Inflasi Indonesia Diprediksi Kembali "Memanas" di Januari 2025

Summary

Indonesia's inflation in January 2025 is expected to rise due to increased prices of chili, cigarettes, and non-subsidized fuel. According to market consensus, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) will see a 0.3% month-on-month increase, with an annual inflation projection of 1.85%. Core inflation is predicted to reach 2.27%. Historically, January inflation has been high due to seasonal factors such as heavy rains and disruptions in harvests, leading to significant price hikes in several food commodities. The Central Statistics Agency (BPS) will announce the official data on February 3, 2025.

Takeaways

• 😀 Inflation in Indonesia is expected to rise in January 2025, driven by increases in chili, cigarette prices, and non-subsidized fuel.
• 😀 The Central Statistics Agency (BPS) will release the official inflation data for January 2025 on Monday, February 3, 2025.
• 😀 A market consensus, based on 12 institutions, forecasts a 0.3% monthly inflation increase for January 2025.
• 😀 Yearly inflation for January 2025 is projected to reach 1.85%.
• 😀 Core inflation for January 2025 is expected to rise slightly to 2.27%, compared to December 2024.
• 😀 In the last five years, January inflation has consistently been higher due to seasonal factors like the rainy season, floods, and disruptions in harvests.
• 😀 Seasonal weather events, such as heavy rains and floods, can disrupt food supplies and cause sharp price hikes in certain food products.
• 😀 Monthly inflation at the start of the year often rises due to disruptions in the supply of essential food items.
• 😀 The BPS data for January 2025 will provide a clearer picture of the impact of these seasonal disruptions on inflation.
• 😀 The January inflation increase is partly attributed to rising prices of basic necessities like fuel, cigarettes, and vegetables.

Q & A

What is the main reason behind the projected increase in inflation in Indonesia for January 2025?

The projected increase in inflation is mainly attributed to the rise in prices of chili, cigarettes, and non-subsidized fuel.

When will the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) release the inflation data for January 2025?

The BPS will announce the inflation data for January 2025 on Monday, February 3, 2025.

What is the market consensus regarding the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January 2025?

The market consensus, based on the views of 12 institutions, predicts that the CPI will increase by 0.3% on a monthly basis in January 2025.

What is the projected year-on-year inflation rate for January 2025 in Indonesia?

The year-on-year inflation rate for January 2025 is projected to reach 1.85%.

What is the expected core inflation for January 2025?

The core inflation for January 2025 is expected to be 2.27%, slightly higher than the December 2024 figure.

How does the inflation rate in January compare to the inflation rate of previous years?

In the last five years, the inflation rate in January has generally been higher, with an average monthly inflation of 0.32%.

Why is inflation often higher at the beginning of the year in Indonesia?

Inflation is typically higher at the beginning of the year due to seasonal factors like the rainy season, floods, and harvest disruptions, which affect the supply of food and lead to price hikes.

What role does the rainy season play in causing inflation in Indonesia?

The rainy season leads to flooding and disruptions in the harvest season, which causes supply shortages in food commodities, driving their prices up and contributing to inflation.

How does the disruption of the harvest season impact inflation in Indonesia?

Disruptions to the harvest season lead to a shortage of food supplies, which results in sharp price increases for various food commodities.

What does the term 'core inflation' refer to, and how is it different from general inflation?

Core inflation refers to the measure of inflation that excludes volatile items like food and energy. It reflects the underlying long-term inflation trends, whereas general inflation includes all items, including food and energy, which are more prone to seasonal fluctuations.