Perspective : India's Resilient Economy | 11 January, 2023

Summary

The video script discusses India's economy, highlighting its resilience amid global economic uncertainties. Experts from various fields analyze the World Bank's prediction of India's growth at 6.6% in 2023-24, attributing this to strong domestic consumption, prudent fiscal management, and effective handling of external shocks. They also emphasize the importance of the upcoming Union budget, expecting a conservative approach with a focus on climate change initiatives and welfare spending, while addressing the challenges posed by global recession fears and inflationary pressures.

Takeaways

• 📈 The World Bank predicts India's economy to grow at a rate of 6.6 percent in the fiscal year 2023-24, making it the fastest-growing economy among the seven largest emerging market and developing economies.
• 🌐 The key challenge for global policy makers is to mitigate the risk of a global recession, particularly one that could result from rapid and synchronized monetary policy tightening causing financial stress.
• 🇮🇳 Prime Minister Narendra Modi highlights that credible global economic institutions have unprecedented confidence in India's economy.
• 📊 The National Statistical Office (NSO) of India expects the economy to grow at 7 percent in the current financial year 2022-23.
• 💨 Domestic headwinds in India are minimal, but global headwinds such as fluctuating natural gas prices and potential recessions in other economies could impact India's exports.
• 💼 The Indian government is balancing its budget prudently and is not taking any risky steps, with an expected fiscal deficit of 6.4 percent.
• 📉 Despite the potential for global recession, India's domestic economy is performing well, with core industries and agriculture showing resilience.
• 🌍 India has managed geopolitical situations like the Ukraine war effectively, keeping energy and food prices under control and maintaining macroeconomic stability.
• 📊 India's demographic factors, including a large and young population, contribute to its economic resilience and potential for sustained growth.
• 💹 India's FDI inflows are at a record high, reflecting global confidence in the Indian market and its relative insulation from external shocks.
• 🏦 The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has managed inflation well, and the growth has not been significantly impacted by monetary tightening policies.

Q & A

What is the World Bank's prediction for India's economic growth rate in the fiscal year 2023-24?

The World Bank predicts that the Indian economy is expected to grow at a rate of 6.6 percent in the fiscal year 2023-24.

How does the World Bank view India's position among the largest emerging market and developing economies?

According to the World Bank, India is expected to be the fastest-growing economy among the seven largest emerging market and developing economies.

What is the main challenge for policymakers around the world as mentioned in the script?

The main challenge for policymakers is to lower the likelihood of a global recession, especially one that could result from rapid and synchronous monetary policy tightening causing widespread financial stress.

What confidence does Prime Minister Narendra Modi mention about India in the Madhya Pradesh Global Investor Summit?

Prime Minister Narendra Modi stated that institutions and credible voices tracking the global economy have unprecedented confidence in India.

What is the National Statistical Office's (NSO) first Advance estimate of economic growth for the current financial year 2022-23?

The NSO expects the Indian economy to grow at seven percent for the financial year 2022-23.

What are the two major challenges for the Indian economy as outlined by Mr. Bhattacharji in the script?

The two major challenges are the global headwinds, particularly the fluctuation in natural gas prices, and the potential decline in exports due to a global recession or near recession conditions affecting trading partners like the USA, EU, and Africa.

What measures is the Government of India taking to manage its economy amidst global economic uncertainties?

The Government of India is balancing its budget, avoiding risky fiscal steps, and expecting a fiscal deficit of 6.4 percent. It is also rationalizing expenditure and subsidies, and direct and indirect taxes are rising according to budget projections.

How does Mr. Anand Singh Bhal describe India's resilience in the face of global economic challenges?

Mr. Bhal attributes India's resilience to effective management of fiscal prudence, macroeconomic fundamentals, industry performance, and agricultural stability. India has managed energy prices and supports well, and its domestic production is doing reasonably well.

What does Mr. Dharmendra Kumar highlight about India's economic growth prospects and the role of demographic factors?

Mr. Kumar emphasizes that India's growth prospects are optimistic, with international institutions like the IMF and ADB also predicting high growth rates. Demographic factors, such as India becoming the most populous and youngest country, contribute to this optimism.

What is the general expectation for the upcoming Union Budget of India as discussed by the panel?

The panel expects a 'boring' budget that is fiscally conservative, with no major policy fireworks but possibly some tweaks to support larger economic growth. The budget is expected to focus on welfare spending, especially in rural areas, and to be fiscally prudent.

What sectors and policy areas does the panel suggest will be significant in India's upcoming Union Budget?

The panel suggests that climate change will be a significant area, with expectations of a large package of measures on climate-related developments. Other sectors to watch include infrastructure, logistics, agriculture, education, and regulatory architecture for capital markets and data privacy.

Outlines

00:00

📈 India's Resilience Amid Global Economic Gloom

The script discusses India's robust economy, which is expected to grow at 6.6% in the fiscal year 2023-24, as predicted by the World Bank. Despite a grim global economic outlook, India is set to be the fastest-growing economy among the seven largest emerging markets. The key challenge for global policy makers is to avoid a recession, especially due to rapid and synchronized monetary policy tightening. Prime Minister Narendra Modi highlights the confidence global economic institutions have in India. The National Statistical Office (NSO) forecasts a 7% growth for the current financial year 2022-23. The discussion revolves around understanding India's economic resilience and the challenges it faces due to global economic conditions.

05:02

🌐 Geopolitical Stability and Economic Resilience

The panelists in the script debate the factors contributing to India's economic resilience, such as effective management of geopolitical situations like the Ukraine war, which did not significantly impact India's economy. India's energy and food prices remained controlled, and fiscal prudence helped manage inflation. The country's macroeconomic fundamentals have been strong, with various sectors like industry and agriculture performing well. The discussion also touches on the importance of India's domestic market and regulatory architecture, which has been adjusted to support industrial policy and attract foreign direct investment (FDI), contributing to India's economic stability.

10:04

💼 Fiscal Prudence and the Upcoming Budget

The script emphasizes the importance of India's conservative budgeting approach, which has been instrumental in maintaining economic stability. The government is expected to continue this trend, focusing on a balanced budget without significant expenditure increases. The upcoming budget is anticipated to be fiscally conservative, encouraging patient capital like FDI from pension and insurance funds. The government aims to ensure fiscal responsibility while funding welfare programs and state requirements. The discussion also suggests that the budget will be 'boring' in the sense that it will not introduce drastic policy changes but will focus on prudent fiscal management.

15:05

🛠️ Policy Tweaks and the Path to Sustained Growth

The panelists agree that while the budget is an important policy vehicle, many key policy initiatives are introduced outside of it, reflecting the maturity of India's policy-making process. The government is expected to maintain fiscal prudence, which has been beneficial during post-COVID recovery. They also discuss the potential for policy tweaks in the budget to support the economy's growth trajectory. The panelists express optimism about India's ability to handle global challenges such as the pandemic, supply chain disruptions, and energy shocks, positioning the country for resilient growth.

20:07

🌿 Climate Change and Future Economic Measures

The script concludes with a focus on climate change as a significant area for future policy and investment. The government is expected to announce measures related to climate change, which will impact investment, employment, and global environmental efforts. The establishment of sovereign green funds and the anticipation of further climate-related policy announcements suggest a positive direction for India's economy. The panelists also mention the need to monitor subsidies for cooking gas and fertilizers, which could pose risks to the economy, and express confidence in India's preparedness for future challenges.

Keywords

💡Resilient Economy

A resilient economy is one that can withstand shocks and maintain stable growth. In the video, India's economy is described as resilient due to its ability to sustain growth despite global economic uncertainties. The World Bank report mentioned in the script anticipates India to be the fastest-growing economy, highlighting its robustness against external challenges.

💡Global Recession

A global recession refers to a period of economic decline affecting most countries across the world. The script discusses the World Bank's warning about the potential for a global recession, particularly due to rapid and synchronized monetary policy tightening, which could lead to widespread financial stress. This concept is central to understanding the challenges faced by economies worldwide, including India.

💡Monetary Policy Tightening

Monetary policy tightening is when central banks raise interest rates to control inflation. In the context of the video, it is suggested that synchronized tightening by major central banks could increase the risk of a global recession. This is a key challenge for policymakers, as it can lead to financial stress and affect economic growth, including in India.

💡Fiscal Deficit

Fiscal deficit refers to the gap between a government's expenditures and revenues. The script mentions India's fiscal deficit expected to be 6.4 percent, indicating the government's borrowing needs to finance its spending. This is important for understanding the government's financial health and its ability to stimulate the economy without incurring excessive debt.

💡Inflation

Inflation is the rate at which the general level of prices for goods and services is rising, and subsequently, purchasing power is falling. The video discusses how India has managed its inflation well, which is crucial for maintaining economic stability and the purchasing power of its currency. Controlling inflation is a key aspect of India's economic policy.

💡FDI (Foreign Direct Investment)

FDI refers to an investment made by a firm or individual from one country into business interests located in another country. The script highlights the record high inflow of FDI into India, which is a sign of the country's attractiveness to foreign investors and its economic potential. FDI is a significant driver of economic growth and a testament to India's resilience.

💡Budget

A budget is a financial plan that includes all expected income and expenses for a given period. The video discusses the anticipation of India's Union Budget, which will outline the government's fiscal policies and spending priorities. The budget is a critical tool for economic management and is expected to be fiscally conservative, reflecting the government's prudent approach to经济管理.

💡Welfare Spending

Welfare spending refers to government expenditures aimed at improving the well-being of citizens, often targeting vulnerable populations. The script mentions the need for additional welfare spending, particularly in rural areas, to boost incomes and support the economy. This spending is crucial for social equity and economic stimulation.

💡Geopolitical Situation

Geopolitical situation refers to the political landscape and relationships between countries that can influence economic conditions. The video notes how India has managed the geopolitical situation, such as the war in Ukraine, without significant negative impacts on its economy. This demonstrates the country's ability to navigate complex global dynamics.

💡Climate Change

Climate change is a long-term alteration in average weather patterns. The script suggests that climate change will be a significant focus in India's budget, with measures related to green funds and environmental policies. Addressing climate change is vital for sustainable development and is increasingly a priority in economic planning.

💡Production-Linked Incentives

Production-Linked Incentives (PLI) are financial incentives provided by the government to boost domestic production in specific sectors. The video mentions PLI as part of India's industrial policy, aimed at promoting manufacturing and enhancing self-reliance. This policy tool is crucial for stimulating growth in key industries and achieving economic self-sufficiency.

Highlights

India's economy is expected to grow at a rate of 6.6 percent in the fiscal year 2023-24 according to the World Bank.

India is projected to be the fastest growing economy among the seven largest emerging market and developing economies.

The World Bank identifies the challenge of averting a global recession as a key concern for policymakers worldwide.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi expresses confidence in India's economy at the Madhya Pradesh Global Investor Summit.

The National Statistical Office (NSO) predicts a 7 percent growth for the Indian economy in the financial year 2022-23.

India's economy is resilient due to domestic factors and the absence of significant headwinds.

Global headwinds, such as fluctuations in natural gas prices, pose a challenge to India's economy.

India's exports may be affected by global recessions or near-recession conditions in other economies.

The Indian government is balancing its budget and avoiding risky fiscal policies.

India's fiscal deficit is expected to be 6.4 percent, with rationalization of expenditure and subsidies.

The lack of tailwind from abroad means India must create support domestically within its own economy.

India's geopolitical situation and management of the Ukraine war's impact on energy and food prices demonstrate its resilience.

India's macroeconomic fundamentals have remained strong, contributing to its economic resilience.

India's demographic factors, including its large and young population, are seen as advantageous for its economy.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has managed inflation well without significantly impacting economic growth.

India's budget is expected to be fiscally conservative, encouraging patient capital and FDI.

The government's conservative budgeting approach has helped India maintain economic stability.

Welfare spending, especially in rural areas, is a key area for the government's budgetary focus.

Climate change is a significant area where the government is expected to introduce measures and investment.

The government may announce measures related to domestic packaging and environmental conservation.

Subsidies for cooking gas and fertilizers are areas of fiscal risk that will be watched closely in the budget.

Transcripts

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foreign

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National and international issues today

we're going to talk about India's

resilient economy now even as it

predicted a gloomy outlook for the

global economy the World Bank has said

that Indian economy is expected to grow

at the rate of 6.6 percent in fiscal

year 2023-24 it further says that India

is expected to be the fastest growing

economy among the seven largest emerging

market and developing economies

according to the World Bank the key

challenge for policy makers around the

world is to lower the likelihood of a

global recession especially one that

could result from Rapid and synchronous

monetary policy tightening that causes

widespread Financial stress now

addressing the madhya Pradesh Global

investor Summit on Wednesday prime

minister Narendra Modi said institutions

and credible voices that track the

global economy have unprecedented

confidence in India the national

statistical office NSO in its first

Advance estimate of economic growth for

The Current financial year that is

2022-23 expect that Indian economy will

grow at seven percent so we'll try and

understand as to what makes Indian

economy so resilient and what are the

key challenges uh given the gloomy

Outlook which the World Bank has

projected for the global economy and

what it needs to be done at uh India's

level and at Global level as well and

for more on this we joined by a

distinguished panel of experts let me

first introduce them to you beginning

with the bhattacharji here with us in

the studio Consulting editor business

standard welcome boy

we're also joined by Mr Dharmendra Kumar

he's a former executive director for

India in the world bank and Mr Anand

Singh bhal former principal economic

advisor government of India is also with

us welcome both of you gentlemen also

I'll begin with you and let's let's

start by you know uh picking up some key

highlights from that World Bank report

what it says about India other emerging

uh you know economies as well and most

interestingly about developing economies

as to how a recession is uh now

unavoidable situation in in most of them

well you know that's where the point is

the world economy this there are so many

moving parts that Frankly Speaking any

report that's uh sort of you know

looking at more than a quarter ahead is

likely to run into problem

because there's the changes are not like

you know sequence they are sort of going

up and going down and that is creating a

problem like for instance day before

yesterday Goldman Sachs has said that

Europe possibly is not going to be in

recession

so this is a problem that we have to

really handle in terms of the ability of

the economies

by looking at themselves rather than by

looking at forecasts from outside if I

look at the Indian economy what is it

that I look I will again

going into FY 23 fy24

there are no domestic headwinds

particularly accepting the private final

consumption expenditure at the lower end

of the income bracket okay the problem

that is coming along is from the global

headwinds

both the you know natural gas prices

have come down but they could Jolly will

go up because the essentially it's a

question of a trade-off

and the other thing that's happening is

when you have a recession globally in

lots of economies or near recession

condition obviously exports will not

rise

now that is the two major challenge

Indians exports to USA to EU to Africa

name it will always will be affected by

the fact that these economies are not

really pushing up

so the government of India is doing

right it's balancing its budget it's not

taking any what I should call fancy

steps its fiscal deficit is expected to

be 6.4 percent as it is predicted there

will be some rationalization of

expenditure subsidies

but there will also be the problem that

all the and and yes and the direct taxes

and indirect taxes are both Rising for

ahead of budget expectations I mean

Budget projections but the problem that

will be coming will be that there is no

uh Tailwind coming from abroad okay so

all the support has to be provided and

created by the state and the central

government domestically itself it will

have to be built within the economy

within the structure uh you know our own

indigenous structure here as well let me

bring in uh the other two panelists as

well I'll start with you uh you know uh

Mr ball uh in terms of what the report

says that's that's one part and of

course you know as shumoy was saying uh

there are various reports which keep on

coming from these rating agencies and

organizations as well

and sometimes they do uh you know make

Corrections on course also but the key

elements in terms of what the global

economy is facing and wizard with that

how we in India our economic growth is

is varying we're in a right path right

now seemingly the projections are also

pretty positive uh and that you know

comes to the question that brings us to

the question so what is making us so

resilient what is making our economy so

resilient

this is a globalized world it's almost

like a global village

and India took on the geopolitical

situation very well the

war in Ukraine didn't affect it too

badly uh energy and food prices stayed

within control these developed countries

which went in for heavy retail inflation

which they were not used to in India

thanks to managing its fiscal side so

fiscal Prudence marriage managed its

inflation well

and the macroeconomic fundamentals of

the economy have been resilient and

they're standing up to the test of time

so industry is doing reasonably well the

core interest core Industries are doing

reasonably well agriculture is doing

reasonably well so we didn't let uh the

global sort of headwinds disrupt us the

geopolitical situation being what it is

the Ukraine War uh the post-corona sort

of uh effect we took it uh on the chin

and keeping our strategic interests

right we manage the energy prices well

we managed our

supports reasonably well and our

domestic production is also doing well

so as subumai was saying our domestic

economy is doing well being a large

economy

as a being a large Market the regulatory

architecture has been has generally

tweaked and we're going in for a bit of

industrial policy as we say we're not

doing it for uh free markets the way it

used to be in the early

2005 and 2010. so as per the global

economic policy India is also going in

for a bit of sort of uh regulation over

the markets and it is pushing its

industrial policy uh through its

production linked incentives so you are

seeing mobile phone markets and the

semiconductor chip coming in so India

seems to be on a good weekend FDI is

also and the world is responding well to

the uh resilience in the Indian economy

okay okay okay Mr Kumar uh you know uh

one key challenge which the World Bank

and its report is identified is to is to

you know uh put in place measures and

I'm talking about global economy here

put in place measures uh to uh slow down

the the recession effect and especially

uh with the the tightening of monetary

policy uh from you know major uh central

banks across the world and that is

happening in a very you know synchronous

manner so do you agree that this is one

of the biggest challenge and how do we

go about it also what kind of effect it

might have on our economy because we're

also you know our Central Bank is also

adopting almost a similar monetary

policy

well uh let me start from the question

which you pose to my colleague Mr bhal

and I'll be brief I won't take too much

of a time please it is not only the

world bank's report that we are talking

about which raised India's growth to 6.6

some say 6.9 and so on most of the other

International body the credit credible

International institutions like IMF

raise it to 6.8 the Asian development

talks about seven and many others

including Morgan Stanley and in fact

some of the others like McKenzie and

their CEO Bob said it's India's Century

it's not India's uh decade and there are

many uh indicators or many

evidence for this including for example

the flow of

FDI into India has been a record high it

is 84.8 billion dollars it is also

because of several other facts that

India is a large market and it is

relatively more insulated from outside

shocks outside

turbulence like for example one percent

fall in GDP in U.S would only result in

0.4 this thing in India while other

emerging economies could be impacted

almost 1.5 times of this number of

policies which the government has

introduced including infrastructure

Logistics and so on all added to the

economic efficiency so all together I

feel that it is not just the world

bank's assessment it is all around the

optimism and we feel that we definitely

would achieve this 6.9 or 7 rate of

growth in this coming year and the the

demographic

factors also the large population India

India would be the largest

populated country in the world this year

and youngest also the median age so all

together I'm very optimistic and what

you said about RBI is tightening of this

thing I think RBI is also handled the

inflation in the economy very well and

the growth has not been impacted by the

tightening of the interest or in

inflation all together we have been

growing steadfastly and I feel that and

these are the figures which should be

used in the budget on the 1st of

February

hopeful that the budget would also be

very pro-growth and supportive of these

factors okay okay two three aspects here

uh Gathering From what uh both Mr Kumar

and Mr Bal has pointed out

in terms of what goes in favor you know

uh the FDI inflows the macroeconomic uh

you know stability uh when we talk about

India the larger domestic Market you

know we don't have to depend on other

markets for for our growth to uh that

great extent as some of the perhaps you

know so-called developed economies have

to depend upon ah in terms of challenges

you know this this monetary policy uh

changes Global changes what kind of uh

impact they might have and also you know

inflationary pressure going from here

onwards it has been contained to a

greater extent but from here onwards uh

economy is a changing situation after

all the inflation part is fairly easy to

predict at this point because if uh if

if growth rate comes down globally and

even for India also to certain extent

obviously you would expect the

inflationary pressures also to be muted

essentially that means there isn't uh

too much of upside happening so so that

part is reasonably uh easy to look at

you know the the thing that happens is

in terms of the challenges which you

talked about is that over the last eight

years the India government has been

presenting a very conservative budget

it does what it wants to do in terms of

its policies beyond the budget the

budgets tend to be conservative and we

expect the same Trend to continue this

year which is extremely good

what it does is therefore it encourages

what sort of capital it encourages

patient Capital to come in FDI you

talked about so you know pay a Pension

funds or Insurance funds they will be

attracted to come in but remember their

flow tends to be slow

if the budget would be judged by what is

called the FBI flow foreign portfolio

investors you will not find a very major

upside there why because those guys come

in for short-term Investments so they

wouldn't find anything remarkable

happening because the budget we are I

mean everyone is demanding whether the

budget should be boring and that is

exactly what it should be because the

budget will be fiscally conservative the

budget will be looking at expenditure

through a very very sharp clear lens

than what is necessary and reallocating

them only to the extent necessary okay

because remember the government is doing

two things the government is ensuring

and what we had talked about in the

earlier part that it will ensure that

the fiscal numbers are all correct which

means that it keeps its hand closed at

the same time it has to also ensure that

the states are funded that the welfare

programs are funded that means what the

boring could rise

we are at about 16.4 trillion rupees

boring now that will possibly go up to

18 trillion

so the government will be raising its

borrowing but will be just be taking

advantage of the fact that the nominal

growth rate is slightly higher this year

it's coming in at 15.4 so next state

also it will probably project at the

same rate so even if it's 6.6 percent uh

say six percent next year and if the

nominal growth rate stays something

around 14 it still has that Headroom in

which it will borrow now I'm getting

into a bit of numbers here but

essentially says is that the government

has to do two things let us represent a

boring budget which is absolutely

necessary that all the numbers look

exactly what the

analysts would expect it to be but at

the same time provide room for welfare

spending

and Welfare spending because remember we

are also entering an election year so

welfare spending exactly additionality

on Rural spending especially because as

you've seen rural wages have not risen

fast or rather has not risen much at all

now that is where you would need that

additional spending to go that will be

non-cap expending so the government will

be spending more on capex but would try

to keep that additional extra

expenditure to go into areas where there

can be a sort of a immediate sleeping in

of additional income at the rural level

but this is a very tricky balance to two

which is why I use the word very

conservatively that's supposed to be and

it will be and I fully expect the

government to present a very staid

voting budget which is actually

necessary because that is what is

necessary and that has actually been

helping the government okay and and the

Indian economy to become whatever use

the word resilient that we have been

resilient despite the shocks that have

been thrown up by the world you know

there was a demanded one time a couple

of years ago that India should spend

like you know like there's no tomorrow

and India government did not spend and

by not doing it it has actually proved

itself right

it has not gone in the inflationary tail

uh Whirlpool okay so this so these are

very important things and very important

whatever it's called stabilizing

measures that the government is India

government of India has put in and to

the extent the central government state

governments also have done their bit and

it's likely to continue on the same part

as well as you're pointing out your boy

let me bring in Mr Paul here Mr ball uh

budget of course you know gives us an

indication as to uh where are we heading

for the next year and perhaps you know a

larger plan for the next few years as

well and in these situations these

Global situations uh it becomes really

important to look at the budget as

shubman was pointing out so in in your

views how do you expect you know uh the

kind of measures which the government

might take and also which needs to be

taken at this point in time to ensure

that we sustain the resilience of our

economy and perhaps you know stay

prepared for uh the worst to happen at

Global level in the years to come as

well

okay so uh let me just give the

perspective a budget basically that has

two functions in the Indian context one

it's a vehicle for policy and second uh

the Finance Minister does an

accountant's job of matching the

revenues and expenditures so as far as

the second rule goes uh they all know

it's going to be a boring budget it's

going to be fiscally conservative there

will not be a big expenditure search in

any way and as far as India's uh as far

as budget being a vehicle for

introducing new policy changes now

Indian economy has matured most of the

important policy changes are there

outside the budget also it is not of it

is not of the earlier years when the

whole country would wait for the budget

to come and become a vehicle of uh

important policy pronouncement it

doesn't work that way the policy making

now has become a continuous exercise

just like in the developed countries so

we don't look forward to the budget we

do look forward to the budget for some

changes but for no great path breaking

policy changes so our policy

structure is already in place so you see

industry you have the production linked

incentive and in the regulatory

architecture is being tweaked for the

capital markets for data uh privacy and

things like that so we are already uh in

a very uh in a mature um

position as far as economic policy goes

and as far as the fiscal situation goes

as we all know the government is going

to be fiscally prudent it has stood it

in good it has stood it in very good

stead during the post Corona time and as

we all uh keep hearing it is expected to

be a boring budget uh being a fiscally

prudent and that's the way it should be

in a a resilient economy we don't expect

any fireworks this is not a small

African economy where you look up to the

Finance Minister to give you big

fireworks in the budget no sir that

phase is over India is now a mature

economy a policy is in place and we

don't expect any great fireworks in the

budget okay okay

um Mr Kumar do you agree with uh you

know what uh Mr Mr ball is saying wizard

of his budget budget there and of course

uh shubham's point of view in terms of

how it has been played out by the

government but also more significantly

you know required per perhaps policy

tweaks in the short term in the midterm

and the long term as well to you know

keep us on the path to sustained growth

I fully agree with my other colleagues

the exercise of budget is generally for

those objectives which have been

mentioned by Mr bahal but a number of

other key policy initiatives keep on

happening all the time whether they are

in the field of infrastructure they are

in the field of multimodal trans

transport agriculture education recently

they they allowed a few initiatives and

also in the state governments lot of

collaborative or supplementary

initiatives keep on being taken all

together I feel that we are absolutely

on the right track and it has been

acknowledged by not only the World Bank

but by various other

institutions in the world and also the

other agencies which are

concerned with investments into India so

all together I feel we are absolutely on

the right track I don't expect too many

fireworks in the budget yet they could

be a few tweaks here and there for

pushing the economy for a larger growth

path we are already about seven percent

and I hope that in the times to come we

could even grow further we have tackled

the the pandemic very well I don't

expect much of uh trickle-down effect

from China which we are will fully

prepared to tackle we have tackled the

Russia Ukraine war and the supply chain

disruptions very well I don't expect

much again and the the oil shock we are

reasonably

towards the hydrogen energy and the the

green energy path so all together I feel

that for a medium to long term we are

all geared up for a resilient growth in

our economy okay okay five are fair

enough for you know all seems to be well

uh here now quick find including comment

from you before we bring this discussion

to end key sectors to watch out for in

terms of where the action might be uh

both in positive connotations and where

we need to watch out for when we're

talking about you know the effects of

global headwinds that's one part and two

our own resilience

the big area that I'm quite sure is

going to come is climate change

uh do definitely expect the government

two nouns and to push ahead a large

package of measures on climate related

developments and that is going to be

very significant because that's

investment related that's employment

related and that's obviously also

contributing to the world global thing

already The Sovereign green funds have

been announced they've been run out so

that the first of them so do expect a

fair in fact not fair considerable a

number of measures linked to climate

change okay going to be coming along

um this would include even you know

measures which actually replace

a large part of domestic packaging and

all those things secretary environment

has already said in one of the events

that that she expects that that those

things are pronounced very soon so that

those would be very significant and I

think that's very positive in terms of

the risks the government uh has this

risk of that expenditure or on basically

if well okay you know that that is the

that is that is something that that will

have to tune in uh I wouldn't expect

them to really do anything in terms of

heightening the expenditure but the

cooking gas subsidy has again been

brought in so how much is that subsidy

going to be picked this year will be an

interesting number to look at along with

fertilizer subsidy those two are major

risks for the week for the economy but

we'll see on the day of the budget okay

indeed that is something which we'll

keep a watch out on as well and all

those aspects thank you so much

Kumar as well for sharing your views and

insight as our experts for explaining

various aspects of India's resilient

economy more significantly why is

India's economy so resilient and the

global headwinds and the global

recession the fears of global recession

which have been pointed out by World

Bank seemingly won't have much effect on

Indian economy but will keep a close

watch here and let's also a watch out

for what lies ahead as far as Union

budget is concerned keep on bringing you

all the details till then keep watching

Sunset television thank you

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