:27

has made India a major digitization hub  and with it comes a world of opportunities

play08:33

For example and the heart of these efforts is  the so-called “India Stack” which is simply  

play08:38

a series of government-backed APIs  that offers access to government IDs,  

play08:43

payment networks and secured  data to any third party

play08:47

Startups and companies then build apps on top of  this digital infrastructure to provide consumers  

play08:53

with seamless access to everything from welfare  payments to loan applications which has helped  

play08:58

create companies like PayTM and PhonePe and  even social initiatives like Namma Yatri  

play09:04

which is an open-source ride-sharing  app built using the ONDC framework

play09:09

For investors, there is a lot to  keep a track of when it comes to  

play09:12

the digitization theme and a choice of  sub-themes is never a bad thing to have

play09:17

So firstly, there is the IT Services sector with  established and steadily growing companies and  

play09:23

what one needs to look out for is their pace of  transition from just body-shopping or outsourcing  

play09:29

to a more digital, AI & automation-driven  adopter of newer technologies and revenue streams

play09:34

Then secondly there are the ecommerce players  who have picked up pace in the listings market  

play09:39

and although only a few of them are profitable  but they are becoming profitable and with more  

play09:44

companies looking to access the capital  market, so companies like Swiggy, OYO,  

play09:48

Lenskart, Ola Electric etc. this is one  area investors would want to keep an eye on

play09:54

A third related offshoot of digitization is the  range of specialized services that come with it,  

play09:59

so things like data engineering, cloud  computing, mobility, tech consulting,  

play10:04

design services, analytics, cybersecurity etc.

play10:08

And a final lookout is for  companies that are building  

play10:10

digital infrastructure in the form  of networks, satellite technology,  

play10:14

semiconductors, data centres, fiber  optic cables, wifi technology etc.

play10:19

So these are a few promising sub-themes; I  know this is a vast topic but digitization is  

play10:25

definitely a megatrend that isn’t going away  anytime in the foreseeable future and as a  

play10:30

country, India and Indian companies are likely to  be leaders in this field over the next few years

play10:35

We’ve all heard of the phrase “health is  wealth” and contextually, healthcare is  

play10:40

a massive opportunity in India with a current  market size of about 180 billion dollars which  

play10:46

in rupee terms comes to about 15 lakh  crores of expenses that we Indians are  

play10:51

incurring every year on hospitals, pharmacies,  diagnostics, insurance, medical devices etc.

play10:57

It’s a sector that’s expected to grow by atleast  12% per annum over the next 10 years and as an  

play11:03

investor and in my opinion, healthcare has  to have a decent weightage in your portfolio

play11:09

It’s something I’m very bullish on and some of the  

play11:12

sub-themes within healthcare that one  should definitely consider includes:

play11:16

The proliferation of single specialty hospitals  

play11:19

and specialty clinics especially in the  field of ophthalmology, mother & child,  

play11:24

IVF and also oncology and we’re already seeing  the emergence of providers with an asset-light  

play11:29

operating model that offers better EBITDA  margins and have a shorter payback period

play11:35

Then are the multi-specialty hospitals  that’ll continue to attract interest as  

play11:39

there will always be a strong fundamental  demand for them and do watch out for market  

play11:44

consolidation and a greater spread  towards Tier-2 and Tier-3 markets

play11:48

A third promising sub-theme is around the  manufacturing of medical equipment and  

play11:53

consumables with the entire make-in-India  thing and a growing focus on quality,  

play11:58

affordable pricing, the availability  of R&D workforce and ofcourse exports

play12:02

Healthcare technology is definitely  on the rise thanks to an increased  

play12:07

focus on digitising operations, remote  technology and an increasing appetite for  

play12:12

online platforms for consultation, preventive  healthcare, diagnosis and nutrition management

play12:18

And the fifth and final sub-theme  I would watch out for is around  

play12:21

diagnostics with many listed and unlisted  players looking to merge their expertise,  

play12:26

accelerate patient reach and expand their  product portfolios to offer one-stop solutions

play12:31

So these 5 sub-themes within the larger  healthcare framework look really promising  

play12:35

to me for the coming decade and this is where  a lot of the action and investment is headed

play12:41

I would really encourage you to go through  the annual reports and the earnings calls  

play12:45

of some of these companies that I’ve listed  here to get a better understanding of where  

play12:48

healthcare sector is headed and believe  me, you’ll learn a lot from this exercise

play12:54

The fifth mega-theme is the financialisation  of household savings which is a fanciful  

play12:59

way of saying that people are moving away from  the traditional assets like real estate and gold

play13:04

It’s a trend that’s only accelerating in  India and as stated in a 2022 report by  

play13:09

CRISIL while the total assets of the  managed investment industry in India  

play13:13

stand at 135 lakh crores this number is  likely to more than double by 2027 and  

play13:19

if I were to assume a further continuation  at an 18% growth then the country’s managed  

play13:25

investment AUM would rise up to 1,000  lakh crores or 12 trillion dollars by 2034

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My point is – financialization of household  savings is a big theme and while much has  

play13:37

happened in the investment landscape  over the last 7,8 years there is a  

play13:41

growing feeling that the industry has barely  scratched the surface given the fact that:

play13:46

The country’s population is still young & growing

play13:48

The penetration of financial products esp.  wealth products is still on the lower side

play13:53

Incomes are rising

play13:54

There’s a definite increase in financial inclusion

play13:57

The economy is getting digitized

play13:59

And now there is more awareness about capital  market products thanks to influencers like us

play14:05

We’ve already seen a massive jump in demat  accounts, in mutual fund AUMs and also NPS  

play14:10

over the years and in that context, the sub-themes  one should take a special interest in includes:

play14:15

The banking and NBFC sector which grew by  130% in the last 10 years as compared to the  

play14:21

previous 65 years .. and it’s widely expected  to grow by 14% per annum for the next 10 years

play14:27

The country’s capital markets are likely  to benefit big from the financialization of  

play14:31

savings .. and this includes the two stocks  exchanges, the BSE and NSE and also their  

play14:36

proxies in the form of depository institutions,  registry agents and credit rating companies

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The asset management companies, mutual  funds, PMS, wealth advisors etc.

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Well, these guys will be the big  winners and although there are  

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some 50 lakh crores of AUM in mutual  funds, it’s not hard to believe that  

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this is just the beginning and there’s  a lot more action that’s expected here

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And finally as individuals,  as we get more aware and the  

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proportion of people who are above  60 years of age rises in society,  

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the retirement fund management industry  will become all the more relevant in  

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terms of the number of products, the AUM and  ofcourse the number of consumers availing it

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Our sixth and final mega-theme is  manufacturing and for what it’s worth,  

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India is definitely witnessing a significant  shift in its manufacturing dynamics

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Gone are the days when we were known for  textiles, handicrafts and agro-based industries  

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as today’s India shows a growing focus on  technology, innovation and skilled labour

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In numbers, India's manufacturing market  is poised to reach 1 trillion dollars in  

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the next couple of years with Gujarat  becoming India's manufacturing powerhouse,  

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followed by Maharashtra and then Tamil Nadu

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In terms of percentage, while manufacturing today  contributes 17% to India’s GDP, it is poised to  

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rise up to 21% in the next 6, 7 years thanks to  growing FDI inflows which reflects global investor  

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confidence, the government's "Make in India"  initiative, policies such as the production-linked  

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incentive i.e. the PLI scheme for sectors  like automobiles, electronics and textiles  

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and ofcourse, enabling functions like the ease of  doing business, logistics, 24x7 electricity etc.

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Again as investors,  

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since we’re talking about tailwinds and  sub-themes here so from what I’ve read:

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There’s a larger focus around  10,12 sectors so not everything,  

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just a few industries which includes  automotive & auto components, capital goods,  

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construction equipment, cement, chemicals,  fertilisers, pharmaceuticals, electronics,  

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white goods, machine tools, metal  products, textiles and paper

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In terms of emerging sectors, one  should look at semiconductors,  

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agri-tech and waste management  as these look rather promising

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Other technology-enabled areas which are  gathering a lot of attention are AI integration,  

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3D printing, Internet of Things, advanced  material sciences and sustainable practices

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And very importantly, there are companies  in the logistics sectors across road, rail,  

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ports and waterways that have become  super investment-worthy by virtue of  

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being one of the biggest enablers for  the manufacturing industry in India

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So this was something new

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I normally don’t talk about macro stuff in  my videos or the general economy per se but  

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I must confess that looking at things  from a top-down perspective does help

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And it really doesn’t matter whether you’re  looking at it from individual stock perspective  

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or maybe from a sector perspective for which there  is no dearth of mutual funds, ETFs, smallcases,  

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AIFs, PMS and even ULIP schemes that can be  investing into to capture the thematic opportunity

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The point of this exercise and my  own belief it that if a long-term  

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investor focusses on just these 6  areas that we’ve discussed today  

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then I’m certain there’s a lot of money to  be made here over the next 5, 10, 15 years

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I sincerely hope you liked this presentation,  it helped you organize your thoughts

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Do share this video with others, like this video,  

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signup to the newsletter  and I’ll see you very soon

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Until then

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