How Populations Grow and Change: Crash Course Geography #33

Summary

This episode of Crash Course Geography explores the complexities of population dynamics, discussing both overpopulation and policies encouraging population growth. It delves into the historical perspectives of Malthus and Boserup, highlighting the debate on poverty's link to population growth. The video explains the Demographic Transition Model and population pyramids to illustrate birth and death rates' impact on population trends. It emphasizes the importance of understanding economic security and women's empowerment in managing population pressures and their environmental implications.

Takeaways

• 🌍 Earth's overpopulation can occur due to either high population density or resource overuse, both of which have significant environmental impacts.
• 📉 Some countries, particularly in Eastern Europe, are facing declining birth rates and have implemented policies to encourage population growth, contrasting with global overpopulation concerns.
• 🧐 Population issues are complex, involving not just numbers but also economic, cultural, and environmental factors.
• 🌱 Population geographers study the spatial aspects of populations, including why people are located where they are and how they impact their environment.
• 📚 Thomas Malthus' 'Malthusian Prediction' from 1798 suggested that population growth would outstrip resource availability, an idea that has been debated for centuries.
• 🔄 The Neo-Malthusian movement revived concerns about overpopulation and resource scarcity in the mid-20th century, influencing global population policies.
• 💡 Ester Boserup's theory countered Malthus by arguing that population pressure leads to agricultural innovation, suggesting that population growth can drive progress rather than disaster.
• 📊 Demographic tools like the Demographic Transition Model and population pyramids help understand and predict population changes and their economic implications.
• 🌐 The Demographic Transition Model outlines four stages of population change, from high birth and death rates to low growth or decline, influenced by economic development.
• 🌟 Empowering women through education and economic opportunities is a key factor in reducing birth rates and managing population growth.
• 🏛 Population trends must be considered in the context of economic security and societal roles to effectively address ecological and social challenges.

Q & A

What are the two ways Earth can be considered overpopulated according to the script?

Earth can be overpopulated when there is pressure in an area from more people than the area can support, or when even a small number of people overuse the resources in an area.

Why did countries in Eastern Europe start implementing policies to encourage more children in the early 2000s?

They noticed an alarming trend of fewer babies being born, which could potentially affect the economy and social support systems due to an aging population.

What is the Malthusian Prediction proposed by Thomas Malthus in 1798?

The Malthusian Prediction suggests that the world would soon be overrun by people who would use up all available resources due to agricultural production increasing linearly while the population seemed to be increasing exponentially.

What is the Boserup Theory and how does it differ from the Malthusian Prediction?

The Boserup Theory argues that people innovate, especially in agriculture, when there is pressure from having more mouths to feed, suggesting that poor people would not use up all resources as Malthus thought, and disaster was not imminent.

What does the term 'carrying capacity' mean in human geography?

Carrying capacity in human geography refers to how many people a given environment can support.

What is the Demographic Transition Model and what does it attempt to approximate?

The Demographic Transition Model is a tool used by demographers to approximate how different birth and death rates lead to population change and how that ties to the economy.

What are the four stages of the Demographic Transition Model?

The four stages are: Stage 1 with high birth and death rates leading to a small but steady population; Stage 2 with rapid population growth due to high birth rates and low death rates; Stage 3 where both death and birth rates start to decrease, slowing population growth; and Stage 4 with slow to declining population growth.

How does a population pyramid help population geographers?

A population pyramid allows population geographers to see historic impacts on population and predict future growth and decline, which helps governments allocate resources.

What are some factors that can lead to a decrease in birth rate according to the script?

Factors that can lead to a decrease in birth rate include economic security, education for women, and access to good paying jobs.

What is the role of a population geographer in understanding population trends?

A population geographer uses demographic tools and studies to assemble population trends into a picture that helps understand the role they play in economic and environmental issues, aiding societies in decision-making.

Why might some countries face an aging crisis despite the global population increase?

Some countries face an aging crisis because a large portion of their population is getting older without enough younger people to care for them, often due to low birth rates and high life expectancy.

Outlines

00:00

🌍 Overpopulation vs. Encouraging Higher Birth Rates

In this section, we explore the paradox of overpopulation concerns and the simultaneous encouragement of higher birth rates. The script references historical and recent policies, particularly in Europe, where countries like Estonia offer benefits to increase population amidst declining birth rates. This contrasts with global concerns about resource strain due to overpopulation. Understanding population dynamics helps predict urban and rural growth, cultural shifts, and political movements.

05:02

📊 Understanding Population Growth and Decline

This paragraph introduces the Demographic Transition Model, explaining the stages of population growth and decline. It covers Stage 1's high birth and death rates, Stage 2's rapid growth due to better healthcare, Stage 3's slowing growth as both rates decrease, and Stage 4's declining growth in economically stagnant regions. The section also highlights the use of population pyramids to visualize demographic changes and predict future trends, using Yemen's example to illustrate conflict impacts on population.

10:05

🌱 Population Trends and Economic Security

This section discusses the interplay between economic security, women's empowerment, and birth rates. It emphasizes that places with shaky economic security or poor child survival rates tend to have higher birth rates. Conversely, empowering women through education and employment leads to lower birth rates. The role of population geographers is highlighted, showing how they use demographic tools to inform policies that address economic and environmental challenges. The conclusion underscores the need to view population issues beyond mere numbers, considering the complex lives and economic contexts of people.

Keywords

💡Overpopulation

Overpopulation refers to a situation where the number of people exceeds the capacity of the environment to support them with resources such as food, water, and shelter. In the video, overpopulation is discussed in two contexts: areas with too many people for the available resources and areas where even a small number of people overuse resources. This concept is central to understanding the balance between population size and environmental sustainability.

💡Birth Rate

The birth rate is the number of live births per 1,000 people in a given year. In the video, birth rates are used to discuss population growth trends and how policies in places like Eastern Europe are encouraging higher birth rates to counter declining populations. Understanding birth rates is crucial for analyzing demographic changes and their impacts on society and the economy.

💡Demographic Transition Model

The Demographic Transition Model is a theoretical model that describes the transition from high birth and death rates to lower birth and death rates as a country develops economically. The video explains this model's stages to illustrate how population dynamics shift with economic changes. It helps predict future population trends and informs policies on economic and social planning.

💡Carrying Capacity

Carrying capacity in human geography refers to the maximum number of people that an environment can sustainably support. The video uses this concept to discuss how different levels of population pressure impact resources and environmental health. It emphasizes the need to balance population growth with resource availability.

💡Economic Security

Economic security refers to the stability of an individual's or a population's economic status, ensuring consistent income and access to necessary resources. The video highlights that higher economic security often correlates with lower birth rates, as seen in many developed countries. This concept is essential for understanding how economic factors influence population trends.

💡Malthusian Prediction

The Malthusian Prediction, proposed by Thomas Malthus, suggests that population growth will outpace agricultural production, leading to widespread scarcity and conflict. The video discusses how Malthus's predictions have been debated and refined over time, particularly regarding the links between poverty and population growth. It frames historical and modern concerns about overpopulation.

💡Population Pyramid

A population pyramid is a graphical representation showing the distribution of various age groups in a population, which typically forms the shape of a pyramid. The video uses population pyramids to analyze historical impacts and predict future trends, such as the effects of conflict in Yemen on its age distribution. This tool is vital for demographic analysis.

💡Migration

Migration refers to the movement of people from one place to another, often for economic, social, or environmental reasons. In the video, migration is discussed as a factor influencing population changes and economic stability, particularly in Stage 4 countries experiencing voluntary migration due to economic stagnation. It highlights the interconnectedness of population dynamics and migration patterns.

💡Agricultural Intensification

Agricultural intensification, as proposed by Ester Boserup, is the idea that agricultural production increases with population pressure through innovation and improved practices. The video contrasts this theory with Malthusian ideas, showing how human ingenuity can mitigate resource scarcity. It provides an alternative perspective on population growth and resource use.

💡Neo-Malthusian Movement

The Neo-Malthusian Movement emerged in the mid-20th century, reviving Malthusian concerns about population growth and environmental limits. The video mentions this movement's focus on reducing birth rates in poorer countries to prevent resource depletion. Understanding this movement helps contextualize modern debates on population control and sustainability.

Highlights

Two ways Earth can be overpopulated: pressure from too many people or overuse of resources.

Policies in Europe encouraging population growth due to declining birth rates.

Complexity of population issues including economic and cultural impacts.

Introduction to population geography focusing on spatial aspects and impacts.

Case study of habitat loss in India and its relation to banana varieties.

Historical context of overpopulation concerns dating back to Thomas Malthus.

Malthusian Prediction and its implications for resource scarcity and population growth.

Neo-Malthusian movement and its environmental awareness in the mid-20th century.

Boserup Theory as a counterargument to Malthus, emphasizing innovation in agriculture.

Concept of carrying capacity in human geography and its relevance to population studies.

Demographic tools like the demographic transition model and population pyramids.

Demographic Transition Model's stages and their relation to economic development.

Use of population pyramids to predict future growth and inform government resource allocation.

The role of economic security and women's empowerment in influencing birth rates.

Global efforts to reduce population sizes and their ethical implications.

The importance of understanding economic situations and individual lives in population studies.

Practical applications of population geography in policy-making and resource planning.

The dual nature of global population issues: overpopulation and aging crises.

Conclusion on the multifaceted approach needed to address ecological and social tensions related to population.

Transcripts

Back in episode 16 we got into two ways our Earth can be overpopulated: either when there’s

pressure in an area from more people in a place than the area can support, or when even

a small number of people apply pressure by overusing the resources in an area. And both

types of overpopulation sound like a big deal, especially when we think about how we’re

using our resources and the effects on our environment.

But if we check out global news over the last few decades, we’d see something that seems

counterintuitive: policies encouraging people to have more kids -- basically to increase the population!

In the early 2000s countries across Europe, and especially Eastern Europe, started to

notice an alarming trend -- fewer and fewer babies were being born.

So countries like Estonia began implementing new policies like benefits and payments to

encourage people to have more children.

So...it seems like we’re getting some mixed messages.

While we worry about there being too many people for the planet to support, we can also

worry about how fewer people in a given place may affect the economy, what may happen when

there are more elderly people who need care than there are healthcare workers, or even

be concerned about how many people are necessary to carry on a language, religion, or other

aspects of culture.

Population is more complex than just having too many or too few people. But when we understand

what drives the population of a place, whether we're talking about movement in and out of

a country or how many people are being born or dying, we can begin to understand future

patterns of urban and rural growth, cultural changes, and even political movements.

I’m Alizé Carrère, and this is Crash Course Geography.

INTRO

As population geographers, we focus on the spatial aspects of populations, or specific

groups of people. Like where people are located, why they’re located there, and how the location

and number of people impact a place.

Like in India we’re losing habitat in the region that is the genetic hearth, or birthplace,

of many varieties of banana. [Gasp of horror?]

So we might look at how the banana diffused as people travelled and then migrated along

the Silk Roads over many centuries. Then we’d look at when the habitat started

to decline and make note of who was using the land and how they were using it. Maybe

the density, or number of people per square kilometer, had changed, or the economic or

political practices, or both. As the land use changes, we’d look for how humans have

driven that change.

In fact, while worrying about natural resources and the impact of population feels like a

very 21st century-climate-crisis-thing, scholars have been talking about overpopulation for

a couple hundred years now.

Back in 1798 British economist Thomas Malthus first proposed what we now call the “Malthusian

Prediction.” Based on what he was seeing in Britain where agricultural production was

increasing linearly but the population seemed to be increasing exponentially, he concluded

that the world would soon be overrun by people who would use up all the available resources.

Malthus also argued that poverty causes population growth, and that adding more people to the

planet would doom us all. Today there are about 7 billion more people on the planet

than in 1798, so Malthus hasn’t been right yet. But while many of Malthus’s ideas were

disproven, the idea that poverty and population growth are linked stuck around.

In fact, between the 1940s and 1960s it resurfaced as part of growing environmental awareness.

This Neo-Malthusian movement pointed back to Malthus’s arguments, sounding an alarm

that there were too many people on the planet, and soon there wouldn’t be enough resources for everyone.

Malthusian ideas -- like that we should be wary of outstripping our resources and that

poverty is to blame -- led to global movements to encourage poor countries to achieve lower

birth rates, but not everyone agreed with the rather convenient – for wealthy countries

– argument that global environmental disaster was the fault of poor people.

Like Danish economist Ester Boserup who in 1965 published what’s sometimes called the

Boserup Theory or agricultural intensification.

Unlike Malthus, Boserup argued that people innovate, and in particular, the agriculture

sector only innovates when there’s pressure from having more mouths to feed. So poor people

weren’t going to use up all the resources like Malthus thought, and disaster wasn’t imminent.

What Malthus and Boserup both were getting at were ideas of carrying capacity, which

in human geography means how many people a given environment can support. Rather than

blame over or underpopulation, today when population sizes increase or decrease, a population

geographer will ask questions to figure out what’s happening in that place and how humans

are putting pressure on the environment.

We also use the tools of demography, or the study of population, to study how populations

change over space and time.

Demography often includes lots of statistics, like birth rate, which we’ve already mentioned

and death rate, or the mortality rate.

One tool demographers use is the demographic transition model which tries to approximate

how different birth and death rates lead to population change and how that ties to the

economy. In fact, it was originally created to model how population size might respond

to changes in the economy -- like within or between agricultural, manufacturing, or even

service-based economies.

Like any mathematical model, the Demographic Transition Model isn’t perfect because predicting

the future is hard! In particular the Demographic Transition Model was developed based on population

patterns in Western Europe and North America, and doesn’t always capture patterns in lower

income or non-white populations.

And while we read the stages from left to right, when using the model it’s important

to remember that economic development and population changes aren’t strictly sequential.

It’s possible for dramatic events like a war or an environmental disaster to create

conditions that cause populations and economies to skip back and forth between stages.

But we’ll still talk through them from left to right. In the Demographic Transition Model,

Stage 1 populations have high birth and high death rates which end up balancing each other

out more or less, so the population size is roughly small but steady. Before the industrial

revolution every country would’ve been considered a Stage 1 country, but today none exist.

A stage 2 population is one that is growing rapidly -- like the population of Western

Europe when Malthus was writing in the 18th century. Lots of people are being born, but

fewer and fewer people are dying.

Better healthcare and nutrition mean that people are living longer.

In 2020, there were only a few countries considered Stage 2, like Yemen. And to see what a high

birth rate and low death rate means for the overall population and trends over time, we

can use another demography tool called a population pyramid.

A population pyramid allows us to see historic impacts on population, and also predict future

growth and decline which helps governments allocate resources. From this pyramid, we

can see that in 2020, there was a steady decline in population after 10 years old, and a sharper

decline after 44 years old.

So this is a time as population geographers we can ask questions to see what’s happening

in Yemen. Turns out, there’s been conflict and war in the region going back to at least

2011, and that dip represents some of the people who have died in the conflicts. But

overall, a triangular pattern like this tends to indicate that the population will continue

to increase.

While there aren’t many countries in the stage 2 category, in 2020, a large number

of the world’s countries fit in Stage 3. This stage is where both death rates and eventually

birth rates start to decrease.

So our population growth rate starts to slow down. In fact, the world’s population growth

rate, or the rate of natural increase which only considers births and deaths and ignores

migration, was actually at its highest in 1963.

But in 2021, there’s still a lot of population momentum -- the birth rate might be getting

smaller, but bigger and bigger groups of people are getting old enough to have kids. So the

world population will still increase for a few more generations until the number of people

who aren’t old enough to have kids is smaller than the number who are.

Which brings us to the final stage we’ll discuss: stage 4 where countries have slow

to declining population growth. Across Eastern Europe there’s been an economic

stagnation after the wars and economic decline of the 1990s. And instead of leading to high

birth rates like might happen with a stage 1 or 2 country, the lack of economic opportunity

leads to voluntary migration -- kind of a double population whammy.

As people leave, there are fewer people to support the economy and take care of the aging population.

So stage 4 countries, like Japan or Germany, or even some stage 3 countries

like Estonia, are trying to create incentives for people to both stay in the country and

have more children.

What we can learn from demographic tools like the Demographic Transition Model or by studying

population pyramids is that the interplay between birth rates, death rates, and migration

requires a lot of context. But we can use this information to better understand the

relationship between people, their economic security, and their impact on the resources they use.

Globally there’ve been drastic efforts to reduce population sizes in the name of saving

the environment or resources -- like restrictions on the number of children a family can have,

or even forced sterilization programs. But by looking at more than just population size,

we can notice that most places where the birth rate comes down have a few things in common,

especially economic security and the role of women in society.

In societies where economic security is shaky, or where children rarely make it to adulthood,

or where there is no guaranteed retirement income, there’s often a high birth rate.

And countries have found that if they want to encourage a decrease in birth rate, one

of the fastest ways to help that happen is to empower women. Many different studies show

each year of education a woman has decreases the birth rate by 5 to 10%. And education

combined with access to good paying jobs is a major factor in the total fertility rate

or the average number of children a person is expected to give birth to over the course

of their reproductive years.

A population geographer uses all of these tools to assemble the population trends into

a picture that helps us understand the role they play in economic and environmental issues.

Societies can then use this picture for decision-making.

Like to understand the current population trends and predict the future trajectory to

better plan for workforce and resource needs, or to implement policies to educate women

and encourage them to participate in the workforce to try to decrease future population pressure.

So, is the world overpopulated or underpopulated? It seems to be both. It just depends on where

you’re located. The global population is increasing, but some countries like Estonia,

Japan or to some extent the US face an aging crisis -- a huge chunk of their population

is getting older without enough younger people to care for them.

Other high density places like Bangladesh, India, and South Korea have implemented a

wide range of programs, or have economies that give people economic options that make

it more possible to have smaller family sizes.

If we want to understand how to address some of our largest ecological and social tensions,

we need to understand more than just how populations grow. We have to understand what makes people

feel economically secure, but keep in mind that economic success uses up a lot of resources.

So rather than go “Ah! There are almost 8 billion people on the planet!” it’s

more helpful if we remember we’re talking about people with complex lives and dreams,

living in particular economic situations, not just numbers, and look at multiple factors

to understand the problems related to population size.

Thanks for watching this episode of Crash Course Geography which is filmed at the

Team Sandoval Pierce Studio and was made with the help of all these nice people. If you want

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