Kuliah System Dynamics Bagian2

Summary

This video lecture, conducted in Indonesian, explores the topic of system dynamics with a focus on population growth, migration, and urban development. Using a simulation model in Vensim, the lecturer demonstrates how population changes in a fictional city, Kotabaru, influenced by factors such as net growth, migration, and the city's carrying capacity. Key concepts like migration patterns, urban density, and non-linear effects of population increase on migration are discussed. The lecture also highlights how the population interacts with city space and how these dynamics can be modeled for real-world applications in urban planning.

Takeaways

• 😀 The lecture introduces a System Dynamics course, aimed at a diverse group of students, ranging from undergraduates to postgraduates.
• 😀 The professor emphasizes that the quality of the content presented in the lecture will match that of top universities in Indonesia.
• 😀 The course is structured around a 17-minute lecture, though its length can vary depending on the content, sometimes extending to 70 minutes.
• 😀 The lecture focuses on population dynamics, specifically the population growth in a fictional city called Kotabaru.
• 😀 Population growth in Kotabaru is influenced by net growth (births minus deaths), migration (both in and out), and the available land area.
• 😀 The lecture introduces a simple simulation model using the software Vensim to simulate population dynamics over time, including factors such as migration and population growth.
• 😀 The simulation model uses various parameters, such as initial population, migration rates, and net growth rates, to model changes in the city's population.
• 😀 The professor discusses the impact of population density on migration patterns, explaining that as population density increases, the attraction for migration decreases.
• 😀 The city’s land area and population density are interrelated, with a larger area leading to lower population density and vice versa.
• 😀 A non-linear relationship is highlighted between population density and migration; as the city approaches its maximum population capacity, migration rates decline due to factors like limited resources and high land prices.

Q & A

What is the main topic of the video script?

The main topic of the video script is an introduction to system dynamics, focusing on population growth in a city called Kotabaru. The video explains the use of system dynamics to simulate population changes due to factors like net growth, migration, and spatial limits.

What is the significance of the term 'mahasiswa es campur' used in the script?

'Mahasiswa es campur' refers to a mixed group of students, including those at different academic levels such as undergraduate (S1), graduate (S2), and doctoral (S3). It reflects the diversity of the audience attending the lecture.

What role does the concept of migration play in the population model presented?

Migration plays a crucial role in determining population changes in Kotabaru. The script highlights how migration can increase or decrease the population based on factors like population density and the city's attractiveness. Migration is affected by both internal growth and the movement of people in and out of the city.

What is the relationship between population density and migration in the model?

As population density increases in Kotabaru, migration into the city decreases. High population density can reduce the city's appeal due to limitations like resource scarcity and higher land prices, leading to a lower migration rate.

How does the model reflect the relationship between city area and population density?

The model indicates that as the area of Kotabaru increases, the population density decreases. A larger city allows for more people to spread out, resulting in lower density. Conversely, a smaller city with a fixed area will have a higher population density.

What are the variables used in the simulation to model Kotabaru's population dynamics?

The simulation uses several variables, including population size (as a stock variable), migration in and out (flows), and net population growth (births minus deaths). It also considers the area's size and population density, with additional variables for the effects of density on migration rates.

What is the purpose of the 'effect of population density on migration' variable?

The 'effect of population density on migration' variable adjusts the migration rate based on how crowded Kotabaru becomes. This non-linear relationship means that as the city approaches its capacity, migration becomes less likely, reflecting real-world behaviors as cities reach overcrowding.

How is the non-linearity in the migration model represented?

The non-linearity is represented by using a telegraphic function that captures the gradual decrease in migration as population density increases. Initially, migration is high when the population is low, but as the city approaches its maximum population capacity, migration sharply declines.

What happens in the simulation when Kotabaru's population reaches its maximum carrying capacity?

Once Kotabaru's population reaches its maximum carrying capacity, migration stops. This reflects the real-world scenario where, as cities become overpopulated, they become less attractive due to factors like overcrowding and limited resources, causing people to stop moving there.

What was the final question posed to the audience, and what does it encourage students to consider?

The final question posed to the audience is whether population density will influence the migration out of Kotabaru. This encourages students to think about how factors like overcrowding might lead to people leaving the city, a concept that wasn't directly covered in the simulation but is an important aspect of population dynamics.