The Worst Genres to Write in 2026 (Based on Publishing Industry Data)

Summary

In this video, the speaker dives into the 2026 genre trends in publishing, analyzing data from Query Tracker to identify the most popular and in-demand genres. Fantasy, romance, and young adult fiction dominate, but some genres like horror and upmarket fiction present opportunities for authors. The video also highlights oversaturated genres, such as historical fiction and children's books, and provides insights into what literary agents are seeking. The speaker emphasizes that while trends can guide authors, writing what you’re passionate about remains crucial for creating a successful manuscript.

Takeaways

• 😀 Fantasy continues to dominate both the supply and demand sides of the publishing industry, making it the hottest genre right now.
• 😀 While romance is very popular, especially on platforms like BookTok, sub-genres like contemporary romance, fantasy romance, and romcoms are gaining traction.
• 😀 Young adult (YA) fiction remains highly popular, though it is technically an age category, and fantasy sub-genres are also on the rise.
• 😀 There are currently five genres (children's, science fiction, historical fiction, picture books, and middle grade) that are showing more supply than demand, indicating potential oversaturation.
• 😀 The children's book market has been struggling, with fewer agents seeking debut authors in categories like middle grade and picture books.
• 😀 Despite the oversaturation in children's genres, novels with unique hooks, shorter word counts, or graphic novels are still in demand.
• 😀 Science fiction has struggled to maintain momentum in publishing, despite strong success in film adaptations of sci-fi books like 'Dune' and 'The Three-Body Problem.'
• 😀 Historical fiction is still a strong category with established authors performing well, but agents seem less interested in debut novels in this space right now.
• 😀 Horror and upmarket fiction represent potential opportunities for authors. Horror is experiencing a cultural moment, and upmarket fiction blends accessibility with thematic depth and literary quality.
• 😀 Upmarket fiction is in demand and especially popular with book clubs, as it offers page-turning plots combined with emotionally resonant themes.
• 😀 Genre trends shift frequently, so writers should focus on writing what they love rather than chasing market trends. Good books across all genres get published every year.

Q & A

What is the focus of the video in terms of the publishing industry trends?

The video focuses on analyzing genre trends in the publishing industry as of December 2025, identifying which genres are popular, oversaturated, or underrepresented based on data from Query Tracker, a platform that collects information on manuscripts submitted to literary agents.

Why should authors not change their writing based solely on publishing industry trends?

The speaker advises against changing one's writing to match market trends because genre trends shift constantly, and trying to write what agents want instead of what the author genuinely wants to write can lead to weaker manuscripts.

What is the primary value of using Query Tracker's database for authors?

Query Tracker’s database provides authors with insights into what genres agents are most interested in by comparing the genres of submitted manuscripts to those agents are actively requesting. This helps authors understand which genres have more supply than demand and which ones agents are eager to see more of.

What genre consistently topped both the most submitted and most requested lists?

Fantasy topped both the most submitted and most requested lists, indicating it is currently one of the hottest genres in the publishing industry.

What are the genres that are considered oversaturated according to the data?

Genres that are considered oversaturated include children's fiction (excluding YA), science fiction, historical fiction, picture books, and middle-grade novels. These genres have a high number of manuscripts being submitted but not as many requests from agents.

What factors have contributed to the slowdown in children's fiction, especially middle grade?

The slowdown in children's fiction, particularly middle-grade books, has been attributed to factors like slipping sales, budget cuts in schools and libraries, censorship battles, and declining reading scores among school-aged children.

Why is science fiction not seeing the same success in books as it is in film?

While science fiction is thriving in films, it has not seen the same success in the book market. This could be because recent popular sci-fi novels were largely successful due to their film or TV adaptations, and there hasn't been a significant breakout sci-fi book like fantasy has had.

What genres are showing the most opportunity in 2026?

Horror and upmarket fiction are identified as the biggest opportunities in 2026. Both genres show a high demand from agents but have relatively few authors submitting manuscripts in these areas.

What is upmarket fiction, and why is it gaining interest?

Upmarket fiction blends accessible, engaging writing with thematic depth and elevated prose. It appeals to readers looking for emotionally resonant yet page-turning books, often suited for book clubs. The rising popularity of book clubs and reading retreats is driving interest in this genre.

What is the speaker’s final recommendation for authors in regard to genre trends?

The speaker recommends that authors should focus on writing what they truly want to write, not chase trends. Even if a genre isn't popular right now, great books from all genres are still being published every year, and an exceptional concept can transcend trends and possibly even spark the next wave.