How to See the Future Coming — and Prepare for It | Jane McGonigal | TED

Summary

In this thought-provoking talk, a futurist challenges us to confront the 'unimaginable' and 'unthinkable' by exploring hypothetical future scenarios. From global geoengineering votes to zero-waste authoritarianism and mass climate migration, the speaker invites audiences to imagine their reactions, decisions, and preparations in radically altered worlds. By engaging with these scenarios, participants develop 'imagination leadership skills,' enhancing mental flexibility, realistic hope, and future readiness. The talk emphasizes that no future is truly unthinkable and encourages proactive thinking to face and solve emerging global challenges, fostering a society capable of navigating and shaping uncertain futures with confidence and creativity.

Takeaways

• 🌍 The words 'unimaginable' and 'unthinkable' can limit our ability to prepare for the future.
• 🧠 Thinking creatively and courageously is essential for tackling complex, hard-to-imagine scenarios.
• ☀️ Geoengineering, such as solar radiation management, may become a global solution to extreme climate challenges, but it carries risks and uncertainty.
• 🗳️ Public engagement and education are crucial when deciding on large-scale interventions like Sun Exit.
• ⚖️ Even when solutions work, trust in science may paradoxically decline due to misinformation or perceived side effects.
• ♻️ A zero-waste society may involve drastic lifestyle changes, but can also foster new positive emotions, such as 'zerophoria,' combining joy, pride, and resourcefulness.
• 💡 Individuals can respond to societal shifts by adapting, helping others, resisting, or reforming systems.
• 🏙️ Climate migration is a growing global trend, requiring planning, social support, and identification of climate-resilient cities.
• 📊 Imagination exercises help people improve mental flexibility, realistic hope, and future readiness.
• 🤝 Preparing for hard-to-imagine futures enables communities to face and solve challenges that might otherwise seem impossible.
• 🔮 Imagining possible futures allows people to anticipate risks, discover opportunities for positive transformation, and take proactive action.
• 💪 The most significant improvement from imagining futures comes in individuals’ sense of power and readiness to act.

Q & A

What are the two most dangerous words according to the speaker, and why?

The two most dangerous words are 'unimaginable' and 'unthinkable,' because labeling possibilities this way limits our ability to anticipate, prepare for, and respond creatively to future challenges.

What is the purpose of the 'What if?' game described in the talk?

The 'What if?' game is designed to encourage creative and courageous thinking by asking participants to imagine themselves in extreme future scenarios and reflect on how they would feel and act.

Describe the first hypothetical future scenario called 'Sun Exit.'

In 2033, extreme climate conditions lead to a global vote on geoengineering through solar radiation management, injecting sulfate particles into the atmosphere. The scenario tests public willingness to take large-scale risks and adapt to potential side effects.

How does the 'Sun Exit' scenario evolve after the vote passes?

Once Sun Exit passes, solar radiation management begins, which helps the climate, but paradoxically, trust in science drops due to concerns about mental and physical side effects, forcing people to consider how to stay informed and healthy.

What is the second hypothetical future scenario about zero-waste governance?

In 2029, the government enforces a zero-waste society, banning all garbage production. Citizens must adapt to new habits, and psychologists introduce the concept of 'Zerophoria,' a positive emotion from living waste-free.

How are individuals expected to respond in the zero-waste society scenario?

Individuals may choose to learn new habits, help others adapt, resist the policy, or propose reforms to improve the zero-waste system, emphasizing personal agency and creative problem-solving.

What is the third scenario concerning climate migration?

In 2031, climate migration becomes widespread, with countries competing to welcome immigrants into climate-resilient cities. Participants must select cities they would move to and assess their preparedness for relocation.

What are the three measures of future imagination described in the talk?

The three measures are mental flexibility (how plausible a scenario seems), realistic hope (emotional response to the scenario), and future power (readiness to act to help oneself and others).

Why does the speaker encourage avoiding the words 'unimaginable' and 'unthinkable'?

Avoiding these words fosters a mindset that is open to considering difficult or surprising futures, enhancing society's ability to anticipate risks and seize opportunities for positive transformation.

What is the ultimate goal of the imagination exercises in the talk?

The goal is to build imagination leadership skills, improve preparedness for future challenges, and develop a society capable of confidently addressing previously unimaginable problems together.

How does the talk suggest people can improve their readiness for the future?

By imagining themselves taking action in hypothetical scenarios, reflecting on emotional responses, learning new strategies, and considering both risks and opportunities, individuals can increase their readiness and resilience.

What role does community play in facing unimaginable futures according to the speaker?

Community collaboration amplifies problem-solving abilities, ensuring that society can collectively face complex challenges, share knowledge, and implement solutions that might be impossible individually.