Before You Decide: 3 Steps To Better Decision Making | Matthew Confer | TEDxOakLawn

Summary

This inspiring transcript details a Stanford University challenge where students turned a $5 seed fund into an opportunity by selling presentation rights to a company. It outlines three key steps for effective decision-making: challenging constraints, embracing a pre-mortem to anticipate failure, and checking the basics to avoid overlooking details. The narrative is reinforced with examples including the 'Cobra effect' and the Mars Climate Orbiter mishap, culminating in Captain Sullenberger's heroic decision-making during the 'Miracle on the Hudson'.

Takeaways

• 💡 The winning team at Stanford didn't use the $5 seed money, instead they sold the presentation rights to a company, highlighting the importance of thinking outside the box and challenging the constraints of a problem.
• 🤔 The decision-making process should start by questioning the constraints that are presented, as they can limit innovative thinking.
• 🌟 The speaker runs a leadership development company that uses team-based competitive business simulations to prepare professionals for real-world decisions.
• 🔄 Post-mortem analysis is common, but the speaker suggests a 'pre-mortem' approach to consider potential failures before making a decision.
• 🐍 The 'Cobra effect' in India is an example of how not considering the potential negative outcomes of a decision can lead to disastrous results.
• 🚀 The Mars Climate Orbiter disaster was due to a basic oversight in unit measurements, emphasizing the importance of checking the fundamentals in decision-making.
• 🛫 Captain Sullenberger's response to the 'Miracle on the Hudson' is an example of challenging constraints, contemplating failure, and checking the basics in high-stakes decision-making.
• 🧘‍♂️ Before making a decision, it's crucial to balance envisioning success with contemplating potential failure to better formulate a course of action.
• 🔍 A pre-mortem involves thinking through how a decision could fail before it's implemented, which can help mitigate risks and prevent costly mistakes.
• 📏 Checking the basics is often overlooked but is vital in ensuring that simple tasks and details do not become the downfall of a well-thought-out decision.
• 🛑 The speaker concludes with the three steps to effective decision-making: challenge constraints, embrace a pre-mortem, and check the basics.

Q & A

What was the challenge presented to the students at Stanford University in the entrepreneurship class?

The students were given an envelope with five dollars of seed funding and tasked with turning the five dollars into the most money possible in a short timeframe.

What did the winning team at Stanford do with the five dollars that was different from the other teams?

The winning team did not use the five dollars. Instead, they sold the rights to their presentation to a local company for a fee, using the opportunity of the presentation to attract potential recruits.

What is the importance of challenging constraints in the decision-making process as illustrated by the Stanford story?

Challenging constraints allows individuals to think beyond the limitations and come up with innovative ideas that might not have been considered otherwise.

What is a 'pre-mortem' and how does it relate to decision-making?

A pre-mortem is a forward-looking analysis where one envisions potential failures before making a decision. It helps to identify and mitigate risks that could lead to unsuccessful outcomes.

What is the 'Cobra effect' and what does it teach us about decision-making?

The 'Cobra effect' refers to a situation where a solution to a problem makes the problem worse. It teaches us the importance of considering the potential negative consequences of a decision before implementing it.

What is the significance of the NASA Mars climate orbiter spacecraft story in the context of decision-making?

The story highlights the importance of checking the basics and ensuring that all teams are aligned on the same standards and units of measurement to avoid catastrophic mistakes.

What is the third step in effective decision-making as suggested by the speaker?

The third step is to check the basics, ensuring that small details and simple tasks are not overlooked, which can often be the downfall of even the most complex and well-thought-out plans.

What is the story of 'Sully' Sullenberger and how does it relate to the three steps of effective decision-making?

Sully Sullenberger's story of landing a plane in the Hudson River after both engines failed illustrates the three steps: challenging constraints by considering unconventional solutions, embracing a pre-mortem by contemplating different scenarios of success and failure, and checking the basics by ensuring all critical details were confirmed before and after the landing.

How did the speaker's company, Inability, contribute to the understanding of decision-making?

Inability, a leadership development company, has facilitated team-based competitive business simulations for over 20,000 professionals in 30 countries, providing real-world insights into exceptional decision-making.

What is the relevance of the transcript's content to everyday decision-making, regardless of the scale of the decision?

The principles of challenging constraints, embracing a pre-mortem, and checking the basics are applicable to all decisions, from personal choices to professional and critical decisions, helping to improve the decision-making process and outcomes.

What can we learn from the transcript about the common pitfalls in decision-making?

The transcript suggests that common pitfalls include accepting constraints without question, focusing too much on success without considering failure, and overlooking the basics which can lead to significant errors.

Outlines

00:00

💼 Innovative Entrepreneurship Challenge

The Stanford University entrepreneurship class challenged students to maximize profit from a $5 seed fund. The winning team ingeniously sold the presentation rights to a local company, aiming to recruit the students post-graduation, without using the $5. This highlights the importance of challenging constraints to foster innovation and excel in decision-making. The speaker, running a leadership development company, emphasizes the value of strategic simulations in preparing professionals for real-world challenges and introduces three steps to effective decision-making.

05:01

🐍 The Cobra Effect: A Pre-Mortem Approach

The British government's attempt to control the cobra population in colonial India by offering a bounty led to an increase in cobra breeding for profit. When the program ended, breeders released the snakes, worsening the problem, illustrating the 'Cobra effect.' This serves as a lesson in the importance of a pre-mortem approach, where potential failures are considered before making decisions. The speaker uses this example to introduce the second step in effective decision-making: embracing a pre-mortem to anticipate and mitigate potential pitfalls.

10:05

🚀 Mars Orbiter Mishap: The Importance of Basics

The Mars Climate Orbiter mission's failure due to a unit of measurement mix-up between teams underscores the necessity of checking the basics in decision-making. Despite the high stakes and expertise involved, a simple oversight led to the spacecraft's destruction. This incident is used to introduce the third step: before deciding, ensure that fundamental details are correct to avoid letting minor details derail significant decisions.

🛫 Captain Sullenberger's Heroic Decision-Making

Captain Sullenberger's quick thinking and decision to land US Airways Flight 1549 in the Hudson River after a bird strike is highlighted as an example of exceptional decision-making under extreme pressure. His actions, from considering various landing options to ensuring all passengers were evacuated, demonstrate the application of the three steps: challenging constraints, embracing a pre-mortem to consider various outcomes, and checking the basics to ensure a successful rescue. The story concludes the speaker's presentation on effective decision-making.

Keywords

💡Entrepreneurship

Entrepreneurship refers to the process of designing, launching, and running a new business, which typically involves risk-taking and innovation. In the video's context, entrepreneurship is central to the challenge presented to Stanford University students, where they are tasked with turning a small amount of seed funding into as much profit as possible, showcasing the essence of entrepreneurial thinking.

💡Constraints

Constraints are limitations or restrictions that can affect the range of possible solutions or actions. The video emphasizes the importance of challenging constraints, as seen in the Stanford students' story, where the winning team did not let the $5 limit their thinking and instead sold the presentation rights, demonstrating innovative problem-solving.

💡Decision Making

Decision making is the cognitive process of selecting a course of action from multiple alternatives. The video's theme revolves around effective decision-making strategies, such as challenging constraints and embracing a pre-mortem approach, which are illustrated through various examples including the Stanford class and the Cobra effect story.

💡Pre-Mortem

A pre-mortem is a forward-looking analysis where one envisions potential failures before making a decision. The video suggests using this approach to mitigate risks, contrasting it with a post-mortem which is an analysis after the fact. The concept is exemplified by the Cobra effect story, where a pre-mortem could have prevented the unintended consequences of the snake bounty program.

💡Innovation

Innovation is the introduction of new methods or ideas that bring about significant positive changes. The video uses the term in the context of the Stanford students' challenge, where the winning team's innovative approach of selling presentation rights instead of using the $5 exemplifies thinking outside the box.

💡Cobra Effect

The Cobra Effect is a term used to describe an unintended consequence resulting from a well-intentioned action. The video uses this term to illustrate the importance of a pre-mortem, as the British government's snake bounty in colonial India led to an increase in the cobra population, highlighting the need for foresight in decision-making.

💡Basics

Basics refer to the fundamental elements or principles of something. The video emphasizes the importance of checking the basics before making a decision, using the Mars Climate Orbiter spacecraft failure as an example, where a simple unit of measurement error led to a catastrophic outcome.

💡Simulation

A simulation is an imitation of a process or system for the purpose of study, training, or analysis. The video mentions simulations run by the speaker's company to prepare professionals for real-world decisions, indicating the practical application of theoretical decision-making strategies.

💡Strategy

Strategy refers to a plan of action designed to achieve a long-term or overall aim. The video discusses the importance of strategic thinking in decision-making, particularly in the context of the speaker's company's business simulations and the examples provided, such as the Mars mission and the plane landing on the Hudson River.

💡Sully Sullenberger

Sully Sullenberger, referred to in the video, is a former airline pilot known for his role in the successful emergency water landing of US Airways Flight 1549 in the Hudson River. His story is used as an example of effective decision-making under extreme pressure, where he challenged constraints, considered potential outcomes, and checked the basics.

Highlights

A Stanford University entrepreneurship class challenged students to maximize profit from a $5 seed fund.

The winning team sold the presentation rights to a company, demonstrating innovative thinking over using the $5.

The importance of challenging constraints in decision-making was emphasized to foster innovation.

The presenter's company, Inability, specializes in leadership development through team-based business simulations.

Over 20,000 professionals from 30 countries have participated in Inability's simulations to improve real-world decision-making.

Three key steps for effective decision-making were introduced based on observations from simulations.

A pre-mortem approach was suggested to envision potential failure before making a decision.

The 'Cobra effect' from British colonial India serves as a cautionary tale against unforeseen consequences of decisions.

The Mars Climate Orbiter disaster highlighted the importance of checking basic details in decision-making processes.

The story of 'Sully' Sullenberger's Hudson River landing exemplified challenging constraints and effective decision-making under pressure.

Captain Sullenberger's methodical approach to decision-making ensured the survival of all passengers.

The necessity to balance envisioning success with contemplating potential failure in the decision-making process.

The importance of not overlooking the basics, even when dealing with complex strategies or plans.

The value of conducting a pre-mortem to identify potential pitfalls before embarking on a course of action.

The story of the aircraft's successful water landing underscored the significance of checking the basics in high-stakes situations.

A call to action for individuals to apply these decision-making steps to their daily lives to achieve better outcomes.

Transcripts

five dollars and a class on

entrepreneurship the class was at

Stanford University and the students

were presented with a challenge the

instructor split the group of students

into teams and then handed each team an

envelope with five dollars of seed

funding for their brand-new operation

they had one task turn the five dollars

into the most money possible in a short

timeframe the final part of this

exercise came early the next week when

each team was required to present to the

rest of the students highlighting what

they had done and the amount of money

they had generated I'm sure you were all

now strategizing in your head what would

you do if given the same choice and I'm

guessing you're wondering well what did

the winning team do would it surprise

you to find out that the winning team

didn't even use the five dollars so what

did they do well they sold the rights to

that presentation to the rest of the

class to a company in town that was more

than happy to pay them for the privilege

of pitching a group of brilliant

Stanford students with the aim of

recruiting them to join their

organization upon graduation

the winning team spent the short amount

of time they had maximizing the real

opportunity they had the presentation

which required challenging the

constraints of the exercise in this case

that five dollars in the envelope

constraints prevent innovative ideas

from ever developing step number one if

you want to excel at decision making oh

we start by challenging the constraints

I find the decision making process

fascinating

I run the strategy team inability we're

a leadership development company based

in Austin Texas that places people in

team-based competitive business

simulations to mimic the decisions they

make in the real world to better prepare

them for the challenges ahead in the

past three years alone over

20,000 professionals in over 30

countries have participated in one of

our simulations we get to work with some

of the most innovative companies on the

planet and we get to witness firsthand

what truly exceptional decision-making

looks like the three steps I present

today are distilled from those

observations and they focus on what to

do before you decide it doesn't matter

if you're a professional on the

precipice of a critical choice or a

parent in the midst of a conundrum

considering the path to take with your

child or student deciding what school to

attend or what major to pursue we all

make thousands of decisions each day and

we are all striving for an edge I

started with that Stanford story because

it highlights something that I see time

and time again in our simulation too

many teams jump right into solving a

problem and they accept all the

constraints we present them with if you

want to excel at decision-making begin

by considering what barriers are holding

you back start there and see what is

possible step number one challenge the

constraints to introduce the second step

I want to share something that probably

won't surprise you one of the most

impactful periods during our simulation

is actually after the experience is over

when people and teams reflect on what

went right and what went wrong we do

this often in life and we call this

exercise a post mortem because we wait

until the event has concluded here's

what our time with leaders around the

world has taught us take this post

mortem approach and flip it around

embrace a pre-mortem consider what

failure would look like before you ever

go down a path it's human nature to

strategize a prep and approach and then

formulate all of the ways that you will

be successful

don't get me wrong it is great to

envision your success and you really

should only pursue decisions that you

believe will have a positive outcome

however I've watched professionals

strategize Grandia

plans of the many ways they will triumph

in our simulation but many times all of

that energy comes at the expense of

spending any time brainstorming how they

might fail and the many ways they might

fail so now let me tell you a story

about snakes the British government and

a striking example of where a pre-mortem

could have averted a decision-making

disaster during the era of

colonialization in India the British

government was concerned about the

number of venomous Cobra snakes in Delhi

after countless failed ideas the

government decided to offer a cash

bounty for every dead Cobra initially

this was an extremely successful

approach as a number of snakes were

killed for this new reward here's the

problem

imaginative individuals started to breed

Cobras explicitly for the income they

can now generate it didn't take long the

government became aware of this and they

quickly scrapped the reward program for

dead Cobras however this led the Cobra

breeders to set their now worthless

snakes free the wild Cobra population

became even worse than it was initially

the apparent solution for the problem

made the situation even worse this is

now unsurprisingly referred to as the

Cobra effect it is also a perfect

illustration of the power of a

pre-mortem before we decide we choose

most often to imagine what success will

look like and then for some reason we

wait until the experience is over and go

over with a fine-tooth comb and conduct

a forensic post-mortem invest the time

upfront contemplating how an idea you

are considering could end in failure

step number two embrace a pre-mortem to

introduce the third step I want to share

a story from 1999 about a NASA mission

to study the climate of the planet Mars

after almost 10 months of travel and a

build cost of over a hundred and twenty

five million dollars

the Mars climate orbiter spacecraft

burned and broke into pieces due to a

navigational mistake the fascinating

thing about this failure was that it was

entirely preventable there were multiple

teams working on the project one of the

teams used the metric system in their

calculation another team provided

crucial data using inches feet and

pounds some of the smartest people on

the planet legitimate rocket scientists

forgot to check that both teams were

using the same unit of measurement and

the consequences were catastrophic thus

far I've stood on this stage and I've

told you that your first step should be

to challenge the constraints to allow

you to think big then I told you that

most of us are predisposed to

contemplate success and instead you need

to balance that and contemplate failure

those first two steps allow you the

capacity to think outside that

proverbial box we hear so much about

but the third step is vital and it's

often overlooked never forget to check

the basics

I have watched senior leaders of Fortune

500 companies concoct truly impressive

strategic plans in our simulation with

multiple levels of complexity in an

effort to win the game but many times

they let small details prove to be their

downfall during one of our simulations

completely unbeknownst to the

participants at the onset of the game

over the course of the experience we're

going to challenge them with unforeseen

external events these events range from

unexpected product recalls to social

media PR disasters all the way to

natural disasters like hurricanes that

put their virtual employees at risk many

times though it is actually the more

simple tasks of bringing a product to

market that trip a team up the steps

required to bring a product to market

actually don't change throughout the

course of our game and they're pretty

basic

but once we introduce intense adverse

events and the clock continues to tick

down

teams then struggle to complete those

basic tasks step number three before you

decide

check the basics never let the minut

details be the downfall of the decision

on your doorstep

we started with $5 ingenuity at Stanford

and then we talked about cobra snakes in

India and then we talked about

spacecrafts destined for Mars three

stories that highlight three steps to

effective decision-making I want to

finish with a story about January 15th

2009 when an aircraft with 150 people on

board took off from New York City

destined for Charlotte North Carolina

three minutes after takeoff an ordinary

flight became anything but the pilot

would later remark that he heard

terrible noises the likes of which he

had never heard before

and it felt as if the bottom had fallen

out of his world what changed the plane

had struck a flock of Canadian geese

causing both engines to shut down it was

at that point that Sully Sullenberger

took control from his copilot and

radioed a mayday call I don't know if I

can highlight any example of challenging

the constraints more than the following

exchange between Sullenberger and air

traffic control he had previously

considered returning to LaGuardia

Airport then he considered nearby

Teterboro Airport in New Jersey before

receiving the following message quote

which runway would you like

captain sullenberger's responds we're

gonna be in the Hudson the response from

air traffic control I'm sorry say again

after the event Sully would say that

given the fact that they were in New

York City one of the most densely

populated places on the planet it was

actually the Hudson River although an

extreme option that represented the best

chance for a safe outcome so he

challenged the constraints and readied

for a water landing at that point his

Prima

began he actually believed that he could

land his plane intact in the river but

what he did next was contemplate how

long his aircraft would float and given

that it was January he considered the

feasibility of a water rescue given the

freezing temperatures after walking

through different scenarios of success

and contemplating different scenarios of

failure he moved forward on his

decision-making path as the aircraft

approached the river he had his copilot

shout out airspeed and altitude to

confirm the critical basic details that

ended up leading to all 150 people on

board surviving after the landing and

during the water rescue there was

actually one final check to be done

captain Sullenberger walked the length

of the flooded aircraft twice to ensure

that no passengers remained on board

before he finally exited the plane each

day we are presented with thousands of

decisions it is my greatest hope that

you never faced anything as perilous as

what Sully faced that cold January day

but no matter the gravity of the

decision you face before you decide

first challenge the constraints to allow

you to think big and think different

next embrace a pre-mortem to mitigate

for potential mistakes and better

formulate the correct course of action

and conclude by checking the basics to

ensure that small details don't prevent

you from accomplishing amazing things

thank you all so much for your time

[Music]

[Applause]