What Can We Learn From Expert Gamblers?: Dylan Evans at TEDxWestlake
Summary
TLDR本文探讨了所谓的“风险智力”,即在不确定性和风险中做出决策的能力。作者通过研究世界级的赌博专家,发现他们并非仅凭运气,而是运用了特殊的技能和专业知识。这些专家在扑克、二十一点和体育博彩中胜过新手,并通过其专业知识赚取利润。文章还介绍了不同类型的赌博专家,包括扑克玩家、二十一点玩家和体育博彩者,他们各自需要不同的技能。此外,作者还介绍了一个在线测试,用以评估个人的风险智力,并讨论了如何利用概率来做出更好的决策,包括设置阈值、赌注大小和期望值的概念。最后,作者鼓励人们接受不确定性,并在决策中考虑长期视角。
Takeaways
- 🎯 风险智能:演讲者认为存在一种特殊的智能,用于思考风险和不确定性,称之为风险智能。
- 👨💼 专家赌徒:并非所有赌徒都是不理智的,专家赌徒通过技巧和专业知识在赌博中取得成功。
- 🃏 扑克玩家:专家赌徒中的扑克玩家,通过阅读对手和心理战术在锦标赛中获得名声和财富。
- 🃡 21点玩家:与扑克玩家不同,21点玩家更注重系统性的游戏策略,而非心理战术。
- 🏇 体育博彩者:体育博彩者通过分析各种因素来预测比赛结果,分为使用计算机模型和直觉判断两种类型。
- 📊 专家直觉:专家赌徒通过复杂的线性方程来预测赛马结果,尽管他们可能不了解统计建模。
- 🧠 风险智能测试:演讲者开发了一个在线测试来评估个人的风险智能,即对不确定性的判断能力。
- 📉 概率决策:使用概率来做出决策,包括设定阈值、赌注大小和预期值的概念。
- 💡 决策的长视角:专家赌徒通过考虑长期预期值来做出决策,而不是被短期结果所影响。
- 🚫 接受不确定性:演讲者强调接受不确定性是做出更好决策的关键,即使这意味着面对失败。
- 🔄 风险智能的平衡:风险智能测试衡量的是个人对自己知识程度的判断能力,过度自信或不自信都会受到惩罚。
Q & A
什么是所谓的'风险智能'?
-风险智能是指思考风险和不确定性的一种特殊智能,它能帮助人们在面对不确定性时做出更好的决策。
心理学家通常如何研究赌博者?
-心理学家在研究赌博者时,往往只关注问题赌博者,而忽视了赌博专家,这就像研究肥胖症而忽略了燕麦食品,或者研究酗酒而忽略了优质葡萄酒。
为什么说赌博专家与问题赌博者和休闲赌博者不同?
-赌博专家通过赌博赚取利润,而问题赌博者和休闲赌博者从长远来看都会亏损。问题赌博者是因为他们下注超出了他们的承受能力,而休闲赌博者则是下注并输掉相对较小的金额。
专家赌博者与休闲赌博者在赌博动机上有何不同?
-专家赌博者赌博主要是出于冷静理性的利润追求和一定程度的智力满足,而休闲赌博者更多是为了游戏的刺激和赢得的肾上腺素冲动。
专家赌博者的世界由哪三个不同的群体组成?
-专家赌博者的世界由扑克玩家、21点玩家和体育赌徒三个不同的群体组成,每个群体都需要不同的技能。
扑克玩家需要哪些技能?
-扑克玩家需要具备业余心理学家的技能,擅长读懂人,判断别人是否在虚张声势以及自己虚张声势。
21点玩家通常是什么样的玩家?
-21点玩家是专注、坚定、专注的系统玩家,他们不太需要心理学意识。
体育赌徒可以细分为哪两个子群体?
-体育赌徒可以细分为计算机化体育赌徒和老式直观体育赌徒,前者需要编程能力,后者则完全依靠自己的直觉。
如何理解专家赌徒在预测赛马获胜机会时使用的复杂线性方程?
-专家赌徒在预测赛马获胜机会时,虽然他们没有意识到,但实际上他们使用的是一种包含七个变量的复杂线性方程,这些变量与赛马在之前比赛中的表现有关。
风险智能测试是如何进行的,它测量的是什么?
-风险智能测试包含50个陈述句,参与者需要评估每个陈述的真实可能性,并以百分比形式表达。这个测试测量的是个人的自我知识,即他们对自己在每种情况下的确定性或不确定性的准确判断能力。
如何使用概率来做出更好的决策?
-使用概率做出决策的方法包括设置阈值、赌注大小和预期值。设置阈值是根据个人对结果的信心来决定是否采取行动;赌注大小是根据个人对结果的信心来决定下注的金额;预期值则是考虑如果无限次重复同一赌注,平均会赢得或失去的金额。
专家赌博者如何利用预期值来做出决策?
-专家赌博者在做出决策时,会考虑预期值,即如果无限次重复同一赌注,平均会赢得或失去的金额。他们将决策放在更长的时间范围内考虑,从而超越了短期的得失。
为什么专家赌博者能够更好地控制自己的赌博行为?
-专家赌博者能够更好地控制自己的赌博行为,因为他们将决策放在更长的时间范围内考虑,并且认识到总有下一次机会,因此他们不会在单次赌博中冒险过多。
为什么接受运气的不可预测性对于赌博者来说很重要?
-接受运气的不可预测性对于赌博者来说很重要,因为这有助于他们理解即使有出色的风险智能和决策方法,也不能保证总是赢。这有助于他们保持冷静,避免因一时的运气不佳而做出冲动的决策。
Outlines
🎰 赌博专家的智慧:风险智能
本段讲述了作者多年来采访世界上最成功的赌徒,发现他们拥有一种特殊的思考风险和不确定性的能力,即所谓的风险智能。作者指出,心理学家通常只关注问题赌徒,忽略了赌徒中的专家。这些专家在扑克、二十一点和体育博彩等游戏中表现出色,与问题赌徒和休闲赌徒不同,他们能够长期盈利。专家赌徒分为三个群体:扑克玩家、二十一点玩家和体育博彩者,每个群体都有其独特的技能。作者还提到了对老式直觉体育博彩者的兴趣,他们不依赖编程,而是凭借直觉进行博彩。
🏇 赛马场的直觉博彩者:风险预测能力
本段介绍了两位心理学家Cesi和Leica在1980年代对Delaware州Brandywine Raceway的赛马场常客进行的研究。他们发现这些常客分为两组:一组能够准确预测赛马的赔率,另一组则与普通赌徒无异。经过四年的研究,Cesi和Leica发现这些专家赌徒在预测赛马获胜几率时,实际上是在无意识中运用了一个包含七个变量的复杂线性方程。这些专家赌徒并没有意识到自己在使用统计建模,但他们能够凭借直觉得出接近实际获胜几率的数字,这体现了他们的风险智能。
📊 风险智能测试:自我认知的重要性
作者提出了一个在线的风险智能测试,旨在测量个人的风险智能商数(RQ)。测试包含50个陈述,参与者需要评估每个陈述为真的可能性,用百分比表示。这个测试不同于传统的知识测试,它衡量的是个人的自我认知能力,即对自己确定性或不确定性的准确判断。作者指出,即使是知识渊博的人,如果过于自信,也可能在这个测试中表现不佳,因为测试惩罚了过度自信。
🎯 利用概率做决策:风险智能的应用
本段讨论了如何利用风险智能来做出更好的决策。作者提出了三种使用概率的方法:设定决策阈值、根据信心大小下注以及使用期望值概念。期望值是一个抽象概念,代表如果无限次下注,平均每次下注可能赢得或失去的金额。专家赌徒在决策时会考虑期望值,从而超越短期结果,从长远的角度考虑问题。作者强调,即使拥有出色的风险智能,也不能保证总是赢,但接受不确定性是做出理性决策的关键。
🤷♂️ 接受不确定性:与运气和解
最后一段中,作者以电影《Rookie》中的角色Clint Eastwood的话结束演讲,强调了接受不确定性的重要性。他鼓励听众与运气和解,认识到运气是无法控制的,但不要因此而绝望。作者引用了Damon Runyon的话,说明即使不是最快的或最强的,也有可能赢得比赛,但那是值得下注的方式。
Mindmap
Keywords
💡风险智能
💡专家赌徒
💡问题赌徒
💡休闲赌徒
💡扑克玩家
💡二十一点玩家
💡体育博彩者
💡风险评估
💡风险智能测试
💡预期价值
💡风险阈值
Highlights
作者通过采访世界顶级赌徒,探索了一种特殊的风险智力。
心理学家通常只研究问题赌徒,而忽略了专家赌徒的决策智慧。
并非所有赌徒都是愚蠢的,专家赌徒通过技巧和专业知识在扑克、二十一点和体育博彩中胜过新手。
专家赌徒与问题赌徒和休闲赌徒的区别在于长期盈利能力,而非金钱。
专家赌徒追求的是冷静理性的利润,而非赌博的刺激感。
专家赌徒的世界由三个不同的群体组成:扑克玩家、二十一点玩家和体育博彩者,每个群体都需要不同的技能。
扑克玩家擅长读懂人心,二十一点玩家是系统性玩家,而体育博彩者分为计算机化和直觉型两种。
作者对直觉型体育博彩者特别感兴趣,他们能够在头脑中进行复杂的统计建模。
Steven cesie和Jeffrey Leica的研究揭示了专家赌徒如何无意识地预测赛马结果。
专家赌徒能够通过七个变量的复杂线性方程来预测赛马的获胜概率。
风险智力是指从多种信息源中获取信息,经过大脑处理后得出概率估计的能力。
作者创建了一个在线测试来评估个人的风险智力,测试包括50个陈述,要求评估者对每个陈述的真实性给出百分比。
风险智力测试测量的是自我知识,即了解自己对每个情况的确定性或不确定性的能力。
风险智力测试不惩罚过度自信或过度谦虚,而是奖励适当的自信水平。
使用概率进行决策的三种方法:设定阈值、赌注大小和期望值。
专家赌徒通过考虑期望值来做出决策,这使他们能够在更长的时间范围内思考。
专家赌徒通过在更长的时间范围内考虑决策,展现出一种冷静的决策态度。
专家赌徒知道何时不投注,这是他们与休闲赌徒和问题赌徒区别的关键。
即使拥有出色的风险智力,也不能保证总是赢,但接受不确定性是决策的一部分。
Transcripts
I've spent the last few years
interviewing some of the most successful
gamblers in the world and it's not just
because I like spending my time in
casinos I've got a hunch that there's a
special kind of intelligence for
thinking about risk and uncertainty
something I call risk
intelligence
so if psychologists study gamblers at
all they tend to focus exclusively on
problem gamblers but that's like
studying obesity and neglecting oat
Cuisine or studying alcoholism and
neglecting Fine
Wines not all gamblers are
fools some of them are experts and I
think we can all learn a lot about how
to make better decisions by studying the
way these expert gamblers
think the very
idea of an expert Gambler seems odd to
some
people surely gambling is just a matter
of luck they say but that's not true
sure slot machines and roulette are
games of pure chance so there's no room
for expertise
there but poker Blackjack and all kinds
of sports betting offer the opportunity
to exercise skill and
expertise expert gamblers outperform
novices in these games and their
expertise can make them very
rich and it's this ability to earn money
to earn a profit from gambling that sets
the expert gamblers apart from the
problem gamblers and the Leisure
gamblers the problem gamblers and the
Leisure gamblers both lose money over
the long term the main difference is
that the Le the problem gamblers bet
more than they can afford to lose while
the Leisure gamblers bet and lose
relatively small amounts but it's not
really the money these people are
playing for in the end it's more the
thrill of winning the adrenaline rush of
the
game with the expert gamblers things are
very different for them it really
doesn't thrill them that much to win
think of it if every time you pulled the
arm of a slot machine it paid out soon
it wouldn't be fun it would be
work and for these gamblers these EX
expert
gamblers it is more of a cold rational
pursuit of profit that motivates them
that and a certain degree of
intellectual
satisfaction so as I learned more about
the world of the expert Gambler I
discovered that it was comprised of
three distinct tribes first you have
the poker players the rock stars of the
gambling world who earn win fame and
fortune on the tournament
circuit then you have the poker
players more private
austere somewhat dismissive of the
glitzy celebrity of the poker players
and finally you have the sports betters
who gamble on everything from golf and
horse racing to football and college
basketball and each of these tribes
exhibits and requires a distinct skill
set the poker players are skilled
amateur psychologists skilled at reading
people at telling when people are
bluffing and at bluffing
themselves the blackjack players are
dedicated determined focused systems
players without much need for
psychological
awareness and the sports betters can be
further subdivided into two distinct
subgroups on the one hand there are the
computerized Sports betters and
obviously they what they need most of
all is the ability to program and on the
other hand you have the what I call the
old-fashioned intuitive Sports betters
the people who do it all in their heads
and those are the people that most
interest me and what got me interested
in this group was a fascinating paper I
read some time ago by two American
psychologists called
Steven cesie and Jeffrey Leica and cesie
and Leica back in the 1980s fresh out of
grad school they visited Brandy Wine
Raceway a horse racing venue in Delaware
and they interviewed 30 Avid racetrack
patrons men they were all men they went
to the racetrack every day of their
working lives they didn't make their
money from gambling it was just fun but
they were absolutely obsessed with it
they would go to the racetrack and cesi
and Leica found that they fell into two
distinct groups 14 of them were just
incredibly good at forecasting the odds
the final odds that would be offered on
the horses just prior to the race which
is a pretty good Guide to the
probability of the horse actually
winning and the other 16 were no better
really than the average
punter so over the course of four years
talking to these guys studying them
interviewing them cesi and Leica figured
out that the best way to model what the
expert gamblers were doing when they
were thinking about predicting the
horse's chance of winning the
race was to model it as a complex linear
equation consisting of seven variables
Each of which related to the hores
performance in previous races like its
average speed its uh average uh
finishing position and so on but of
course these expert gamblers they didn't
know anything about linear aggression
they'd never heard of statistical
modeling they were doing it all
unconsciously in their heads they okay
they knew what information to pay
attention to they would gather the
information consciously but then when it
came to mulling it around in their heads
they had kind of just
literally think about it somehow they
didn't know what they were doing but
then out of nowhere a number would pop
into their heads and that number was
always remarkably close to the horse's
actual chance of winning the race and
it's that that I call risk intelligence
it's that ability to gather information
from a wide variety of sources mul it
over in your head and come out with an
estimate a probability
estimate Now by now I hope you're all
wondering what your risk intelligence is
like and I've created an online test
where you can find out it's free and
anyone can take it you just go to
www. projection point.com or just Google
risk intelligence you'll get it and the
test
is what it asks you to do it consists of
50 statements some true some
false and your task is to say How likely
it is that you think each statement is
true and to express that as a
percentage what we're doing here is we
are
using percentages to express our own
degree of certainty or
uncertainty so if you think that the
sentence is definitely false you'll give
it a 0% chance of being true that means
you're completely certain that it's
false on the other hand if you're
completely certain that the statement is
true you'll express that by giving it a
100%
chance if you have absolutely no idea is
it true or false you express that by
giving it a 50% chance it's 50/50 you've
got no idea you might as well toss a
coin but if you've got a hunch that it's
true it's probably true but you're not
absolutely sure you would Express that
by giving it a 60% chance a 70% chance
80 or 90 depending on how sure you are
and if you think it's probably false but
you're not entirely sure you express
that by saying it's 40 30 20 10% again
depending depending on how sure you
are so when you've done the test the
website figures out a number between
zero and 100 which is your risk
intelligence score your RQ your risk
intelligence quotient and just as IQ is
a measure of your general intelligence
RQ is a measure of your risk
intelligence and the interesting thing
about this test the unusual thing about
it is that you can do quite well even if
you don't know much and that's because
this test is it's not measuring your
knowledge it's measuring your self-
knowledge if you like it's measuring
your ability to know how much you know
and to judge accurately your own degree
of certainty or uncertainty in each
situation and that's why I think some of
my brightest students often find it more
challenging than some of my more average
students because the brightest ones have
been rewarded all their lives for
knowing stuff and praise for knowing a
bunch of facts and as a result they've
often become overconfident and this test
punishes
overconfidence it also punishes
underconfidence the point is not to be
you know ridiculously humble either the
point is having the right amount of
confidence in each situation depending
on how much you know or don't know in
each
situation so how can all this help us
make better
decisions some
people even if they find the subject
interesting they say well look how how
can this help me actually make better
quality decisions and I think the puzzle
for these people arises because we're
all used to knowing how to make use of
categorical information if someone says
to you it's going to rain tomorrow
there's no brainer you take your
umbrella but if someone says to you look
there's a 60% chance that it will rain
tomorrow what do you do do you take your
umbrella or not we're not really taught
how to make decisions on the basis of
Uncertain
information so I want to finish off by
just describing three simple ways in
which you can use probabilities when
making your
decisions the first way is simply to set
a
threshold so for example you might say
well I'm only going to ask this person
out on a date if I think that there's a
60% chance that they will say yes and
the great thing about this method is of
course that everybody can set their
thresholds differently at different
levels depending on
how desperate you are to go on a
date and and how much you hate being
rejected the second way to make
decisions on the basis of probabilities
is BET sizing and this
means betting an amount that is
proportional to your confidence so for
example you could decide to buy more or
less shares in various companies
depending on how strongly you believe
that each company was going to do well
but this of course depends crucially on
having an appropriate degree of
confidence overconfidence is going to be
fatal here so again you can only use
this method of decision-making if you've
got good risk
intelligence the third and most complex
way of using probabilities when you make
decisions is to use the concept of
expected value and expect value is an
abstract concept it doesn't refer to any
actual win or loss it refers to the
average amount that you would win or
lose if you place the same bet an
infinite number of times but this
ethereal abstract figure takes on an
almost
physical nature for the expert gamblers
that that I've interviewed when they
look at a roulette table or a blackjack
game an ex the expert Camas don't
see the maximum amount that they could
win or lose they're not hypnotized by
this like the rest of us they just see
the average amount that they could win
or lose per bet the expected value
that's what really is at the Forefront
of their mind and by placing their
decisions as it were in the con in by
thinking about this decision in this way
in the terms of expected value they
Place their decisions in the context of
a much longer time
Horizon
so they kind of rise above the
moment
now one of the uh in the long run as
Keen said we're all dead so even expert
gamblers are mortal and they have finite
number of decisions but you know despite
what the guy said in the video that we
just watched before we broke about the
importance of you know remembering we're
mortal that does have a disadvantage it
tends to make people Reckless if you
think this is the last race the last
roll of the dice you might bet
everything on it the expert gamblers in
a sense by seeing things in a much
longer time Horizon almost act as if
they were Immortal and because of that
they kind of gain a certain coolness
about their decision-making they can
take it or leave it as one expert
Gambler told me there's always another
race I don't have to bet my bank rooll
on this Thro of the die or this horse
race now I can come back tomorrow and
it's when knowing no when not to bet
that is really one of the crucial things
that sets the experts apart from the
Leisure gamblers the problem
gamblers now of course luck can always
go against you there's no guarantee that
even if you have excellent risk
intelligence and even if you use these
decision-making methods that you'll
always win but if that thought upsets
you then you haven't yet come to terms
with the irreducibility of
chance as Nick pulovski says the
character played by Clint Eastwood in
the rookie if you want a
guarantee buy a
toaster so I want to end this lecture by
saying by urging you to make your peace
with
chance just accept that you can't
control her or cool her accept that she
doesn't care about you and she never
will but don't
despair as Damon ran once said the race
is not always to the Swift nor the
battle always to the
strong but that's the way to
bet thank
[Applause]
you
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