$8,900 Gold? Why Silver and Miners Could Outperform | Ronald-Peter Stöferle

Summary

In this interview, Ronald Sturfelop, the author of the influential 'In Gold We Trust' report, shares his insights on the current state of the gold market. He discusses the long-term bullish trend for gold, influenced by factors like U.S. politics, inflation, and geopolitical shifts. Sturfelop touches on the impact of Donald Trump's policies, the erosion of trust in financial systems, and the growing demand for gold from emerging markets. He also highlights his price target of $4,800 per ounce by 2030 and advises investors to focus on gold and silver assets. A must-watch for anyone keen on the future of precious metals.

Takeaways

• 😀 Gold's resistance to price declines indicates strong demand and investor interest, particularly from western financial investors.
• 😀 The Trump administration's approach is reshaping global monetary policies, with a focus on weakening the US dollar through tariffs and possible gold-backed bonds.
• 😀 Gold's role as a hedge against inflation is increasingly relevant, especially as the US faces economic challenges and potential recession.
• 😀 The 'Trump shock' could lead to a broader monetary realignment, with gold playing a crucial role as a neutral reserve asset.
• 😀 Gold's low inflation rate (1.5% annual increase in supply) positions it as a stable store of value, in contrast to other commodities like oil and copper.
• 😀 Trust erosion in institutions is contributing to gold's attractiveness, as it offers ownership with no counterparty risk when held physically.
• 😀 Gold demand has shifted significantly from developed markets to emerging economies, where gold holds higher cultural and economic significance.
• 😀 Central banks, especially in emerging markets, have been steadily accumulating gold, reinforcing its role in global monetary systems.
• 😀 Despite its higher price relative to commodities like copper and oil, gold remains undervalued when compared to equities, suggesting potential upside in its value.
• 😀 Ronald predicts gold could reach $4,800 by 2030 based on long-term models, with a more bullish scenario pointing to prices as high as $8,900.
• 😀 The golden decade is expected to see silver, mining stocks, and commodities outperforming gold in the second half, as they catch up to gold's performance.

Q & A

What is the primary focus of Ronald Sturfelop's report 'In Gold We Trust'?

Ronald Sturfelop's report, 'In Gold We Trust', primarily analyzes the global gold market, covering topics such as geopolitics, inflation, financial markets, and investor sentiment. It aims to provide comprehensive insights into the factors driving gold prices and trends.

How has the gold market performed recently, according to Ronald Sturfelop?

According to Sturfelop, the gold market has seen a massive rise, with gold trading at $2,600 at the beginning of the year and $2,300 a year ago. Despite recent corrections, gold remains resilient and shows strong support, with many investors buying the dips, primarily driven by Western financial investors.

What is the significance of the 'Trump shock' in the context of the gold market?

The 'Trump shock' refers to the impact of Donald Trump's policies, including the potential for a weaker US dollar and trade imbalances. Sturfelop believes that these developments could lead to a realignment in global monetary policy, with gold playing a significant role as a neutral monetary reserve asset.

How does the US's economic situation affect the gold market?

The US is facing challenges such as chronic trade deficits and de-industrialization. Sturfelop suggests that Trump's policies, including tariffs and a push for a weaker dollar, could increase inflationary pressures and lead to a higher demand for gold as a safe-haven asset.

What role does gold play in terms of counterparty risk compared to other assets?

Gold, especially in physical form, has no counterparty risk because it is a tangible asset that doesn't rely on any third party for its value. This makes it an attractive option for investors looking to hedge against uncertainties in the financial system, unlike assets tied to other parties or institutions.

What is the stock-to-flow ratio, and why is it important for gold?

The stock-to-flow ratio measures the scarcity of an asset, comparing the existing supply (stock) to the annual production (flow). Gold has a very high stock-to-flow ratio, indicating that its supply inflation is low. This makes it a stable and valuable asset over time, especially in comparison to other commodities like copper or oil.

How has the gold sentiment changed from 2007 to 2025, according to Ronald Sturfelop?

Sturfelop notes that the gold market has evolved significantly since 2007. Initially, there was skepticism about gold's value, with critics arguing it was unproductive. However, the market has shifted, with emerging market demand now driving much of the gold demand, and a growing recognition of gold as a crucial monetary asset.

What is the impact of the downgrade of the US's credit rating on gold?

Sturfelop suggests that the downgrade of the US's credit rating by Moody's could contribute to a loss of confidence in the US dollar. This erosion of trust in the US government and its currency could drive investors towards gold as a stable alternative, further increasing demand for the precious metal.

What price targets has Sturfelop set for gold in the coming years?

Sturfelop has set a long-term price target of $4,800 per ounce for gold by 2030, based on his monetary model. In a more inflationary scenario, he sees the price of gold potentially reaching $8,900 by the end of the decade. He believes we are in a 'golden decade,' with significant upward momentum for gold prices.

How does Sturfelop view the relationship between gold and silver, as well as mining stocks?

Sturfelop sees gold as leading the charge in the current bull market, followed by silver, mining stocks, and commodities. He believes that as gold prices rise, silver and mining stocks will catch up, and that investors should overweight these assets, which are still undervalued relative to gold.