Joseph S. Nye, Jr.: What Is Power?

Summary

This script discusses the concept of power, distinguishing between 'hard' and 'soft' power. It highlights how power can be exerted through coercion, payment, or attraction. The speaker notes that China, despite its economic growth, has not yet matched the US in terms of military or soft power. The script also touches on the historical shift of power from Europe and North America to Asia, emphasizing the importance of soft power in the Information Age.

Takeaways

• 💪 Power is defined as the ability to influence others to achieve desired outcomes.
• 🔨 There are three main methods of exerting power: coercion or threats (hard power), promises or payments, and attraction (soft power).
• 📊 Hard power involves the use of force or financial incentives, while soft power relies on attraction and persuasion without coercion.
• 📈 Resources that produce power are measurable, but their effectiveness can vary greatly depending on the context.
• 🌏 China has significant economic power and is converting it into military and soft power, but it has not yet caught up with the US in these areas.
• 📉 There has been an exaggeration of China's economic power, and its growth rate has slowed down, affecting projections of its future economy size.
• 🚀 China's military power is growing, particularly in the region, but it lacks the global power projection capability and experience of the US.
• 🌐 China has invested heavily in soft power through media outlets like CCTV and CGTN, but its credibility is challenged by perceptions of propaganda.
• 🌍 Global perceptions show that the US is generally more attractive than China, with the exception of regions where US policies are unpopular.
• 📊 Historically, there has been a shift in economic power from Europe and North America towards Asia, with China and India leading this change.
• 🌱 Demographic shifts are affecting global power dynamics, with Europe experiencing decline and Asia, particularly China and India, growing in influence.
• 💡 In the Information Age, the role of soft power is becoming increasingly important as narratives and the dissemination of stories gain prominence.

Q & A

What are the three main ways to exert power according to the transcript?

The three main ways to exert power are through coercion or threats (hard power), through carrots or promises/payments (also considered hard power), and through attraction and persuasion without coercion or payment (soft power).

What is the difference between hard power and soft power?

Hard power involves the use of coercion, threats, or payments to get what you want, while soft power is the ability to attract and persuade others without the use of force or payment.

How does the context affect the effectiveness of power resources?

The effectiveness of power resources depends on the context. For example, the number of tanks a country has may not reflect its true military power if the battle is in an environment like a swamp instead of a desert.

What is the relationship between power measures and observed behavior?

There is often a gap between power measures (based on resources) and the actual observed behavior in achieving desired outcomes. Measuring power by resources does not always provide accurate predictions of behavior.

How is China's economic power being converted into other forms of power?

China is converting its economic power into effective military power in its immediate region and is also trying to convert it into soft power, which is the ability to attract and persuade others.

Why is there an exaggeration of Chinese economic power?

The exaggeration of Chinese economic power arises from the comparison of growth rates between China and the US, leading to the assumption that China would surpass the US in economic size by 2020, which did not happen.

What challenges does China face in converting its economic power into military power?

China faces challenges such as the lack of global power projection capability and the experience in combined forces and warfare that the US possesses.

How does propaganda affect a country's soft power?

Propaganda can undermine a country's soft power because if people perceive the information as propagandistic, it becomes less persuasive and therefore less effective in attracting and persuading others.

What is the exception to China's soft power being less attractive than the US according to the transcript?

The exception is the Middle East, where US policies are less attractive for various reasons, making China's soft power relatively more appealing in that region.

How has the world's economic distribution changed from 1800 to the present?

From 1800 to the present, Asia's share of the world's economy has shifted from being roughly equivalent to its population share to a much smaller proportion, and it is now beginning to approximate its population share again, particularly due to the rise of China and India.

What demographic changes are predicted for 2050 according to the UN estimates?

The UN estimates that by 2050, India will have the largest share of the world's population, followed by China. The US will still rank third, while Europe, Russia, and Japan will see a decline in their shares. Africa's share will increase dramatically.

Why is soft power becoming more important in the Information Age?

In the Information Age, the abundance of information and the increased access to it make the narratives and the ability to disseminate stories to attract and persuade others more important, thus increasing the role of soft power in the mix.

Outlines

00:00

💪 Understanding Power Dynamics

This paragraph discusses the concept of power as the ability to influence others to achieve desired outcomes. It categorizes power into three types: coercion or threats (hard power), promises or payments, and attraction or persuasion (soft power). The speaker emphasizes that while resources can be measured and compared, they do not always translate directly into the desired behavior, indicating a gap between power resources and actual power. The paragraph also touches on China's efforts to convert its economic power into military and soft power, but acknowledges that it has not yet caught up with the US in these areas. It highlights the significance of context in assessing power and the importance of soft power in an information age.

05:01

🌏 Shifting Global Power and the Role of Soft Power

The second paragraph examines the historical and projected shifts in global power from Europe and North America towards Asia, particularly focusing on China and India. It discusses the demographic and economic changes that have contributed to this shift and predicts that by 2050, the US will still hold a significant share of the world's population, while Europe and other regions decline. The speaker also notes the increasing importance of information technology and narratives in shaping power dynamics, suggesting that soft power, which includes the ability to persuade and attract others, will become more significant in the information age. The paragraph concludes by stating that while soft power is growing in importance, it is not necessarily more important than hard power, but rather that a combination of both, termed 'smart power,' will be crucial.

Keywords

💡Power

Power is the ability to affect others to achieve desired outcomes. The video discusses three main types of power: coercion (threats), payments (rewards), and attraction (soft power). The focus is on how these types of power are used and their effectiveness in different contexts.

💡Coercion

Coercion refers to using threats or force to influence others. In the video, it is described as a form of hard power. Coercion can be effective in some situations but often leads to resistance or resentment.

💡Payments

Payments involve using rewards or promises to influence others. This method is also categorized under hard power. The video mentions that while payments can be persuasive, they might not always lead to genuine or lasting change.

💡Soft Power

Soft power is the ability to attract and persuade others without using force or payments. It is contrasted with hard power and is deemed more sustainable in achieving influence. The video highlights that soft power relies on cultural appeal, political values, and foreign policies.

💡Hard Power

Hard power is the use of coercion and payments to influence others. It includes military force and economic incentives. The video contrasts hard power with soft power, noting that while hard power is measurable and often immediate, it may not always lead to desired long-term outcomes.

💡Attraction

Attraction is a component of soft power. It involves making oneself appealing to others to gain influence. The video explains that attraction can be achieved through culture, political ideals, and policies that others find attractive or admirable.

💡Military Power

Military power is a form of hard power, measured by resources like the number of tanks or soldiers a country has. The video discusses the limitations of measuring power purely by military resources, as the effectiveness of these resources depends on the context of their use.

💡Economic Power

Economic power refers to a country's ability to influence others through economic means. The video discusses China's economic growth and its attempts to convert economic power into military and soft power. It also notes that economic power alone does not equate to overall influence.

💡Propaganda

Propaganda is information used to influence public perception, often in a biased or misleading way. The video points out that while China invests heavily in media to boost its soft power, the perceived propaganda undermines its credibility and effectiveness.

💡Information Technology

Information technology refers to the use of technology for processing and distributing information. The video emphasizes the growing importance of information and narratives in wielding power, suggesting that soft power becomes more significant in the Information Age.

Highlights

Power is the ability to affect others to get desired outcomes, achieved through coercion/threats (hard power), promises/payments, or attraction/persuasion (soft power).

There is a gap between measurable power resources and actual observed behavior in achieving outcomes.

China has significant economic power but has not yet caught up with the US in military or soft power.

China's rapid economic growth was overestimated, and it still lags behind the US in per capita income and economic sophistication.

China has made efforts to convert its economic power into soft power through global media outlets like CCTV and CGTN.

China's soft power efforts may be undermined by perceptions of propaganda, reducing their persuasiveness.

Global polls show that the US is generally more attractive than China, except in the Middle East where US policies are less popular.

Long-term power is shifting from Europe/North America towards Asia, driven by demographic and economic growth in countries like China and India.

The industrial revolution in Europe and North America created a gap in economic power that is now closing as Asia rises.

Demographic decline in Europe and aging populations in countries like Russia and Japan will reduce their global power shares.

The US is maintaining its population share due to immigration, while Africa's population is rising significantly.

In an information age, the ability to disseminate narratives and persuade others (soft power) becomes increasingly important.

Soft power is likely to play a larger role in the mix of soft and hard power (smart power) in the information age, though it may not be more important than hard power.

Context is crucial when comparing power resources, as the same resources may have different impacts depending on the situation.

China still has a long way to go in developing its global military power projection capabilities and combined forces experience compared to the US.

Transcripts

well power is the ability to affect

others to get the outcomes you want and

there are basically three ways you can

do that you can do it with coercion or

threats you can do it with carrots or

promises or payments and you can do it

with attraction and of those three ways

of using power the first two threats or

payments I call hard power and the third

the ability to get what you want through

attraction and persuasion without the

use of coercion or payment I call soft

power and all three are elements of the

ways in which you get others to do what

you want

while we often compare the resources

that produce power even though those

resources don't always produce the

behavior that I mentioned but they're

measurable so for example we talk about

military power and we say that one kind

of country a has you know let's say a

thousand tanks and country B has 15,000

tanks and we're tempted to say that

country B is 15 times more powerful

militarily that country a but if the

battle is in a desert that may be true

but the the battle is in a swamp it's

not true so the power resources which we

often use to compare power depend very

much on context and in that sense we

have to realize that when we measure

power by resources we're not always

getting the right answers in terms of

behavior so very often there is a gap

between power measures resources and

power observe behavior on getting the

outcomes we want

China is well-endowed in economic power

it's not a good job of increasing its

economic resources it's converted some

of that economic power into effective

military power particularly in the

immediate region and is trying to

convert a good deal of its economic

power into soft power the ability to

attract but in all three of those

dimensions

I don't think China has really been able

to catch up with the US and I don't

think it will for quite some time

if there's been a great deal of

exaggeration of Chinese economic power

when China was growing at 10% a year the

u.s. 2% a year

everybody said China would have a larger

economy than the US by 2020

now the China's growth rate is probably

close to 6% or perhaps even less and the

u.s. is growing about two two and a half

percent people so well that maybe 2030

or 2040 but even if that's true that

China has a larger economy than the US

it won't be higher or equal to the

United States and per capita income

which is a way of measuring the

sophistication of an economy so I think

there's been a an exaggeration of

Chinese economic power it doesn't mean

it's not significant it's very

significant but it doesn't mean that

China is equal to the US and if you talk

about converting that into military

power the Chinese have quite some

distance to go if you look at the global

military power they don't have that

global power projection capability of

the US has nor do they have the

experience of combined forces and the

experience in warfare and then if you

look at soft power you'll see that the

Chinese while they have spent billions

of dollars on turning CCTV and Chinua

into global instruments of dissemination

of persuasion it's very hard to have

credibility if it's if there's a lot of

propaganda involved soft power is the

ability persuade but if people see

something as propagandistic it's not

very persuasive and therefore it doesn't

really produce soft power so polls that

have been taken in Southeast Asia but it

around the world have showed that China

is not as attractive as the US with

perhaps one exception which is the

Middle East where the US policies are

are not very attractive for right

reasons

think if you take a long enough

perspective you'll see that power is

shifting from Europe North America

toward Asia if you look at at the world

and let's say 1800 Asia was basically

maybe 60% of the world's population and

about 60% of the world's economy by 1900

that had changed dramatically with Asia

being still the same percent of the

world's population more than half but

only about 20% of the world's economy

and that's not something that happened

in Asia it's something that didn't

happen which was the industrial

revolution which occurred in Europe and

North America which led to this gap but

I would say that in the latter half of

the 20th century and in the beginnings

of the 21st century we're seeing

something which will approximate Asia

having the similar proportions of the

world's population and the world's

economy this has been most dramatic in

China but is now beginning to spread to

to India as well and so that does lead

to a long term power shift if you want

from from west to east it's particularly

affecting Europe which is suffering a

demographic decline less than the United

States which is because of our

immigration policies were able to keep

our shared world population the UN

estimates that in 2050 the US will still

ranked number three in terms of its

share of the world's population and

whereas China and India trade places

India will be number one China number

two Europe Russia Japan and others will

declined in their share of world

population Africa will come up quite

dramatically

information technology means that the

narratives that we use and the ability

to get our stories across to attract

others and persuades others becomes more

important information has always been

important and an important source of

power but in an Information Age when

information is far more plentiful and

the more people with access to it you

could argue that the role of soft power

in the mix increases it doesn't mean

that soft power is more important than

hard power I would say it's probably not

but it does mean that the mixture of

soft and hard power which when they

reinforce each other I sometimes called

smart power that soft power part of the

mix is likely to increase in an

information age