Atul Suri Analyzes Markets Over 15 Years, Key Sectors & Themes To See Ahead For Short & Long Term

Summary

In this insightful discussion, Atul Suri reflects on the 15-year journey of the Indian Equity markets with ET Now, highlighting the significant shift in investor mindset towards long-term horizons. He emphasizes the importance of demographic trends, GDP growth, and political stability in driving India's potential renaissance moment. Suri also shares his views on various sectors, including capital goods, infrastructure, defense, and real estate, while cautioning against consensus-driven investments in private banks. He concludes by noting the global nature of the current equity bull market and the importance of aligning with ongoing trends.

Takeaways

• 🎉 It's been 15 years since the inception of ET Now, marking a significant milestone in financial news broadcasting.
• 📈 The speaker highlights a shift in investor mindset from short-term to long-term horizons, especially in the context of India's equity markets.
• 🧐 There's been a significant increase in market resilience, as seen in the quick recovery from the election day dip, indicating a maturing market.
• 📊 Over the last 15 years, the market has tripled, suggesting a strong long-term growth trajectory despite short-term fluctuations.
• 🌐 The concept of 'Amrit Khal' is introduced, referring to a renaissance moment in a country's history driven by demographics, GDP growth, and political stability.
• 🇮🇳 India is believed to be in its renaissance phase, with the potential for significant wealth creation over the next 10 to 15 years.
• 🏦 The speaker expresses a preference for NBFCs (Non-Banking Financial Companies) over private sector banks, citing better opportunities in certain pockets of the NBFC space.
• 🛠️ Sectors like capital goods, engineering, infrastructure, and defense are expected to continue leading the market, driven by the KEX cycle.
• 🚗 The auto sector, including ancillaries with exposure to global setups, is seen as an exciting area with potential for secular growth.
• 🍻 Despite the breakout in liquor and alcohol stocks, the speaker prefers to focus on food-related FMCG stocks, which are showing strong performance.
• 🌾 The agriculture space is gaining attention, with potential opportunities in fertilizers and farm equipment stocks, especially with the new government focus.

Q & A

What is the significance of the 15-year milestone for ET Now and the India Equity markets?

The 15-year milestone for ET Now marks a significant period of coverage and analysis of the India Equity markets. For the markets, 15 years is a relatively short time, but it has seen a tremendous shift in investor mindset towards long-term investments and market resilience, as evidenced by the quick recovery from the 7% Nifty fall post-elections.

What is the 'Amrit Khal' and how does it relate to the long-term trajectory of the India Equity markets?

The 'Amrit Khal' refers to a golden period in a country's history when favorable demographics, GDP growth, and political continuity align, leading to a renaissance moment similar to what Japan and the US experienced in the past. The speaker suggests that India may be entering such a phase, which bodes well for the long-term trajectory of its equity markets.

How has the market's response to the election results impacted investor sentiment?

Despite the election results not being what the market was ready for, the market's quick recovery and adjustment to the 7% Nifty fall indicate a strong investor sentiment and confidence in the market's resilience, suggesting that the focus is shifting towards long-term investment horizons.

What sectors and themes have shown resilience and potential for leadership in the current market scenario?

Sectors such as capital goods, engineering, infrastructure, defense, and real estate have shown resilience and potential for leadership. These sectors, which were previously unglamorous and underperforming, are now expected to continue their outperformance due to the KEX cycle.

What is the speaker's view on private sector banks and the NBFC sector?

The speaker is not bullish on private sector banks due to their consensus bullishness and underperformance despite positive macroeconomic indicators. In contrast, he prefers certain pockets within the NBFC sector, particularly those involved in mid-corporate business lending, which he believes will perform well.

What are the speaker's thoughts on the real estate sector and which players does he favor?

The speaker is bullish on the real estate sector but strongly favors cleaner, pan-India players with a history of transparency and good balance sheets. He advises avoiding companies with a lot of gray areas in their operations to ensure long-term wealth for investors.

How does the speaker view the auto sector, especially in the context of global trends and opportunities?

The speaker finds the auto sector exciting, particularly due to the global shift towards green energy and alternative fuels. He is interested in auto ancillaries that cater to global setups and have a focus on electric vehicles, expecting them to lead in the next upmove.

What is the current state of the metals sector, and what are the speaker's preferences within it?

The metals sector had a strong 2022 but faced challenges in 2023 due to China's growth slowdown. The speaker prefers copper due to its status as a leading economic indicator and is a fan of 'Dr. Copper.' However, he is currently not in the metals sector, focusing instead on trend-following.

What are the speaker's views on the food and FMCG sectors within the consumption space?

The speaker finds food-related FMCG stocks to be very interesting, with a focus on discretionary spend. He mentions rice stocks and Mrs. Bector's Food as examples of companies in his portfolio, suggesting that these areas are outperforming traditional soap and shampoo FMCG products.

How does the speaker perceive the current state of the market in terms of overbought indicators?

The speaker acknowledges that the market is currently overbought but advises against using this as a reason to sell or short-sell. In a bull market, overbought conditions can persist for extended periods, and the speaker emphasizes the importance of following the trend until it breaks down.

What is the speaker's perspective on the global equity bull market and its implications for Indian markets?

The speaker sees a global equity bull market in play, with most markets at lifetime highs, not just in India. This suggests that Indian markets are part of a larger trend, and any corrections are likely to be bought into, indicating a strong and sustained bull market.

Outlines

00:00

📈 Market Longevity and Investor Mindset Shift

In this segment, Atul Suri discusses the 15-year journey of the India Equity markets, emphasizing the shift in investors' perspectives from short-term to long-term horizons. He highlights the resilience of the market, especially during significant events like elections, and points out how corrections that once caused panic are now seen as opportunities. Suri also touches upon the importance of demographic trends, GDP growth, and political stability in creating a country's 'Renaissance Moment,' drawing parallels with historical bull markets in Japan and the U.S. He suggests that India may be experiencing its own renaissance, which could lead to substantial wealth creation over the next 10 to 15 years.

05:03

🏭 Sector Performance and Investment Strategies

The second paragraph delves into sector-specific performances and investment strategies. Suri identifies capital goods, engineering, infrastructure, and defense as key sectors that have shown resilience and potential for continued growth, having been undervalued for a decade. He also discusses the recent performance of bank stocks, expressing a preference for NBFCs over private sector banks due to concerns about overexposure and consensus bullishness. Suri further explores the real estate sector, advocating for cleaner, pan-India players with improving balance sheets and strong volume numbers, as well as the potential in the agro space, particularly in fertilizers and farm equipment, which could benefit from the new government's 100-day agenda.

10:05

🚗 Auto Sector Growth and Emerging Opportunities

In this part, the focus is on the auto sector, which has shown remarkable recovery and growth, especially in the ancillary space with a focus on electric and alternative fuel vehicles. Suri notes the global interest in the auto industry and the potential for Indian companies to capitalize on this trend. He also discusses the metal sector, highlighting the importance of underlying commodity prices and the cyclical nature of the industry. Suri expresses a preference for copper due to its status as a leading economic indicator and notes the performance of steel stocks in the market.

15:06

🍷 Consumer Market Insights and Global Market Trends

The final paragraph provides insights into the consumer market, particularly in the food and FMCG sectors, where Suri sees potential for growth in discretionary spending. He also addresses the breakout in liquor and alcohol stocks and the potential in the agriculture sector with the new government's focus. Suri warns against relying on overbought indicators in a bull market, advocating for trend-following strategies instead. He concludes by contextualizing India's market performance within a broader global equity bull market, noting that while different markets may outperform based on various factors, the overall trend is upwards.

Keywords

💡Equity markets

Equity markets refer to the venues where shares of stock in publicly held companies are bought and sold. In the context of the video, the discussion revolves around the performance and trends of the India Equity markets over the past 15 years, highlighting the growth and changes in investor behavior over time.

💡Investment horizon

The investment horizon is the length of time an investor plans to hold an investment before selling it. The video emphasizes the shift in investor mindset towards longer-term horizons, such as 10 to 15 years, as opposed to short-term gains, reflecting a more strategic and patient approach to investing.

💡Market correction

A market correction is a decline of at least 10% from the recent peak of a stock market index. The script mentions a 5% correction as a cause for concern among investors, illustrating the emotional impact of market fluctuations on investment decisions.

💡Demographic shift

A demographic shift refers to changes in the population's age distribution, which can affect economic growth and investment opportunities. The video discusses how demographic factors, along with GDP growth and political stability, can create a 'Renaissance Moment' for a country's market, as seen in historical examples of Japan and the US.

💡Capital goods

Capital goods are items used in the production of other goods or services, such as machinery and equipment. The script identifies capital goods as one of the sectors expected to outperform in the market, reflecting the belief in a 'kex cycle' where these sectors lead the market's growth.

💡NBFCs (Non-Banking Financial Companies)

NBFCs are companies that provide various financial services aside from banking, such as loans and investments. The video suggests that certain NBFCs are preferred investment choices over private sector banks due to their quality and potential for growth, despite the general market consensus.

💡Bull market

A bull market is a condition in which securities prices are rising or are expected to rise. The script discusses the characteristics of a bull market, including the tendency for stocks to reach new highs and the importance of identifying leading sectors and themes, such as capital goods and infrastructure.

💡Overbought

Overbought is a term used to describe a security that is considered to be trading at a higher price than its estimated true value. The video explains that in a bull market, overbought indicators can be sustained for extended periods, and investors should not rely on them as a signal to sell or short.

💡Trend following

Trend following is an investment strategy where investors buy into a security as it rises in price and sell it as it falls. The speaker in the video identifies as a trend follower, emphasizing the importance of aligning with market trends and avoiding sectors that are not showing strong upward momentum.

💡Global Equity bull market

A global equity bull market indicates a widespread increase in stock prices across multiple countries. The script points out that the current market trends are not isolated to India but are part of a larger pattern of rising equity markets worldwide, including the US, Europe, and Japan.

💡Sector performance

Sector performance refers to the overall change in value of a group of securities within a specific industry or sector. The video discusses the varying performance of different sectors, such as autos, metals, and chemicals, and the importance of identifying and investing in sectors that are currently leading the market's growth.

Highlights

15 years of ET Now celebrated with a discussion on the evolution of India's equity markets.

India's equity markets have tripled in the last 15 years, indicating a significant long-term growth trajectory.

Investors' shift from short-term to long-term investment horizons has been remarkable over the past decade.

Market resilience was evident during the election period, with quick recoveries from significant falls.

Long-term macro indicators and demographic factors are driving India's potential for a 'Renaissance Moment' similar to other countries.

Sectors such as capital goods, engineering, infrastructure, and defense are expected to lead the market in the coming years.

Banking sector performance has been underwhelming, with a preference for NBFCs over private sector banks.

The real estate sector, once shunned, is now showing signs of robust recovery and investment potential.

Auto sector has shown resilience and potential, especially with a focus on electric and alternative energy vehicles.

Metals and chemicals sectors are experiencing a resurgence, with underlying commodity prices driving their performance.

Liquor and alcohol stocks have seen a significant breakout, indicating a strong trend in the consumer space.

FMCG and food stocks are gaining interest as discretionary spending increases in the consumption space.

Agriculture stocks may gain momentum with new government initiatives and focus on the agri sector.

Overbought market indicators are not a deterrent in a bull market, where trends can sustain for extended periods.

Global equity markets are experiencing a bull market, with most markets reaching lifetime highs.

The discussion emphasizes the importance of trend-following and aligning investments with current market cycles.

Transcripts

Atul Suri himself right here with a and

me to actually talk about markets and 15

years of ET now um Atul thank you so

much for taking the time out and joining

us on our birthday congratulations to

all of you and all the viewers uh um

actually like it's been 15 years wow

seems like a long time seems like a long

time we've been around for very long

time yes we have but uh you know it

seems like 15 years when you talk about

India Equity markets is such a short

time right I mean we're now talking 10

years hands 15 year hands what's the

ticker telling you I mean what I H

whatever happened on third fourth June

seems like history long gone yeah I mean

this is exactly the point you know that

having spent so many years in the

markets investors were all about what's

happening in a week a month you know and

people would just get hassled with a 5%

correction and I travel a lot I meet lot

of investors and it's fascinating the

Mind shift is tremendous what you said

10 years 15 years people actually never

spoke even if spoke they never invested

but genuinely I find people who are you

know investing with that kind of time

Horizon even I mean what you saw the 2

weeks ago you know on the election day

it was unbelievable at one stage it fell

the market also go go into circuit but

it got bought into and 3 Days Later

nobody's even talking by retail and by

the way that was the biggest fall in

almost four years absolutely but you

know you look at the longer term charts

as well uh I mean our data suggest that

in the these last 15 years the market

has more than trebled right uh now that

we sit here and look at the macro

indicators all of that put together

that's what you practice at your fund as

well how do the long-term trajectory

really look like from here on so what we

did was you know we studied like of

course now there's a term called Amrit

Khal okay I mean for for want of better

word but there is a time in every

country's history when demographics your

GDP growth political continuity all work

together and every country has this

Renaissance Moment Like if you go into

Japan you will see that from 1950s after

the world war it all the way to say 1990

you had a phenomenal bull market and all

these things worked out us between say

1980 and 2000 the dow move from 1,000 to

10,000 it also happened in China so

every country has these you know 10 20

year phases which I think the starting

point is demographics so that is

something that is Unstoppable yes you

know in the shortterm IM say Okay Modi

3.0 Etc the next 100 days but beyond all

that Aisha you know I've seen that every

country has this moment of Renaissance

and hopefully fingers crossed India is

showing those qualities and traits and

that's why as I said that the 10 year

15E time Horizon is a fantastic time set

and a lot of wealth is going to be

created I feel and you can see signs of

this you know when markets fall The

Falls are shallow and they get

immediately bought into as I said that

we've just moved away from the event for

6 months we were obsessing with

elections and the results came were not

what the market was ready

exactly in spite of that it showed it

showed in that 7% Nifty fall it adjusted

itself and the interesting part is that

post those two three days those same

sectors themes continued for example

defense we were just talking about

defense I mean it's very closely linked

to India and the current government but

you'll clearly see after two or 3 days

of wobble they're all making new highs

whether it's infra capital goods

engineering so I think that it is

continuity that is important and as I

said this a very big mind shift and

rightly so I feel that the retail or hni

investors hopefully uh have been doing

well and would continue to do well for

years to come but Atul that's for

someone who's perhaps you know into the

Sip culture long-term money pouring in

but for those who are playing the trend

and you know Trend Watchers like you the

horses will remain the same but the cour

has got to change or do you think for

the next foreseeable uh time say next 1

to two years you got to just buy more of

the same and sit tight in it no that's a

very relevant question you know because

one is obviously what the index does ex

actually if you look at the index in the

last you know in in Jan the index was

around 22,000 Nifty today we at 23500

it's not that you know this thousand

Point moves you a one week thousand we

nowhere near that 6 months have passed

so at an index level not much has

happened but lot of sectors and lot of

themes have played out so rightly so

that you will have an index move for

sure but there are some sectors and

themes will really outperform what I'm

seeing in the short term and I said

after an event that happened to we

shortterm because shortterm means very

different for very different I I I would

say about 6 months to a year kind of

situation I think from that point of

view the interesting part is that those

sectors themes which I still continue to

favor that I think this is all about a

kex cycle it's capital goods engineering

infra defense you know those kind of

things which were unglamorous didn't

move for a decade before that will

continue with the leadership and yes the

reality of our markets is that in the

long run Trends will keep changing

sectors change businesses change for

anyone who runs the industry it's not so

simple for us it's very simple to put an

Excel spreadsheet and just pull it on

the right you know but businesses will

change Cycles will change and as an

investor we will have to keep aligning

to it but what I think what I what I

feel is that this is going to be a kex

cycle and stocks link to this kex cycle

are going to be the leaders they're

already performing and I think they will

continue to do so at you know uh what is

very interesting in the last few weeks

is that bank Nifty is kind of reversing

its under performance so say last one

year well of course 40% of it is just

HDFC bank that also come back closer to,

1600 mark But life beyond 50,000 how do

you see Banks uh which pocket of the

bank uh you know as seor you like for I

may sound contrarian but I am not very

bullish on Banks and private sector

Banks first one to say that I'm not even

bullish on it in fact they are the two

most is almost a consensus no part of

lending at all see I prefer the nbfcs I

think there are pockets in the nbfc

space which I'm bullish on and that's

what's there in our portfolio we are

actually a fund that is massively

underwe private sector Banks but you

playing The Lending game via NBF

particularly the or the midar business

lenders maybe they partip there are some

very high quality lenders also there are

some very high quality lenders and I

think we are participating do that one

of the problems with banking I feel and

especially private sector Banks is its

consensus bullishness and in everyone's

portfolio it is a top holding and

whenever there is such I mean everyone

knows right everyone knows about the

cycle Etc I've been hearing it for the

last year but the stocks are not moving

the trends are not there there's a

consensus by an HDFC Bank of course it's

a great Bank it will do well it will

move someday but as an investor if you

have such a big allocation so I feel

that this bull market is about as I said

it's about those sectors and themes that

didn't do well for a decade look at real

estate okay one sector again a paria

nobody wanted to touch real estate

stocks but see how well they are doing

so I think that this is going to be a

bull market where most people are going

to be in position in private sector

Banks and large cap it but the bull

market is actually happening somewhere

else and that's the nature of the market

the market is never about consensus it's

always about the pendulum swinging the

other side that's why the Big M so let's

crat that point real estate a little

more there are you know dlfs OBO and you

know prestiges of the world the pan

India kind of macrotech for that matter

and then there is a regional kind of

daas emerging they've done pretty well

improving the balance sheets good volume

numbers do you have a mix of both are

you going for P I prefer the pan India

players also you know for me one big

area of interest in real estate is who's

honestly a little clean relatively I'm

saying I'm not using it in absolute

sense but I feel like that is an

industry that's still has a little bit

of MK um you know for anyone who

actually goes out there and buys real

estate especially outside Bombay you'll

realize that it still has its Gray

Shades of Gray and you know you really

want to avoid that because when there's

lot of gray it never translates to

long-term wealth for investors so in the

real estate space again a sector I'm

very bullish on but I strongly strongly

favor the cleaner players because that's

where the benefits will flow to the

shareholders and not get lost somewhere

Fair Point okay hold on to that thought

lots more sectors to talk about we also

have to take a commercial break we're

sitting pretty much around the day highs

considering we had a little bit of a

very quiet start and we're sticking by

with that 23555 level on the Nifty

Futures take a break be right back with

more Atul since we talking about lenders

once again let's go into uh the nbfc

side of the pocket a little more in

detail there is a there a pocket there

Chola sham say punaa also to a large

extent the big ones the numbers are no

less there growth is good 30% now

there's another emerging space the small

Finance Banks the msme kind of lenders

so they are clearly growing faster than

other lenders and the NPA thing is still

under check which end of the nbfc basket

you find more comfort so I prefer the

quality lenders because what I feel is

that when you are expanding your balance

sheet lending is a very easy job it's

the collection part The Collection part

if you are lending you will have a

million people stand outside it's never

a problem lending the problem comes in

collection so that's where I prefer

conservative lenders because right now

the way the cycle is or the way we are

there's a lot of credit of it that can

happen but the thing is that when the

cycle changes or when the cycle kind of

Peaks out then the question is how many

of them have the recoveries so I for one

tend to be a little conservative in this

area so I definitely prefer the quality

lenders especially companies families or

groups that have been around for a few

Generations in fact which are seasoned

book absolutely mhm let's talk about

Autos a because over there you've got an

Eminem and maruti on one hand tataa

Motors I mean yes Eminem now is the

largest market cap it's overtaken Tara

Motors as well and then you've got the

two- wheeler space which was completely

not even looked at till the last one

year and now all those stocks are

sitting at an all-time high what's

happening no I mean Auto has been very

exciting in fact when the wobble

happened last week after elections the

first sector index to make a lifetime

high was Autos so that is something that

actually got bought into massively and

for me that's a very big takeaway

because in Weak markets what stocks and

sectors do well give you a sense that

they tend to be leaders in the next up

move and that's where I feel that you

mentioned a few stocks I feel even Auto

anies are very interesting because this

whole green energy alternative fuel

alternative energies whatever there's a

lot happening in the Auto industry

globally but I feel even in the Indian

context especially some of these

ancillaries they're not just

manufacturing for India they're

manufacturing for a lot of these Global

setups so I feel that there's a lot of

interest and I've always found that in

any bull market you know you'll always

find Autos tend to be beautiful secular

moves and we are also seeing that kind

of secular run there is so definitely

favor some of the auto stocks but I feel

that the more exciting stuff is

happening in the anary space and even in

the anary space look at those which have

a little electric angle of focus to it I

think that's

where there's a lot more you know the

Arbitrage momentum on the upside can be

a lot more you know you know the VAR the

UR the bigger pack bigger pack right

Sona is a Big E player as well right I

want to talk to you about Metals as well

in the last 6 months you know from

complete denial people have start

latching onto Metals what are your

thoughts on metal and there are some

special situation also Brewing there

hindalco had a you know subsidary going

T Ste this quarter came back and said

second half things will turn around

Europe which end of the metal pack do

you like so if you really look at metals

or how I look at Metals is the

underlying Commodities sure and if you

look at Global prices like you know

Copper's corrected the last few days

coer and yeah you find a lot of these

underlying Metals pure commodity plays

because you know Metals we know apart

from the efficiencies Etc it's

ultimately the commodity prices and

these tend to be cyclical so what is

happening is that of course they had a

very brilliant 2022 I think 23 was a bad

year A lot of these stocks actually

haved China growth also kind of

absolutely and now you find that they're

all coming back and as I said that I

like to see the underlying commodity

price moves because once that plays out

then it all trickles down to this and

that trickles down to profit you like

copper pricing Rising aluminum or steel

yeah I guess I guess I like

copper I'm a big fan of Dr copper Dr

copper is also leading indicator for the

econom absolutely but but on the markets

you know a lot of the steel stocks are

doing better in the on the on the listed

Equity space the steel stocks are doing

much better of course but uh much like

what metals was about a year and a half

two years back is chemicals right now is

that some SE a sector where you see

opportunity in uh that's again something

where I have a difference of opinion

sure uh was one of my favorite sectors

two two and a half AG years ago probably

my largest sectorial thematic holding a

lot of people feel that uh well a lot

has gone and now is the time to pick but

you know Aisha my style is I'm a trend

follower so I tend to look at Trends yes

it may be great for bottom fishing but

that's not my style so that's why I'm

away and far from Metals yes when a uh

sorry uh speciality chemicals as in when

a trend plays out I would be in it at

the moment I'm not in it but I know that

there's a very very strong um opinion

that yes this is good accumulation

levels but I generally am not never an

accumulator I'm a breakout player I'm a

trend follower so for me the trend is my

friend at the moment I don't see much of

a trend there mhm what are your thoughts

on liquor and alcohol stocks because

there's a big breakout which is

happening there yeah I mean I don't have

it any any of them because that's the

only part of the consumer space which is

doing well otherwise consum lot lot of

food stocks are doing very well so if

you look at the consumption space you'll

find that lot of the food related fmcg

plays etc for example rice stocks or

like a Mrs vecta I vun bever

is I I have in my portfolio please

bested in case but you know you'll find

a lot of such plays that are happening

out uh in these stocks so I feel that

fmcg as a play B the traditional

so soap shampoo kind of stuff is kind of

okay good days bad days it's not really

making money it's not leading but I feel

that there lot of food stocks that are

very very interesting and I think that

that's where the whole discretionary

spend uh will play out I kind of hold a

lot of stuff in that space you know I

observed Aisha today this morning

porinju is telling us that agriculture

stock is something on your because this

sh shivat Singh chaan becoming the

agriculture Minister he even gave out a

very kind of a very interesting

message to that I'm leaving this

position and now going to the center all

of that but Yer last week even Madu came

on the channel and talk about agre

stocks now the agre space is such a

small space there hardly any stocks

unless you play the bigger ones like gri

Agro anything anything brewing on the

fertilizers were looking very very

interesting and some of the farm

equipment players were looking very very

interesting so I think I would like look

at those kind of places so I thought I

thought there was some interesting moves

happened there and more so as I said you

know everyone's been talking about the

100 day agenda and definitely there

seems to be a lot that this government

will need to do some new triggers

defenses played out power has played out

maybe Shan coming in you know so there

is a feeling that there's a lot going to

happen and I think that these are SE

these are themes that could play out in

the agre space do you sense any

overbought indicators anywhere across

the board yeah the mar the market is

overbought at the moment but that

doesn't mean that you need to sell or

short s see what happens in Bull markets

markets can remain over over bought in

fact the sweetest uh Returns come when

markets remain overbought so we can

extend yeah yeah so in a bull market the

overbought indicators can sustain for

weeks months and we lot of people feel

that oh it's overbought so you need to

sell out or maybe in some try to short

sell but when a ferocious bull market is

at play then overbought and oversold

don't work overbought oversold work in a

sideways Market because that plays out

within a range today when you are at

lifetime highs right there can be no no

greater indication of a trend than at

lifetime Highs at lifetime highs I I for

one have learned never to use overbought

oversold because these are Runway it's

like a freight train right you don't

want to stand in front of a freight

train and the moment a market is at a

lifetime high it's like a freight train

that's coming out so me you know let's

not like try to get yeah markets will

correct they do but the fact is that

first you know don't stand in front of

let the chart right it right up with it

and see I said the trend is your friend

till the end when it bends has the trend

broken down on Reliance industry it's

the biggest weight on the index just not

going Beyond 2950 no that's exactly what

I'm saying that see the last uh 6 months

what is the index move nothing because

all the three four five it's ences TCS

Reliance HDFC bank they haven't done

much the rest of the market you look at

the small cap index midcap index you

look the sectorial indexes like the auto

index even Nifty components other than

these four five so you'll find that the

rest of the market there is a lot lot

happening it is much much more than what

the headline Nifty is showing you so

like like the small cap midcap index you

know you just see the charts that are

there they are just ferocious the kind

of move that they've had from Jan to Now

versus the Nifty so these four or five

stocks are putting lot of weightage on

the index but the rest of the market is

is

a since you do track the global markets

as well it's not like we're the only

performer right so is US equities few

odd Spurs coming in from far east as

well it's a rising tie and it's taking

all the boats up but you have a very big

event that's the US elections as well in

the second half which is going to play

out what are those charts telling I

think what you've raised is a very

relevant point because you know that's

what I've been telling investors that

now come on like let's Mo no let's move

on because we've been only focusing on

India Indian elections for the last 6

months we need to move on in fact the

biggest Trend playing out in the world

is actually of complete Global Equity

bull market it's not happening in just

in IND it's happening in the biggest

world of the market us look at NASDAQ

60% of global market cap look at Europe

people thought Europe is dead gone

dusted Europe markets are at lifetime

highs look at Japan I mean decadal uh

bare markets actually near lifetime

highs barring I think China more or less

you'll find that most markets are a

lifetime High yeah so this is actually a

complete Global Equity bull market

someone may outperform someone will

relatively outperform based on

fundamentals or positionings that there

are but you hit the nail on the head

that the biggest Trend playing out is

not about India it's actually Global in

nature and you will notice that in that

phase even we have an event like we had

two weeks ago where the numbers went

wobbled it just got bought into so

whatever there are no fi it's all

happening without the FI they're waiting

for a

correction okay good for them thank you

very much for stopping by and we all

appreciate your contribution to the

channel congratulations again thank you

bye all right we'll take a short break

on that note come back and take the

analysis forward and stock picking on

the other side of

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