RISET OPERASI PART #6 - TEORI KEPUTUSAN || JURUSAN MANAJEMEN - Albert Steinado

Summary

This video on management decision-making explores how managers or entrepreneurs can make profitable decisions using a mathematical model approach. The process includes six key steps: identifying the problem, listing alternatives, assessing potential outcomes, using a mathematical model for selection, and applying the chosen solution. The video uses a practical example of a bakery owner, Pak Bejo, who needs to decide on expanding his business. Various decision-making techniques, such as decision tables, decision trees, and risk analysis, are discussed to help managers navigate certainty, risk, and uncertainty in decision-making.

Takeaways

• 😀 Decision-making is essential for managers and entrepreneurs to ensure profitability and business growth.
• 😀 Six steps in decision-making: identify the problem, create alternatives, assess outcomes, select a model, apply the model, and make the decision.
• 😀 Identifying the problem involves understanding the need for a new product or solution, like Pak Bejo's need for a new product for his bakery business.
• 😀 Alternatives for decision-making include building a large factory, a smaller factory, or not producing a new product at all.
• 😀 Evaluating possible outcomes is crucial, such as determining the profitability or loss for each alternative scenario.
• 😀 A decision tree model helps to visualize the decision process, using probabilities and expected outcomes for each alternative.
• 😀 In the case of Pak Bejo, the most profitable decision was to build a smaller factory, with an expected profit of 40,000.
• 😀 Three types of decision-making environments: certainty, risk, and uncertainty, each requiring different approaches and techniques.
• 😀 Under certainty, the manager has enough information to make a decision with minimal risk, using tools like linear programming.
• 😀 In a risky environment, managers must use probability to assess different alternatives, considering their potential outcomes.
• 😀 Uncertainty requires making assumptions and relying on the decision-maker's experience to make a choice, with methods like maximax or maximin helping to determine the best alternative.

Q & A

What is the first step in the decision-making process for a manager or entrepreneur?

The first step is to identify and define the problem clearly. This involves understanding the issue at hand that requires a decision, as in the case of Pak Bejo needing to decide on expanding his bakery business.

Why is it important to create a list of alternative solutions in the decision-making process?

Creating a list of alternatives allows the decision-maker to explore different possible actions and evaluate each one. This helps in choosing the best strategy that aligns with the company’s goals and resources.

What is the role of probability in decision-making models like decision trees?

Probability is used in decision-making models to estimate the likelihood of different outcomes, helping to assess the potential risks and rewards associated with each alternative decision.

Can you explain the concept of the Expected Monetary Value (EMV) in the context of this script?

EMV is a calculation used to determine the best decision by considering the expected profits or losses based on the probability of different outcomes. In the script, Pak Bejo uses this to calculate the profitability of each expansion alternative.

What is the difference between favorable and unfavorable market conditions as mentioned in the video?

Favorable market conditions refer to scenarios where demand for the product is high, leading to potential profits. Unfavorable conditions are characterized by low demand, which could result in losses.

How does the decision tree help in decision-making under uncertainty?

A decision tree visualizes possible alternatives, outcomes, and their associated probabilities, helping the decision-maker assess the most beneficial course of action under uncertain conditions by calculating the EMV for each option.

What is a decision table and how is it used in this context?

A decision table is a tool used to organize and evaluate different alternatives and outcomes. In the context of the video, it helps Pak Bejo list and compare the potential results of expanding his business under different market conditions.

What are the six steps in the decision-making process as outlined in the script?

The six steps are: 1) Identify and define the problem, 2) List possible alternatives, 3) Identify possible outcomes, 4) Create a decision matrix, 5) Apply mathematical decision models, and 6) Choose and implement the best decision.

What techniques are suggested for decision-making under conditions of uncertainty?

Techniques such as the Maximax, Maximin, Laplace, and Realism methods are suggested for decision-making under uncertainty. These techniques help the decision-maker evaluate and choose alternatives based on available information and assumptions.

Why is it important for a manager to understand decision-making under risk and uncertainty?

Understanding decision-making under risk and uncertainty allows a manager to make informed decisions even when there is insufficient information. By applying probability models and assumptions, the manager can anticipate possible outcomes and minimize risks.