Resesi AS di Depan Mata, Awas Ekonomi Indonesia Goyang

Summary

The transcript discusses the rising tensions in global trade due to Donald Trump's tariff policies and their impact on various economies. While the U.S. faces potential recession risks, economic indicators show signs of strain. The U.S. debt has worsened, and uncertainty surrounding trade policies exacerbates the situation. The recession's impact on Indonesia is significant, including a potential slowdown in exports, foreign investments, and a weakened Rupiah. However, Indonesia's economy might be better positioned compared to other nations, with the government and central bank preparing to stabilize the economy amid these challenges.

Takeaways

• 😀 Trump's tariff policy intensifies global trade tensions, with countries like Australia and Germany facing economic threats.
• 😀 The U.S. itself is not immune to the effects of its own policies, with the risk of a recession looming.
• 😀 A recession in the U.S. could have widespread impacts, not only on the country but also on the global economy.
• 😀 A recession is defined by significant, broad, and sustained economic decline, as evaluated by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER).
• 😀 U.S. economic indicators such as retail spending and consumer confidence are showing signs of potential economic slowdown.
• 😀 Experts suggest that while the U.S. economy may feel like it's in a recession, it hasn’t officially reached that point yet.
• 😀 The U.S. government’s rising debt and deficit are further complicating the economic situation, with a record $1.15 trillion deficit in the early months of fiscal year 2025.
• 😀 Economic policies under Trump, particularly his trade tariffs, are said to increase the risk of a recession, with uncertainty affecting business and consumer sentiment.
• 😀 The Federal Reserve's GDP Now model predicts U.S. economic contraction in Q2 2025, which could lead to a technical recession.
• 😀 If the U.S. enters a recession, it would slow Indonesia's economic growth, affecting exports to the U.S. and potentially reducing foreign investment from the U.S. into Indonesia.

Q & A

How are the U.S. trade policies under Trump affecting global trade tensions?

Trump's tariff policies are escalating global trade tensions, not just threatening Australia but also pushing Germany to the brink of recession. Even Canada had to raise interest rates to mitigate economic instability.

What is the risk of recession in the U.S. and how might it affect the global economy?

The risk of recession in the U.S. is increasing, with various indicators pointing to a decline in economic activity. A U.S. recession could trigger a broader global economic slowdown due to its significant role in the global economy.

What defines a recession, according to the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)?

A recession, as defined by NBER, is a broad and sustained economic downturn characterized by significant contraction across multiple sectors, including income per capita, employment levels, consumer spending, manufacturing, and trade.

What indicators does the NBER use to evaluate if the U.S. is in a recession?

NBER evaluates six main indicators: per capita income, nonfarm employment, household survey employment, personal consumption, manufacturing sales, and industrial production.

How has U.S. consumer confidence been impacted by the current economic situation?

Consumer confidence in the U.S. has sharply declined, indicating growing public concern about the economic outlook. This is a significant signal of the economic slowdown.

What role has U.S. government debt played in exacerbating the economic downturn?

The rising U.S. government debt and budget deficit, which reached $1.15 trillion in early 2025, have contributed to the economic strain. Increased government spending, particularly on debt interest and social programs, has strained the economy further.

How has Trump's tariff policy influenced the economic situation?

Trump's tariff policies have contributed to economic uncertainty, negatively affecting both consumer sentiment and business confidence. This has increased the risk of a recession, especially as trade relations with key partners become more unpredictable.

What does the 'GDP Now' model from the Atlanta Fed predict for the U.S. economy in 2025?

The 'GDP Now' model predicts that the U.S. economy will experience a contraction in Q2 2025, potentially leading to a technical recession, which could worsen the global economic conditions.

How might a U.S. recession affect Indonesia's economy?

A U.S. recession could slow Indonesia's economic growth, primarily through reduced exports to the U.S. and diminished foreign investments. This was evident during past recessions, where exports from Indonesia to the U.S. significantly dropped.

What are the potential consequences of a U.S. recession on Indonesia's foreign investments?

A U.S. recession could reduce foreign direct investments (FDI) from the U.S. to Indonesia. For example, U.S. investment in Indonesia dropped during previous recessions, and this trend could repeat if the U.S. economy contracts.