PrizePicks: AVOID These 6 Mistakes to Make More Money!

Summary

This video offers expert advice on maximizing profitability in daily fantasy sports and betting platforms like PrizePicks and FanDuel. The speaker explains the importance of using tools like Odds Jam to identify favorable picks, avoid negatively correlated outcomes, and focus on favored scenarios to ensure profitable bets. Emphasizing market data and sharp sportsbooks, the video guides viewers on making informed, data-driven decisions, optimizing picks for better payout, and understanding how correlation impacts betting strategies. Whether new to the platforms or experienced, this video provides valuable insights for smarter betting.

Takeaways

• 😀 Using the Odds Jam Positive EV tool helps identify bets with a higher probability of winning by comparing sportsbook odds.
• 😀 A bet is profitable when it has an expected win rate higher than the minimum threshold (54.25%) on PrizePicks.
• 😀 The Yurfy (Yes Run First Inning) bet has a 56.5% win rate, making it a favorable pick for betting.
• 😀 Correlation between picks matters when making parlays, especially on PrizePicks where fixed payouts do not account for correlations.
• 😀 Avoid pairing negatively correlated outcomes in the same slip, like betting both overs for players on the same team.
• 😀 On PrizePicks, a player going over their points will likely cause another player on the same team to go under, making them negatively correlated.
• 😀 FanDuel adjusts payouts based on correlations in same-game parlays, offering worse payouts for positively correlated picks.
• 😀 For profitable betting on PrizePicks, you need to bet on outcomes with favorable odds, like the over on first inning runs.
• 😀 Underdog outcomes (e.g., Nerfy or No Run First Inning) should be avoided on PrizePicks since they are less likely to be profitable.
• 😀 On PrizePicks, your picks should have a higher chance of winning (e.g., 56.5%) to generate a profit margin, with favored outcomes being ideal.
• 😀 PrizePicks does not account for correlations between picks, so betting on favored outcomes is key to consistent profitability.

Q & A

What is the significance of using the OddsJam positive EV tool for PrizePicks?

The OddsJam positive EV tool helps identify profitable picks by comparing lines on PrizePicks to sports book odds. This allows users to find bets with positive expected value, increasing the chances of making profitable selections, especially when focusing on favored outcomes.

Why should bettors avoid pairing negatively correlated picks on PrizePicks?

Pairing negatively correlated picks, like taking two players from the same team to both go over their points, is risky because if one player performs well, the other is less likely to perform well. Since PrizePicks uses fixed payouts, the correlation does not affect the payouts, and these picks can lead to lower profitability.

How can the use of sportsbook odds help improve PrizePicks betting strategies?

By analyzing sportsbook odds and comparing them with PrizePicks' odds, bettors can identify value picks. The sportsbook lines, which reflect the broader market, can highlight which outcomes are favored and which are underdogs, allowing bettors to focus on profitable, favored bets.

What is the suggested win rate for individual picks on PrizePicks to be profitable?

For a 5 or 6 pick flex play to be profitable on PrizePicks, individual picks need to win at least 54.25% of the time. Ideally, bettors should aim for a higher win rate, such as 57-60%, to achieve a greater profit margin.

Why is betting on underdog outcomes discouraged on PrizePicks?

Betting on underdog outcomes, like taking the under on a first inning total runs prop, is discouraged because such bets have lower probabilities of hitting. Since you need to win at least 54.25% of your picks to be profitable on PrizePicks, it's better to focus on favored outcomes, which are more likely to succeed.

How does correlation impact payouts on PrizePicks versus FanDuel?

On PrizePicks, correlation does not affect payouts for the same game picks, meaning you’ll get the same payout regardless of the picks' correlation. However, FanDuel factors in correlation for same-game parlays, adjusting the odds based on the likelihood that the events will occur together.

What is the role of sportsbook data in identifying profitable picks for PrizePicks?

Sportsbook data, especially from sharp books like Circa, provides a weighted average of odds, which can help bettors identify which outcomes are favored. By comparing these odds with PrizePicks’ offerings, bettors can pinpoint selections that have higher expected value and thus increase profitability.

Why is the Yurfy (Yes Run First Inning) a better bet than the Nerfy (No Run First Inning) on PrizePicks?

The Yurfy (Yes Run First Inning) is favored in many MLB games, as it has a higher likelihood of hitting. On sportsbooks like FanDuel, the over for first inning total runs is typically favored, indicating that the Yurfy is a more profitable choice compared to betting on the Nerfy, which is an underdog outcome.

What does it mean that PrizePicks has 'fixed payouts,' and how does this affect betting strategies?

PrizePicks offers fixed payouts, meaning that the payout for each slip is predetermined, regardless of the correlation between picks. This makes it important for bettors to avoid including negatively correlated picks in the same slip, as they won't benefit from adjustments in odds due to correlation, unlike sportsbooks like FanDuel.

What would be an example of a negatively correlated pair of picks in a PrizePicks slip?

An example of a negatively correlated pair would be pairing two players from the same team to both go over their points. If one player, such as SGA, performs well, the other player, like Jaylen Williams, is more likely to underperform. These kinds of combinations reduce the likelihood of both picks winning and should be avoided.