IMF Ramal Ekonomi Indonesia 2025-2026 Bakal Anjlok! [Zona Bisnis]

Summary

The transcript discusses the economic impact of President Trump's tariff policies, focusing on how they are affecting global and Indonesian economic growth. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised global growth projections downward, citing trade tensions and uncertainty. Specifically, IMF predicts Indonesia’s GDP growth will slow to 4.7% in 2025 and 2026, down from earlier forecasts. Other institutions like the World Bank and Bank Indonesia also offer revised economic outlooks, considering factors like reduced exports, weakening household consumption, and lower investment. The Indonesian government is preparing for these challenges as they revise fiscal targets.

Takeaways

• 😀 The IMF has sharply downgraded global economic growth projections for 2025 and 2026 due to the impact of tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump.
• 😀 The IMF forecasts global growth at 2.8% for 2025, a significant decline from the 3.3% predicted earlier in the year.
• 😀 The IMF also predicts a decline in Indonesia's GDP growth to 4.7% in 2025 and 2026, a reduction from the earlier forecast of 5.1%.
• 😀 The IMF has revised its unemployment projections for Indonesia, expecting it to rise to 5% in 2025 and 5.1% in 2026.
• 😀 The growth rate in Southeast Asia, including ASEAN nations like Indonesia, Malaysia, and others, is predicted to slow to 3.6% in 2025.
• 😀 Both the IMF and World Bank had initially forecasted Indonesian economic growth to remain around 5% for 2025 and 2026, but the IMF has since downgraded its forecast to 4.7%.
• 😀 The tariffs imposed by the United States have escalated beyond initial projections, with a more significant impact on global trade, affecting projections for 2025.
• 😀 Bank Indonesia has revised its growth forecast for 2025 to a range of 4.7% to 5.5%, adjusting for factors such as weak export performance and decreasing household consumption, especially among lower-income groups.
• 😀 The Ministry of Finance in Indonesia has set a target growth rate of 5.2% for 2025, factoring in the impact of the US tariff policies.
• 😀 The dynamic global economy, especially with China's role and fluctuating tariff policies, requires careful attention from both the Indonesian government and businesses to adjust to the changing landscape.

Q & A

What impact has Trump's tariff policy had on global and Indonesian economic growth?

Trump's tariff policy has negatively affected global economic growth, causing a decrease in Indonesia's projected GDP growth for 2025 and 2026. The IMF has revised its forecast downward due to the global trade tensions sparked by these tariffs.

How much has the IMF revised its global growth projection for 2025?

The IMF has revised its global growth projection for 2025 down to 2.8%, from the previous estimate of 3.3% in January. This marks the slowest expansion since the COVID-19 pandemic.

What are the projected economic growth rates for Indonesia in 2025 according to the IMF?

The IMF projects Indonesia's economic growth to be 4.7% in 2025, a decrease from the earlier forecast of 5.1% in January.

How does the IMF's latest forecast for Indonesia compare to the World Bank's prediction?

The IMF's latest forecast for Indonesia's GDP growth in 2025 is 4.7%, while the World Bank's forecast remains at 5.1%, based on their January 2025 report.

Why has the IMF revised its growth forecast for Indonesia?

The IMF revised its growth forecast for Indonesia due to various factors, including the impact of higher tariffs imposed by the United States and the weaker global trade environment, which have affected Indonesia's economic outlook.

What is the expected unemployment rate in Indonesia for 2025 according to the IMF?

The IMF predicts that Indonesia's unemployment rate will rise to 5% in 2025 and 5.1% in 2026, up from 4.9% in 2024.

What are the economic growth projections for ASEAN countries in 2025 and 2026?

The IMF forecasts Southeast Asian (ASEAN-5) economies, including Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, the Philippines, and Singapore, will grow by 3.6% in 2025 and 4.3% in 2026.

What role do tariffs from the U.S. under Trump's administration play in the economic outlook?

The tariffs imposed by President Trump are a major factor contributing to the slowdown in global economic growth. These tariffs have triggered trade wars and increased uncertainty in global markets, impacting countries like Indonesia.

How does Bank Indonesia's growth forecast for 2025 compare to the IMF's?

Bank Indonesia forecasts Indonesia's economic growth to be between 4.7% and 5.5% in 2025, while the IMF has a more conservative forecast of 4.7%. Bank Indonesia's range reflects their optimism about the economy but accounts for some uncertainty.

What are some of the key factors influencing Indonesia's economic growth in 2025?

Key factors affecting Indonesia's economic growth in 2025 include lower export growth, reduced household consumption, especially in lower-income groups, and weak private investment due to high production capacity relative to domestic demand.