The Map of Doom | Apocalypses Ranked

Summary

In this thought-provoking video, the creator explores the various threats to humanity, comparing and visualizing their potential impact using a 'Doom Chart.' From asteroid impacts and supervolcanoes to climate change, pandemics, and genetic engineering, the video examines both the likelihood and casualties of each disaster. The creator discusses real data, including the severity of climate change and its projected toll, while acknowledging the difficulty in predicting low-probability existential threats like rogue AI or gamma-ray bursts. Ultimately, the video encourages reflection on which risks we should prioritize mitigating to secure humanity's future.

Takeaways

• 😀 The video explores various existential threats to humanity, comparing their potential impact and likelihood of occurrence.
• 🌍 The pandemic exposed humanity's unpreparedness for global crises, prompting a deeper look at other possible disasters.
• 📊 The risks of different disasters are assessed using a 'doom chart,' plotting their casualty potential and likelihood of happening.
• 🌌 Disasters range from natural events like asteroid impacts and earthquakes to more human-made ones like pandemics and climate change.
• 💥 Earthquakes are a frequent threat, causing around 10,000 deaths annually, but they are generally localized and not a global extinction risk.
• 🪐 Asteroid impacts, while unlikely, could cause massive casualties, especially from large objects (e.g., 10-km asteroids), potentially leading to extinction.
• 🌋 Supervolcanoes, though rare, can have catastrophic global effects, like crop failures and mass starvation, similar to asteroid impacts.
• 🦠 Pandemics, like COVID-19, represent significant biological threats, with historical pandemics (e.g., Spanish flu) killing millions, but ongoing risks also include antibiotic resistance.
• 🔥 Climate change is a growing threat, causing around 150,000 deaths annually, with projections suggesting this could rise significantly by 2050.
• ⚠️ Other threats include nuclear war, artificial intelligence gone rogue, and speculative risks like gamma-ray bursts, rogue black holes, or alien invasions, though their likelihood is extremely low.

Q & A

What is the main purpose of the video?

The main purpose of the video is to explore various global threats to humanity and assess them based on their potential casualties and likelihood, to help determine which risks we should focus on mitigating.

How does the video visualize the various threats to humanity?

The video uses a scatter plot called the 'doom chart,' where the horizontal axis represents the potential number of casualties (ranging from 1,000 to 8 billion) and the vertical axis represents the likelihood of each event happening (from yearly occurrences to once every billion years).

What two key factors are used to assess the threats in the video?

The two key factors used to assess the threats are the potential number of casualties each disaster could cause and the likelihood of that event happening.

What is the significance of the 'doom chart' in the video?

The 'doom chart' allows the viewer to compare and contrast different potential disasters based on their likelihood and the potential number of casualties. It helps highlight which disasters pose the biggest threats to humanity and deserve more attention.

Why are some events categorized as 'freak accidents' on the chart?

Events categorized as 'freak accidents' are those that are very unlikely to happen but could cause significant harm if they did. Examples include asteroid strikes or shark attacks, which are low-probability but still pose a risk.

How does the video assess the threat of asteroid impacts?

The video uses real data from past asteroid impacts, sky surveys, and the size distribution of near-Earth objects to estimate the likelihood of an asteroid impact. Smaller asteroids hit frequently, but larger ones (140 meters and above) can cause global catastrophes, with a very low chance of occurring.

What are the risks associated with super volcanoes, as discussed in the video?

Super volcanoes erupt roughly once every 100,000 years, and their consequences are similar to asteroid impacts, causing massive crop failures and global cooling. The video stresses that there is nothing we can do to prevent such eruptions, but we can work to make food systems more resilient.

What other biological threats to humanity are mentioned in the video?

In addition to pandemics, the video highlights threats like antibiotic-resistant bacteria, which currently cause 700,000 deaths per year and are expected to cause 10 million deaths annually by 2050. Genetic engineering and synthetic biology also pose risks, but their likelihood and potential death toll are hard to quantify.

How does climate change compare to pandemics in terms of risk?

The video argues that while pandemics like COVID-19 are high-profile, climate change may be an even bigger risk in the long term. It claims that climate change is a slow, ongoing crisis, which causes gradual deaths due to food shortages, rising temperatures, and ecosystem collapse.

What are the potential existential threats to humanity mentioned at the end of the video?

The video discusses extreme existential threats like rogue artificial intelligence, nanobots, gamma-ray bursts, and space phenomena like rogue black holes or alien invasions. These are all highly unlikely but could result in total extinction if they occurred.