Jonathan Blow on Rigged RNG in Games ("Sid Meiering")

Summary

The speaker passionately criticizes games, particularly the XCOM remakes, for misleading players about probability outcomes, arguing this undermines strategic depth and learning. They express concern that players might apply skewed probability understanding to real life, highlighting the betrayal of trust in games that manipulate perceived odds for player satisfaction. The critique also touches on the ethical implications of altering player perception of risk and reward.

Takeaways

• 🎮 The speaker criticizes games that misrepresent probabilities to players, using XCOM remakes as an example.
• 📊 The speaker argues that games should not 'fudge' probabilities as it undermines the strategic depth of the gameplay.
• 🤔 The speaker believes that players can't make optimal tactical decisions if the game lies about risk assessment.
• 🧠 The speaker suggests that playing games is a form of learning, and misleading probabilities can lead to incorrect learning.
• 🚫 The speaker feels betrayed when games lie about probabilities, as it goes against the essence of what makes games engaging.
• 🔢 The speaker mentions that the probability equations in XCOM remakes are skewed to make 'acceptable shots' more likely to hit than they should be.
• 🕳 The speaker points out a gap in the probability distribution, where probabilities between 50% and 60% are rarely seen, creating a false sense of risk.
• 🧩 The speaker discusses the concept of 'Sid Meiering', referring to the idea of altering game mechanics to make them feel better rather than being accurate.
• 🤷‍♂️ The speaker expresses frustration with the game's RNG (Random Number Generator), suspecting it might be 'CID mired' or broken.
• 😠 The speaker recounts a Game Developers Conference speech by Sid Meier that they found misguided and dismissive of expert gamers' needs.
• 🌐 The speaker concludes by emphasizing the importance of truth in game design, stating that 'telling the truth is dangerous business'.

Q & A

What is the main issue the speaker has with certain games?

The speaker criticizes games that misrepresent probabilities to the player, specifically calling out the XCOM remakes for 'lying' about the chances of success in combat scenarios.

Why does the speaker believe games should not misrepresent probabilities?

The speaker argues that games claiming to be tactical should allow players to make informed decisions based on accurate risk assessment, and that misrepresentation of probabilities hinders this.

What does the speaker suggest is the consequence of games lying about probabilities?

The speaker suggests that it limits the depth of the game experience and prevents players from becoming refined tacticians due to the inability to accurately judge risk.

What does the speaker imply about the role of play in learning?

The speaker implies that play, even in adulthood, is a form of learning, and that games can mislead players about real-world concepts, such as probability, which could lead to mistakes in life.

What does the speaker think about the adjusted probabilities in the XCOM remakes?

The speaker believes that the adjusted probabilities create a false impression of risk assessment, leading to a 'deep betrayal' of the game's theme of tactical decision-making.

What is the speaker's view on the impact of games on players' understanding of probability?

The speaker is concerned that games that misrepresent probabilities can distort players' understanding and feeling towards probability, potentially causing them to make incorrect judgments in real life.

What does the speaker mention about the specific probabilities in the XCOM remakes?

The speaker mentions that the game only modifies probabilities for 'acceptable shots' that are 50% or higher, leaving probabilities below 50% mostly unaltered.

What is the speaker's opinion on the concept of 'Sid Meiering' as it relates to game design?

The speaker is critical of 'Sid Meiering', a term used to describe the act of adjusting game probabilities to make them feel more favorable to the player, which the speaker believes is misleading and unethical.

What does the speaker suggest about the player's perception of the game's RNG after experiencing bad luck?

The speaker suggests that after a string of bad luck, the player may lose trust in the game's random number generator, feeling that it is either broken or intentionally rigged.

What does the speaker recall about Sid Meier's Game Developers Conference speech?

The speaker recalls being disappointed by Sid Meier's speech advocating for the manipulation of die rolls in games to create a more favorable perception of probabilities, which the speaker found to be a poor design philosophy.

What does the speaker believe is necessary for a game to regain the player's trust after losing it?

The speaker believes that for a game to regain trust, it would need to demonstrate consistent, believable randomness, and possibly allow the player to have a positive experience that counters the previous negative one.