Reading Candlestick Charts Was HARD Until I Learned These 3 SIMPLE Steps

Ross Cameron - Warrior Trading
7 May 202448:14

Summary

TLDR本视频教程旨在帮助交易者简化对蜡烛图的解读。演讲者分享了自己早期交易时的挑战,并介绍了三个简化步骤:减少使用指标、专注于明显的交易机会、构建有效的交易策略。他强调,成功的交易依赖于识别清晰的买卖信号、避免过度复杂化,并根据历史表现选择正确的交易工具。此外,他还讨论了如何处理交易中的恐惧和如何通过设置止损来管理风险。

Takeaways

  • 📊 蜡烛图是金融市场的通用语言,学会正确阅读可以发现图表中的买卖信号。
  • 🤔 初学者常因过度复杂化和关注错误的图表类型而难以理解蜡烛图。
  • 📉 交易者应减少指标使用,避免因过多指标导致交易前难以检查和信号冲突。
  • 💰 作者通过交易小份额来克服对损失的恐惧,减少情绪化交易。
  • 🚫 没有所谓的完美指标或“圣杯”,每个交易者都会时不时地亏损。
  • 📈 使用指数移动平均线(EMA)9、20和200,因为它们能快速反映价格变动。
  • 📊 利用成交量加权平均价格(VWAP)作为均衡点,判断市场情绪。
  • 📘 成交量条应根据蜡烛的开盘和收盘价进行颜色编码,以反映市场情绪。
  • 📉 MACD(移动平均收敛发散指标)有助于识别市场动能和潜在的买卖点。
  • 🎯 专注于交易明显具有高相对成交量的股票,这通常与新闻催化剂有关。
  • 📌 构建交易策略时要关注有效的模式,避免过度复杂的图表和指标。

Q & A

  • 什么是蜡烛图,它在金融市场中的重要性是什么?

    -蜡烛图是一种展示股票、期货、外汇等金融市场数据的图表,它能够直观地反映市场在一定时间内的开盘价、收盘价、最高价和最低价。它的重要性在于,通过蜡烛图的形态和组合,投资者可以识别市场情绪和潜在的买卖信号,从而做出更明智的交易决策。

  • 为什么许多交易者在开始时难以理解蜡烛图?

    -蜡烛图对于初学者来说可能像一门外语,因为它包含了许多特定的形态和信号,需要时间和实践来熟悉。此外,初学者可能会因为过度复杂化或关注错误的图表类型而难以把握其精髓。

  • 如何简化蜡烛图的分析过程?

    -简化分析过程的关键在于减少使用的指标数量,专注于几个关键的指标,如移动平均线、成交量加权平均价格(VWAP)和成交量条,以及MACD指标。这样可以避免信息过载,更清晰地识别市场信号。

  • 为什么交易者应该避免在图表上使用过多的指标?

    -使用过多的指标会导致分析过程变得复杂且难以管理,可能会产生相互矛盾的信号,使交易者难以迅速做出决策。此外,过多的指标可能会掩盖真正的市场信号,导致交易者错过交易机会或做出错误的交易决策。

  • 什么是移动平均线,它在交易中的作用是什么?

    -移动平均线是一种通过计算一定时间段内的平均价格来展示价格趋势的技术分析工具。它在交易中的作用是帮助交易者识别市场趋势的强度和持续性,以及可能的支撑和阻力水平。

  • 成交量加权平均价格(VWAP)是什么,它如何帮助交易者?

    -成交量加权平均价格(VWAP)是一种考虑成交量因素的平均价格指标,它显示了在特定时间段内的平均交易价格。VWAP帮助交易者了解市场在特定价格水平上的成交量分布,从而判断市场的供需平衡和可能的价格动向。

  • 为什么交易者在交易时应该关注相对成交量?

    -相对成交量是当前成交量与其平均成交量的比值,它反映了市场的活跃程度和交易者的兴趣。高相对成交量通常意味着有新闻或其他催化剂驱动市场,这可能导致价格的大幅波动,为交易者提供交易机会。

  • 如何定义“明显的交易机会”,并如何识别它们?

    -“明显的交易机会”是指那些具有高相对成交量、价格大幅波动和新闻催化剂的股票或其他金融工具。识别这些机会可以通过使用市场扫描器来监控整个市场,寻找符合这些条件的金融工具。

  • 为什么交易者不应该只交易他们熟悉的股票?

    -只交易熟悉的股票可能会限制交易者发现更好的交易机会。熟悉的股票可能并不是市场上最活跃或最有潜力的交易对象。交易者应该根据市场条件和交易策略来选择交易对象,而不是仅仅基于个人熟悉程度。

  • 如何建立一个有效的交易策略,并如何使用蜡烛图来支持这个策略?

    -建立有效的交易策略需要定义清晰的交易参数,如相对成交量、价格变动、催化剂等,并根据这些参数来选择交易对象。使用蜡烛图来支持策略,可以通过识别蜡烛图上的特定形态和信号来确定买卖时机,同时结合其他技术指标来验证这些信号的可靠性。

  • 为什么交易者在交易中应该避免过度交易熟悉的股票?

    -过度交易熟悉的股票可能会导致交易者忽视市场上其他更有潜力的交易机会。此外,熟悉的股票可能并不总是表现出足够的波动性,从而限制了交易者的盈利潜力。

  • 如何使用蜡烛图来确定交易的入场和退出点?

    -使用蜡烛图确定入场点可以通过识别第一个创出新高的蜡烛来实现,这通常表明市场趋势的延续。而退出点可以通过识别第一个创出新低的蜡烛来确定,这可能表明市场趋势的反转。同时,交易者还应结合其他技术指标和市场条件来做出决策。

  • 为什么交易者在交易中应该避免过度简化他们的图表?

    -过度简化图表可能会导致交易者忽视重要的市场信息和信号,从而影响他们的交易决策。一个平衡的图表应该包含关键的技术指标和数据,帮助交易者全面地分析市场情况。

  • 如何通过蜡烛图识别市场的买卖信号?

    -通过蜡烛图识别市场的买卖信号,交易者可以寻找特定的蜡烛形态,如吞没形态、锤子线、流星线等。同时,交易者还应关注成交量的变化,以及价格相对于移动平均线和VWAP的位置。

  • 为什么交易者在交易中应该避免追求所谓的“圣杯”指标?

    -所谓的“圣杯”指标是指能够完美预测市场买卖时机的指标,但这样的指标并不存在。市场是复杂的,没有任何指标能够始终准确无误。成功的交易依赖于交易者对多种指标的综合分析,以及对市场条件的适应能力。

  • 如何使用MACD指标来辅助交易决策?

    -MACD指标是一种振荡指标,通过计算两个不同周期的移动平均线之间的差异来展示市场动力。当MACD线位于信号线之上时,可能表明市场处于上升趋势,而当MACD线位于信号线之下时,则可能表明市场处于下降趋势。交易者可以利用这一点来确定交易的时机。

  • 为什么交易者在交易中应该避免因为恐惧而过早卖出?

    -因为恐惧而过早卖出可能会导致交易者错失更大的盈利机会。成功的交易需要交易者有良好的风险管理策略和耐心,以持有有利可图的交易直到出现明确的退出信号。

  • 如何通过调整交易策略来克服过早卖出的问题?

    -交易者可以通过设置预设的卖出规则或使用交易软件的热键功能来调整交易策略,例如,设置在盈利达到一定水平时自动卖出一半的头寸,然后在价格继续上涨时逐步卖出剩余的头寸。

  • 为什么交易者在交易中应该避免持有亏损的头寸?

    -持有亏损的头寸可能会导致交易者的损失进一步扩大,特别是在市场趋势明显反转的情况下。成功的交易需要交易者有明确的退出策略,一旦市场条件不再符合预期,就应该及时止损。

  • 如何使用蜡烛图来管理交易中的风险?

    -交易者可以通过设置止损点来管理交易中的风险,例如,在蜡烛图上设置在最近的支撑位或阻力位下方作为止损点。此外,交易者还可以通过分散投资和适时调整头寸大小来控制风险。

Outlines

00:00

📊 蜡烛图入门指南

本段介绍了蜡烛图作为金融市场的通用语言,以及如何通过简化图表来识别买卖信号。作者分享了自己作为新手时的困惑,并强调了减少指标数量的重要性,以避免在交易前检查过多指标导致的信息冲突。作者还分享了自己在交易初期的个人经历,包括面对经济衰退和个人财务困境时如何通过交易谋生,并鼓励观众通过简化图表和克服对损失的恐惧来提高交易技能。

05:02

📈 简化交易指标

这一段讲述了作者如何通过减少图表上的指标数量来提高交易效率。作者推荐使用三种指数移动平均线(EMA9、EMA20和EMA200)和成交量加权平均价格(VWAP)作为主要指标,并解释了这些指标如何帮助交易者识别市场趋势和交易机会。同时,作者还介绍了如何通过观察成交量条的颜色变化来理解市场情绪。

10:02

📉 交易量分析

本段深入探讨了成交量条的重要性,说明了如何通过观察成交量的变化来预测价格走势。作者指出,仅通过成交量条可以进行交易,但没有成交量条的蜡烛图则难以理解市场动态。作者通过实例展示了成交量条如何揭示买卖双方的力量对比,并强调了在交易中识别模式和进行准确预测的重要性。

15:04

🚀 抓住明显交易机会

作者在这一段中分享了如何识别和专注于市场上最明显的交易机会。他强调了避免交易那些自己熟悉但波动性不足的股票,而是应该寻找那些具有高相对成交量和明显价格波动的股票。作者还提到了使用扫描器来发现市场上的热点股票,并分享了自己如何通过这种方法实现盈利。

20:05

📉 相对成交量的重要性

这段内容强调了相对成交量(Rel RV)在交易策略中的重要性。作者通过自己的交易数据展示了高相对成交量与盈利之间的正相关关系,并解释了高相对成交量通常是由新闻催化剂驱动的。作者还分享了自己如何通过分析交易数据来发现盈利模式,并鼓励观众寻找具有高相对成交量的股票进行交易。

25:05

📈 构建有效的交易策略

作者在这一段中介绍了如何基于有效的市场指标构建交易策略。他分享了自己如何通过分析交易数据来确定交易策略的关键参数,例如寻找价格在2到20美元之间、相对成交量至少是平均水平五倍的股票。作者还强调了催化剂在推动交易中的作用,并解释了如何使用扫描器在市场中实时寻找符合这些参数的交易机会。

30:06

🏄‍♂️ 抓住交易波动

本段内容讲述了作者如何在交易中识别和利用波动。作者分享了自己如何通过观察价格波动和成交量来判断买入时机,并解释了在价格上涨后的首次回调中寻找买入机会的重要性。作者还讨论了如何使用技术指标,如MACD和移动平均线,来验证交易决策,并强调了在波动市场中寻找清晰交易模式的重要性。

35:08

🌊 交易时机与波动

作者在这一段中比喻了交易中的波动,强调了在价格上涨后的首次回调中寻找买入机会的重要性。他解释了如何识别波动的模式,并在波动的“回撤”时寻找买入点。作者还讨论了如何使用技术指标来确认这些买入点,并分享了自己如何通过这种方法在交易中取得成功。

40:08

📉 交易中的人性因素

本段内容探讨了交易中的人性因素,特别是对损失的恐惧如何影响交易决策。作者分享了自己如何通过改变交易习惯和使用热键来克服过早卖出的冲动。他还讨论了如何通过调整止损点和逐步卖出来提高交易的盈利潜力,并强调了在交易中保持纪律和遵循策略的重要性。

45:11

📈 成功交易的策略

作者在这最后一段中总结了成功交易的关键要素,包括使用较少的指标、专注于最佳交易设置,并围绕自己的交易数据构建策略。他强调了在交易中保持耐心、不过早卖出,并在出现明确的退出信号时才退出交易。作者还提供了自己使用的交易策略的PDF下载链接,并鼓励观众实践这一策略。

Mindmap

Keywords

💡蜡烛图

蜡烛图是一种股票交易图表,它通过特定的图形展示一段时间内的价格变动,包括开盘价、收盘价、最高价和最低价。在视频中,蜡烛图被视为金融市场的通用语言,是交易者分析市场趋势和信号的重要工具。例如,视频中提到初学者可能会觉得蜡烛图看起来像外语一样难以理解,但随着学习,交易者将能够识别出图表中的买卖信号。

💡交易指标

交易指标是交易者用来分析市场条件和指导交易决策的工具或公式。视频中强调,过多的指标会导致交易者难以快速做出决策,并可能产生相互矛盾的信号。作者建议简化指标,只使用少数几个关键指标,如移动平均线和成交量加权平均价格(VWAP),以提高交易效率。

💡移动平均线

移动平均线是一种通过计算一定时间段内的平均价格来平滑价格数据的技术分析工具。在视频中,作者推荐使用9日、20日和200日的指数移动平均线,因为它们分别代表了不同时间尺度上的价格趋势,有助于交易者识别市场动态。

💡成交量

成交量是指在一定时间内交易的证券数量,它是衡量市场活跃度和交易强度的重要指标。视频中提到,成交量条应该根据蜡烛的开盘和收盘价进行颜色编码,以反映市场情绪和买卖力量的对比。

💡恐惧损失

恐惧损失是指交易者对潜在亏损的过度担忧,这可能导致他们在交易中过于谨慎或做出错误的决策。视频作者分享了自己在交易初期因恐惧损失而过度复杂化交易图表的经历,并建议通过交易较小的股份来减少这种恐惧。

💡相对成交量

相对成交量是一个指标,用来衡量特定时间段内的成交量与过去平均成交量的比较。视频中提到,当相对成交量是其平均水平的五倍时,作者发现这是盈利的最佳时机,因为这通常是由新闻催化剂驱动的高交易活动。

💡新闻催化剂

新闻催化剂是指能够显著影响股票或其他金融资产价格的新闻事件或公告。在视频中,作者强调了识别和利用新闻催化剂来识别高相对成交量和潜在交易机会的重要性。

💡MACD指标

MACD(移动平均收敛发散指标)是一种振荡器指标,通过比较两个不同周期的移动平均线来展示价格动量和趋势变化。视频中,作者使用MACD来确认交易信号,特别是当MACD线高于信号线时,视为买入信号。

💡交易策略

交易策略是一套规则或方法,用于指导交易者在特定市场条件下如何买入和卖出证券。视频中,作者分享了自己的交易策略,包括使用特定的交易指标、专注于高相对成交量的股票,并在价格首次突破新高时买入。

💡退出指标

退出指标是用来确定何时退出交易的信号,以锁定利润或限制损失。在视频中,作者提到,当价格不再上涨或出现卖出信号时,如第一个创造新低的蜡烛,就是退出交易的时机。

💡利润损失比

利润损失比是交易者在交易中获得的平均利润与平均损失的比例。视频中,作者强调了维持一个良好的利润损失比的重要性,这有助于确保即使在只有一半的交易决策正确的情况下,交易者也能保持盈利。

Highlights

本集专注于如何正确阅读K线图,解决初学者面对K线图如同面对外语的困惑。

K线图是金融市场的通用语言,适用于不同交易市场。

许多交易者因过度复杂化和关注错误的图表类型而误解K线图。

简化指标是关键,过多的指标会导致交易前难以检查并可能产生冲突信号。

作者分享了个人交易经历,如何从复杂的图表中简化并克服对损失的恐惧。

使用较小的交易规模可以减少因错误而导致的情感损失。

不存在完美的交易指标,即所谓的“圣杯”,交易者应接受偶尔的亏损。

作者展示了即使只有68.6%的正确率,通过良好的盈亏比仍然可以实现盈利。

推荐使用简单移动平均线(9日、20日、200日指数移动平均线)作为交易指标。

成交量加权平均价格(VWAP)是另一个重要的交易指标。

正确使用成交量条,根据蜡烛图的开盘和收盘价进行颜色编码。

MACD(移动平均收敛发散指标)是一个有用的振荡指标,帮助减少假突破。

专注于交易明显具有高相对成交量的股票,这通常与新闻催化剂有关。

作者通过分析自己的交易数据,发现高相对成交量与盈利交易有很强的相关性。

建议交易者不要只交易熟悉的股票,而应交易当天明显波动或值得关注的股票。

交易策略应建立在简单指标、明显模式和个人交易成功的基础上。

作者提供了一个PDF策略下载链接,供交易者学习和实践。

强调了交易者应如何正确设置止损和获利,以及如何避免过早卖出。

通过改变交易习惯和使用热键来避免因恐惧损失而过早退出交易。

使用退出指标,如首次出现新低的蜡烛图,作为卖出信号。

强调了保持交易策略简单性的重要性,避免过度复杂化。

Transcripts

play00:00

if you've been having a hard time

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reading Candlestick charts this episode

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is for you I remember a time when I was

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getting started when I looked at a

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Candlestick chart and I said to myself I

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don't see anything it's like I'm looking

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at a foreign language and it's true that

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this is a language this is the universal

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language of the financial markets and it

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doesn't matter if you're trading Forex

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cryptocurrency futures or you're trading

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stock when you learn to read Candlestick

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charts the right way you will see the

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subtle buy and sell signal that are on

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every chart the reason most Traders mess

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this up is because they're over

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complicating it and they're looking at

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the wrong type of charts I'm going to

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clear all of that up for you in today's

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episode so we're going to go ahead and

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jump into the slide deck how to read

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Candlestick charts and I'm going to walk

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you through the three simple steps that

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I took that made finally reading

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Candlestick charts click now I struggled

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with this and the reason that I

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struggled was because when I was getting

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started as a Trader I had a small

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account as many of you may have today

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and I felt like I couldn't afford loss I

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could not afford to make mistakes my

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back was kind of up against the wall

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just to give you context when I was

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learning a trade I was in my 20s I had a

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college degree but it was the Great

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Recession the economy sucked and I

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couldn't get a regular job and I

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basically had no savings I was running

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out of money and so I was in a position

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where I needed to make this thing work

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my goal was to make $200 a day you know

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roughly a th000 a week 50,000 a year

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that for me at that time was was like a

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dream and I wasn't achieving it so when

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I was setting up my Candlestick charts I

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was doing everything possible to reduce

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my likelihood of what I thought would be

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loss and I ended up creating these

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incredibly complex charts I'm a little

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embarrassed to even show this to you

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this is an actual Candlestick chart that

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I was using at one point you can barely

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even see candlesticks they're up here on

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this top panel there are more than 20

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different indicators on this chart right

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now so step one I'm going to tell you

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guys fewer indicators is better and I'm

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going to show you which ones you should

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be using but the reason fewer is better

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is because when you have that many

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indicators it's it's literally

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impossible to check all of them before

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you take a trade and you can end up

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getting conflicting signals because

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you've got so many indicators you're

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trying to rely on so what I really

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needed to do to be honest

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was address that fear of loss that was

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so deep inside me I was so scared of

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losing and one of the ways I was able to

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kind of break free from that was by

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beginning to trade with really small

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share size so when I would take losses

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they weren't as emotional because I made

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a mistake that a lot of beginner Traders

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make that when I first got started I was

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trading with big size and I incurred a

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few huge Lo well it felt at the time to

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be huge losses they wouldn't be relative

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to where I'm at now but but at the time

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they were really big and it was so

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disheartening I was so frustrated I just

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felt like you know the world was ending

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if if I couldn't figure this thing out

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and so I was trading with this kind of

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like it was like crazy but it was like

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almost like Russian Roulette like every

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time I took a trade I was like oh God is

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this going to be the one and I had so

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much fear in me that I couldn't focus I

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couldn't see straight so I was adding

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all these indicators because I was

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searching for the Holy Grail now some of

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you may have been on the hunt and not

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even realized it the Holy Grail so to

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speak is the perfect indicator that will

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always tell you when to buy exactly when

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to sell and you will never lose money

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man that would be awesome it would be

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awesome and I hate to break the bad news

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that it doesn't exist there is no such

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thing out there as a Holy Grail

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indicator that's never wrong and there's

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no such thing is a Trader that doesn't

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from time to time lose money and just to

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inspire you you know just a little bit

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um and this isn't to brag it's uh just

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just to kind of put it out there though

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and show you this is $12.6 million of

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real money third party audited broker

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statements you can see it on my website

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if you want this is real money that I've

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made and I did it while being right only

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68.6% of the time in other words I'm

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wrong 30% of the time and I'm still

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making money and that's because of

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course I've figured out how to have a

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good profit loss ratio my accuracy is

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pretty decent and I'm choosing the right

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instruments to trade every single day

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but let's get back to these Candlestick

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charts so hopefully that's a little

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inspiring for you although I'll remind

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you that my results are not typical this

play04:41

is pretty exceptional uh hopefully it

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inspires you because for me one of the

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things that kept me going was knowing

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that there were other Traders out there

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that were making money you know if if

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everyone was losing 100% of people were

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losing it was like no but just the fact

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that there were a few people out there

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that were doing well that gave me hope

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so you're telling me there's a chance

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okay so fewer indicators is better

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there's no doubt about that what I would

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say is these are the indicators that I'm

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going to encourage you to use okay so

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number one we're going to keep it simple

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we're going to use um moving averages

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and I'm going to use exponential moving

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averages and these are the ones I'm

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going to use the 9 the 20 and the 200

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those are three exponential moving

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averages now the way I set it up my 200

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is in magenta my nine is in a kind of a

play05:33

gray color and my 20 is in blue so now

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let's jump onto the chart real quick and

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I'll actually show you these indicators

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okay so this isn't this is just a very

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clean example of a chart and if I full

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screen this I mean I don't really

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probably have to compare it to what you

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just saw because this is obviously much

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much easier to read I mean it's almost

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like the difference between a a very

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messy disorganized room or you know

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office or whatever and something that is

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like clean and clear right so this is

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what you want you want a nice clean

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simple chart so we've got the nine

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exponential moving average here this is

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our fastest exponential moving average a

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moving average takes the average price

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over the X number of periods and so this

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is a nine moving average so it's giving

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you the average price over the last nine

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candles and going to move the fastest

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with price action this is the average

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price over the last 20 candles it's

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going to move a little slower than the

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nine and this is the average price over

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the last 200 candles the 200 period

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moving average is is very well respected

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a lot of people use the 10 and the 20

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and the 50 and the 100 I use the nine I

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actually like it just a little bit more

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than the 10 it's just like a little bit

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faster I like the 20 and I don't find

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the 50 or the 100 uh necessary they're

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just extra unnecessary indicators on my

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chart and if I'm not using them it makes

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my chart messy and I don't need it so

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we've got three moving averages the nine

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the 20 and the 200 now the other

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indicator that you're going to want is

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your volume weight at average price so

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indicator number two is vwap volume

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weighted average price and this is going

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to be uh it's a standard indicator and I

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do it in an orange dotted line just like

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that now your volume weighted average

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price here just make that cleaner your

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volume weighted average price price is

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like a moving average except that it

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also factors in um the volume that

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occurred there it is so this is actually

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in solid but you could have it either

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either in a solid line or a dotted line

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whichever one you prefer so this is

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factoring in the amount of volume that

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occurs at price and the volume weight

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moving average um volume weight average

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price is the equilibrium point for the

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day so it is the exact average price PR

play08:00

for the period of the day so if the

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price is above average it's bullish if

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it's below average it's bearish so as a

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very simple way of thinking about it if

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something is below um the volume weight

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average price the Bears are in control

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if it's above the Bulls are in control

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and generally as a long biased Trader

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I'm going to focus on trading when the

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price is above vwap so down here we

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dipped below it just for a moment and

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then the Bulls uh regained control and

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it got back above it all right so we've

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got our 9 EMA our 20 EMA our 200 EMA our

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volume weight at average price then of

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course we need a volume bars so number

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number three volume bars and volume bars

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have to be colored based on the close

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and open of um the candles so you cannot

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have volume bars for instance that are

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all the same color this would be a

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mistake these are our volume bars right

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here and what we're actually going to do

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here um I'm going to go full screen this

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just the volume bars and I'm going to

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demonstrate for you how important this

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is if these were all the same color what

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we would miss is uh it would be hard to

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understand sentiment so I'll just make

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them all the same color here just for a

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second uh and just kind of show you what

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this looks like oops okay oops this way

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all right so if these are all the same

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color all we know is that we've got a

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lot of

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volume but I can't tell from this where

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the price is going can you I would

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imagine you can't it's impossible now

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let's add um for growing volume we're

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going to change this back to green here

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and even if you didn't make this one red

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you of course know the inverse is going

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to be red so now this is painting a

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picture what this is telling us is on

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these candles right here we certainly

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had high volume kind of out of nowhere

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high buying volume came in what this is

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communicating is the imbalance that's

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occurring between buyers and sell

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so during this period of time right now

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who's

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dominating just based on the volume

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profile the volume profile is telling us

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that the buyers are dominating so we can

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almost certainly assume that the price

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was moving up we probably moved up here

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we pulled back for a second we moved up

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more we pulled back again we moved up a

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little bit we dipped down maybe a little

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higher dip couple red candles so dipping

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down a little bit more maybe coming back

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up for a second and then going into a

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little bit of a period of pulling back

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we start to pop up for for a second and

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then we kind of pull back again all

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right so now let's pull up the chart and

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see how that lines up okay so you could

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actually almost trade exclusively on

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volume bars without Candlestick charts

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at all they're that they're that

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significant and likewise to trade

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without volume bars you would be almost

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trading with one eye closed because

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while the candles are moving up it's

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very important to understand the volume

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profile because this gives you context

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so let's just say for instance that the

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price is moving up so we're going to do

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some green candles here let's just say

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that the price is moving up U but the

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volume is declining those are the volume

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bars and then when you have a red candle

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here let's just imagine that the the

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selling volume is like this what story

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does that tell the imbalance is clearly

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to the sell side while there were buyers

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they were diminishing and then when the

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sellers came in they Di

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what about the inverse volume increasing

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as it's moving up and when it pulls back

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light volume now this is the information

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that we need in order to make an

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accurate prediction at what's going to

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happen next the traders who can predict

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the future the best will be the ones who

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make the most money and what we're doing

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as Traders is we're getting really good

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at pattern recognition now what I

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struggled with as a beginner was that

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for one I couldn't see the patterns I

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couldn't see the the trees through the

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forest because I had so many indicators

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on my charts I couldn't see the patterns

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trying to visualize patterns the SLE

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patterns of an indicator

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is the problem is the indicator is a

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derivative of the actual price so I

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don't know a really good analogy for it

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off the top of my head but to me it

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makes a lot more sense to pay attention

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to the price it's almost like trying to

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do everything like looking in a mirror

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looking in a reflection it it like just

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look at the actual Source because that's

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where you're going to get the cleanest

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information so the source is here the

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candles the indicators provide context

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and that's helpful but you can't only

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have indicators when you only have

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indicators you can't make accurate

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predictions because the best patterns

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are going to occur on the Candlestick

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chart itself and then what you're going

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to do is you're going to use these

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indicators your moving averages your

play12:55

volume weight average price your volume

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and then this one right here which I'll

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talk about in a second you're going to

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use these to help you essentially

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validate that this is doing what you

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think it's going to do okay so in this

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uh case right here the prediction

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changed significantly based on the two

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volume profiles so we'll do a second

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version right here um where we have

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decreasing volume as we go higher and

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then we have these candles here with

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high selling volume so now if we start

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to make a move back back up I would

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predict that the buying volume would be

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very low and that we would end up at

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best double topping at the high of day

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with this being resistance for a move

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back lower and at the worst it wouldn't

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even make a new high it would just keep

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going lower and lower and I certainly

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would not be buying dips or pullbacks in

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this area here thinking it's going to

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move higher there's no way I would do

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that on this chart on the other hand if

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we're pulling back right here and that's

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our 9 moving average and then our 20 is

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down here and our V app is down here a

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little lower I would look at this and I

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would say I should be a buyer near the

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support of the N9 moving average right

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here the volume profile tells me there's

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an imbalance to the buy side if I buy

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right here near support I can set my

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stop at the low of this candle right

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down here and I can add as the price

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moves higher and this is a chart where I

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would expect to see strong resolution to

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the upside now this is an example this

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is a real chart and this is a real stock

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that I traded and I'll show you the p&l

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that I had on the stock um a little bit

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later in this class so we have our first

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move up here on high volume nice volume

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we have a momentary pullback and then it

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pushes even higher we have here a little

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bit of a more proper pullback and again

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look at the volume profile nice high

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volume buying as it was moving higher

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and then a light volume candle right

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here that's red it dips down for a

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second and this is the spot to be a

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buyer right down here while you

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certainly could buy as the pattern comes

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back up to the top you could also be

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accumulating right here on this pullback

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because the volume profile is supporting

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the belief that this is going to move

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higher the buyers are in control and

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when buyers are in control the dips get

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bought up and the price moves higher it

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pulls back again buyers are still in

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control and the price moves even higher

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now the four indicator that you're going

play15:30

to see uh is on my charts is the

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macd so the macd macd stands for moving

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average convergence Divergence indicator

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and this is an oscillating indicator so

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it goes like this and it has a signal

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line that goes like this and what I do

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with this

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indicator is uh I I focus on trading

play15:54

when the macd is above the signal line

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so you've got your signal line here

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which is orange and then you've got your

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your macd which is the um which

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basically what this is doing is it's

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taking the moving averages and it's

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telling you when they're uh converging

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or diverging so here the moving averages

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are diverging they're moving apart right

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do you see how those moving averages are

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moving apart they move apart when the

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price is moving quickly the price moves

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quickly the moving averages pull away

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from each other when the price starts to

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contract and come back together the

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moving averages converge and during the

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bare Market of 2022 and then the rally

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in 2023 I found that by only trading

play16:39

when the macd is open that greatly

play16:43

reduced the number of false breakouts I

play16:45

had so this is an indicator that is

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helpful to look at as you know sort of

play16:50

in a way Red Light Green Light if the

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macd is positive above the signal line

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I'm interested if it's negative I'm not

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interested and so on this chart right

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here when that crossed over you know

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right at this point that was the place

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where I would say nope I'm not

play17:04

interested anymore now you know you

play17:06

could create kind of a

play17:08

complex overlay like this and you know

play17:11

you could it make it very easy to not

play17:14

miss it but unfortunately when you start

play17:16

doing this it's very easy just look at

play17:19

how much Messier this chart looks it's

play17:21

not easy to see and what you don't want

play17:23

to lose sight of are these clean simple

play17:25

patterns right here because this really

play17:28

is going to be where you're going to

play17:29

find the most

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success so Step One is simplifying your

play17:35

indicators you can see on my chart how

play17:37

simple it looks it's just not worth over

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complicating it so you really want to

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keep it simple this is what my charts

play17:44

look like and this is what it looks like

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whether it's a 1 minute a 5 minute a 10c

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a daily chart they're the same I just

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keep it really simple okay so now let's

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pull the slide deck back up here for a

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second all right so step one is fewer

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indicators is better step two is

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focusing on what is obvious this was a

play18:04

huge mistake that I made when I was

play18:07

getting started when I was getting

play18:09

started I wasn't focusing on what was

play18:11

obvious my problem was that I started

play18:14

focusing on stocks that I knew and now

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it doesn't matter whether you're trading

play18:19

futures or Forex or you're trading

play18:21

cryptocurrency you you want to trade

play18:24

what is obvious so let me just pull the

play18:25

charts back up here and show you an

play18:27

example of what I mean so on this

play18:29

particular day I would say without

play18:32

question this was the obvious stock to

play18:35

trade it ended up going up 100% it had

play18:38

news it was on my scanner right here I

play18:41

saw it when it was up like

play18:42

69% these are scanners that are

play18:44

searching the market for stocks that are

play18:47

moving but you can use scanners like

play18:48

this for um commodities for Forex Pairs

play18:51

and for cryptocurrencies as well now the

play18:54

problem that I got into is that I

play18:56

started trading things that I knew so

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I'd pull up a chart on IBM and I'm like

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I know IBM computers and I'd start

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looking at this chart and I this is what

play19:08

this is when I said I don't see a gosh

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darn thing I'm looking at this chart and

play19:13

it's just I got nothing I pull up a

play19:16

chart on us steel x this is a company

play19:20

that I was familiar with I see nothing I

play19:24

pull up American Electric Power this is

play19:26

another stock that I had for a while

play19:28

that I focused on on a lot oops a pulled

play19:31

up American Electric Power I got nothing

play19:33

this thing makes you know I I I just

play19:35

don't see anything here there's not

play19:37

clear patterns and this was the biggest

play19:41

mistake that I was making I was trading

play19:43

things that I was familiar with I was

play19:45

not trading things that were actually

play19:47

volatile or worthy of my attention on

play19:52

that particular day by the way if you

play19:54

want to download a PDF of my strategy it

play19:57

breaks down my crit for finding the best

play19:59

stocks to trade and where I'm getting in

play20:02

and what exit indicators I'm using to

play20:04

tell me when to get out you can download

play20:06

the PDF it is linked to the top comment

play20:09

I pinned it and it's also linked in the

play20:11

top of the description so make sure you

play20:12

download it print it out and start

play20:14

practicing trading this strategy in a

play20:16

simulator of course this is the strategy

play20:18

I've been trading for more than a decade

play20:20

it works in today's market so I would

play20:23

encourage you to study it as much as

play20:25

possible and see if you can find Success

play20:28

With It because it's incorporating

play20:29

everything we're talking about in

play20:31

today's episode so here was my reasoning

play20:33

I had heard some people say you should

play20:35

get really good at trading like one or

play20:37

two stocks get really good at trading

play20:39

like apple for example or the S&P 500

play20:43

and some people do this with with

play20:44

Bitcoin or with gold just get really

play20:47

good at trading you know One Financial

play20:50

instrument once you start to kind of

play20:52

learn its patterns you'll start to get

play20:54

comfortable and you'll get better at it

play20:56

that was not true for me that was never

play20:58

true I wasn't able to actually get

play21:00

dialed in and and to be honest I think

play21:03

it's kind of a myth because now with

play21:05

more than a decade of experien trading

play21:07

full-time I don't know any traders who

play21:10

actually make a living trading like that

play21:12

I've known a few people who were very

play21:14

wealthy who bought positions in some of

play21:17

these stocks like Tesla or apple and

play21:19

would kind of trade around them

play21:22

sometimes they would buy more shares on

play21:23

one day the price would go up they'd

play21:25

sell them but if the price went down

play21:27

they would just keep holding them

play21:28

because they believed in what they were

play21:30

buying and that's not really day trading

play21:33

and to be honest for Traders like myself

play21:35

who are getting started with small

play21:37

accounts you can't afford to do that so

play21:40

I it just didn't make sense so this was

play21:43

the big problem for me is I was not

play21:45

trading what was obvious so what is a

play21:49

better way to define and help you

play21:51

understand what is

play21:53

obvious what I look for is high relative

play21:57

volume

play21:59

so let's define what that means some of

play22:01

you may be familiar with this phrase uh

play22:03

others are not so we're looking for uh

play22:07

the abbreviation is just Rel RV for

play22:09

relative volume and what I have found in

play22:12

my metrics is that I make the most money

play22:15

when the relative volume is five times

play22:18

higher than its average and I can

play22:21

actually back this up with um with this

play22:25

$12.6 million in in profit so we're

play22:29

going to look here uh let's see what it

play22:31

is um it's under is it under let's see

play22:36

under

play22:38

instrument okay so we're going to pull

play22:40

this up um what we're looking for here

play22:42

oh no maybe it's stay oh let's just

play22:44

check no it is here um so performance by

play22:48

instrument relative volume right here so

play22:51

this shows over $10 million of my profit

play22:55

came from stocks that had at least five

play22:59

500% higher which is five times higher

play23:01

five times higher relative volume

play23:05

relative to the 50-day average and then

play23:07

the rest for the most part was on uh

play23:10

stocks that were between 150 and 200 but

play23:12

in fact look at this these are losses

play23:15

when I'm trading stocks that have lower

play23:16

relative volume that's very interesting

play23:20

now what what is this what is this

play23:22

essentially telling us the reason that

play23:26

I'm making money on stocks I have High

play23:28

relative volume is because High relative

play23:31

volume is a byproduct typically of a

play23:34

news Catalyst when you have breaking

play23:37

news and you can have breaking news and

play23:39

a day where Bitcoin is really hot or a

play23:42

day when Apple is really hot it'll

play23:44

usually happen like four times a year

play23:46

when they're putting out their quarterly

play23:47

earnings at least in the case of stocks

play23:49

but there can be Global events that

play23:51

create a catalyst for futures for future

play23:54

commodities for gold things like that

play23:56

for Bitcoin and currency pairs so

play23:59

whatever it is you need the Catalyst the

play24:01

catalyst is what's going to create that

play24:03

high volume so now let's look at this

play24:05

chart in a little bit of a different way

play24:07

we're going to move this out of the way

play24:09

um I'm going to look at the daily chart

play24:11

here on American Electric Power and if

play24:14

we look at the daily chart and we just

play24:16

look at the volume you could see a few

play24:18

days here that have higher volume here a

play24:21

little bit here a little bit here a

play24:24

little bit here so these would be the

play24:25

days that have that it has higher

play24:27

relative volume even in spite of that

play24:29

the relative volume ratio these these

play24:32

Peaks are maybe twice the average

play24:35

they're not that high this one's a

play24:37

little higher but but they're really not

play24:39

that high let's look at

play24:41

Tesla so we're going to look at the

play24:44

volume Peaks on Tesla there aren't many

play24:46

Peaks it has sustained high volume but

play24:49

the relative volume is not particularly

play24:51

High except back here this day was very

play24:54

high volume okay so that day right there

play24:58

that's a day that I would say okay maybe

play25:01

we could consider trading it on that

play25:03

type of day when you have you know

play25:05

significantly higher volume let's look

play25:07

at the S&P 500 for those of you that try

play25:09

to trade the S&P every single day when

play25:11

does the S&P have high relative volume

play25:14

basically never let's get real this is

play25:16

the S&P 500 this doesn't have a usually

play25:20

single days with crazy high volume you

play25:22

had um in March of 2020 when the market

play25:25

dropped 30% that was that was the

play25:28

highest pretty much relative volume

play25:30

Spike that I had seen and and so on that

play25:33

particular day yes and in this sort of

play25:35

stretch these two weeks this was an

play25:37

opportunity if you really wanted to

play25:39

trade the S&P 500 although what I'll say

play25:42

is that there were individual stocks

play25:44

that were even more volatile that are

play25:46

within the S&P 500 that were driving

play25:48

this move that would have been better

play25:50

candidates for trading so on any given

play25:53

day you're looking at these large cap

play25:54

stocks American Electric Power us Steel

play25:58

on mobile whatever these are not

play26:01

volatile enough occasionally you'll have

play26:04

higher relative volume but even when you

play26:06

do more or less the price action there's

play26:09

nothing here to look at so it made sense

play26:12

when I said I'm not seeing anything here

play26:15

because I was focusing on the wrong

play26:18

stocks to trade now for me getting

play26:22

focused on the right stocks to trade the

play26:24

ones that had the five times higher

play26:26

relative volume this only came after a

play26:30

really big loss that I took that blew up

play26:33

my account well it put my account so I

play26:35

had to deposit more money to keep

play26:36

trading the the account wasn't negative

play26:38

which could be if you have a really big

play26:40

mistake but in any case I had to add

play26:42

more money to my account and so During

play26:44

the period where I couldn't trade until

play26:45

I had to add more until I added more

play26:47

money I went through all of my metrics

play26:50

and that's when I began to notice this

play26:52

pattern what I was trying to figure out

play26:54

was you know okay I've been doing this

play26:56

for 18 months where are my winners where

play26:57

are my losers what am I doing right if

play27:00

anything I mean I was feeling pretty

play27:01

defeated so I wasn't sure I was really

play27:02

doing anything right but I looked

play27:04

through my metrics and this is what I

play27:06

noticed my profits predominantly cons

play27:09

consistently most consistently were when

play27:11

we had high relative volume it was also

play27:13

when the in the uh instrument was up

play27:16

more than 10% okay so the opening Gap uh

play27:21

being more than 2% but the instrument

play27:22

being up 10% so then all of a sudden

play27:25

it's like well wait a second this for me

play27:27

was a really big deal because when is

play27:29

the S&P 500 ever up 10% when is Apple

play27:32

ever up 10% never never I mean not in

play27:35

one day it doesn't happen so then all of

play27:38

a sudden it was like wait a second so

play27:41

then what where am I making money and

play27:44

again this is these are real metrics

play27:47

from Real Money trades and my hope for

play27:50

you is that by looking at this you're

play27:53

able to sort of understand the anatomy

play27:55

of the strategy that I'm trading every

play27:56

single day and it's a strategy is

play27:58

working in the market today so my

play28:00

performance is predominantly on lower

play28:03

priced stocks while you'll see that I do

play28:06

have some that are higher price Gamestop

play28:08

right you know I traded that when it was

play28:09

higher price and a few others um

play28:12

predominantly my profit is under $20

play28:15

between 2 and 20 that's really my window

play28:17

where I've got the most profit so I was

play28:20

like okay well so we know we're looking

play28:22

for a relative volume of at least um

play28:25

five times higher we know that we're

play28:27

looking for so this is number one number

play28:29

two we know that the price needs to be

play28:31

up

play28:32

10% number three all right we're looking

play28:35

for um a catalyst because the catalyst

play28:38

is what's creating the interest that's

play28:42

what that's what drives the move that's

play28:44

where the relative volume starts to move

play28:46

up it doesn't move up if you don't have

play28:49

some type of catalyst right and then

play28:52

let's see we'll get out another marker

play28:53

number four we're looking for price

play28:57

between 2 and 20 right so now we're

play29:00

starting to get a little dialed in this

play29:02

is how you start to build a

play29:06

strategy right this is how you build a

play29:09

strategy you've got some parameters and

play29:12

now I can start searching the market

play29:13

every single day for stocks or

play29:16

Commodities you know or currency pairs

play29:19

it wouldn't matter that meet these

play29:21

parameters for being worth considering

play29:23

okay so let's see so let's back this out

play29:26

here for a second all right so um let's

play29:31

see we're going to jump back over to

play29:33

here so I'm using my scanners to find

play29:36

this all in real time so these are these

play29:39

scanners are actually searching the

play29:40

market they're scanning the entire

play29:42

market and then what I do once I see

play29:45

something that's on my scanner like I

play29:46

did right here in the case of WIA is I

play29:49

say well what's the Catalyst what is

play29:52

driving this move I see that we've got

play29:54

news on it jumps on announcing fourth H

play29:56

HDTV PTV license with major TV brand

play30:00

okay so that's the Catalyst now I don't

play30:03

have to be an expert on this stock I

play30:06

don't have to be an expert at this

play30:07

industry all I need to know is that

play30:10

there's a news Catalyst the price is up

play30:13

10% we've got high relative volume the

play30:15

price fits within my wheelhouse of 2 to

play30:18

20 and from there it's game time all

play30:21

right so I pull up the chart and boom

play30:24

nearly

play30:25

$10,000 right here trade trading this

play30:28

move up so I know that this for some of

play30:31

you guys who are newer you know you're

play30:33

like I don't even have $99,000 in my

play30:35

account I don't even have 900 in my

play30:36

account so I'm not going to have $9,000

play30:38

winners anytime soon fair enough but to

play30:41

inspire you and to show you someone

play30:43

who's been doing this for a while is

play30:45

able to extract this kind of profit from

play30:47

this kind of move I hope will help you

play30:49

get focused on trying to find these

play30:51

setups in your own trading and get

play30:54

really good at reading these charts so

play30:56

what we really want to be doing is

play30:58

making sure number one we're keeping our

play31:00

indicators very simple number two we're

play31:03

trading what's obvious and number three

play31:05

you want to build a strategy around

play31:08

what's working so you want to throw this

play31:11

out right here this is way too

play31:12

complicated this is obviously not where

play31:14

you're going to find success and you

play31:16

want to lean in on trading these types

play31:19

of patterns where you're seeing good

play31:20

resolution so this again it's just a

play31:23

screen grab uh from a day where you know

play31:25

up 3500 uh on the day total but look at

play31:28

the patterns here now this is a little

play31:30

higher priced which made it a little

play31:31

riskier for me but look at this move

play31:33

from 36 pull back up to 40 pull back up

play31:37

to 50 that's really clean you know you

play31:40

see a chart like that and you're like

play31:42

wow I mean yeah that makes sense I want

play31:46

to be buying this pullback but again

play31:48

we're only buying that pullback when the

play31:51

volume profile checks out when the macd

play31:54

is open right we still have to check our

play31:56

indicators we got to make sure all of

play31:58

our indicators are checking out before

play32:00

we're taking that trade but if

play32:01

everything checks out then that's where

play32:03

we're going to step up to the platee

play32:04

we're going to say all right I'm going

play32:05

to jump in here I like this setup so

play32:08

this was um this is another example here

play32:11

you've got one two 3 four candles moving

play32:14

up we've got high volume green candles

play32:17

green bars this is preferred sort of a

play32:20

light volume pullback right here we dip

play32:22

back down the first candle makes the new

play32:25

high and for me that's the moment where

play32:28

I'm a buyer so the way I think of these

play32:31

um charts and I think of this because

play32:33

it's what's happening is I think of

play32:34

these waves so if you think of a wave

play32:37

coming in you first get this move up and

play32:40

there are some people who are going to

play32:41

buy down here and just jump in but to be

play32:44

honest the Candlestick chart's not

play32:46

supporting that entry you know people

play32:48

who are buying here are kind of chasing

play32:50

the move and you'll have people that

play32:51

chase the move and that's fine people

play32:52

can do as they'd like but that's not

play32:54

really a good setup I like to wait for

play32:57

that first wave to pull back a little

play32:59

bit and this is the moment of truth

play33:02

because this is where the volume profile

play33:04

is going to either tell us high volume

play33:06

selling this is when the macd is going

play33:08

to cross over we're going to break below

play33:10

our moving averages or we're going to

play33:12

hold and if we hold then at that moment

play33:17

I can now visualize the rest of the

play33:19

pattern I know what's coming next so now

play33:23

what I'm looking for is the moment that

play33:26

the wave sort of shifts so if you think

play33:28

of the tide coming in the wave going out

play33:31

and then you're looking for that next

play33:32

wave to come back in so the way I do

play33:35

this is I'm looking at my indicators I'm

play33:38

looking at my chart and I usually in

play33:41

this area here while we're still selling

play33:42

off actively I'm starting to think okay

play33:45

macd is open the volume profile is

play33:48

acceptable I want to start looking for

play33:50

an entry and what I begin to look for is

play33:53

the first candle to make a new high so

play33:57

we'll actually draw it on this side so

play33:59

when we're talking about first candle to

play34:01

make a new high uh this is something

play34:04

that is so important for timing these

play34:07

waves so we've got the price moving up

play34:10

and then we've got the dip back down

play34:12

right here and the second we have a

play34:16

candle right here that breaks the high

play34:20

of the previous candle that's where I'm

play34:22

getting in

play34:24

so something that we talk about a lot is

play34:27

candles is making new highs see each of

play34:29

these candles are breaking the high of

play34:31

the previous candle that's the high of

play34:33

the previous candle right here that's

play34:35

the high it broke it that's the high it

play34:37

broke it that's the high it broke it

play34:39

that's the high so the high of this

play34:40

candle breaks it right and then when

play34:43

we're pulling back candles are usually

play34:45

making new lows see how these candles

play34:48

are making a new low a new low a new low

play34:50

now if it keeps making new lows I'm not

play34:52

going to buy I'm not just going to get

play34:54

in down here I'm going to wait for the

play34:56

first candle to make a new high right

play35:01

there now these patterns the way uh

play35:05

these types of stocks trade is they're

play35:07

they can be very clean early in the move

play35:10

new High new High new High new low new

play35:12

low new low new High new High new High

play35:14

new high and the reason they're like

play35:16

that is because there's a catalyst

play35:20

that's driving the volume if there

play35:22

wasn't a catalyst driving the volume you

play35:24

wouldn't have it but when you have a

play35:26

catalyst you have new that's pushing it

play35:28

higher pushing it higher pushing it

play35:30

higher pushing it higher and honestly

play35:33

let's just ask ourselves what's the

play35:35

first candle that actually made a new

play35:37

low it's not until all the way right

play35:41

here that was the first candle that made

play35:43

a new low these pulled back but they

play35:45

didn't actually make a new low and then

play35:48

this right here none of these made a new

play35:50

low the low of that candle that red

play35:52

candle this one was not as low so we had

play35:54

one candle that made a new low right

play35:56

there and then and we didn't have

play35:58

another one until right here two candles

play36:00

made new lows in that whole stretch so

play36:03

if you bought at this first candle that

play36:05

made a new low I mean you wouldn't want

play36:07

to buy but but basically you bought

play36:09

because you said okay this is the wave

play36:10

this is the first wave it dipped down

play36:12

and then as soon as that next candle

play36:13

makes the new high that's where you're

play36:15

in so basically right after that candle

play36:17

made a low that's going to be your

play36:19

lowest risk entry and the reason that's

play36:21

the lowest risk entry is because where

play36:23

do you set your stop loss where do you

play36:25

bail out if this doesn't work

play36:28

the low you bail out at the low right

play36:31

there so now this is where you start to

play36:34

get dialed in because you're thinking

play36:35

I'm getting in right here my stop is

play36:38

right here let's just say that's 10

play36:40

cents a share now if I can make 20 cents

play36:43

a share on this position I'm going to

play36:45

have a 2:1 profit to loss ratio right a

play36:50

2 to1 profit to loss ratio means if

play36:52

you're right even just 33% of the time

play36:55

you're break even that let your break

play36:58

even 33% if you write half the time 50%

play37:01

you're profitable now if you had a 1:1

play37:03

ratio 10-cent winners 10-cent losers 50%

play37:06

would be your break even you need to be

play37:07

a little higher to be profitable okay

play37:10

now as you saw from my metrics my

play37:11

accuracy is about 68% and that's

play37:14

produced 12.6 million in gross profit

play37:17

okay so you see how this comes together

play37:19

it's the combination of profit loss

play37:21

ratio and your accuracy that creates

play37:24

profitability so what you're looking at

play37:26

here is is let the first wave happen let

play37:29

it move up and then look for that first

play37:33

dip back down that first pullback candle

play37:36

makes a new low and then right after

play37:39

that the first candle that makes a new

play37:41

high that's where you're a buyer again

play37:43

as long as your indicators are

play37:45

supporting it these are the only

play37:46

indicators I'm using right now and I

play37:48

only recently added macd so for a long

play37:50

time I didn't even use that but in a

play37:52

bare Market in a choppier market I found

play37:54

it helpful so I've kept things really

play37:56

simple for a long time and I've done

play37:59

well as a result you don't need to over

play38:01

complicate it so you let it squeeze up

play38:04

you let it pull back and then you're

play38:06

getting in on that first tip now one of

play38:08

the challenges a lot of beginner Traders

play38:10

have is they'll get in right here and

play38:12

then they're going to sell right here

play38:14

they're like I'm out I'm selling and

play38:17

then they watch this thing you know

play38:19

squeeze all the way up you know to way

play38:22

up here something like that it just

play38:23

keeps moving higher and they're like

play38:25

well holy smokes I so right here for a

play38:28

tiny profit meanwhile this thing went

play38:30

like way higher you could have had like

play38:32

a 5: one profit to loss ratio but you

play38:35

sold early with a one:1 ratio you do

play38:38

that too much what you're going to do is

play38:40

you're going to set the bar higher than

play38:41

necessary for you to be a break even

play38:44

Trader so here's what I would

play38:47

suggest you're going to have that

play38:49

instinct to sell I had it myself why did

play38:52

I have it I had a small account as soon

play38:54

as I had a winner I was like boom I got

play38:56

to get out of this trade I don't want to

play38:58

overstay my welcome I don't want to lose

play38:59

it fear of loss right so once again that

play39:04

fear of loss creeps back in and it's

play39:06

telling me to bail as soon as I've got a

play39:08

little profit sell because the sooner I

play39:11

sell the sooner I've locked it up and

play39:12

made the win are real and it's not going

play39:15

to turn into a loser so here's what I

play39:17

started doing I set up hot keys on my

play39:20

computer so I have these um and I'll

play39:23

show you just show you here just for a

play39:24

second so you could see here so these

play39:26

are the keys that I

play39:28

use and the way I have it set up is um

play39:31

shift one is to buy and contrl Z is to

play39:35

sell my full position and this is

play39:36

selling at the bid contrl X sells half

play39:39

of my position at the bid contrl C sells

play39:41

a quarter of my position and so what I

play39:43

did was I actually took away the sell

play39:45

the sell full position I changed the

play39:47

script on it to only sell half my

play39:50

position because my instinct was to bail

play39:53

out when I was up just a teeny amount I

play39:56

said the only thing I I need to just

play39:58

start you know rewriting that and so

play40:00

when I have the urge to sell the whole

play40:02

thing I'm going to change the script on

play40:04

that button so I'm only selling half of

play40:06

my position and that was a real game

play40:08

Cher for me cuz it kept me in my

play40:10

position longer at least half of it but

play40:12

at the same time it sort of did give me

play40:15

that little bit of gratification that I

play40:16

needed of like locking up a small winner

play40:19

and after I've sold half I adjust my

play40:21

stop to break even on the rest of the

play40:24

position so now I have guarantee that

play40:26

this is going to be a winner now

play40:28

eventually I got better at not selling

play40:31

half until I saw an exit indicator so

play40:36

what do exit indicators look like when

play40:38

we're looking at a stock chart and we're

play40:40

looking at these candlesticks the exit

play40:42

indicator is the first candle that makes

play40:44

a new low so if you've been holding this

play40:48

whole way up and you and you didn't sell

play40:50

any of it then as soon as you have a

play40:52

candle making new low that is an exit

play40:54

indicator because at that point you

play40:55

don't know how much this is going to

play40:57

pull back now as it turns out selling

play41:00

down here wouldn't have been great and

play41:02

you would have actually gotten right

play41:04

back in a moment later but as a beginner

play41:07

Trader you have to have a set of rules

play41:09

that you follow and so you hold until

play41:12

that first candle makes a new low now

play41:14

what some Traders will do is they'll

play41:16

scale out selling half or a quarter

play41:18

scaling out a little bit into profit and

play41:20

there's nothing wrong with doing that

play41:22

especially when you have big green

play41:23

candles like this cuz you have these

play41:25

kind of big green candles it if you

play41:27

don't sell until the first candle goes

play41:29

red well now this is kind of a a large

play41:31

amount that you ended up giving back as

play41:33

it came back down so that's when you do

play41:35

want to start taking profit into a move

play41:38

so when I first get into a trade what do

play41:41

I want to

play41:42

see number one I want to see that when I

play41:45

first get in if I'm getting in down here

play41:47

right if this is my entry right there

play41:49

what are the things that I want to see

play41:50

so let's list them out with a marker

play41:52

that's working well so number one I want

play41:55

to see the price move up

play41:58

right price should move up obviously if

play42:01

I timed my entry correctly and I got

play42:04

into the first candle make a new high

play42:06

the wave is already moving up so I

play42:09

should be getting in here and the wave

play42:10

should just continue higher so that's

play42:12

not a big ask for the price to move up

play42:15

should it move up I you know I would say

play42:17

at least 10 cents within one minute of

play42:19

entering the trade just to quantify it a

play42:20

little bit more so like it should move

play42:22

up pretty quickly number two I want to

play42:26

see um

play42:29

buyers on the time and sales which would

play42:33

be in other words green on the

play42:36

tape so when we're looking at the level

play42:39

two we want to see we've got the bid on

play42:42

the left we've got the ask on the right

play42:44

so you've got something that's like 550

play42:47

by 560 let's say and then you have your

play42:50

time and sales window usually right next

play42:52

to it and this is where what we want to

play42:53

see is a bunch of buy orders going

play42:55

through 560 5

play42:57

65570 green on the tape we want to see a

play43:00

lot of buyers okay these are the two

play43:02

things I absolutely want to see I'd also

play43:05

like to see

play43:07

large green

play43:10

candles okay large green candles so now

play43:15

let's inverse that we'll invert it so if

play43:18

I want to see all of those things in

play43:20

order to feel good about a trade in

play43:24

order for me to see an exit indicator a

play43:27

reason to sell a reason to sell would be

play43:31

I get in and the price is not moving so

play43:34

if I got in right here and the price

play43:36

doesn't go up 10 cents in a minute I'm

play43:37

going to get out if there are not any

play43:39

buyers or green on the tape I'm going to

play43:41

get out if there are not any large green

play43:43

candles I'm going to get out and what

play43:45

might happen just for instance is I'll

play43:48

have an instance where I got in and then

play43:50

the next candle goes red and I get right

play43:52

out now this would not be typical if we

play43:55

had a good volume profile and if all of

play43:57

our indicators checked out but the fact

play44:00

is my accuracy is 68% of the time so 32%

play44:04

of time I'm going to be wrong I'm going

play44:06

to have the right idea but you know I'll

play44:07

be wrong and I just have to cut my loss

play44:09

quickly but if I get in and the price

play44:11

moves higher moves higher moves higher

play44:13

and then up around here let's say right

play44:17

around this area the price sort of stops

play44:20

moving we stop seeing buyers on the

play44:23

level two we start seeing red on the

play44:26

tape

play44:27

or we start to see the formation of a

play44:29

red candle those are exit indicators so

play44:33

we start to get a small red candle up

play44:35

there right that's NE indicator the

play44:37

price is now moving down we now have

play44:40

sellers on the tape and we're having a a

play44:43

red candle it's the opposite of a green

play44:45

candle so sometimes what can be helpful

play44:48

is when I think about everything I want

play44:50

to see for this trade to work I then

play44:52

invert those and those are my exit um

play44:57

exit indicators so my exit indicators

play45:00

here are essentially when I'm not seeing

play45:03

all of the things I need to see for the

play45:05

price to be moving up that has been

play45:08

really helpful for me now if you had the

play45:10

discipline to not sell until you saw an

play45:14

actual exit indicator you would do

play45:17

really well because most Traders

play45:20

including me a lot of the time sell too

play45:23

soon and when you chronically sell too

play45:26

soon unfortunately you're capping your

play45:28

upside profit potential and the fact is

play45:31

what a lot of Traders do when they get

play45:33

into a trade that doesn't work they get

play45:35

into a trade it's a losing position well

play45:38

they don't sell too soon they just keep

play45:40

holding so let's just say you had um a

play45:43

chart like this you had a nice move up

play45:45

you had a little pullback here and then

play45:47

you have one of these candles where the

play45:50

price goes up um and then it comes back

play45:53

down so when you have one of these you

play45:56

got in first candle makes a new high it

play45:58

squeezes up and then it drops back down

play45:59

you didn't sell and then the next candle

play46:02

goes red and it breaks the low now

play46:05

there's a lot of traders who just keep

play46:06

holding and now you're looking at this

play46:08

and it's like you're stair stepping

play46:10

lower you made a new high but it

play46:12

rejected for whatever reason it rejected

play46:15

and the fact is all your technical

play46:16

indicators could check out but there's

play46:19

some guy you know some guy in his stupid

play46:22

office in New York City who has a big

play46:25

sell order up here for 100,000 shares

play46:28

and this guy just ruined the chart it

play46:31

could be one one order one Insider

play46:33

whatever it is he's got that giant cell

play46:35

over there he's blocking the way so okay

play46:38

whatever it happens chalk it up as a

play46:40

loss or get out Break Even or even for a

play46:42

small winner if you're in at a good

play46:44

enough price but do not just continue

play46:47

holding but a lot of Traders do this

play46:49

they'll keep holding and they won't just

play46:51

sell half they'll hold full size all the

play46:55

way down they're going down to the ship

play46:57

and this is a problem because what this

play46:58

does to your profit to loss ratio is

play47:01

your average losers are big because

play47:02

you're holding full position down 50

play47:05

cents a dollar a share or more but

play47:06

whenever you have a 50 Cent winner well

play47:09

you sold half when you're up 10 cents so

play47:11

now even if you sell the other the rest

play47:13

of it up0 50 cents your average winner

play47:15

is still only you know 20 cents or

play47:16

whatever you sold halfway too soon

play47:18

that's the problem so again if you're

play47:21

selling half too soon change those

play47:22

hotkeys change those orders so you're

play47:24

scaling out more slowly into the move

play47:28

and try to teach yourself if you can not

play47:31

to sell until you have a valid exit

play47:34

indicator again success when it comes to

play47:37

reading Candlestick charts can be

play47:38

simplified if you just focus on using

play47:41

fewer indicators focusing on the best

play47:44

setups and building a strategy around

play47:46

where your metrics are showing you have

play47:48

success if you want to download a PDF of

play47:51

the strategy that I'm trading every

play47:52

single day it's pinned to the top of the

play47:55

comments and it's linked in the

play47:56

description you can download it you can

play47:58

print it out you can use it in your own

play47:59

trading and practice it see if it works

play48:01

for you because this is a strategy I've

play48:03

been trading now for more than a decade

play48:05

fulltime so if this episode was

play48:07

interesting and helpful I hope you hit

play48:08

that thumbs up I hope you subscribe to

play48:10

the channel and I'll see you for another

play48:12

upload just like this real soon

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