This Severe Weather Setup Looks SERIOUS...

Summary

A major severe weather outbreak is expected from May 14th to May 19th, 2025, affecting the upper Midwest and Great Lakes, with risks of large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. On May 14th, Chicago, Milwaukee, and surrounding areas are under enhanced storm risks. Severe weather continues on May 15th and 16th, especially in the Ozark Plateau and Ohio River Valley. Meanwhile, Texas is gripped by a dangerous heatwave, with temperatures soaring above 100°F, potentially reaching 110°F in some areas. The stormy pattern will persist through the weekend, with more intense weather anticipated in the Southern Plains.

Takeaways

• 🌩️ Severe weather outbreak is expected across the upper Midwest, including large hail, damaging winds, and a small risk of tornadoes for about 36 million people.
• 🔥 A major heat wave is baking Texas, with temperatures exceeding 100°F in central and southern regions, including cities like San Antonio and Austin.
• 🌪️ The upper-level trough affecting the Midwest is set to shift, leading to more efficient storm development, possibly resulting in severe weather like large hail and tornadoes.
• 🌪️ Chicago, Milwaukee, and areas in Indiana and Ohio are at risk for severe storms, with a 30% chance of large hail and 15% risk of damaging winds.
• ⚠️ Significant tornado risks exist, particularly in Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio, due to strong wind shear and high CAPE values, though overall tornado probability remains low.
• 🌬️ A potential tornado outbreak could occur around 5:00 p.m. in Wisconsin, later moving through Illinois and into the Midwest, possibly affecting cities like Indianapolis and Chicago.
• 💨 The severe weather event could lead to damaging winds and large hail, particularly in Illinois and southern Wisconsin, with storms expected to impact late evening hours.
• 🌡️ The heat wave in Texas, brought on by a high-pressure system, is set to continue for several days, with temperatures reaching up to 110°F in some areas.
• 📅 Looking ahead to May 16th, a slight risk of severe weather (Level 2) will stretch across the Ozark Plateau and Ohio River Valley, potentially affecting cities like St. Louis and Nashville.
• 🌀 From May 18th to 19th, the southern plains (Oklahoma, Kansas) will see a heightened severe weather risk, including dryline storms with potential for supercells and large hail.

Q & A

What major weather events are happening in the upper Midwest and Texas?

A major severe weather outbreak is expected in the upper Midwest, with a strong risk of storms, large hail, damaging winds, and possibly tornadoes. At the same time, a record-breaking heat wave is gripping Texas, with temperatures exceeding 100°F in large areas.

What are the two main weather features driving the current weather pattern?

The two main weather features are a powerful upper-level trough over the inner mountain west and a strong upper-level ridge, or heat dome, over Texas and the Gulf Coast. These features will interact, causing severe weather and intense heat.

What specific areas are at risk for severe weather on Thursday, May 15th?

On Thursday, May 15th, an enhanced risk of severe weather is expected for around 16 million people, including cities like Chicago, Milwaukee, Madison, and Grand Rapids. A larger slight risk area includes 25 million people, including Detroit, Indianapolis, and Minneapolis.

What are the primary threats associated with the severe weather on May 15th?

The primary threats are large hail, with a 30% chance in some areas, damaging winds, with a 15% to 30% chance, and a smaller tornado risk affecting 36 million people. The most significant threat appears to be large hail.

What is the significance of the CAPE values for May 15th's severe weather?

The CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) values on May 15th are expected to be between 2,000 to 3,000 joules per kilogram, which is more than enough to fuel explosive thunderstorms capable of producing large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes.

Why is there uncertainty regarding tornado risks on May 15th?

There is uncertainty because while favorable conditions for tornadoes exist, the exact location where they will form is uncertain. The areas with the most favorable conditions also have lower confidence in storm development, especially in parts of Indiana and Illinois.

What is the forecast for severe weather on Friday, May 16th?

On May 16th, the weather will be influenced by a warm front, leading to an unstable atmosphere. This will bring the possibility of supercells producing large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes in areas like St. Louis, Memphis, Nashville, and Indianapolis.

How will the low-level jet stream impact severe weather on May 16th?

The low-level jet stream is expected to produce winds over 50 knots, which will help enhance storm rotation. This could increase the likelihood of tornadoes, particularly in the areas with significant instability and wind shear.

What weather is expected for the southern plains on Sunday, May 18th and Monday, May 19th?

The southern plains will face significant severe weather, including supercells and possible tornado outbreaks. The setup will be influenced by Lee cyclogenesis, leading to prolonged storm activity across Oklahoma, Kansas, and surrounding areas.

How is the heat wave in Texas affecting temperatures?

The heat wave in Texas is causing air temperatures to soar from 100°F to 110°F across much of the state, including cities like San Antonio, Austin, and parts of the Rio Grande. The high-pressure ridge is suppressing clouds and rain, leading to relentless sunshine and hot conditions.