Why fertility and birth rates are falling - The Global Story podcast, BBC World Service

Summary

In this episode of The Global Story, Lucy Hockings discusses the global trend of declining fertility rates, despite overall population growth. Stephanie Hegarty, BBC's population correspondent, explores the factors influencing this shift, including economic pressures, changing gender expectations, and cultural shifts. The conversation delves into the consequences of population decline, particularly the strain on social systems, and examines potential solutions like progressive policies, migration, and economic incentives. The podcast highlights the challenges and uncertainties of reversing this trend, offering insights into the complex dynamics shaping the future of global populations.

Takeaways

• 😀 The global population is growing, but fertility rates are declining worldwide due to factors like the cost of living, cultural changes, and economic challenges.
• 😀 Fertility rates are dropping most significantly in Europe and East Asia, while countries in Africa, such as Nigeria and Ethiopia, still experience rapid population growth.
• 😀 By 2050, three-quarters of countries will see their populations decline, with a predicted global population peak around 9-10 billion by the end of the century, followed by a decline.
• 😀 In wealthier countries, such as the UK, the high cost of living, including housing and education, significantly impacts people's decisions to have children.
• 😀 Surveys indicate that financial insecurity is a key factor influencing young people's decision not to have children, with many saying they cannot afford to start a family.
• 😀 In countries like Japan and South Korea, the heavy burden of work at home, coupled with long working hours, discourages many women from having children.
• 😀 Progressive policies in Scandinavian countries, such as equal paternity leave and affordable childcare, temporarily slowed fertility decline, but the effect has stalled over time.
• 😀 There is a growing social divide where men with lower incomes are more likely to remain involuntarily childless due to difficulty finding a partner, contributing to the fertility decline.
• 😀 The shift in societal views, where having children is now seen as a capstone event after achieving career and financial goals, is leading to delayed or abandoned family plans.
• 😀 While an ageing population creates economic strain due to fewer working-age individuals, there are potential long-term solutions like migration to help balance the workforce and economy.

Q & A

What is the global trend in fertility rates and population growth?

The global population is still growing but at a slower rate, with fertility rates declining worldwide. While some countries in Africa and Asia continue to see growth, many other countries are experiencing declining populations.

How do fertility rates in families reflect global trends?

In the example shared by Stephanie, each generation is having fewer children than the previous one. However, the family as a whole continues to grow, which mirrors the global pattern where some regions maintain population growth despite lower fertility rates.

Which regions are seeing the highest population growth?

Countries in Africa, such as Nigeria, Ethiopia, and Egypt, are experiencing rapid population growth, contributing significantly to the global population increase.

What is the significance of a fertility rate of 2.1 children per couple?

A fertility rate of 2.1 children per couple is considered the replacement level, meaning the population can sustain itself over time. Rates below this number lead to population decline.

How do economic factors influence decisions about having children?

Economic factors like the cost of living, housing, education, and childcare are significant influences on people’s decisions to have children. Financial insecurity, especially among younger generations, often leads to fewer children being born.

What role does social and cultural change play in fertility rates?

Social and cultural shifts, such as changing gender roles and work expectations, impact fertility rates. In countries like Japan and South Korea, women often avoid having children due to long working hours and the unequal distribution of domestic work.

How do Scandinavian countries address fertility decline?

Scandinavian countries were initially successful in countering fertility decline with progressive social policies, such as shared paternity leave and affordable childcare. However, these policies have had limited long-term success in reversing the trend.

What is the impact of the 'mating gap' on fertility rates?

The 'mating gap' refers to a situation where men, particularly those with lower education levels, struggle to find partners, leading to involuntary childlessness. As women become more educated and achieve higher social status, they are less likely to partner with men of lower status.

What challenges do young men face in relation to fertility?

Young men, particularly in the West, may face a sense of 'male malaise,' struggling to understand their place in a society where women are empowered. This gap in expectations and societal roles can contribute to lower fertility, as men may not feel ready or able to fulfill traditional family roles.

How does an aging population affect a country’s economy and infrastructure?

An aging population creates pressure on social services and healthcare systems, as there are fewer working-age people contributing taxes. Economists predict that an aging population will result in declining economic growth, as businesses struggle without enough consumers or workers.