NATO alert on potential Russian strikes | German defence ministry mulls NATO war scenarios | WION

Summary

In the wake of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, European concerns are mounting over the possibility of an expanded Russian offensive into Europe in the coming decade, potentially without U.S. support. NATO's military logistics center commander in Germany, alongside U.S. and Dutch generals, warns of possible Russian strikes across Europe, including civilian and military infrastructure. Amidst these fears, Germany prepares for Russian cyber attacks and sabotage, while the Ukrainian president fears escalation into a third world war without Western support. Visiting fellow Matthew Drön discusses the legitimacy of these concerns, the impact of potential U.S. political shifts, and strategies for European and Baltic states to deter Russian aggression.

Takeaways

• 😨 European generals and officials worry Russia could expand offensive into Europe over next decade if conflict in Ukraine escalates further
• 😰 Germany already planning for potential Russian cyber attacks and sabotage against German targets
• 😒 Ukraine president fears conflict could spark WW3 without more Western support against Russia
• 😕 Diminishing US military support to Ukraine possible under Republican Congress, causing concerns in Europe
• 😟 NATO military planners preparing regional defense plans across Europe in response to renewed Russian threat
• 🤔 Russia less likely to attack NATO in short term, but could target weaker non-NATO countries near Ukraine
• ⚔️ Baltic states harnessing NATO support to bolster defenses against potential Russian aggression
• 😎 NATO staging massive military exercises across Europe with up to 100,000 troops
• 😥 European allies recognize they may need to handle own security without US help if Trump elected
• 😡 Russian calculus could change if NATO unity weakened under Trump presidency

Q & A

What does Matthew Drown say is the main factor raising fears among European nations about having to handle their own security?

The prospect of Donald Trump being elected president of the United States, given his previous statements questioning the U.S. commitment to NATO.

What warning has Lieutenant General Alexander Saul Frank of NATO given to allies?

He has urged allies to steel themselves for potential Russian strikes on targets across Europe, including in Germany.

What types of Russian strikes are NATO generals worried about?

They are worried Russia could strike deep behind front lines at civilian and military infrastructure, as they have done in Ukraine.

What understanding does Drown say exists between the West and Russia regarding direct attacks?

There is a tacit understanding that the West would not directly target Russia, and Russia would not directly target NATO countries, to keep escalation under control.

What are some ways the Baltic states have prepared for potential Russian aggression?

They have harnessed the NATO framework for reinforcement and reassurance, including the deployment of NATO tactical groups and participating in military exercises.

How might a weakened NATO change Russia's calculus according to Drown?

It would likely make NATO less deterrent to Russia, though it may not precipitate direct attacks on NATO.

What NATO plans has Drown said have been adapted for new Russian threats?

NATO has adopted regional defense plans to adapt to the threats posed by Russia and others.

What is NATO's focus now that Russia is on a war footing?

NATO is focused back on the Russian threat after searching for purpose in the decades since the Cold War.

What large NATO military exercise is Drown referring to?

He is referring to Steadfast Defender 2024, NATO's largest military exercise deploying up to 100,000 troops across Europe.

What action does the Ukrainian president want from Germany?

He wants Germany to use its economic power to gather more support for Ukraine.