G7: Politically weakened leaders meet for summit in Italy
Summary
TLDRこのスクリプトは、国際的な不安定さと国内の動揺の中でG7サミットの開催を背景に、各国首脳の状況と議論点を紹介しています。ウクライナの支援、国防費の増やし方、国内の選挙状況などが議論されています。特に、国防費の2.5%のGDPへの引き上げや、保守党と労働党の対比、そして新たな改革党の台頭が選挙戦に影響を与える可能性について触れられています。
Takeaways
- 🌏 自由世界のリーダー、G7サミットの開催により国際的な不安定性と国内の動揺が重なる中、誕生日を迎える。
- 🎤 世界で最も居心地の悪い歌手として、国際的な緊張感と国内の混乱を象徴している。
- 🇺🇦 ウクライナの議長と教皇がG7サミットの星ゲストとして集まり、ウクライナに対する祈りと支援を表明。
- 🏠 ロシアは、ウクライナ軍をドネツク人民共和国からの完全撤退を要求し、領土の放棄とNATO加盟の見送りを条件に停戦を提案。
- 💰 G7は凍結されたロシアの資産を解凍し、ウクライナに約400億ポンドを提供することでロシアの要求に対抗。
- 🇫🇷 フランス大統領は右派への大打撃を受けた後、急遽選挙を呼びかけた。
- 🇺🇸 米国大統領バイデンは選挙直前で支持率が後退しており、G7での決断が彼の政権維持に影響を及ぼす可能性がある。
- 🇬🇧 英国の首相はG7で防衛費をGDPの2.5%に引き上げるという急速な誓約を行い、選挙後のNATOサミットに参加する。
- 🕊️ 英国は、欧州での持続的な同盟関係に大きな問いが投げかけられている状況下で、平和維持の役割を果たすために防衛費を増やす必要がある。
- 🏆 労働党はウクライナに対する支持を表明し、国境の守りとNATOへの加盟を支持する。
- 📊 選挙戦では、改革党が急成長しており、保守党との支持率が接近している。
Q & A
G7サミットの重要なテーマは何ですか?
-G7サミットの重要なテーマは、国際的な不安定さ、国内の混乱、ウクライナの状況、そして国防費の増加です。
ウクライナの現状とG7サミットでの対応はどのようなものですか?
-ウクライナは国際的な支援を必要としており、G7サミットでは、軍事支援と訓練援助を10年間提供することを約束し、ロシアの凍結資産を解凍してウクライナに約400億ポンドを提供することを同意しました。
ロシアが提出した停戦の条件は何ですか?
-ロシアは、ウクライナ軍をドネツク州の人民共和国から完全撤退させ、ウクライナの領土を放棄し、NATOへの加盟を断念するよう要求しています。
フランスの大統領が急遽選挙を呼びかけた理由は何ですか?
-フランスの大統領は、極右派に対する大きな敗北の後、急遽選挙を呼びかけました。
バイデン大統領は選挙の数日前にどのような問題に直面していますか?
-バイデン大統領は、選挙の数日前に支持率が下がっており、国内の選挙に直面しています。
イギリスの国防費の目標はどのくらいですか?
-イギリスは、GDPの2.5%に国防費を増やすという目標を2030年までに設定しています。
労働党と保守党の国防に関する見解の違いは何ですか?
-労働党はウクライナに対する支持を強調しており、国防費の2.5%の目標を目指していますが、保守党は国防費の具体的な目標を設定していないと指摘されています。
プーチン大統領はG7サミットをどのように評価していますか?
-プーチン大統領は、選挙や国内の弱い状況に直面するG7の指導者たちを見て、彼らの動きを利用してロシアの利益を推進しようとしています。
イギリスの選挙での改革党の立ち位置はどのようなものですか?
-改革党は選挙で支持を獲得しており、保守党の支持を分割して影響力を増やしている可能性があります。
選挙戦術に関するアリスト・キャンベルとクレイグ・オリバーの意見はどのように異なりますか?
-アリスト・キャンベルは労働党が選挙に没頭していると感じていますが、クレイグ・オリバーは保守党が早期選挙を行ったことが大きな失敗だったと指摘しています。
Outlines
😔 国際情勢と国内の動揺
第1段落では、世界中で起こる国際的な不安定さと国内の混乱が重なり合う中で、G7サミットが開催された。この際、ドイツの恥ずかしい出来事にもかかわらず、ウクライナの大統領と教皇が重要なゲストとして招かれた。彼らはG7サミットのサイドラインで会談し、その影響は1500マイル離れた場所で反響を呼び起こした。ロシアは、ウクライナ軍の撤退と東部領土の放棄、NATOへの加盟の見送りを要求した一方で、アメリカは軍事支援を保証し、G7はロシアの凍結資産を解凍してウクライナに資金援助を提供することを決定した。しかし、これらの決断は、国内外で弱まっているリーダーたちの状況を表している。フランスの大統領は右派に大打撃を受けた後に急遽選挙を呼びかけ、バイデン大統領は選挙直前に支持率が下がっている。英国の首相も国内での課題に直面しており、世界は数十年ぶりの危険な状況にあるとされている。
😠 英国の防衛費増と選挙戦の動向
第2段落では、英国が国防費をGDPの2.5%に引き上げることを2023年までに誓約し、選挙戦で国防費の増が議論された。保守党は国家サービス計画を発表し、労働党はウクライナを支持すると表明した。両党は選挙戦で特に外国政策について話していないが、ウクライナの情況はヨーロッパの安全保障に影響を与えており、英国は通常の国防を検討し始めている。選挙戦の結果、改革党が急成長しており、保守党の支持を割り当てている可能性がある。選挙戦の分析では、保守党のキャンペーンは早期選挙の大きな失敗だったとされ、メディアはトーリーズの混乱を伝えることに比べて、労働党の政権運営について深く掘り下げることができないとされている。
😕 選挙戦の現状と各党の戦略
第3段落では、選挙戦の現状が分析されており、保守党のキャンペーンは災害とされ、労働党は自信を持ち、自信を高めている。ニジェル・ファージはポピュリズムを推進しており、保守党をいじめている。改革党の支持は増加しており、選挙戦の結果に大きな影響を与える可能性がある。選挙戦の分析では、労働党は安全な立場から選挙戦に挑んでいるが、保守党は防衛的なキャンペーンを展開している。選挙戦の後半では、選挙制度の不公平さが議論される可能性があるとされている。
😞 選挙戦の退屈さと各党の課題
第4段落では、選挙戦は退屈とされており、労働党は政府での活動についての明確なビジョンを示していない。保守党は過去の失敗から回復しようと努力しているが、その難しさが指摘されている。労働党は選挙戦の後半で政府での活動についてより具体的に話すことが勧められている。選挙戦の分析では、選挙戦の退屈さが選挙戦の結果に影響を与える可能性があるとされており、各党は選挙戦の最後の数週間で自分たちの政策をより具体的に示すことが求められている。
Mindmap
Keywords
💡G7サミット
💡ウクライナ
💡国際安保
💡選挙
💡国防費
💡NATO
💡改革党
💡ポピュリズム
💡選挙制度
💡政策
Highlights
Good morning everyone; the leader of the Free World addresses the challenges of international insecurity and domestic upheaval.
The German Chancellor and Ukrainian President attend the G7 Summit, emphasizing the importance of global cooperation.
Pope's presence at the G7 Summit highlights the moral and ethical considerations in international politics.
Ukrainian President thanks for prayers and support, indicating the ongoing conflict's impact on international relations.
Russian demands for a ceasefire include the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops and surrender of territory, complicating peace negotiations.
US pledges military and training aid for Ukraine for the next decade, showing a long-term commitment to the conflict.
G7 agrees to unlock frozen Russian assets to fund Ukraine, reflecting economic measures against Russia.
Leaders face domestic challenges, such as elections and political shifts, affecting their international stances.
The UK pledges to increase defense spending to 2.5% of GDP by 2030, indicating a strategic shift in national priorities.
The ongoing conflict in Europe and the Middle East raises questions about the future of international alliances.
Both main UK parties express support for Ukraine, but differ on the specifics of defense spending commitments.
The potential end of the post-Cold War peace dividend prompts discussions on defense funding among European countries.
Voters feel insecure due to global events, influencing domestic political campaigns to focus on defense.
The Reform Party's rise in polls could impact the conservative vote, indicating a shift in political dynamics.
Experts discuss the potential implications of the election on foreign policy, particularly regarding Europe and defense.
The debate on electoral reform may emerge if there's a significant disparity between votes and parliamentary seats.
The transcript highlights the complexity of navigating domestic politics amidst global challenges.
Transcripts
the leader of the Free World good
morning everyone birthday yes leading
the world's most awkward of singer
alongs through four Smiles the weight of
international insecurity and domestic
upheaval bearing down on almost all
happy birth to
youy birthday
dear it may have been the German
chancell being serated but the Ukrainian
president and Pope are the star guests
at this Gathering thank you for your
prayers for Ukraine
ukrainians they met on the sidelines of
this week's G7 Summit their galvanizing
impact though Drew reaction one and a
half thousand miles
away the conditions are very simple
Ukrainian troops must be completely
withdrawn from the donets lank's people
Republic hon zapar
region surrender of Ukrainian territory
he not even fully control regime
changing keev and dropping their bid to
join NATO Russia's demands for a
ceasefire announced this
afternoon retaliation to deals done
overnight the US guaranteeing military
and training aid for a decade to come
and the G7 agreeing to unlock Frozen
Russian assets to raise almost 40
billion pounds to hand to Ukraine but
these bold moves bely the precarious
grounds many of these weakened leaders
tread the president of France called a
snap election after heavy losses to the
far right President Biden now trailing
in the polls just ahead of a US election
extra guest India's Narendra Modi
reelected with a weakened majority and
the UK's own prime minister and the
states could hardly be high the world
today is more dangerous than it's been
for decades that's why the UK has made
up hard and fast pledge to increase
defense spending to 2 and a half% of GDP
by 2030 whoever wins this general
election will fly to Washington for a
NATO Summit just days after the result
and immediately face the enormity of the
task in hand yeah we do have
both an ongoing conflict in Europe
unfolding crisis in the Middle East we
have a world where some of the UK's most
enduring alliances have big question
marks around them you know we don't know
what's going to happen in the US
election we're at a bit of a turning
point you know we have an expensive
welfare state we have an aging
population so a lot of calls on the
public purse at home but
also we're kind of potentially looking
at the end of of the sort of post Cold
War peace dividend lots of European
countries are having to think now about
how are we going to fund defense what
kind of defense do we need in the world
so that's that's real equally there's a
sense that the parties have picked up on
this idea that voters feel insecure
Richie sunk has put defense front and
center of the conservatives campaign St
ing it by announcing a national service
scheme and repeating time and again the
world will be a less safe place with
labor in power will Ukraine get the same
support under a labor government the
entire labor party is united in support
of Ukraine will give Ukraine the support
it requires until the ukrainians win I
think the whole UK is united in this it
is an essential Mission and it's
fundamentally about the National
Security of all of Europe and is that an
unwavering commitment regardless of the
cost there's no spending cap on this we
will be supporting Ukraine until Ukraine
wins a lot of people would look at say
that's that's fair enough and that's big
rhetoric but ultimately in your
Manifesto you haven't committed solidly
to raising defense spending to 2.5 of
GDP it's an aspiration but it's not a
commitment we have made a very strong
argument that the economy has to be
stronger before there's a whole range of
longer term improvements in public
services that we can deliver the Prime
Minister marched into the G7 trailing
labor in the polls he will return
trading the Reform Party in one pole and
having made commitments he may well not
be in office for to deliver well joining
me now is bronwin Maddox the director of
the foreign policy Think Tank chattam
house When Vladimir Putin looks at this
Gathering of leaders weakened facing
elections resurgent right Wings about to
be turfed out is he laughing
yes and he's picking his moment to
undermine not just the G7 but the big
Summit on uh trying to help Ukraine that
starts tomorrow in Switzerland uh about
90 countries Gathering to see what can
be done about that so it is entirely
positional this uh supposed offer that
he's made he wants to put himself uh
apparently even if there's only the the
the the meest uh claim to that being
well-founded that he wants to put
himself on the moral High ground and say
to the world I am offering the peace
deal and uh get it and undermine all the
things the G7 is doing to get at him I
mean there's some future proofing being
attempted isn't there with the Biden um
you know deal being signed uh yet Putin
knows that if Trump were to win in
November Everything Changes he has High
Hopes I think that if Trump were to win
that some of the things that Trump has
said about doing a deal immediately
would be to his Advantage though Trump
is uh by his very nature unpredictable
and even Vladimir Putin couldn't
couldn't count on that but he is trying
to to Rattle the G7 and to make them
think I would suspect particularly
France and Germany make them think look
is there an alternative way are we at
some point going to be talking about a
deal but also as as you as you said they
have been doing some things to toughen
up on Russia even in the past couple of
days raising this loan against Frozen
Russian assets to give money to Ukraine
tightening up on Russian sanctions so
the G7 even if weakened as your
colleagues were saying uh the individual
leaders uh it is not without bite um
foreign policy hasn't really featured in
this election campaign back home yet
very much um there's just been this
argument about defense spending um where
does that leave us in terms of the next
government and the direction it might
pursue there's only one word that really
differentiates the two parties on paper
in in a significant way and that is
Rwanda uh you can argue about whether or
not that is foreign policy or domestic
policy because it's about migration but
there they are starkly different
and you have a bit of a a difference of
tone on Europe where labor wants to get
as close to Europe without mentioning
the word brexit or Customs Union or
anything like that as Europe might might
um allow um but then you don't have very
much difference at all and that is part
of the reason that I think it hasn't
featured very uh prominently in all this
and the other reason is that they really
neither of them want to talk about
Europe that has been so toxic in any
kind of electoral context so they've got
no reason to on the other hand there is
an awful lot of foreign policy around
Ukraine affects the security um of
Europe it is the the main thing pushing
up those defense numbers saying Britain
and other countries need to think very
hard about their very ordinary defense
how to make more ammunition and
artillery and that kind of thing and
it's um you know it is it is
destabilizing for fuel prices and all
kinds of things but but there could be
really big things happening over the
next year or so on all sorts of fronts
whether it's Ukraine or China Taiwan or
the Middle East um do we have a strong
sense of what you know a possible prime
minister stama would be doing on all of
these fronts he's taken a very um
deliberate if you like front foot
approach to all this and and labor has
not always liked that talking very much
about defense or about wars or indeed
about the United States or things um
preferring to talk about development Aid
and how Britain can work with other
countries abroad but he has been quite
trenchant K starm and saying look we're
completely behind Ukraine uh we're
behind defense uh we're behind Britain
taking a very assertive role in the
world um so that's all we have to go on
so not a lot of change not a lot of
change except possibly on Gaza and there
we have to see because of the strains
that has caused in his party problem M
thank you very much now in the election
one new opinion poll shows the Reform
Party overtaking the conservatives
leading Nigel farage to claim today he
is the real leader of the opposition the
ugu poll for the Times put labor way out
in front with 37% of the vote but it
also shows support for reform Rising 2
point to 19% while the conservatives
were unchanged on 18 numbers it says are
within the margin of error and the LI
dens aren't far behind on 14 but other
polls show the Tor is still ahead of
Reform this from the pollster Electoral
calculus is based on opinion polls
carried out over the last week it puts
reform on 14.8 % behind the
conservatives on
21.9 and is similar to most other pole
aggregators but turn that into the
number of seats it predicts and other
predictions are out there each party
will win and you see labor with a
massive majority the conservatives with
just 80 the lib Dems not far behind with
63 reform wins just one seat on that
projection fewer than the
greens well earlier I spoke to to former
government directors of communication
alist Campbell and Craig Oliver for
labor and the conservatives respectively
as well as Professor Rosie Campbell of
King's College London and I started by
asking Craig Oliver what he thought of
the conservative campaign so far I think
three things are probably clear the
first is it clearly was a massive
mistake to hold an early election for
the conservative party it's a serious
problem for them the second thing is I
think the media is finding it much
easier to cover the Tories in meltdown
story than they are what on Earth is
labor going to do in power and I think
the other more interesting story which I
think we'll probably get to towards the
end of the campaign is exactly what is
labor going to do in power is it
painting itself into a corner by ruling
out a whole load of things during the
campaign so that they're not awkward now
but in the future maybe real chickens
that come home to roost aliser how do
you think it's gone this week I think
it's been pretty catastrophic for the
conservatives I I feel that the D-Day
Fiasco was kind of defining I just think
it was one of those moments where people
thought this guy just can't do the job
um and I think his his confidence has
looked very very low whereas I think K
st's confidence has risen I also think
that neither of the main parties can
really work out how to deal with Nigel
farage farage to my mind still gets
treated more like a kind of you know
cheeky chappy comedian than he does as a
very dangerous populist politician but
he's riding that he's really tweaking
the Tory's Tale the whole time Rosie how
seismic do you think the reform position
is this week well it's not seismic if we
look at Raw numbers I think you know we
see an incremental increase but I think
in terms of the potential impact on the
conservative vote it could be seismic in
that it's splitting the vote um in
constituencies that perhaps we wouldn't
have thought of as being marginal in the
past are going to be marginal and if if
um reform do as well as they are in the
polls right now the conservatives will
lose many more cons constituencies than
they were expecting to and so what
effect do you think is is it going to be
you know the end result is even fewer
conservative MPS and a very composition
yes I think possibly with farage in
Parliament as well but who knows but
that that's the most likely outcome
indeed Craig I mean doesn't that raise
even stronger the possibility of farage
leading the rights yeah no look and he's
definitely out there trying to suggest
that that could be the case I mean my
personal view is a conservative party
would be absolutely insane to allow him
in and there are certain people in the
conservative party who definitely think
it's the solution personally I think it
would be the end of the conservative
party certainly for a long period of
time look obviously what is clear now is
that they are running a defensive
campaign and they are trying to minimize
the number of seats Ley get that is a
very difficult position to be in
especially with three weeks to go alist
is there a danger that every if
everybody thinks Labor's going to win
anyway you get a much stronger protest
vote and you could get a surprising
result I think I think it is a problem
for labor labor have got to fight this
election every day like they think they
can lose it even though everybody's
saying that it's all over I think one
the other thing is that I think will
start to come into closer into view is
the whole issue of the electoral system
that debate is going to get very
complicated if Labour were to get a
massive majority on a you know sub 40%
kind of vote if reform were to get
several million votes but maybe no MPS
if the liberal Democrats which is
entirely possible were to get 4050 seats
on exactly the same share of the vot as
they had last time that debate I think
is one that maybe is going to start to
emerge in the second half of the
campaign yeah I mean Rosie there's going
to be an increasing unfairness argument
isn't there when we look at this result
yeah although it is it is I mean I can
see I absolutely can see Alisa's point
but on the other hand there are many
places that have been safe seats for
many many years when nobody's ever
knocked on their door who suddenly
people are noticing them so actually
there will be a lot of people in the
electorate who suddenly feel that this
election is relevant to them in the way
it hasn't been in previous years but but
the we we could be in a situation come
Friday the 5th where Kia starma has got
less votes than Jeremy Corbin got um at
the last election but has a landslide
majority I mean it's just going to make
our democracy look mad isn't it yes but
then what's the mechanism for fixing
that because I think a party with a
massive majority is very unlikely to
take on electoral reform well I mean
aliser isn't labor leaving a vacuum for
reform to fill you know we had their
Manifesto and there's nothing to talk
about because there's nothing new in it
so it hasn't spark to debate and that's
left the way clear for Nigel farage to
fill the Gap no I don't agree with that
I I I think that you're they made a
virtue of having essentially put out the
main elements of their policy proposals
in advance the yesterday was all about
saying you say there's no policy you say
there's no plan here's a lot of policy
and it represents a plan I do think
there's a real problem with neither of
the main parties kind of wanting to
engage with Nigel farage and his his
populist Poli
on its own terms which means that farage
is allowed to carry on playing this game
of almost being like a sort of the
Johnson figure of modern poliy so would
you go out and attack him now if you
were running the labor campaign I would
I I would certainly be going after the
damage that populism has done to this
country and I think that farage
represents a very dangerous force in our
politics and and we you know we should
Pander to it in our Peril Craig look I
don't disagree with any of that but look
I keep thinking about a word cloud that
I saw from one of the pollsters this
week which is basically words describing
the election and the dominating word by
a factor of 10 was boring that is
because the labor party despite what
Alistair is saying is not really giving
us a clear picture of what it's going to
do in government and I think that
actually that is something that they
could do they can afford to say look we
can do this and I think we've got to a
stage where people are so worried about
losing the election that let's face
facts they've already won well they
might they might say well look look what
Happ Theresa May you know she tried to
come out with some big Ideas totally
messed up so I totally understand that
point but you don't have to go around
ruling everything out so every time the
conservatives pop up and say you're
going to do vat or what about the triple
lock on pensions you don't have to say
we're ruling out the vat thing or we're
we're going to keep the triple lock
competions for the next five years these
things seem to me to be very very
strange things to commit to um given
that they know that they're going to go
in it could be very difficult aliser if
you were advising rushy sunak and trying
to pull his campaign back on the rails
what would you saying I guess the only
thing he's got left now is to show
there's a bit of fight in him um but you
know the truth is I think he's he's
fallen victim to coming on the end of
two of the worst prime ministers in the
country's history Johnson trust did
massive damage to the conservative party
he hasn't differentiated them himself
from them enough uh he's pandered to the
right of his party rather than
challenging it and I'm afraid he's
reaping what he s so I guess if I was
being a genuine friend to him i' just
say look try and enjoy it and get out
the other end Al
alive Craig if you were advising kir
starma well look I think it's really
difficult when they're clearly it's
working for them right you know like the
Temptation is to say to the lab party
just keep going keep being boring keep
batting it off I actually genuinely do
think that they should show more leg I
think they should go out there and talk
a lot more about what they are actually
going to do in government and some real
pressing problems that are going to be
on their agenda very very soon and I
think that they will find in the five or
even 10 years that they're in power that
having done that would have been a
massive benefit to them they can afford
to do it go out there use the final
three weeks of this campaign to start
putting some flesh on the bone Rosie
Craig and alist thank you all very much
indeed thank you
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