Why the World Economy Has No Need for Russia

Summary

わずか数年前、世界経済がロシアやその資源を必要としなくなるとは考えられなかった。しかし2024年には、歴史的な変革が起こり、この笑いは過去のものとなった。ウクライナ侵攻後、プーチンはロシアの資源を交渉材料に使おうとしたが、世界経済はロシアの影響を脱却。特にヨーロッパはロシアのガス依存から脱し、代替エネルギー源を確保。石油や農業、金属市場でも同様の変化が見られ、ロシアの経済力は著しく低下。西側諸国の結束がこの変化を可能にした。

Takeaways

• 😲 世界経済はもはやロシアの資源を必要としない。
• 📉 2022年のウクライナ侵攻後、プーチンの経済戦略は失敗に終わった。
• 💡 欧州はロシアのガス依存を減らし、代替供給源を確保。
• 🌍 温暖な冬と西側諸国の団結がエネルギー危機を乗り越える助けとなった。
• ⛽ 米国とノルウェーが欧州の主要ガス供給国に。
• 🛢️ ロシアの石油依存も削減、価格は戦前より低下。
• 🚢 液化天然ガス（LNG）の技術がエネルギー供給の多様化に寄与。
• 🥖 トルコの仲介でウクライナの穀物輸出再開。
• 🔧 ロシアの金属市場の支配力も低下、新しい供給源が登場。
• 💼 経済制裁と企業撤退でロシア経済は急速に悪化。

Q & A

質問1: 2024年の世界経済において、ロシアの資源はどのように位置づけられているのでしょうか？

答え1: 2024年には、ロシアの資源に対する世界経済の依存度は大幅に低下しており、ロシアの資源がなくても世界経済は成り立つようになっています。

質問2: 2021年時点で、ロシアのガスに最も依存していた国々はどこですか？

答え2: 2021年時点で、ドイツ、フィンランド、ギリシャ、オーストリアなどの国々がロシアのガスに50%以上依存していました。

質問3: プーチン大統領が2022年にウクライナ侵攻後に試みた経済的な戦略とは何ですか？

答え3: プーチン大統領は、ロシアの資源輸出を交渉の切り札として世界経済を人質に取ろうとしました。

質問4: 欧州がロシアのガス依存を減らすために取った主なステップは何ですか？

答え4: 欧州はガス消費の削減、液化天然ガス（LNG）の利用、再生可能エネルギーの増加を通じてロシアのガス依存を減らしました。

質問5: 2022年の暖冬が欧州に与えた影響は何ですか？

答え5: 2022年の暖冬によりエネルギー需要が低下し、欧州はガスの備蓄を増やすことができました。

質問6: 欧州がLNGに依存する理由は何ですか？

答え6: LNGはパイプラインを必要とせず、海上タンカーで輸送できるため、輸送の柔軟性が高いからです。

質問7: ロシアの石油市場における価格キャップの影響は何ですか？

答え7: 価格キャップによりロシアの石油収益は減少し、価格は低下しました。

質問8: OPEC+の生産調整が失敗に終わった理由は何ですか？

答え8: 西側諸国の連携により、OPEC+の未使用キャパシティが厳しく監視され、サウジアラビアがロシアを助けることが困難になったからです。

質問9: ロシアの金属市場における支配力が低下した理由は何ですか？

答え9: 他の国々が新しい鉱業プロジェクトを立ち上げ、ロシアの金属供給を代替する動きが進んだからです。

質問10: ロシアの「東方シフト」戦略の課題は何ですか？

答え10: ロシアのパイプラインインフラが主にヨーロッパ向けであり、アジア向けの新しいパイプライン建設には多大な時間とコストがかかるためです。

Outlines

00:00

😀 世界経済におけるロシアの資源依存からの脱却

数年前には信じられなかったが、2024年には世界経済はもはやロシアとその資源を必要としない状況に変わった。特に2022年のウクライナ侵攻以降、ロシアの経済的戦略は失敗に終わった。西側諸国の連帯と異常に暖かい2022年の冬がこの変化を支えた。

05:00

🌍 ロシア産ガスからの脱却戦略

ヨーロッパはロシア産ガスへの依存を減らすために様々な手段を講じた。ガスの削減を求め、代替ガス供給源を確保し、再生可能エネルギーを増やしたことで、ロシアからのガス依存は50%から9%に減少した。

10:03

💡 LNGによるガス供給の多様化

液化天然ガス（LNG）はパイプラインを必要とせず、タンカーで運ぶことができる。アメリカやノルウェーが主要な供給国となり、ヨーロッパのガス供給を支えた。中国の国内供給への転換も市場の変化に寄与した。

15:06

🛢️ ロシア産石油の代替供給

ロシアの石油輸出に対する制裁や価格キャップにより、アメリカやカナダ、ブラジルが供給を増やした。OPEC+の産油調整も西側諸国の対応により失敗。ロシアの石油市場は大きな損失を被り、国内経済にも影響が及んでいる。

20:07

🍞 食料と金属市場への影響

トルコがウクライナの穀物輸出を再開させたことで、ロシアの食料戦略は失敗。金属市場でも代替供給源が確保され、アメリカは戦略的備蓄を増やし、南米やアフリカでの新しい鉱業プロジェクトが進行中。

📉 ロシア経済の崩壊

西側の制裁と共同努力により、ロシア経済は急速に悪化。制裁が奏功し、ロシアの経済報告も不完全で、データが隠蔽されている。政府の予算赤字も拡大し、長期的にはロシアの経済的影響力は失われる見込み。

🌏 東へのシフト戦略の限界

プーチンはアジア市場へのシフトを提唱しているが、ガスと石油の輸出インフラの不足や低価格の売却により、経済的には無意味。ロシアの石油市場は急速に縮小しており、西側技術に依存する製造業も苦境に立たされている。

💰 ロシアの経済的な余裕は本当か？

プーチンはロシアの財政的な余裕を主張しているが、3000億ドルの外貨準備は凍結されており、残りの準備金も急速に減少している。国内の財政赤字が拡大し、政府の財政政策は長期的には持続不可能。

🏭 ロシア産業の崩壊

国際的なサプライチェーンの切断により、ロシアの製造業はインフレに苦しみ、既存機械の部品を再利用する事態に陥っている。航空産業も同様に崩壊の危機にあり、ロシア経済全体が下り坂にある。

🔗 制裁と西側の対策

西側の制裁と企業の撤退がロシア経済に大きな打撃を与えた。制裁が不完全であるため、さらなる金融制裁が検討されている。ロシア経済は内部から崩壊しつつあり、さらなる制裁がその崩壊を加速させる可能性が高い。

Keywords

💡世界経済

世界経済は、グローバルな経済活動を指し、ビデオの主なテーマです。2024年にロシアとその資源が必要なくなるという歴史的な転換が述べられており、この変化がいかに起こったかが詳細に説明されています。

💡ロシアの資源

ロシアの資源には天然ガス、石油、金属、農産物が含まれ、これらは世界経済にとって重要な輸出品でした。ビデオでは、これらの資源に依存していた国々がどのように代替資源を見つけ、ロシアの経済的影響力を低下させたかが説明されています。

💡エネルギー戦争

エネルギー戦争とは、ロシアがウクライナ侵攻後にエネルギー供給を武器として使用したことを指します。ビデオでは、欧州がロシアのガス供給停止に対抗するために取った対策が詳細に述べられています。

💡代替エネルギー源

代替エネルギー源は、ロシアのエネルギー供給に依存しないために欧州が見つけた新しいエネルギー供給源です。例として、液化天然ガス（LNG）や再生可能エネルギーの増加が挙げられます。

💡液化天然ガス（LNG）

LNGは、天然ガスを液体に変換して輸送する技術です。パイプラインを必要とせず、海上輸送が可能であり、ビデオでは欧州がロシアのガスをLNGで置き換えた経緯が説明されています。

💡石油価格上限

石油価格上限は、G7がロシアの石油収入を制限するために導入した措置です。これに対抗してロシアが取った行動と、それが世界の石油市場に与えた影響がビデオで解説されています。

💡農産物供給

農産物供給は、ロシアがウクライナの農業インフラを攻撃し、食料供給を武器として使用した試みを指します。ビデオでは、トルコが仲介してウクライナの港を再開させたことが述べられています。

💡戦略的備蓄

戦略的備蓄は、重要な資源の供給途絶を防ぐために各国が行う備蓄活動です。ビデオでは、米国がニッケルやチタンなどの金属の備蓄を再開したことが述べられています。

💡国家財政

国家財政は、ロシアが戦争と制裁の影響で直面している経済問題を指します。ビデオでは、ロシアの財政赤字や国家富裕基金の使用についての情報が提供されています。

💡制裁

制裁は、国際社会がロシアに対して行っている経済的措置を指します。ビデオでは、これらの制裁がロシア経済に与えた影響と、それに対するロシアの対応が詳述されています。

Highlights

2024年、歴史的なグローバルシフトが起こり、ロシアとその資源が世界経済にとって不可欠ではなくなった。

2021年には、ロシアのガスの83%がヨーロッパに輸出されていた。

プーチン大統領は、2022年のウクライナ侵攻後、ロシアの資源を交渉の切り札として使用するつもりだった。

西側諸国の連帯と強さが、プーチンのエネルギー戦略を打ち破る重要な要因となった。

2022年の異常に暖かい冬が、エネルギー需要を減少させ、西側の対応を助けた。

ヨーロッパは、ロシアのガス依存を9%にまで減少させた。

液化天然ガス（LNG）が、ロシアのガスを置き換える主要な方法の一つとなった。

アメリカはヨーロッパに推定550億立方メートルのLNGを供給した。

ノルウェーがロシアに代わってEUの最大のパイプラインガス供給国となった。

ロシアの石油はもはや世界経済にとって不可欠ではなくなった。

アメリカ、カナダ、ブラジル、ベネズエラが共同で400万バレルの石油を生産した。

サウジアラビアとロシアがOPEC+で協力して石油生産を削減しようとしたが、西側諸国の圧力で阻止された。

トルコが仲介した協定により、ウクライナの穀物輸出が再開された。

ロシアの金属供給も代替可能であり、新たな鉱山プロジェクトが進行中。

ロシア経済は制裁と国際的な努力により急速に悪化している。

Transcripts

If, just a few short years ago, anyone  suggested the world economy would no  

longer need Russia and its resources, they  would probably be ridiculed. Yet, in 2024,  

a historic global shift has taken place, rendering  this laughter nothing but a whisper of the past. 

But let’s be honest – few  people would have predicted  

such a massive change in such a short time. After all, it was only in 2021 when a staggering  

83% of Russian gas was being exported to Europe.  Dozens of countries were at least 50% dependent on  

this gas, including Germany, Finland, Greece, and  Austria. At the same time, countries like Japan  

and China were among Russia’s top consumers  of liquefied natural gas (LNG). That’s why  

Vladimir Putin, the President of Russia, believed  that he could hold the global economy hostage  

following the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, using  Russian commodity exports as a bargaining chip. 

But it seems like Putin’s economic gambits  can be added to the increasingly long list  

of miscalculations the Russian president has  made since invading Ukraine, right up there  

with underestimating the people of Ukraine. Though the world economy is certainly not  

at its peak, it hasn’t succumbed to Putin’s  stranglehold, leading to an unexpected yet obvious  

conclusion – it no longer needs Russia. How is this possible? 

Given how dependent the global supply  chains were on Russian products,  

how did the West manage to beat Putin on this  second war front he established – the energy war? 

Well, it turns out the joint  strength and solidarity of  

the West was another aspect Putin miscalculated. Of course, the efforts to find alternative energy  

sourcing and establish collaborative initiatives  were aided by an unseasonably warm 2022 winter,  

which lowered the overall demand for energy in  the following months and years. It seems like  

Mother Nature is an unwitting ally in the West’s  response to Putin’s miscalculated energy strategy. 

Let’s see what this response  has entailed in more detail. 

To do this, we must first define the areas  where the world economy has been the most  

dependent on Russia’s exports. Sure, gas is  undoubtedly No. 1, but we shouldn’t minimize  

the critical role Russian oil, metal, and  agriculture have played in global trade. 

Still, No. 1 is No. 1, so let’s start  by examining how the West found a way to  

mitigate the world’s reliance on Russian gas. As already mentioned, this reliance was quite  

pervasive, with Europe relying on Russia for  almost 50% of its total gas supply. So, it’s  

no wonder Russia exported roughly 200 billion  cubic meters of natural gas annually, accounting  

for half of the country’s federal revenue. These figures gave Putin the confidence to  

cut off gas supplies to Europe indefinitely in  September 2022. Though the Kremlin claimed this  

move was a response to the West’s punitive  economic sanctions, a more sinister agenda  

soon became apparent. Putin’s goal was  for Europeans to freeze in cold homes,  

forcing them to turn on their leaders and  demand them to cease support for Ukraine. 

But that’s far from what actually happened. Though Europe was presented with a terrible  

choice – give in to Putin’s whims or let people  freeze to death, it came up with a third option  

rather quickly. This option was to secure  alternative gas supplies for its energy needs. 

However, this option is only one of three  steps the European Commission made to weaken  

the grip Russia had on its economy. Step 1? Demanding gas reduction. 

This step was initiated long before  Russia cut off the gas supplies,  

as the country was already seen as an  unreliable supplier. With this move,  

Europe was able to create a joint  storage and fill it as much as 82%. 

Step 2 is where the alternative gas sources come  into play. The goal was clear – diversify away  

from Russian fossil fuels. Besides natural  gas, this also included finding alternative  

sources of oil and coal, as we’ll discuss later. But what did it take to replace Russian gas? 

There are two primary answers to this question –  one, turning to liquefied natural gas, and two,  

seeking more reliable suppliers for  piped gas. Europe managed to do both,  

with the U.S. supplying an estimated 55 billion  cubic meters of liquified natural gas (LNG) to  

Europe and Norway overtaking Russia as the  European Union’s biggest piped gas supplier. 

Paired with increases in supply from  renewable sources–which was Step 3  

proposed by the European Commission–Europe has  managed to reduce its dependence on Russian  

gas to an impressive 9%. This alone marked a  pivotal stride toward energy autonomy, forging  

a new chapter in the history of the world economy. As already mentioned, a warm winter also came to  

Europe’s rescue. Thanks to this, Europe managed  to accomplish two things – avoid the worst-case  

scenario of letting its residents freeze  and accumulate gas in its storage tanks. 

For instance, German storage tanks were  only 54% full at the beginning of 2022  

but reached a record high of 91% in 2023. With many countries following in Germany’s  

footsteps, it’s clear that Europe has assured  sufficient energy supply to sustain itself  

while making alternative energy sources fully  operational. The ultimate goal is to completely  

switch to LNG by raising its export capacity to  over 200 billion cubic meters. If you remember,  

200 billion cubic meters of natural  gas is how much Russia trades yearly,  

meaning this move could replace the country’s  exports—and eliminate Russia’s seat at the world  

economy table— once and for all. But why LNG, and where is all  

this LNG coming from? Let’s start with the why. 

Unlike piped gas, LNG doesn’t require pipelines  for transport. Instead, gas is transformed into  

liquid using a process called liquefaction,  transported on ocean tankers, and then  

converted back to gas at its final destination. This technology is still relatively new, with even  

the U.S., the world’s largest LNG exporter, using  it in full effect for the first time in 2016. 

As far as the quantities go, global LNG markets  are growing rapidly to accommodate the new demand.  

However, it should be noted that a major factor in  providing enough LNG for Europe is that China, the  

world’s largest LNG importer, is gradually turning  to domestic sources instead of global ones. Pair  

this with the lower overall demand for LNG due  to existing supplies, and you’ll understand  

why the world economy is expected to make a  full recovery after such a tumultuous period. 

OK, so we’ve covered the gas  issue. But what about oil? 

Russia is one of the world’s largest oil  exporters, delivering as many as 9 million  

barrels per day at its peak. In 2021, this figure  was about 7.9 million per day, which is still  

a major contribution to the global oil market. Shortly after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, oil  

prices skyrocketed by almost 20% as the U.S. and  Europe considered a ban on the country’s imports.  

Eventually, the G7 Summit opted to implement oil  price caps in an effort to limit Russia’s earnings  

from one of its most profitable commodities. Putin responded by announcing a ban on crude  

oil sales to countries participating in these  price caps, starting on February 1, 2023. Now,  

you might think this caused the oil prices to  spike once again. At least Putin was certainly  

counting on it. But again, the complete  opposite happened – the prices went down. 

This made one thing abundantly  clear – the world no longer  

needs Russian oil. But how is this possible? Well, it’s pretty much the same as with gas.  

Alternative sources keep popping out, producing  enough oil to replace any “lost” Russian oil  

seamlessly. In the second half of 2022 alone,  countries like the U.S., Canada, Brazil, and  

Venezuela truly stepped up, producing 4 million  barrels a day in total. Even better, the price of  

this oil is even lower than before the war, making  Putin’s attempt to influence oil prices futile. 

Even Putin seemingly got the message, as Russian  Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak announced  

that the government was ready to cut daily oil  output by 700,000 barrels in December 2022. 

However, it’s not all good  news in this department. 

Though Saudi Arabia, the largest oil producer  in the world, was supposed to be a U.S. ally,  

the country has seemingly partnered with Russia to  manipulate the price of oil. These two countries  

have acted together in the Organization  of Petroleum Exporting Countries—Plus  

(OPEC+) to lower their oil production, thus  causing a shortage in the global market. 

But this devious game quickly  came to a screeching halt. 

The West has once again united and subjected  OPEC+’s major unused capacity to intense scrutiny,  

preventing Saudi Arabia from coming  to Russia’s rescue time after time. 

Saudi Arabia isn’t the only ally that has  seemingly turned its back on Russia. So  

did Turkey, essentially destroying another Putin’s  gambit to control the world economy – agriculture. 

Putin tried to weaponize food supplies—or grain,  to be precise—by holding Ukrainian supplies  

hostage and even shelling the agricultural  infrastructure in the country. However,  

Turkey managed to broker a deal, which resulted  in opening Ukrainian ports back up following  

a lengthy blockade. Recep Tayyip Erdoğan,  Turkey’s president, achieved this by promising  

to allow Russia to export more food supplies and  commodities through the Black Sea grain corridor. 

This just leaves us with metal. Russia has historically dominated  

several metal markets, including nickel, titanium,  and palladium. Fearing that Putin would try to  

weaponize metal, too, many buyers started to look  for alternative sources of these valuable metals. 

The U.S., for instance, opted to restore its  dormant strategic reserves of key metals,  

aiming to mitigate potential disruptions in  the supply chain. Throw new mining projects  

in South America and Africa into the mix,  and it becomes clear that even the Russian  

metal supply can be replaced permanently in a  few years. Major moves have already been made  

in the cobalt and nickel markets, which should  add sufficient supply to offset any potential  

disruption in the following year or two. So, where does all this leave Russia? 

With zero remaining leverage in the world  economy, it appears. All these powerful  

moves by the Western nations taught Putin a  valuable lesson – it’s much easier for buyers  

to replace an unreliable supplier than  it is for suppliers to reach new markets. 

Even if Russia manages to secure new buyers for  its gas, the diminished demand and altered market  

dynamics mean that these potential customers  are unlikely to match the lucrative deals that  

European countries once provided. This translates  to a substantial financial blow for Russia. 

Things look pretty much the  same in the oil department. 

Though Russia has managed to secure  a mighty pool of buyers in the east,  

led by China and India, the country’s flagship  oil is now selling at half the global price. Why? 

Russia’s oil buyers might not participate  in the G7 oil price caps explicitly,  

but they sure have used these caps to their  advantage. For instance, India is buying more  

than 30 times more Russian oil than the previous  year, but it’s doing so with discounts of up to  

50%. Since Russia doesn’t really have a choice  in the matter, it’s hardly making any profit. 

With this in mind, it shouldn’t be surprising  that the Kremlin’s economic reports have become  

progressively more selective. Pre-war, all  the foreign trade data was updated monthly,  

including the following: Oil and gas production levels 

Commodity export quantities Capital inflows and outflows 

Financial reports from prominent companies Foreign direct investment data 

Now, these reports are either  withheld or published incompletely,  

with all the unfavorable metrics omitted. This  has spread throughout the Russian government,  

with even the country’s Federal Agency for Air  Transport, Rosaviatsiya, no longer publishing  

data on airport passenger volumes. These desperate moves can only mean one  

thing – all the international sanctions and joint  efforts have paid off, and the Russian economy is  

deteriorating. And it’s deteriorating quickly. So, is that it? Has Russia’s economic  

leverage irreversibly crumbled? If you ask Putin, the answer will be a resounding  

no. Never one to admit defeat, Russia’s president  keeps pedaling the same old talking points,  

hoping to maintain a façade of resilience. But let’s humor Putin for a second. 

Let’s examine his talking points one by  one to determine whether they indicate that  

Russia won’t let go of its grasp on global  influence any time soon or they are nothing  

more than desperate myths by a desperate man. First up – one of Putin’s favorite talking points,  

the so-called “Pivot to the East.” Essentially, Putin is claiming that  

Russia can prosper by redirecting its gas  exports to Asia instead of the Western  

nations. But the truth is this simply isn’t  feasible, at least for a few more years. 

The only gas Russia can make a significant profit  on is piped gas, as liquefied natural gas makes  

less than 10% of the country’s total gas capacity.  And as its name suggests, piped gas needs pipes  

to be transported. Russia does have a powerful  system of fixed pipelines for carrying gas. But  

most of these pipelines flow toward Europe and  through Ukraine, which isn’t exactly convenient  

for the whole “Pivot to the East” shtick. To make matters worse, these pipelines can’t  

be connected to a separate pipeline network  linking Eastern Siberia to Asia. This means  

that the only way for Russia to export piped  gas to the east is to construct new pipelines. 

It goes without saying that this is an extremely  time-consuming endeavor that poses significant  

financial and logistical challenges for any  country, let alone one at war. Although some  

projects have already been initiated, it will  take years for them to become operational. That  

is if Russia doesn’t go bankrupt before. Let’s say Russia manages to construct an  

East-bound pipeline system for argument’s sake.  Even then, it’s improbable the country will be  

able to export enough gas to match its pre-war  European exports. Just compare the 170 billion  

cubic meters of natural gas sent to Europe to  the measly 16.5 billion sent to China, Russia’s  

biggest ally in Asia, and you’ll get the picture. This gap, or should we say chasm, essentially  

makes any project related to Russia-Asia  pipelines a waste of time and money. Even  

if he decides to proceed with this foolish  project, Russia will be long forgotten in the  

world economy by the time the last pipe is laid. However, this doesn’t stop Putin from continuing  

to praise Asia as some promised land. In  his words, the continent is also the perfect  

market for increased oil sales. And as already  mentioned, he is right to some extent. Russia is,  

in fact, selling more oil to Asia. But at  what cost? And we mean this quite literally. 

Russian oil has historically been sold  at premium prices, with discounts never  

surpassing $5 per barrel. Well, currently, these  discounts go up to $35 per barrel as buyers  

like China and India drive a hard bargain.  Given that Russia has nowhere else to turn,  

these unprecedented discounts have become a  regular occurrence in the Russian oil market. 

But that’s not the only problem in Putin’s  “Pivot to the East” plan for oil sales. 

Like gas, oil has historically been sent  to Asia in much smaller quantities than  

to Europe. Given that it takes approximately 35  days for Russian oil tankers to reach East Asia,  

this shouldn’t come as a surprise, especially  considering that the same tankers can reach  

Europe in as little as two days. Given the high cost of transport and  

low selling prices, it’s easy to conclude that  Russia is barely breaking even on oil sales,  

let alone making a significant profit. That’s not  to mention the high cost of oil production that  

heavily relies on Western technology. Whichever  way you look at it, it’s a lose-lose scenario for  

Russia but a huge win for countries hoping to  do away with Russia on the world economy stage. 

Again, unsurprisingly, Putin doesn’t acknowledge  this in any way. Instead, all that comes from  

Russia are talks of the country’s steady finances,  with hundreds of billions of dollars in rainy-day  

funds. This way, Putin is sending a clear message  – even without gas and oil sales, the Kremlin’s  

finances won’t be strained anytime soon, allowing  Putin to continue destabilizing the world economy. 

But is this the truth? Does  Putin have enough money to keep  

Russia forcibly entrenched in global affairs? Again, there’s some truth to these statements,  

but as always, they have been  twisted to suit Putin’s agenda. So,  

yes, Russia does have substantial rainy day  funds, but no, they aren’t a cure-all. Why? 

For starters, at least $300 billion in  foreign exchange reserves is frozen,  

thanks to a joint endeavor by allies like  the U.S. and Japan. Not only are the funds  

out of reach for Putin and Russia, but there  have also been some talks of seizing these  

assets to finance the reconstruction of Ukraine. The rest of Russia’s foreign exchange reserves are  

rapidly dwindling, losing dozens of billions  of dollars since the onset of the conflict in  

Ukraine. The theory that Russia is gradually  running out of money is also supported by the  

fact that the country has accumulated a massive  budget deficit in 2022. To understand just how  

massive this deficit is, you should know that  the Russian Finance Minister, Anton Siluanov,  

suggested using as much as one-third of  the country’s National Wealth Fund to pay  

for it. This fund, aka Russia’s sovereign wealth  fund, was worth almost $150 billion at the time. 

Interestingly, despite the suggestions  of his Finance Minister, Putin actually  

claims that Russia is running a budget surplus  thanks to a series of dramatic fiscal projects  

and high energy prices. The dramatic projects  in question include sweeping asset seizures,  

which are essentially turning Russia into a  kleptocracy. While this might yield positive  

short-term results, it’s setting the Russian  economy on the road to ruin in the long run.  

And with it, Russia’s hopes of ever reclaiming  its spot at the top of the world economy. 

This, of course, means that the budget surplus  is another myth propagated by the Kremlin. Any  

objective financial expert can see that  Putin’s reckless spending is unsustainable  

and will inevitably cause financial turmoil  for the country. That is if it hasn’t already. 

This financial turmoil has expanded to  almost every aspect of the Russian economy. 

The sectors heavily relying on international  supply chains have it the worst, with some of them  

being hit by inflation of up to 60%. In addition,  the manufacturers in these sectors have to  

make do with what they can find in Russia, leading  them to cannibalize and recycle parts of existing  

machines. This has gone so far that some reports  suggest that the Russian military equipment  

found on the ground in Ukraine is filled with  semiconductors from refrigerators and dishwashers. 

Even aircraft manufacturers resort to similar  practices despite cannibalized aircraft being  

inherently unsafe for operation. With  this in mind, it shouldn’t be surprising  

that the number of aircraft failures  in Russia increased by 320% in 2023. 

Domestic spending isn’t any better, despite the  Kremlin labeling it as “healthy.” Unfortunately  

for Putin and Russia, there’s nothing healthy  about consumer spending and retail sales  

decreasing by 20% year-over-year. But leave it to  Putin to find a way to spin almost any narrative. 

Even the exit of all the major Western companies  from Russia has been presented as a winning  

scenario for the country and its loyal elite.  This has to do with Putin’s stringent exit  

conditions and taxes, which caused these  companies to declare over $100 billion  

in losses since the start of the war in Ukraine. But as much as Putin tries to paint a rosy  

picture, the truth is that major business pulling  out of Russia can only be a bad thing. Even if the  

remaining domestic companies have a short-term  boost in sales and revenue, they have no future  

without Western technology, as proven by the  dramatic demise of the Russian aircraft industry. 

By now, it’s apparent that a downward  spiral is all you can see, regardless  

of which part of the Russian economy  you scrutinize. But if you ask Putin,  

any dips resulting from international  sanctions and businesses retreating  

from Russia are now over, allowing  the country to recover steadily. 

Of course, this also couldn’t  be further from the truth. 

Even with all the measures against Russia, the  country continues to draw enough money to obscure  

its structural economic weaknesses and fund  Putin’s extravagant endeavors. This means that  

the sanctions against Russia are incomplete. The  only way to ensure Russia can’t bounce back from  

the current economic challenges is to introduce  new financial and energy sanctions, which are  

already widely discussed among Ukraine’s allies. Given that Russia is quite literally crumbling  

from the inside, these will only  serve as the final nail in its coffin. 

But as well as the plan to freeze out Russia  from global affairs is going, it’s important to  

note that this fight has been nothing short of  a Herculean endeavor. While the Western allies  

might score victory after victory, each comes  at a cost. Regardless of how well the world  

economy bounces back, it’s clear that the war in  Ukraine has irreversibly impacted numerous lives,  

altered trade flows, and transformed supply  chains. Let’s discuss this impact in more detail. 

There was lots of talk about alternative gas  sources in this video. But there’s one point  

we’re yet to mention – the cost of those sources. There’s no doubt about it – European businesses  

and individuals have experienced significantly  higher gas prices since the onset of the  

Ukrainian conflict. These prices are arguably  the only reason some experts believe a return  

to Russia’s supplies might be inevitable. But this won’t happen if Europe has any say. 

As soon as the gas prices spiked, the  European governments sprang into action,  

introducing various fiscal subsidies and  transfer payments to ease this significant  

economic pressure on consumers. In other words, we find ourselves  

in a familiar situation – Russia tries to disrupt  the world economy, but the Western allies swiftly  

counteract. Plus, looking into how individual  countries and industries have responded over time  

reveals that Russia’s disruption is significantly  less catastrophic than initially feared. 

Sure, the road to recovery might be long  and bumpy, and the world economy might limp  

along it instead of sprinting, but we can safely  conclude that Russia will soon have no part in it. 

What do you think? Do you agree that Russia’s  energy and commodities have been weakened  

beyond repair? Or do you believe Putin is  still in a position to disturb the global  

economy and its recovery? Share your  opinions in the comments section below.