NATO alert on potential Russian strikes | German defence ministry mulls NATO war scenarios | WION

Summary

In the wake of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, European concerns are mounting over the possibility of an expanded Russian offensive into Europe in the coming decade, potentially without U.S. support. NATO's military logistics center commander in Germany, alongside U.S. and Dutch generals, warns of possible Russian strikes across Europe, including civilian and military infrastructure. Amidst these fears, Germany prepares for Russian cyber attacks and sabotage, while the Ukrainian president fears escalation into a third world war without Western support. Visiting fellow Matthew Drön discusses the legitimacy of these concerns, the impact of potential U.S. political shifts, and strategies for European and Baltic states to deter Russian aggression.

Takeaways

• 😨 European generals and officials worry Russia could expand offensive into Europe over next decade if conflict in Ukraine escalates further
• 😰 Germany already planning for potential Russian cyber attacks and sabotage against German targets
• 😒 Ukraine president fears conflict could spark WW3 without more Western support against Russia
• 😕 Diminishing US military support to Ukraine possible under Republican Congress, causing concerns in Europe
• 😟 NATO military planners preparing regional defense plans across Europe in response to renewed Russian threat
• 🤔 Russia less likely to attack NATO in short term, but could target weaker non-NATO countries near Ukraine
• ⚔️ Baltic states harnessing NATO support to bolster defenses against potential Russian aggression
• 😎 NATO staging massive military exercises across Europe with up to 100,000 troops
• 😥 European allies recognize they may need to handle own security without US help if Trump elected
• 😡 Russian calculus could change if NATO unity weakened under Trump presidency

Q & A

What does Matthew Drown say is the main factor raising fears among European nations about having to handle their own security?

The prospect of Donald Trump being elected president of the United States, given his previous statements questioning the U.S. commitment to NATO.

What warning has Lieutenant General Alexander Saul Frank of NATO given to allies?

He has urged allies to steel themselves for potential Russian strikes on targets across Europe, including in Germany.

What types of Russian strikes are NATO generals worried about?

They are worried Russia could strike deep behind front lines at civilian and military infrastructure, as they have done in Ukraine.

What understanding does Drown say exists between the West and Russia regarding direct attacks?

There is a tacit understanding that the West would not directly target Russia, and Russia would not directly target NATO countries, to keep escalation under control.

What are some ways the Baltic states have prepared for potential Russian aggression?

They have harnessed the NATO framework for reinforcement and reassurance, including the deployment of NATO tactical groups and participating in military exercises.

How might a weakened NATO change Russia's calculus according to Drown?

It would likely make NATO less deterrent to Russia, though it may not precipitate direct attacks on NATO.

What NATO plans has Drown said have been adapted for new Russian threats?

NATO has adopted regional defense plans to adapt to the threats posed by Russia and others.

What is NATO's focus now that Russia is on a war footing?

NATO is focused back on the Russian threat after searching for purpose in the decades since the Cold War.

What large NATO military exercise is Drown referring to?

He is referring to Steadfast Defender 2024, NATO's largest military exercise deploying up to 100,000 troops across Europe.

What action does the Ukrainian president want from Germany?

He wants Germany to use its economic power to gather more support for Ukraine.

Outlines

00:00

😕 Concerns over Putin's territorial ambitions in Europe

The first paragraph discusses concerns among European nations that Russian President Vladimir Putin may expand his offensive into Europe over the next 10 years after his full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. There are worries that European nations may have to face Russian forces without US support. Some NATO generals have urged preparedness for potential Russian strikes across Europe, including in Germany.

05:01

👀 Factors causing worry among NATO military leadership

The second paragraph analyzes factors causing worry among NATO military leadership about having to handle Europe's security without US support. This is mainly due to prospects of Donald Trump being re-elected US President given his previous statements questioning US commitments to NATO and not wanting involvement in protecting European allies.

Keywords

💡Geopolitical catastrophe

This term refers to an event or series of events that drastically changes the political and geographical landscape on a global scale. Vladimir Putin described the dissolution of the Soviet Empire as such a catastrophe, highlighting its impact on Russia's global influence and security dynamics. This concept is crucial in understanding the broader context of Russia's actions and motivations, particularly its invasion of Ukraine in 2022, as it suggests a desire to reclaim lost prestige or territory.

💡Full-scale invasion

A full-scale invasion is a large-scale military action where one nation invades another with the intent of occupation or annexation. The script mentions Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, highlighting a significant escalation in regional tensions and a direct challenge to international order and security. This event is central to the video's theme, illustrating the immediate and potential long-term security concerns for Europe.

💡NATO

NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) is a military alliance between North American and European countries, established in 1949 for mutual defense against aggression. The script references NATO's concerns over Russia's actions and the implications for European security, emphasizing the alliance's role in coordinating defense efforts against potential Russian expansion into Europe.

💡Cyber attacks

Cyber attacks involve attempts by individuals or nations to damage or disrupt the computer systems of a target, often for strategic or military advantages. The script mentions Germany's preparations for potential Russian cyber attacks, highlighting the multifaceted nature of modern warfare and the importance of cybersecurity in national defense strategies.

💡Third World War

This term denotes a hypothetical global conflict succeeding the First and Second World Wars. The Ukrainian president's fear of the Ukrainian conflict escalating into a Third World War if Russian aggression is not contained underscores the potential for regional conflicts to spiral into global crises, emphasizing the critical need for international support and cooperation to prevent such an outcome.

💡Military aid

Military aid refers to assistance provided by one nation to another in the form of weapons, equipment, training, or financial support for defense purposes. The script discusses concerns over potentially diminishing military aid from the US to Ukraine due to political opposition, highlighting the significance of such support for Ukraine's defense against Russian aggression.

💡Russian aggression

This phrase refers to hostile or confrontational actions by Russia, particularly its military interventions in neighboring countries. The script's focus on Russian aggression towards Ukraine and potential threats to Europe illustrates the ongoing security challenges posed by Russia's foreign policy and military ambitions.

💡Economic heft

Economic heft refers to the influence or power a country has due to its economic strength. The Ukrainian president's urge for Germany to use its economic heft to gather more support for Ukraine emphasizes the role of economic measures, alongside military aid, in international diplomacy and conflict resolution.

💡Vulnerable nations

Vulnerable nations are countries that are at high risk of external aggression due to their geographical location, political instability, or military weakness. The script discusses measures that such nations, particularly those in Europe and the Baltics, can take to avoid or avert conflict with Russia, stressing the importance of preparedness and alliance support in enhancing national security.

💡Military exercise

A military exercise is a training operation where military forces practice their skills in a simulated environment. The script mentions NATO's largest military exercise, 'steadfast Defender 2024', as part of its preparation against potential threats. This illustrates the alliance's efforts to maintain readiness and deter aggression through visible demonstrations of capability and unity.

Highlights

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Transcripts

Russian President Vladimir Putin once

proclaimed the dissolution of the Soviet

Empire as the greatest geopolitical

catastrophe of the 20th century but then

came Russia's fullscale invasion of

Ukraine in 2022 concerns are now Rising

among European nations that Putin could

expand his offensive father into Europe

over the coming decade and they might

have to face his forces without us

support in an interview with the times

Lieutenant General Alexander Saul Frank

the commander of NATO's military

logistic Center in Southwest Germany

urged allies to steal

itself for potential Russian strikes on

targets across Europe including in

Germany other generals from the United

States and the Netherlands are also

worried that in this scenario the

Russian would strike deep behind their

front lines on the civilian and Military

infrastructure however These Warnings

are partly based on the war in Ukraine

where Russia has lost launched heavy air

and missile strikes well away from the

battle lines in retaliation the

ukrainians have also knocked out

ammunition dumps command posts and fuel

depos hundreds of miles into Russian

occupied territory meanwhile over the

weekend German newspaper built reported

that Germany's Armed Forces had already

started planning for the eventuality of

Russian cyber attacks and sabotage

against German targets the document

outlined a potential to conflict between

Russia and the North Atlantic Treaty

Alliance however specific data on the

number and movements of NATO troops are

withheld for security reasons on the

other hand the Ukrainian president is

fearing the Ukrainian conflict will

escalate into a third world war if

Russian aggression is not contained with

support from kiev's Western allies he

also urged Germany to use its economic

heft to gather more support for Ukraine

am made the prospects of potentially

diminishing military aid from the US due

to Republican objections in the

Congress Matthew

drawn is a visiting fellow at the center

for strategic and International Studies

he's now joining us live from Washington

DC Mr drawn thank you very much for

making time for us and welcome to weon

Wild is

one thanks for having me are the

concerns raised by European nations that

Putin could expand his offensive f into

Europe over the coming decade Justified

is there a possibility that even that

could

happen well if we're talking over uh the

coming decades uh yes certainly this is

something that at least if you're a

sound military planner you have to think

about and and prepare uh now on the

short term I think this is a less likely

I mean if you're a rational decision

maker in Moscow although we have seen

some irrational decisions in in in the

past but if you're already struggling to

maintain the the front line with the

ukrainians here I'm not sure you really

want to involve uh NATO and and uh its

its military power uh into the conflict

You' rather probably seek uh diversion

or destruction and maybe targets uh

softer uh let's say softer targets or

weaker countries uh in the vicinity of

Ukraine uh such as m

or

Georgia uh but yeah the on the short

term I I don't see any extension of the

of the conflict there's been an let's

say tcid understanding between the west

and and Russia that the West would not

directly Target Russia and that Russia

would not directly Target uh NATO NATO

countries to keep escalation under

control uh for both sides MH Mr drawn

now that you've mentioned the military

what could have been the stalking factor

or for this warry or fear among generals

and also the military allian of NATO

what could have caused that

worry well I think uh you don't really I

mean you can look East but you should

also look West if you're European and of

course the the rising Prospect of uh

Donald Trump being elected as the new uh

president of the United States given its

previous

uh statements on on NATO specifically

and on the war in Ukraine saying that he

would solve the issue in 24 hours or his

previous comments that he would uh pull

out of of NATO that his it doesn't feel

that that the US has uh to to get

involved to protect uh European allies

and partners I think this is probably

the the main factor that rises fears or

at least uh that European capitals are

now coming to terms of the fact that

they might have to handle the security

of the continent by themselves uh in the

coming in the coming years and and we're

talking the elections are in November uh

this year so this is not a so far away

uh future so I guess this this also

helps European capitals to to think

about what should be their

responsibility how they how they can be

prepared for a scenario because of

course the fact that NATO is

weend uh would change the uh Russia's

calculus and although it might not

precipitate Russia to attack NATO uh I'm

sure it will I mean certainly if you're

a Russian decision maker it would make

NATO less uh deterrent probably okay if

that's the case what can the so-called

vulnerable nations in Europe and also

the baltics do to avoid or even avert an

imminent conflict with Russia

well at least the Baltic states uh have

been the the the most uh prepared and

the most aware of the Russian threat and

they have been warning the rest of

Europe for years and so uh they are

still I mean small countries but they

have harnessed the the NATO framework to

to be reinforced to be reassured so you

have now um tactical groups that are uh

deployed under the enhanced forward PR

of NATO in those States and in other

Eastern Eastern European countries uh

now you're seeing also the the biggest

uh military exercise from NATO being uh

deployed in in in several parts of

Europe from the north to the east uh

with up to 990,000 troops it's called a

steadfast Defender

2024 plus NATO has adopted some what

they call Regional plans uh to to adapt

the new threats uh posed by Russia and

others um to to Europe so I mean NATO is

uh has been searching for its its

purpose for uh for the past two decades

but now that Russia is on the war

footing it it's really back focused on

the on on the Russian threat and so

there's a lot going on of course not

publicly but from the military planners

are fully uh uh hands hand on Deck all

right I've been talking to to Matthew

drawn who is a visiting fellow at the

center for strategic and International

Studies Mr drawn thank you very much for

talking to weon Wild is one today thanks

to you thanks for having me weon is now

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