Kenapa Rupiah Berpotensi Melemah Ke Rp18.000?

Summary

In this video, Andis Jaya analyzes the Indonesian Rupiah's ongoing depreciation against the US Dollar, exploring historical trends and technical indicators. He highlights that Rupiah has consistently weakened over recent years, with current levels around Rp17,000 and potential to reach Rp18,500. Using technical tools like Fibonacci retracement and trend analysis, Andis projects possible future levels, while also examining the influence of the US Dollar Index. He discusses practical strategies for protecting value, such as holding some assets in USD or USDT stablecoins, emphasizing that his insights are personal opinions and should be used as a reference for informed decision-making amid global financial uncertainties.

Takeaways

• 😀 The Indonesian rupiah may weaken further, potentially reaching Rp18,000 to Rp18,500 in the near future.
• 😀 Andis Jaya predicted the rupiah would weaken to Rp16,000 three years ago, and that prediction was correct.
• 😀 The analysis is based on technical analysis and historical data, suggesting further depreciation of the rupiah against the USD.
• 😀 The rupiah has been on a long-term downtrend, breaking significant psychological levels like Rp15,000 and Rp16,000.
• 😀 Fibonacci retracement analysis suggests that the rupiah could reach Rp18,500 to Rp19,600 in the coming years if the current trend continues.
• 😀 The US Dollar Index (DXY) has shown divergence since 2022, where the US dollar weakened globally, but the rupiah continued to depreciate.
• 😀 The weakness in the rupiah is not entirely due to a strong US dollar but also due to internal factors affecting the value of the rupiah.
• 😀 The video suggests that investing in US dollars or assets like USDT (Tether) can be a safe haven against rupiah depreciation.
• 😀 The video calls for viewers to analyze the situation themselves and not rely solely on the speaker’s opinion.
• 😀 Andis Jaya emphasizes that the analysis is based on personal opinion and technical analysis, urging viewers to do their own research before making decisions.

Q & A

What is the main topic of the video?

The main topic of the video is the analysis of the Indonesian Rupiah (IDR) and its potential for weakening further against the US Dollar (USD), with a prediction that the Rupiah could drop to 18,000 or even 18,500 in the coming years.

What was the Rupiah's value when the speaker made a prediction three years ago?

Three years ago, the speaker predicted that the Rupiah would weaken from around 15,000 to 16,000, which eventually happened.

How did the speaker predict the Rupiah's movement in relation to the US Dollar?

The speaker used technical analysis and predicted that if the Rupiah broke through the psychological resistance at 15,000, the USD would likely move towards 15,600. If this level broke, it would move higher, towards levels between 15,800 and 16,200.

What is the current situation with the Rupiah, and how does it compare to the past?

The current value of the Rupiah is around 17,000, marking an all-time low. The speaker compares this with historical data showing that the Rupiah has weakened significantly over time, especially after the 1997-98 crisis.

What pattern does the speaker observe in the Rupiah's trend over the years?

The speaker observes a consistent uptrend in the Rupiah’s weakening, noting a pattern of higher lows and higher highs, which suggests that the Rupiah is in a longer-term bearish trend relative to the US Dollar.

What is the potential prediction for the Rupiah in the coming years?

The speaker predicts that the Rupiah could continue to weaken, possibly reaching 18,000 to 18,500 in 2026 and beyond, based on historical trends and technical indicators such as Fibonacci retracement levels.

How does the speaker use Fibonacci retracement in their analysis?

The speaker uses Fibonacci retracement to predict potential future levels for the Rupiah. For example, they mention that the 127.2% level suggests a potential price of 19,600, while the 161.8% level points to a target of 18,500.

Can the Rupiah be traded directly against the US Dollar on platforms like XM?

No, the Rupiah is not a major currency and therefore cannot be traded directly on platforms like XM. However, users can trade other currencies such as USD, JPY, and EUR, or assets like gold and stocks.

What is the key difference between the movement of the USD/IDR pair and the USD Index (DXY) in recent years?

Since 2022, there has been a divergence between the movement of the USD/IDR pair and the USD Index (DXY). While the DXY (US Dollar Index) has been weakening, the USD/IDR pair has continued to rise, indicating that the Rupiah has been weakening independently of the global strength of the USD.

Why does the speaker believe it's important to hold US Dollar or USDT (stablecoin)?

The speaker believes holding US Dollar or USDT is important to protect against the depreciation of the Rupiah. Additionally, USDT is a stablecoin pegged 1:1 to the US Dollar, which provides stability and is easy to convert for cryptocurrency trading.