How Abu Dhabi built an axis of secessionists across the region | Andreas Krieg | MEE Opinion

Summary

The UAE has strategically expanded its influence in the Horn of Africa by engaging with secessionist regions like Puntland, Somaliland, and Jubaland. Bypassing Somalia’s central government, the UAE has invested in military bases, mercenary operations, and financial support to solidify its control and enhance its global position. By fostering a network of autonomous intermediaries, Abu Dhabi has created a resilient geopolitical web that strengthens its regional and global standing, aligning with major powers like Russia, China, and the U.S. This approach has elevated the UAE to the status of a key player in international power struggles.

Takeaways

• 😀 The UAE has strategically bypassed Somalia's federal government in Mogadishu, engaging directly with regional states like Puntland, Somaliland, and Jubaland.
• 😀 The UAE has established a significant presence in the Horn of Africa by funding and training separatist movements to create strategic autonomy and influence.
• 😀 In 2010, the UAE set up a force of mercenaries in Puntland to hunt down pirates, operating in violation of a UN arms embargo and bypassing Somalia's sovereignty.
• 😀 Abu Dhabi has invested heavily in Somaliland, both militarily and economically, including establishing a military base in Berbera and strengthening its push for Somaliland's independence.
• 😀 The UAE is the most important investor in Somaliland and has likely lobbied for international recognition of the region's independence.
• 😀 The UAE has expanded its influence in Jubaland, providing military support to separatist forces in southern Somalia, further destabilizing the federal government in Mogadishu.
• 😀 The UAE has used its military bases in key locations like Bosaso (Puntland) and Kismayo (Jubaland) to create a web of strategic outposts across the region.
• 😀 Abu Dhabi’s decentralized strategy, bypassing Mogadishu, allows it to secure loyalty from local leaders and control key resources while avoiding direct confrontation with the federal government.
• 😀 The UAE's support for the RSF (Rapid Support Forces) in Sudan is part of a wider network strategy to increase its regional influence and create a system of interdependence with various political actors.
• 😀 By cultivating relationships with secessionist groups, the UAE has positioned itself as a key regional player, creating a network that not only benefits the UAE's political goals but also elevates its global status as an indispensable broker in international relations.

Q & A

What is the UAE's strategy in Somalia, and how does it bypass the central government?

The UAE's strategy in Somalia involves engaging directly with regional authorities and separatist movements, bypassing the central Somali government in Mogadishu. This allows the UAE to exert influence through local leaders and control critical military and economic hubs in Somalia, such as in Puntland and Somaliland.

How has the UAE supported Puntland in its fight against piracy?

In 2010, the UAE set up a force of mercenaries in Puntland to hunt down pirates on land and at sea. This effort included the creation of the Puntland Maritime Police Force (PMPF), which was initially run by an Emirati company and reported directly to the Puntland president, bypassing the Somali federal government.

What role has the UAE played in the development of Somaliland?

The UAE has been a significant investor in Somaliland, providing military training and financial support. It has also established a military base in the region, strengthening Somaliland's claim to autonomy from Somalia. The UAE's involvement is seen as part of its broader effort to influence the region and potentially lobby for Somaliland's recognition as an independent state.

Why did the UAE establish a military base in Bosaso, and how is it linked to the RSF in Sudan?

The UAE opened a military base in Bosaso in 2022, which became a node in the resupply network for the RSF (Rapid Support Forces) in Sudan. This base supports the UAE's broader strategy of creating strategic footholds in key locations across the Horn of Africa to exert influence and control over regional dynamics.

How does the UAE's support for Jubaland affect its relationship with Mogadishu?

The UAE's support for Jubaland, including drone strikes and providing military vehicles, strengthens the separatist claims of the region. This has led to heightened tensions with the Somali federal government in Mogadishu, as the UAE has bypassed the central government to support regional leaders like Ahmed Madobe in Jubaland.

What is the significance of the UAE's decentralized approach in Somalia?

The UAE's decentralized approach allows it to operate through regional authorities and separatist movements, ensuring that it can maintain influence across Somalia while avoiding direct confrontation with Mogadishu. This strategy strengthens its foothold in key regions like Puntland, Somaliland, and Jubaland, where it can establish military bases and support local leaders.

How has the UAE's strategy contributed to its status as a regional great power?

The UAE's strategy of engaging with multiple regional actors, creating a web of interdependence, and building military and logistical networks has elevated its status as a regional great power. This approach has given the UAE strategic depth and autonomy, allowing it to secure its interests while navigating complex global geopolitics.

What role does the UAE play in the global geopolitical landscape, particularly in relation to other powers like Russia and China?

The UAE's strategic presence in key locations across Africa and the Middle East positions it as an indispensable broker in global geopolitics. The UAE's influence is especially critical for Russia, which relies on secessionist networks for its mercenary and commodity operations, and for China, which needs secure supply chains across Africa. The UAE's geopolitical actions are essential for both powers in maintaining access to critical resources.

How does the UAE use plausible deniability in its foreign policy?

The UAE uses plausible deniability by engaging with regional actors and intermediaries, allowing it to exert influence without directly involving itself in conflicts or drawing attention to its involvement. This strategy helps maintain its role as a key player while avoiding accountability for controversial actions.

How does the UAE's network in the Horn of Africa support its broader foreign policy goals?

The UAE's network in the Horn of Africa, consisting of military bases, financial investments, and alliances with regional separatists, supports its broader foreign policy by creating strategic positions in vital locations. This network enhances the UAE's ability to influence regional and global dynamics, securing its interests while ensuring political autonomy from central governments like Somalia's.