What to Expect at COP 28

Summary

COP 28, happening soon in Dubai, is set against a backdrop of growing global climate challenges. Despite positive reports like the International Energy Agency’s forecast of fossil fuel demand peaking before 2030, global temperature rise is on track to hit 1.4°C this year, potentially reaching 2.4°C by the century’s end. Key discussions include the global stocktake on the Paris Agreement’s progress, fossil fuel phase-out, renewable energy targets, and the operationalization of the loss and damage fund. Geopolitical tensions and issues like food security and energy prices also loom large, influencing climate action efforts.

Takeaways

• 🌍 COP 28 is scheduled to take place in Dubai, addressing global climate change negotiations.
• 📉 The International Energy Agency projects global fossil fuel demand to peak before 2030, but current efforts are insufficient to meet Paris Agreement targets.
• 🌡️ Global temperatures continue to rise, with 2023 expected to be 1.4°C above pre-industrial levels and projections indicating a 2.4°C increase by the end of the century.
• 📝 The global stocktake under the Paris Agreement reviews collective progress every five years, focusing on mitigation, adaptation, loss and damage, finance, technology transfer, and capacity building.
• ⛽ Fossil fuel emissions remain a key driver of climate change, making references to fossil fuel phase-out or phase-down highly scrutinized, especially given the UAE's role as a major producer.
• 💨 Carbon capture and storage technologies are under consideration, along with ambitious goals to triple renewable energy capacity and double energy efficiency improvements by 2030.
• 💰 Operationalizing the fund for loss and damage, agreed at COP 27, remains challenging due to disagreements on governance, including whether the World Bank should host it.
• 📜 Declarations on health and food systems may be adopted at the conference margins, though past declarations have shown limited follow-through.
• ⚔️ Geopolitical tensions, including regional conflicts and the ongoing impact of the Russian aggression in Ukraine, influence climate negotiations and countries’ capacities to take action.
• 🔄 Climate change interacts with other global challenges, affecting food security, energy prices, and overall governmental ability to implement ambitious climate policies.
• 🎯 COP 28 aims to serve as a potential course correction for global climate action, but the outcome will depend on negotiations and geopolitical context.

Q & A

What is COP 28 and where is it taking place?

COP 28 is the 28th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). It is scheduled to take place in Dubai, UAE.

What recent report from the International Energy Agency provides some good news regarding fossil fuel demand?

The International Energy Agency (IEA) recently released a report projecting that global demand for fossil fuels, including coal, oil, and natural gas, will peak before 2030.

Are we on track to meet the objectives of the Paris Agreement?

No, current projections suggest that we are not on track to meet the targets of the Paris Agreement, which aims to limit global temperature rise.

How much higher is the global average temperature in 2023 compared to pre-industrial levels?

In 2023, the global average temperature is expected to be 1.4°C higher than pre-industrial levels.

What is the projected temperature rise by the end of the century?

Current projections indicate that we are on track to reach 2.4°C of warming by the end of the century.

What is the global stocktake and why is it important at COP 28?

The global stocktake is a key mechanism under the Paris Agreement that takes place every five years. It reviews collective progress on climate action, including mitigation, adaptation, finance, and technology transfer. At COP 28, governments are expected to agree on the outcome of this review.

What are the key areas of focus in the climate negotiations at COP 28?

The key areas of focus at COP 28 include fossil fuel phase-out, carbon capture and storage, tripling renewable energy capacity, doubling energy efficiency, and operationalizing the loss and damage fund.

What challenges are there regarding the fossil fuel phase-out at COP 28?

A major challenge is the UAE's role as a significant fossil fuel producer, which raises questions about how aggressively to address fossil fuel phase-out or phase-down during the negotiations.

What is the status of the loss and damage fund, and what is the disagreement about it?

The loss and damage fund was agreed upon at COP 27, but its operationalization is still unresolved. A key point of disagreement is which institution should host the fund, with some suggesting the World Bank.

What other issues may be discussed at COP 28 besides the main negotiations?

At COP 28, there will likely be two declarations on the margins of the conference: one focusing on health and another addressing food systems. However, past declarations on the margins have not always led to significant follow-through.

How do geopolitical tensions, such as the conflict in Ukraine, affect climate negotiations?

Geopolitical tensions, including the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, influence climate negotiations by affecting energy prices, food security, and limiting governments' ability to take bold climate actions.

What is the expected outcome of COP 28 in terms of climate action?

COP 28 will aim to provide a course correction toward more ambitious climate action, addressing key challenges such as fossil fuel emissions, loss and damage, and energy transition goals.