Guru Besar IPB: Tarif Trump Pemicu Menuju Kebangkitan | Indonesia Business Forum tvOne

Summary

In this insightful discussion, experts delve into the impact of tariffs under Trump's administration, exploring both short-term and long-term challenges. They emphasize the need for Indonesia to adapt, focusing on immediate solutions like managing layoffs and inefficiencies, while also planning for industry restructuring and technological advancement. The conversation highlights the importance of maintaining strong global partnerships, such as ASEAN and RCEP, and rethinking Indonesia’s position in the global trade landscape. Ultimately, the experts stress the importance of moving quickly to reform the economy, boosting productivity, and avoiding the middle-income trap for future growth.

Takeaways

• 😀 The tariff policies of Trump are seen as a trigger, not a direct opportunity, with short-term challenges and long-term transformations required.
• 😀 In the short-term, the focus is on managing job losses and company closures due to external economic pressures.
• 😀 Medium-term plans emphasize improving efficiency, reducing unnecessary costs, and restructuring industries for sustainability.
• 😀 The textile and footwear industries, once dependent on cheap labor, must adapt by increasing productivity and embracing new technologies.
• 😀 The long-term challenge is rebuilding trust in international trade systems that were damaged by Trump's actions, particularly in relation to global supply chains.
• 😀 Indonesia is urged to strengthen multiregional trading agreements like ASEAN and RCEP, and adapt to the changing global landscape.
• 😀 The WTO reform without the US's veto power is discussed as a potential step for better global trade fairness.
• 😀 Indonesia must take proactive measures to remain relevant in global trade, refusing to let actions like Trump's harm its relationships with other nations.
• 😀 The growing importance of the global economy, where the US's contribution is diminishing, opens doors for Indonesia to engage with other nations and negotiate better deals.
• 😀 Indonesia's strategy involves moving quickly and strategically to overcome the crisis and build a more productive, competitive future economy.

Q & A

What is the main opportunity presented by the Trump tariffs according to the script?

The Trump tariffs are seen as a trigger or catalyst, prompting Indonesia to think strategically about short-term, medium-term, and long-term actions. The opportunity lies in addressing immediate impacts while preparing for structural changes and future growth.

How does the speaker suggest Indonesia should handle the short-term impact of the tariffs?

In the short term, Indonesia needs to address job losses and the closure of businesses caused by the tariffs. This involves providing immediate relief through labor-intensive projects and negotiations with affected sectors.

What are the medium-term strategies mentioned for Indonesia to adapt to the tariff situation?

The medium-term strategy involves improving efficiency by reducing unnecessary costs, tackling issues like economic inefficiency, and investing in restructuring industries, particularly by embracing new technologies and boosting productivity.

How does the speaker describe the long-term challenge posed by Trump’s tariffs?

The long-term challenge involves restoring global trust and managing the perception that countries like the U.S. may act unilaterally, which undermines the rule-based global trading system. Indonesia needs to adapt by strengthening regional agreements and engaging in multilateral trading systems.

What role do regional trade agreements like ASEAN and RCEP play in Indonesia's strategy?

Indonesia is encouraged to focus on strengthening regional trade agreements such as ASEAN and RCEP, as these provide a platform for collaboration and protection against unilateral actions like Trump's tariffs.

What is the importance of digital transformation and technology adoption in Indonesia’s industrial sector?

Digital transformation and technology adoption are essential for Indonesia's industries to remain competitive in the global market. The country can no longer rely solely on cheap labor and must improve productivity through technological innovation.

What does the speaker believe about Indonesia’s ability to compete on the global stage?

Indonesia is portrayed as a country that should not shy away from competing globally. With a large population and a strategic position, Indonesia is capable of becoming one of the top five global economies, despite the challenges posed by Trump’s policies.

How does the speaker view the current global economic situation, especially with the U.S. withdrawing from its leadership role?

The speaker highlights the changing global dynamics, where the U.S. has reduced its economic influence, now accounting for only 17% of the global economy. This opens opportunities for countries like Indonesia to foster stronger relationships with other nations and ensure open trade.

What specific measures are suggested for Indonesia’s delegation during negotiations with the U.S.?

Indonesia's delegation is encouraged to negotiate pragmatically, focusing on areas such as reducing trade surpluses with the U.S. by adjusting oil imports, and using tariff negotiations to secure better deals with other countries.

What challenge does the speaker identify regarding interest group politics and reforms in Indonesia?

The speaker points out the challenge of interest group politics, which can slow down necessary reforms. The government must act quickly and decisively to implement reforms before political interests derail the process.