"These Are The Exact Dates When Crypto Goes PARABOLIC " - Raoul Pal (UPDATE)

Summary

Raoul Pal, a macroeconomic expert, discusses the cyclical nature of crypto markets, emphasizing the upcoming periods of 'macro summer' and 'macro fall' as prime times for growth due to increasing global liquidity. He advises focusing on high-potential assets like Solana, predicting significant gains following the Bitcoin halving events. Pal highlights the importance of long-term holding despite market corrections, referencing historical returns of major cryptocurrencies. He also touches on broader economic trends, emphasizing the interconnectedness of all asset classes and the unparalleled investment opportunities in the crypto space.

Takeaways

• 📉 After the crypto 'harvest', there is typically a consolidation period where prices may fall by about 20%.
• 🌐 The increase in global liquidity, not just U.S. liquidity, is a key driver for crypto markets, especially during the summer months.
• 📈 Historically, the best periods for liquidity and crypto growth have been in the summer and fall, with 2020 being an outlier due to the pandemic.
• 🚀 The speaker is heavily invested in Solana (SOL), outside of small 'meme' investments, due to compelling cross-chart analysis with Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH).
• 💡 The speaker advises simplicity in investment strategy, focusing on the asset with the highest potential return, which currently, for him, is Solana.
• 🔄 The post-Bitcoin harvest period does not lead to an instant supply shock but rather a choppy consolidation followed by a significant upward move.
• 📊 The speaker presents a chart from Exponential Age Asset Management, illustrating the potential for the crypto market cap to grow from $2.5 trillion to 100 trillion by 2032-2034.
• 📈 Crypto assets like Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana have historically provided astronomical returns, even amidst significant corrections.
• 🍌 The 'banana zone' refers to a period of extreme market growth, where everything 'goes bananas', typically following a post-harvest consolidation.
• 🌍 The speaker emphasizes that in a correlated market, diversification is less effective, and it's better to focus on the best-performing assets, such as crypto and tech stocks.
• 🔮 The speaker predicts a significant wealth accumulation opportunity in the coming years, urging investors to not miss out on this 'gift' of crypto.

Q & A

What is the typical pattern after a crypto 'harvesting' according to the transcript?

After a crypto 'harvesting,' there is usually a consolidation period where prices may fall by around 20%. This is followed by a period of gathering momentum before the market experiences a significant increase, particularly in the summer months.

What role does global liquidity play in the crypto market cycles mentioned in the script?

Global liquidity is a key factor in crypto market cycles. It tends to increase during the summer months, driving up the market. The script mentions that 2020 was an exceptional year due to the pandemic, but other years like 2016 and 2012 also saw good periods for liquidity and crypto growth.

What are the best two periods of the cycle for crypto according to Raul Paul's insights?

The best two periods of the cycle for crypto are macro summer and macro fall, both of which are expected to have parabolic upward moves, providing significant opportunities for growth.

What does Raul Paul suggest is the best entry point for crypto investments?

Raul Paul suggests that the best entry point for crypto investments is at the bottom of the winter cycle, which is when he was buying Salina, Ethereum, and other crypto assets.

What is the current stance of Raul Paul on crypto assets, particularly Salina?

Raul Paul is currently mostly invested in Salina, outside of small meme investments and other bits and pieces. He finds the Salina-Bitcoin and Salina-Ethereum cross-charts compelling and believes Salina will perform the best in the upcoming crypto cycles.

What does the transcript suggest about the post-election period in terms of market performance?

The transcript suggests that the post-election period, particularly the later part of the season, is when the market, including tech and crypto, tends to experience significant growth, often referred to as 'going bananas.'

What is the 'banana zone' mentioned in the script, and what does it signify?

The 'banana zone' is a term used to describe a period in the market cycle when prices are expected to skyrocket dramatically. It is called the 'banana zone' because the chart resembles a banana shape, and it signifies a time of significant market activity and growth.

What is the historical performance of NASDAQ, Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Salina according to the script?

According to the script, NASDAQ has had a historical performance of 769% since 2011, Bitcoin has done 201% at 139% annualized, Ethereum has achieved 324% at 146% annualized, and Salina, with a shorter history, has seen 8,300% at 240% annualized.

What is the importance of understanding the macro seasons in the context of the script?

Understanding the macro seasons is crucial as it provides invaluable guidance for investors to anticipate and prepare for periods of significant market growth or downturns, helping them to make informed decisions and maximize their investments.

What is Raul Paul's view on diversification in the context of a correlated market?

Raul Paul believes that in a correlated market, diversification is effectively dead. He suggests that if everything is correlated, then the best strategy is to focus on the asset that has the highest potential for growth, which he identifies as crypto, specifically Bitcoin in the context of the NASDAQ.

What is the main takeaway from Raul Paul's insights on crypto cycles as mentioned in the script?

The main takeaway is to not overcomplicate things. The market is moving into periods where parabolic moves are expected, and the primary job of an investor is to stay focused and not mess up the opportunity presented by these cycles.

Outlines

00:00

💹 Crypto Cycles and Liquidity Trends

This paragraph discusses the typical pattern observed after Bitcoin halving events, including an initial period of consolidation followed by significant upward movements in the summer and fall due to increased global liquidity. It mentions previous years like 2020, 2016, and 2012 as examples of this trend and highlights the importance of timing in maximizing profits in the crypto market. The speaker emphasizes investing in assets with the highest potential returns, specifically mentioning Solana over Bitcoin and Ethereum.

05:01

📈 Stellar Performance of Crypto Assets

The second paragraph presents statistical data on the performance of various crypto assets compared to the NASDAQ since 2011. It highlights the exceptional returns of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana, despite significant corrections. The speaker stresses the importance of holding onto these assets through volatile periods to achieve long-term gains and refers to crypto as an 'alien asset class' with unparalleled investment potential.

10:02

📊 Diversification in Modern Investment Strategies

This paragraph discusses the speaker's viewpoint on diversification, arguing that it is no longer effective in the current market where all assets are correlated. The speaker presents a comparative analysis between the NASDAQ and Bitcoin, illustrating that traditional tech investments underperform compared to crypto. The focus is on the importance of recognizing and capitalizing on the best-performing asset classes, specifically within the tech and crypto sectors.

🌍 Navigating the Transition to a New Financial System

In the final paragraph, the speaker outlines the broader economic and social challenges faced by individuals in the current system. They emphasize the unique opportunity presented by crypto to overcome these challenges and achieve financial success. The speaker calls for a straightforward investment approach, maintaining focus on the anticipated parabolic moves in crypto, and encourages viewers to subscribe for ongoing updates and insights.

Keywords

💡Consolidation Period

A consolidation period refers to a phase in financial markets where there is a temporary pause or a sideways movement in the price of an asset after a significant price movement. In the context of the video, it is mentioned that after a 'harvesting' or a period of gains, there is typically a 20% price drop followed by a consolidation period before the market starts to 'gather' momentum again. This concept is central to understanding the cyclical nature of market movements discussed in the video.

💡Global Liquidity

Global liquidity refers to the overall amount of money available in the global economy to finance trade and investment. In the video, it is highlighted that an increase in global liquidity, not just from the United States, is a key driver of market movements, particularly in the summer months. The script mentions that during the summer, liquidity increases, which can lead to significant market upswings, as observed in 2020 due to the pandemic.

💡Cryptocurrency Cycles

Cryptocurrency cycles refer to the recurring patterns of growth and decline in the value of cryptocurrencies over time. The video discusses how these cycles are influenced by various factors, including global liquidity and macroeconomic trends. The script emphasizes the importance of understanding these cycles to make informed investment decisions, especially when it comes to the best times to enter the market.

💡Macroeconomic Seasons

Macroeconomic seasons, as used in the video, is a metaphorical concept that likens economic trends to the changing seasons of the year, with each season representing a different phase in the economic cycle. The video suggests that we are moving into the 'macro summer' and 'macro fall,' which are expected to bring about significant upward movements in the market, particularly beneficial for investors in cryptocurrencies and technology.

💡Parabolic Move

A parabolic move in financial terms describes a rapid and sharp increase in the price of an asset, resembling the shape of a parabola. The video script mentions that during certain macroeconomic seasons, such as summer and fall, investors can expect parabolic moves upwards in the market, indicating a time of significant growth and potential high returns.

💡Liquidity Injection

Liquidity injection refers to the process by which a central bank or other financial institution adds funds to the economy to increase the money supply and encourage spending and investment. In the video, it is suggested that liquidity injections from various sources, such as central banks or government measures, can significantly impact market movements, particularly in the context of the 'banana zone' where markets are expected to rise sharply.

💡Asset Correlation

Asset correlation is a measure of how closely the prices of two or more assets move in relation to each other. The video script discusses the concept that during certain economic cycles, assets become highly correlated, meaning they tend to move in the same direction. This understanding is crucial for investors trying to diversify their portfolios and make informed decisions about where to allocate their investments.

💡Diversification

Diversification is an investment strategy that involves spreading investments across various financial instruments, industries, and other categories to minimize risk. However, the video challenges the traditional notion of diversification by arguing that in a highly correlated market, diversification might not be as effective as focusing on the best-performing assets, such as cryptocurrencies during certain macroeconomic seasons.

💡Wealth Accumulation

Wealth accumulation refers to the process of increasing one's net worth through investment and savings over time. The video emphasizes the unprecedented opportunity for wealth accumulation in the current era, particularly through investments in cryptocurrencies and technology, which are expected to yield significant returns during the identified macroeconomic seasons.

💡Crypto Haring

While the term 'crypto haring' seems to be a typographical error in the script and might have been intended to say 'crypto harvesting,' it refers to the process of realizing profits from investments in cryptocurrencies. The video discusses how after such a harvesting period, contrary to popular belief, there isn't an immediate supply shock and price increase, but rather a period of consolidation and potential price decline before the market starts to build momentum again.

💡Banana Zone

The 'banana zone' is a term used in the video to describe a period of significant market growth that is expected to occur after a period of consolidation. The term is metaphorical, suggesting that the market will 'go bananas,' or experience a rapid and substantial increase in value. The video script uses this term to illustrate the potential for high returns during this phase of the economic cycle.

Highlights

After the harvest, there is typically a consolidation period where prices may fall by around 20% before starting to gather momentum.

The increase in global liquidity, not just U.S. liquidity, is a key driver during the summer months, impacting crypto markets significantly.

Crypto technology thrives during periods of increased liquidity, as seen in the good liquidity cycles of 2016 and 2012.

The best entry point for investments was identified as the bottom of the winter cycle, which is when the speaker increased their holdings in cryptocurrencies like Solana and Ethereum.

The speaker has shifted their portfolio to be almost entirely in Solana, outside of small meme investments, due to compelling cross-chart analysis with Bitcoin.

Contrary to popular belief, a Bitcoin harvest does not lead to an instant supply shock but rather a choppy consolidation period followed by a significant upward move.

Macroeconomic expert and Real Vision founder, Raoul Pal, predicts the best periods for investment are still to come, moving into macro summer and fall with expected parabolic upward moves.

The NASDAQ and tech sectors perform exceptionally well during the crypto summer, with the potential for even greater performance in the fall.

Raoul Pal emphasizes the importance of not overcomplicating investment strategies and advises to take advantage of the upcoming liquidity cycle.

The speaker discusses the potential for a massive accumulation of wealth in the crypto market by 2032-2034, which could be the largest in human history.

Crypto assets like Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana have shown remarkable returns, even after significant corrections, making them an 'alien asset class'.

The speaker refers to the period after the harvest as the 'banana zone', where markets are expected to go parabolic, driven by increasing liquidity.

Raoul Pal suggests that diversification is dead in the context of a correlated market, where all assets move together, and the focus should be on the best-performing assets.

The importance of understanding macro seasons for investment guidance is highlighted, with the advice to stay focused and not to complicate investment strategies.

The speaker provides a final message on the importance of crypto as a gift in the current economic system, urging investors not to miss the opportunity.

The video concludes with a call to action for viewers to subscribe to the channel for updates on crypto and Bitcoin, and to join a daily crypto newsletter for expert predictions and analysis.

Transcripts

usually after the harving there's this

consolidation period down 20% chopping

around usual stuff and then it starts

Gathering Gathering Gathering and then

it goes crazy in summer what we find is

liquidity increases is global liquidity

not us liquidity Global

liquidity so in summer liquidity starts

increasing obviously 2020 because of the

pandemic it went bananas but 2016 2012

these were good periods for

liquidity and guess what crypto

technology they

roads then you get into fall fall is

often when the real fireworks happen

liquidity keeps pumping and then

eventually tops out into winter that's

when you get the corrections the crypto

down Cycles so we've got the best two

parts of the cycle to come obviously the

best entry was at the bottom of winter

that's when I was buying um salana

ethereum um all back then and then I've

obviously switched around so I'm pretty

much 100% salon right now outside of

small meme stuff and other bits and

pieces because salana the salana Bitcoin

cross chart salana eth cross chart looks

so compelling that I'm like if my job

here is to make as much money as

possible I'm just going to own the thing

that I think is going to go up the most

in every single crypto cycle after the

Bitcoin harving contrary to popular

belief we don't see an instant Supply

shock and prices Skyrocket upwards

instead what we get every single time is

a choppy period of consolidation in

which prices fall roughly 20% s then

crypto slowly starts building building

building before a huge crazy move

upwards that's the latest update out

from macroeconomic expert and real

Vision founder R Paul in R's latest

video update to investors he pointed out

the seasons of global liquidity and

showed that the best two periods are

still to come we are moving into macro

summer and macro fall both in which have

the parabolic move upwards we are

familiar with in crypto R's message

don't over complicate things we know

what's coming and your one job is to not

mess this up make sure to stick around

to the end of the video where R explains

why he believes there's at most 6 years

left for investors to make a

life-changing wealth before technology

makes everything too crazy before we

jump into the video only a small

percentage of my viewers are actually

subscribed if you enjoy Finance content

consider subscribing or liking the video

and turning on post notifications but

without further Ado let's jump in with r

Paul don't this up is the key

Mantra when you've got a liquidity cycle

ahead of you like this please take

advantage of it

the next part of that is the NASDAQ

maybe you're not crypto people but God

Tech does well in crypto summer we had

aish year last year long tech all year

astonishingly Good Year in Tech and it's

only going to get crazy and those who

I'll talk about tech a lot later but I'm

talking about um about where this is all

going um and why you've only got six

years to save yourselves uh before the

world gets a little crazy but in Tech it

is fall that is the big period the later

part of the season is when it goes

really bananas that's after the election

this is the same as the election cycle

the election years are in yellow then

the post elction years um that tends to

happen so liquidity is going to pump

into the system it's going to come from

different measures I'm sure there's

going to be questions about this uh in

the chat on realvision realvision decom

if you've not gone there I'm not going

to talk to you ever again if if you do

come across the realvision decom I'll

say hi and I'll be very grateful um and

it's free and I'm there to ask any

questions okay NASDAQ crypto because

you're all crypto junkies and the reason

you're crypto junkies is it makes more

money than anything else I get it um

that's the point that's the point of

investing is to make as much money as

possible um so yellow tends to be in the

summer tends to be

decent but you get there's been two

cycles where fall was

bananas total

bananas and then you had the last fall

in 2021 which was less so it's because

the liquidity came earlier in 2020 so we

don't know how it's going to play out

but this is how it should play

out

is here's a chart from exponential age

Asset Management which is my fund of

hedge funds so it's an asset management

firm that invests in the world's best

hedge funds to capture this trend of

going from $2 a half billion dollar

where the market cap is now to 10

trillion where 10 to 15 trillion where

it is this side CLE and then to 100

trillion where I think it goes by let's

say 2032 2034 something like that this

is going to be the biggest largest

fastest accumulation of wealth in all

human history and that's why I keep

saying don't this up that's why I

have a long-term time Horizon that's why

don't trade around this just let it do

its job so here's when we talk about

doing its job so we look at the the the

bottom the highest return section and

the lowest return section so out of the

three years crypto spring macra spring

summer and fall crypto is the best

performing asset in the world

bonan in the next year in Fall it's the

worst performing asset okay so that's

what you

get but when you look at the

accumulative returns NASDAQ since 2011

has done

769 that's amazing 177% a

year Well bitcoin's Done 20 i% at 139%

annualized ethereum

324 at 146% annualized and salana which

is a shorter history

8,300 at 23% annualized these are

Bonkers these are Bonkers returns

considering in the middle of those

you've had several down 80% Corrections

which is why even the big Corrections

how terrible they are are they're all

noise if you just hold on you're

generating between 140 and 200% a year I

mean salanas at 240% and it went down

94% in

2022 that's how good this asset is it's

an alien asset class and I know I ble up

a a lot about it and a lot of you still

not yet comfortable with it but I I

can't help you anymore that I'm trying

to help you to see what this is it's a

gift it's the greatest gift

we've ever been given so here's the

final thing this is the banana zone why

it's called the banana zone is because

the chart a looks like a banana and B

everything goes bananas and that comes

after the Haring after this

consolidation it does this will it be

identical well is 300 Grand the price

Target whatever I don't know but it will

go bananas unless something dramatic

changes and I do a enormous amount of

work on this in global macro investor

and you

is this chart up on the screen I'm not

sure it

is okay okay I think I've got a delay um

and so I do an enormous amount of work

there's literally thousands of pages of

research from Julian B and myself on

this so this is not just some flipping

comments we see liquidity Rising going

forwards there's there's sources of

liquidity everywhere from the FED

cutting rate from the treasury draining

the the general account to the FED

cutting QT to

um to potentially um the treasury

offering some liquidity Provisions to

China so they can manage the debt

deflation they starved of dollars

something with Japan who also needs

dollars because this this um you know

their currency has been collapsing there

is a lot of opportunities the Europeans

are going to cut rates the UK are going

to cut rates there's a lot of

opportunity for liquidity the FED May

let's say spin up a special purpose

vehicle to get rid of commercial real

estate from the banks who knows but the

cowbell is coming listen out for it it's

already started so the banana zone is

all cowbell and markets going

parabolic so hopefully that gives you

some understanding of what I think lies

ahead will it be perfect no does it chop

around here for another month or two

could do does it finish if I look at the

previous um Cycles

they two of them uh ended in the third

week of May the

consolidation and then went and the

other one was July 2020 but 2020 was

weird because we had the pandemic in the

middle kind of a scre cycle so I don't

know it's close they all like they're

making perfect wedge patterns all of

that everything else seems good what's

also great about macro spring uh sorry

yeah macro summer and

fall is that you can basically take any

asset it's going to go up so all

Commodities those of you who love

Commodities Copper's done well it'll go

up gold will go up oil eventually will

do um doesn't feel great right now oil

stocks will mining stocks will uh all

cyclical plays Will Tech stock

semiconductors they all do phenomenally

well crypto so you can be the

which is a nice way to be in markets

nobody wants to try and overthink stuff

and pretty much anything you buy will go

up but some things will go up more than

others that's that's how I look at the

world everything's everything's

correlated everything the everything

code cycle of the four-year debt refi

cycle means that everything gets

correlated a few assets lead crypto and

Tech others follow the business cycle

the business cycle bottoming so they all

bottom but they're all correlated

everything's correlated so for me I like

to keep everything really moronically

simple if everything correlated then

there is no such thing as

diversification in fact I made a big

presentation to big family family office

network of you know lots of very famous

US gigantically wealthy families and I

my presentation is diversification is

dead and I just said listen so all you

do if that's the case you just look at

all the charts and we got to hey the

best performing stock market in the

world is the NASDAQ isn't it amazing

technology you all get

technology and they're like yeah okay

we're investing in this we can see the

AI Revolution the robots and everything

else we we get it technology I'm like

yeah divide the NASDAQ chart by the by

Bitcoin and NASDAQ is down

99.93%

I'm like you're in the wrong

asset it's as simple as that it's a

super massive black hole so anyway

enough boring you on uh

crypto let's talk a bit about

actually let's just finish up on

crypto it is really important to me when

I set this whole thing for real

Vision to guide people through this

massive

transition this transition into a new

system where the old system is broken

we're forced to

speculate the system is rigged against

us asset prices keep going up wages

don't go up

everybody's polarized everybody hates

each other you throw in Immigration

global trade you throw in aging

populations you throw in AI robotics

right this is not easy for

anybody and everybody just feels like

it's out of their

control and I get it but you've been

given the gift crypto is the gift and

all you have to do is not this up

so there's Ral Paul's latest insights

into the crypto Cycles the importance of

understanding the macro Seasons provides

invaluable guidance for any investor and

should be undoubtedly studied remember

the key takeaway is not to over

complicate things we are moving into

periods where parabolic moves are

expected and your main job is to stay

focused and not mess it up if you

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