FEU Public Intellectual Lecture Series | Redentor Constantino | Part 1

Summary

The video script discusses the urgency of climate change, emphasizing its anthropogenic causes and the dire consequences of inaction. It highlights the scientific consensus on human influence, the importance of citizen involvement in driving government action, and the irreversible impacts of rising CO2 levels and global temperatures. The 'hockey stick' graph illustrates the unprecedented temperature rise, while melting ice and rising sea levels threaten economies and ecosystems. The script calls for interdisciplinary integration and timely action for the sake of future generations.

Takeaways

• 🌡️ Climate change is real and has been happening for a long time, with temperatures steadily increasing.
• 🔬 The scientific consensus is strong, with at least 97% of the scientific community agreeing that human activities are causing climate change.
• 🌱 The impact of humans on the environment is significant and can be either positive or negative, depending on our actions.
• 🗳️ Citizens play a crucial role in influencing government action on climate change by voicing their concerns and needs.
• ⏳ Time is running out to address climate change effectively, with the urgency to act increasing with each passing day.
• 🌐 Specialization is important, but an interdisciplinary approach is necessary to be better citizens and to address complex issues like climate change.
• 📊 The 'hockey stick' graph illustrates a significant and rapid increase in global temperatures in recent history, correlating with increased CO2 emissions.
• 🌊 Sea levels are rising due to climate change, with glaciers melting and adding to ocean volumes, which is an irreversible process.
• 🏞️ Climate change threatens economies that rely on predictable weather patterns and seasons, potentially leading to economic collapse.
• 🌍 The Earth's optimal climate settings are being disrupted by human-induced greenhouse gas emissions, akin to the extreme conditions on Venus and Mars.
• 🐾 Many species are affected by climate change, with some unable to adapt quickly enough, leading to significant shifts in ecosystems and biodiversity.

Q & A

What is the main premise of the discussion on climate change presented in the script?

The main premise is that climate change is real and happening due to human activities, and it has been a concern for a long time, not just a recent issue.

What does 'anthropogenic influence' refer to in the context of climate change?

It refers to the impact humans have on their surroundings, including the environment, which in the case of climate change, is causing global temperatures to rise.

According to the script, what percentage of the scientific community believes in the reality of human-induced climate change?

At least 97% of the scientific community worldwide acknowledges that climate change is real and caused by human interference with the planet's climate system.

What is the significance of the 'hockey stick' graph in the context of climate change?

The 'hockey stick' graph illustrates a significant increase in global temperatures over time, particularly in recent decades, which corresponds with the rise in human-induced CO2 emissions.

Why is the melting of glaciers and ice shelves a concern according to the script?

The melting of glaciers and ice shelves contributes to rising sea levels, which can lead to the inundation of coastal cities and island nations, as well as disrupt freshwater supplies for millions of people.

What is the 'optimal setting' referred to when discussing Earth's climate?

The 'optimal setting' refers to Earth's climate conditions that are just right to support life, which are currently being disrupted by human-induced climate change.

How does the script describe the difference between climate and weather?

Weather is described as the totality of all atmospheric phenomena, while climate is the average weather over time. Changing the climate disrupts the predictability of weather patterns, which can have severe economic impacts.

What is the 'representative concentration pathways (RCPs)' mentioned in the script?

RCPs are scenarios projected by scientists to estimate potential climate change outcomes based on different levels of greenhouse gas emissions and concentrations.

What does the script suggest about the ability of organisms to adapt to rapid climate change?

The script suggests that many organisms are moving to higher altitudes and latitudes to escape warming temperatures, but some cannot move quickly enough or find suitable habitats, which can lead to species decline or extinction.

Why is the rapid warming of the Arctic particularly concerning according to the script?

Rapid Arctic warming is concerning because it is causing more extreme weather conditions elsewhere, such as intense blizzards and typhoons, and is altering global climate patterns.

What is the script's perspective on the urgency of addressing climate change?

The script emphasizes the urgency of addressing climate change, stating that it's not just about fixing the problem, but doing so in time to prevent irreversible damage and ensure a livable future for coming generations.

Outlines

00:00

🌡️ Climate Change and Human Impact

The first paragraph discusses the undeniable reality of climate change and its anthropogenic origins. It emphasizes that the world's temperatures have been rising for some time, and the scientific consensus supports the idea that human activities are the primary cause. The speaker stresses the urgency of government action, driven by citizen involvement, to mitigate the worsening effects of climate change. The paragraph also touches on the importance of interdisciplinary understanding and the long-term implications of our current actions, which will affect future generations more than our own.

05:00

🌍 Understanding Climate vs. Weather and Global Impact

This paragraph delves into the distinction between climate and weather, explaining how human activities are altering average weather patterns, which in turn can disrupt economies that rely on predictable seasonal changes. The speaker uses the example of the 'hockey stick' graph to illustrate the sharp increase in global temperatures over the past century, correlating with the rise in CO2 emissions. The paragraph also highlights the critical levels of CO2 in the atmosphere, emphasizing the need to reduce these levels to avert catastrophic consequences.

10:03

🧊 Melting Ice and Rising Sea Levels

The third paragraph focuses on the tangible effects of climate change, such as the melting of glaciers and the subsequent impact on freshwater resources for hundreds of millions of people. It discusses the melting of Antarctic ice shelves and the acceleration of sea-level rise, which poses a threat to coastal cities and island nations. The speaker also connects rapid Arctic warming to extreme weather events, such as intense blizzards and typhoons, and underscores the irreversible nature of some climate change impacts.

15:06

🌿 Species Displacement and Future Climate Projections

The final paragraph addresses the challenges faced by species as they attempt to adapt to rapidly changing climates by moving to cooler areas or higher altitudes. It presents scenarios of potential warming outcomes, known as Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), and the drastic implications of a 'business-as-usual' approach, which could lead to a temperature increase of up to 4.8 degrees above pre-industrial levels. The speaker warns of the severe consequences for ecosystems and the importance of taking action to prevent such a scenario.

Keywords

💡Climate Change

Climate change refers to long-term shifts in temperature, precipitation, and other atmospheric conditions on Earth. In the video, it is the central theme, with the script highlighting that the Earth's temperatures have been warming for a long time and that this warming is largely due to human activities. The concept is discussed in the context of a crisis that requires immediate action to prevent further negative impacts on the environment and societies.

💡Anthropogenic Influence

Anthropogenic influence denotes the impact humans have on the environment. The script emphasizes that climate change is largely due to human activities, with at least 97% of the scientific community agreeing on this point. This term is crucial as it underscores the role of human behavior in causing environmental changes and the necessity for human-led solutions.

💡Greenhouse Gases

Greenhouse gases are gases in the Earth's atmosphere that trap heat, contributing to the greenhouse effect and global warming. The script mentions that an increase in greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide, is preventing solar radiation from dissipating, thereby causing temperatures to rise. This concept is key to understanding the mechanism behind climate change.

💡Hockey Stick Graph

The hockey stick graph is a term used to describe a graph showing a sharp increase in global temperatures in recent decades, resembling the shape of a hockey stick. The script references this graph, created by Michael Mann in 1998, to illustrate the significant rise in temperatures that correlates with increased human-induced carbon emissions, emphasizing the urgency of addressing climate change.

💡CO2 Emissions

CO2 emissions refer to the release of carbon dioxide, a major greenhouse gas, into the atmosphere. The script discusses how these emissions have been rising alongside temperature increases, indicating a direct link between human activities and climate change. The mention of CO2 levels reaching 409.43 ppm, above the safe level of 350 ppm, highlights the severity of the situation.

💡Sea Level Rise

Sea level rise is the increase in the volume of water in the world's oceans, resulting in a rise in sea levels. The script explains that this is happening due to the melting of glaciers and the thermal expansion of seawater as it warms. This concept is critical as it poses a threat to coastal cities and island nations, potentially leading to displacement of populations and loss of habitats.

💡Ice Melt

Ice melt refers to the process of ice and glaciers melting due to rising temperatures. The script discusses the unprecedented melting of the Greenland glaciers and Antarctic ice shelves, which contributes to sea level rise and affects freshwater supplies for millions of people. This term is significant as it illustrates the tangible and immediate consequences of climate change.

💡Specialization

Specialization in the context of the script refers to the focus on a particular area of knowledge or activity. The speaker argues that while specialization is important, it should not overshadow the need for interdisciplinary integration and holistic thinking, especially when addressing complex issues like climate change. This concept is used to encourage a broader approach to problem-solving.

💡Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)

Representative Concentration Pathways are scenarios used by scientists to project possible climate change outcomes based on different levels of greenhouse gas emissions. The script mentions several RCPs, including RCP 8.5, which represents a scenario of runaway climate change. These pathways are essential for understanding potential future impacts and for guiding policy and action.

💡Climate Refugees

Climate refugees are people who are displaced due to climate-related events, such as rising sea levels or extreme weather events. The script does not explicitly use this term but discusses the potential for populations to be forced to move due to the loss of freshwater sources or land being submerged. This concept is critical for understanding the social and humanitarian implications of climate change.

💡Emissions

Emissions in the context of the script refer to the release of pollutants or greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. The speaker discusses the need to reduce emissions to mitigate climate change, with examples provided from the Taylor Dome ice core and Mauna Loa observatory readings. This term is central to the discussion on how human activities are contributing to global warming.

Highlights

Climate change is a scientifically proven phenomenon with temperatures warming for a considerable time.

The cause of climate change is anthropogenic, meaning human activities are influencing the Earth's climate system.

97% of the scientific community globally agrees that human interference is causing climate change.

Citizen involvement is crucial for governments to take action against climate change.

Climate change is not just harmful; it's a worsening crisis that requires immediate action.

The urgency of addressing climate change is about ensuring the viability of future societies.

Specialization is important, but an integrated approach across disciplines is necessary for effective climate action.

The impacts of today's emissions will be felt in 20 to 30 years, affecting future generations more than the present.

The sun's radiation is trapped by excessive greenhouse gases, preventing heat from dissipating.

Climate change disrupts average weather patterns, threatening economies that rely on predictable seasons.

The 'hockey stick' graph illustrates a significant rise in global temperatures since the industrial period.

CO2 emissions have been directly correlated with the increase in global temperatures.

The safe level of CO2 in the atmosphere is 350 ppm, far below the current levels.

Melting ice sheets and glaciers contribute to rising sea levels and threaten freshwater resources.

Rising sea levels are irreversible, posing an existential threat to island nations and coastal cities.

Arctic warming is causing more extreme weather conditions, including intense blizzards and typhoons.

Species are moving to adapt to climate change, but many cannot keep pace with the rapid environmental shifts.

Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) outline potential climate futures based on varying levels of greenhouse gas emissions.

If no action is taken, the baseline temperature increase could reach 4.8 degrees above pre-industrial levels.

Transcripts

[Music]

our discussion is

very simple it starts from very five

very basic premises no

number one climate change the world

warming temperatures it's happening it's

been warming for a long while

climate science is not something new

that came up in the last decade

many people have pointed to a problem

that

very early said we're going to have a

crisis soon unless we wake up

and change the way that our economies

are run

the way that we live as societies number

two

why is it warming why is there climate

change it's because of us

it's a scientific world we call it

anthropogenic influence

influence of humans well it's a very

important term

whether you're in education you know or

the arts or sciences

um our impact on our surroundings

on our classmates on our families on our

environment

is always going to be important whether

these impacts will be negative or

positive

you know it's always really up to us are

we sure

that it's really anthropogenically

related

making allowance among yes climate

science is saying yes 97 at least

of the scientific community worldwide

all state that

climate change is real it's because of

human interference with the planet's

climate system

and it's going to get worse until and

unless

governments act very soon governments

don't act on their own

citizens tell governments what they need

to do

if you don't get involved nothing pretty

much happens

yeah is it bad it's really bad

and it's not just bad it's going to get

worse

can we fix it yes but we have very

little time

and that's why there's a big question

mark the question is not whether we can

fix it

it's whether we can fix it in time and

whether we can

do enough to ensure that

in the next few decades over the next

few decades

we will still be strong enough to remake

the societies that we're in

probably one of the more important

points which is strange to say

in a setting that's in an academic

institution is that specialization is

very important

that's what you're all trained to do but

my message also to you is that

it is also not very important in fact

it is important but it is not enough

and if you think too much and dive too

much

into specialization you're going to

disable

your ability to be better citizens

and to be better at whatever you do i'm

just saying specialization is very

important

but it's only as important as you see

the other fields

and as you see the other disciplines and

the way

you deliberately try to integrate other

disciplines into your work

and whatever that governments do they do

and citizens

act on will result not in a better

future for them

but in a future that may be better for

their children

this is because all the impacts that we

see today

that we have felt today are impacts

that are a result of

emissions decades ago it means

solutions that we push for in terms of

energy or infrastructure

transport or forests that are

established

tomorrow it will be felt only

in 20 years or 30 years

it means you are fighting not

necessarily for your future

only it's a future that

is related more to your kids or the ones

that will come after you

why is the climate crisis happening um

there's several ways

of explaining now in the image that you

see in front of you

you know that's one way of looking at it

the sun enters

radiation from the sun no solar

radiation enters

our planetary system but because there's

too much greenhouse gases

no it is unable to go out and dissipate

the more greenhouse gases that are

emitted

the less able that we can dissipate the

radiation that comes in from the sun

you can think of it in another way what

is the difference between climate

and weather yeah weather is the totality

of

all atmospheric phenomena climate is

average weather

what we're doing is we're changing

average weather

and if you consider the fact that entire

economies around the world

depend on average weather

because they depend on seasons we know

when it's dry season or autumn or spring

or winter or rainy season

if we're changing average weather we're

putting at risk

entire economies that rely on

predictability that's why climate change

is dangerous because we are

creating the possibility of

incremental or large-scale collapse

in the way that economies are run around

the world think of it in another way as

well

venus has too much greenhouse cover

that's right it's too hot nothing lives

in venus

mars has too little that's why it's too

cold

earth is optimal is an optimal setting

has enough heat enough of the setting

that allows

life to flourish but where

messing around with the settings that's

what climate change is

in a nutshell and the effects

are not entirely pleasant what are the

problems

this graph it's called the hockey stick

graph

you'll see that from this point to here

it's almost like level but then it goes

straight up

like a hockey stick this

is time

200 000 ad

1200 and current times here

this is the record of temperature

increases over time from different

studies

this hockey stick graph is was made by a

scientist called michael mann

in 1998. the reason why i'm showing this

and the other graphs that will follow is

to demonstrate how real and how serious

the impact of humans are on the earth's

climate

this is in 1998 this

hockey stick has become more acute

because

the end here has just continued to rise

up

so from 200 to 1000

to the year 2000s temperature has just

simply gone up

unfortunately it corresponds also with

the co2 emissions carbon dioxide

emissions

that have been recorded along with other

gases but right now co2 is the most

important for

our discussion this

is a graph that shows the readings from

several i score samples and again it

shows

from co2 measurements over time

from the taylor dome i score lowdom ice

core

and the mauna loa observatory readings

again magnetic industrial period

recordings went up almost alongside

temperature readings again another graph

that shows

similar things but measuring

parts per million of co2 in the

atmosphere

and this is a recording made in 2015

437.37 parts per million

italian period humans

homo sapiens around here

and this is where we are today most

recent april 2

2018 and the recording is very similar

and we're now at 409.43 ppm

scientific um common scientific

understanding

is that the safe level is at 350 ppm

in april 2 the recording was at 409.

the challenge is how to bring this back

to a safe level

and right now the challenge is not to

allow it to

go any higher how dangerous is it

um it's pretty dangerous it's pretty

bad um for many communities it's

catastrophic

this graph shows the total global sea

ice area

measurements no dating from 1978

up to 2016. recent headline that shows

the melting in the greenland glaciers

the extent has been unprecedented

compared to the last four centuries last

400 years

consistent with the graph that i earlier

showed you

lasers are retreating and in areas that

rely

on glaciers or fresh water this is

particularly frightening

hundreds of millions of people in south

asia

rely on the glaciers for their

freshwater needs

as the glaciers retreat

so will their freshwater

provisions dry up and if those

provisions dry up

they will move and find other sources if

they can find any

which means potentially triggering more

conflicts in south asia

which is india pakistan

bangladesh sri lanka you know you name

it

antarctic ice shelves and measurement

nila

this one talks about melting that's

happening below

that's not visible but it's rapidly

melting below

which means that it is also increasing

the warming of seas around it

as water melts and increases temperature

of seas around the glaciers

and it increases as a consequence

sea levels

sea levels are rising because of climate

change

for two reasons one because glaciers

are not ice that float on water but sit

on masses of land

and once they once they melt they add to

the volume of water

that they merge with the second probably

even more important reason at risk

are in the next two decades

millions hundreds of millions of people

who live in coastal

cities such as manila

such as those in miami and other places

in the next two decades what you see is

the coast

will probably be part of the sea

and there are a lot of climate change

impacts that

can be reversed are irreversible

sea level rise sea levels rising

is something that you cannot reverse

because it will take millennia before

they go back to normal

and return to their previous levels

islands will disappear island nation

states like the marshall islands or fiji

are at risk not simply of being flooded

but of being obliterated entirely

because if your island nation goes

underwater

your culture disappears as well

this is also what happens no this is

most recent

in the u.s rapid arctic warming

is creating havoc in other weather

systems

climatic systems elsewhere resulting in

more

extreme winter conditions

more extreme cold freezing

blizzards elsewhere as the arctic worms

rapidly so arctic warming

creating more intense blizzards

warming seas creating more intense

typhoons

yolanda was not

necessarily because of climate change

but the intensity increased because

warm seas serve as fuel

for storms adding to the wind speed

and intensity of the typhoon okay

you have to distinguish between natural

weather

variability and climate change induced

impacts very bad particularly

for humans but terrible for

other species this slide i'd like you to

delve on

because it talks about speed scale and

timeline

and the inability of many organisms

to flee from

the climate crisis there are different

scenarios that scientists have projected

in terms of how much warming we can

allow or we will allow and what the

impacts might be

so they call it representative

concentration pathways rcts there's one

that talks about

rcps that a pathway that is normal to

here to where we are right now another

that

looks at you know a less than great

scenario another

that looks at an even more scenario and

the other is

rcp 8.5 which is a runaway climate

change

last studies that came out showed that

on average studying about 2000 species

organisms were moving at least

one meter uphill to flea warming

temperatures

so market they've also been measured

on average to have moved 17 kilometers

farther away from the equator

where it's warmest

some cannot move as quickly as others

some can but only to the extent that

their habitats will allow them because

they are all

searching for the average

climate that they had been born into

this is a graph that just shows this is

1990 this is 2100.

eto tayo so far this black line

this is the temperature the emissions

level

if we don't do anything if it's business

as usual

if no change no action is taken globally

including on the part of the philippines

because indeed

a baseline and temperature increase

would be

up to 4.8 degrees

above pre-industrial levels

and as i said earlier 2 degrees is

already very dangerous