Por que o dólar está caindo? E até onde pode ir?

Summary

In this video, Léo discusses the significant drop in the dollar's value against the Brazilian real, examining key factors such as Brazil's high interest rates and the U.S. economic policies under the Trump administration. He explores how foreign investors are attracted to Brazil's 15% interest rate while U.S. interest rates are decreasing. The video also touches on the global impact of U.S. tariffs and inflation, and Léo offers his perspective on the dollar's future, advising viewers to take advantage of the current exchange rate for investments in dollars before it's too late.

Takeaways

• 😀 The dollar has been falling since the beginning of 2025, dropping from 6.30 to 5.50, a 12% decrease.
• 😀 Many people are uncertain about whether to buy the dollar now or wait for it to drop further to R$4, as the currency fluctuates.
• 😀 Brazil's high interest rate of 15%, the highest in 20 years, is a key factor attracting foreign investors and driving up the value of the real.
• 😀 The U.S. interest rate is at 4.5%, down from 5.5%, and is expected to decrease further, which makes the U.S. less attractive for fixed-income investments.
• 😀 Brazil's high interest rate is a powerful incentive for foreign investment, leading to more dollars flowing into the country and making the dollar cheaper in relation to the real.
• 😀 The new U.S. administration under Trump has implemented tariffs and trade tensions, which has weakened the dollar against other global currencies.
• 😀 The DXY index, showing the strength of the dollar against global currencies, has dropped by 9.8%, reflecting the dollar's overall depreciation.
• 😀 U.S. economic growth projections have been revised downward, with expectations of slower growth due to policies under the Trump administration.
• 😀 Historically, the dollar has appreciated against the real over the long term due to the U.S.'s lower inflation rate and more stable economy.
• 😀 Current trends suggest that the dollar may rise again in the future, making now an attractive time to buy the dollar before the real potentially weakens.
• 😀 The impact of the IOF (tax on foreign exchange transactions) on the cost of buying dollars should not deter investors, as waiting for a lower IOF could result in higher costs if the dollar strengthens again.

Q & A

What caused the significant drop in the dollar's value in relation to the Brazilian real in 2025?

The drop in the dollar's value against the Brazilian real is primarily due to the high interest rates in Brazil, which have attracted more foreign investment. The interest rate in Brazil is 15%, the highest in 20 years, making Brazilian fixed income investments very attractive to foreign investors.

How do interest rates in the United States compare to Brazil, and how does this impact the dollar's value?

In 2025, the United States has reduced its interest rates to 4.5% from 5.5% in late 2024, with further reductions expected. This contrasts with Brazil's high interest rate of 15%. As U.S. interest rates fall, foreign investors are looking to diversify their portfolios by investing in countries like Brazil, thus driving down the dollar's value.

What is the relationship between inflation rates and interest rates in both Brazil and the United States?

In Brazil, high inflation rates (5-6%) prompted the central bank to raise interest rates to 15% to control inflation. In contrast, the U.S. has seen lower inflation (around 2-3%) and, as a result, has been lowering its interest rates, which makes U.S. fixed-income investments less attractive.

What role has U.S. President Donald Trump's policies played in the dollar's depreciation?

Trump's policies, particularly the imposition of tariffs on other countries, have led to economic uncertainty, increasing inflationary pressures in the U.S. and weakening the dollar. The tariffs, especially those affecting China, have disrupted global trade, leading to increased costs and reduced economic growth in the U.S.

How has the DXY index reflected the performance of the dollar in 2025?

The DXY index, which measures the dollar against a basket of major currencies, has fallen by 9.8% in 2025. This indicates that the dollar has been weakening not only against the Brazilian real but also against several other strong currencies due to the economic and political developments in the U.S.

What is the short-term economic forecast for the United States in 2025, and how does it affect the dollar?

The U.S. economy is expected to grow slower than initially anticipated, with GDP growth projections lowered from 1.7% to 1.4%. This weaker economic growth, coupled with rising inflation, is expected to keep U.S. interest rates higher for longer, further weakening the dollar.

What advice does Léo give regarding purchasing dollars during this period?

Léo advises that now is a good time to buy dollars because the exchange rate is favorable (around R$5.50), and the high interest rates in Brazil make fixed-income investments attractive. He suggests that waiting for the dollar to drop further could be risky, as it may rise again due to global economic shifts.

Why does Léo think the Brazilian economy might face challenges despite the current favorable exchange rate?

Léo believes that the current appreciation of the real is mainly due to short-term factors, such as high interest rates in Brazil and economic weakness in the U.S. However, he predicts that these conditions may not last, and the Brazilian economy could face setbacks, which would likely lead to a stronger dollar in the future.

What is Léo's stance on the possibility of the IOF (tax on financial transactions) returning to previous levels?

Léo does not believe that the IOF will return to its previous lower levels anytime soon. He advises against waiting for the IOF to decrease, as the potential benefits of a lower tax would likely be overshadowed if the dollar increases in value.

What scenario does Léo present to demonstrate why buying dollars now makes sense, even with the higher IOF?

Léo illustrates that even with the current higher IOF (1.10%), buying dollars now is a better option than waiting for the IOF to drop. He explains that if the dollar increases in value while you wait, the overall cost of purchasing dollars will end up being higher, even if the IOF decreases.