How Do I Engage Markets When I Don't Have An Initial Bias?

Summary

In this video, the speaker provides a technical analysis of NASDAQ futures, focusing on using various time frames (daily, hourly, 15-minute, 1-minute) to identify key market patterns, such as volume imbalances and fair value gaps. The strategy involves tracking price action within the first hour of trading, marking key support and resistance levels, and adjusting positions based on the upper or lower halves of the opening range. The speaker also shares a real-world example of demo trading, emphasizing a cautious, analytical approach to market decisions and risk management.

Takeaways

• 😀 The video focuses on analyzing the NASDAQ futures contract for March delivery and uses technical analysis to guide the discussion.
• 😀 The speaker attempts to incorporate artificial intelligence features, like language translation, into the video, but is unsure if the attempt will succeed due to time constraints.
• 😀 The speaker utilizes the daily chart for NASDAQ futures to identify volume imbalances and uses toggling settings to highlight the most significant ones.
• 😀 The speaker discusses the importance of identifying buy and sell sides on the daily time frame, particularly around key price levels like the suspension block and relative highs.
• 😀 The analysis revolves around the concept of price action and understanding the key levels, including suspension blocks, which can signal potential market movements.
• 😀 The speaker mentions that while long-term trends are important, short-term fluctuations and price action are critical for making trade decisions in the moment.
• 😀 The session includes a focus on using different time frames (daily, 1-hour, 15-minute, and 1-minute) to refine the trading strategy and manage risk.
• 😀 A key strategy discussed is using the first hour of market trading to assess directionality and adjust trading focus based on whether the market is bullish or bearish.
• 😀 The speaker emphasizes waiting for more information from the market before committing to trades, particularly when unsure about the direction or when news events are expected.
• 😀 The use of gradient levels within the first hour's range is highlighted as a crucial tool to track potential price targets and confirm bullish or bearish setups.
• 😀 The speaker shares a real-world example of using the market maker buy model to make live demo trades, managing positions, and using stop-losses effectively within a volatile market.

Q & A

What is the primary focus of this video?

The video focuses on a technical review of the NASDAQ futures contract for March delivery, where the speaker explains their analysis process using various time frames and trading strategies, such as volume imbalances, suspension blocks, and the first hour's trading range.

How does the speaker use the 'set button' for their analysis?

The speaker uses the 'set button' in the lower right-hand side of their chart to toggle and highlight exaggerated volume imbalances, which helps identify key points for analysis. The most exaggerated volume imbalances are usually chosen for further examination.

What does the speaker mean by 'suspension block'?

A 'suspension block' refers to a specific price level on the chart that has been marked by the speaker, which they expect could act as a significant support or resistance level in the market. This block is important for identifying potential price movement areas.

What is the role of the 'first hour's trading range' in the analysis?

The first hour's trading range is critical for the speaker's analysis, as they use it to establish the highest high and lowest low within that range. The upper half of this range is especially important when the market is bullish, as it helps identify potential areas where the price might reverse or continue its movement.

Why does the speaker wait for news events like 9:45 or 10:00 before making trades?

The speaker waits for news events to avoid entering trades prematurely. They prefer to see how the market reacts to the news before making a decision, especially when the market is volatile or uncertain. The first hour of trading often gives clearer signals after the news has been digested.

What does the speaker mean by 'market maker buy model'?

The 'market maker buy model' refers to a pattern of price action that the speaker observes, where the market experiences stages of consolidation and distribution. It typically involves a series of price moves that ultimately lead to a reversal or significant price movement, which the speaker uses for making trade decisions.

What strategy does the speaker use for setting stop losses?

The speaker sets stop losses based on significant price levels, usually just below important lows, as a way to limit risk. They acknowledge that their stop loss may be wider than usual due to current market volatility, but they prefer not to take excessive risks by using tight stop losses in such conditions.

What role do 'gradient levels' play in the speaker's analysis?

Gradient levels are key price points that the speaker identifies within the first hour's trading range. These levels are used to determine areas of support or resistance and to guide decisions on whether to enter or exit trades, based on whether the market is moving toward or away from them.

What is the significance of the 'consequent encroachment' level?

The 'consequent encroachment' level represents a key price level where the market has shown resistance or support in the past. The speaker uses this level to gauge where price may reverse or continue its direction. In this context, it acted as a target for price action, and the speaker exited their position once the price hit this level.

Why does the speaker use demo accounts for their trading?

The speaker uses demo accounts to practice their strategies and avoid taking unnecessary risks with real money, especially when the market is volatile or uncertain. They mention using demo accounts until they see more clarity or improvement in market conditions.