Entrevista: Immanuel Wallerstein (Programa Milênio) 1 de 3

Summary

The transcript delves into the complexities of the world financial crisis, highlighting capitalism's cyclical nature and the current volatility driven by the decline of US economic dominance. It emphasizes the precarious role of the US dollar as the global reserve currency and explores the increasing need for government intervention in financial markets. The discussion also predicts the end of the globalization era, with protectionism on the rise globally, signaling a shift towards more localized and controlled economic systems. This transition, marked by uncertainty and volatility, challenges traditional free-market ideologies.

Takeaways

• 😀 Capitalism operates in cycles, with regular periods of recession, depression, and profit loss.
• 😀 The United States' global influence is largely due to the dollar being the sole reserve currency, allowing it to print money without severe repercussions.
• 😀 The U.S. debt is largely funded by foreign countries like China, Korea, and India, with the aim to sustain U.S. purchasing power for buying foreign goods.
• 😀 We are undergoing a major transition from the existing capitalist world economy to an unknown new system, characterized by volatility and uncertainty.
• 😀 Financial markets have always been influenced by state actions, despite the myth of complete deregulation and free-market operations.
• 😀 There is a growing shift towards government intervention in financial markets, contradicting the previous ideal of minimal state involvement.
• 😀 The global financial system is moving toward protectionism, with the U.S., Western Europe, Japan, and even China likely to adopt more restrictive economic policies.
• 😀 The term 'globalization' will likely fade from political, economic, and academic discussions within the next five years as countries move towards more localized economies.
• 😀 The international monetary system, including organizations like the IMF, tends to exert influence on other governments, but the U.S. remains largely unaffected by these forces.
• 😀 The end of the era of globalization will see a rise in protectionist measures and a departure from the previously dominant free trade mindset.

Q & A

What is the cyclical nature of capitalism that the professor refers to?

The cyclical nature of capitalism refers to the pattern of economic cycles in which capitalism experiences periods of growth followed by downturns, such as recessions or depressions. This has been a recurring feature throughout history.

How does the decline of the United States impact the global financial system?

The decline of the United States affects the global financial system because the US dollar is the world's sole reserve currency. This unique position allows the US to print money without the same concerns about debt that other nations face, influencing global trade and economic stability.

What role do countries like China and Korea play in sustaining the US economy?

Countries like China and Korea help sustain the US economy by purchasing US Treasury bonds. This practice provides the US with needed capital and helps maintain US purchasing power, allowing continued trade, especially in Chinese goods.

What is the professor's view on the future of financial markets?

The professor believes that we are transitioning from the current capitalist world economy to an unknown future system. This transition is characterized by volatility, uncertainty, and rapid fluctuations, making it difficult to predict short-term outcomes.

Why is August 9 considered a significant moment in the financial crisis?

August 9 is seen as a pivotal moment because central banks had to intervene to stabilize the financial markets. This event marked a turning point in the crisis, symbolizing the end of the era of deregulation and privatization of finance.

What does the professor say about the future of globalization?

The professor predicts that globalization will disappear within the next five years, with the term fading from political, economic, and journalistic discourse. This is due to growing protectionist policies and the decline of free-market, free-trade ideologies.

What impact does governmental intervention in financial markets have on capitalism?

Governmental intervention challenges the free-market ideology that has dominated capitalism. The professor suggests that while capitalism has historically opposed government interference, it often embraces it when it benefits capitalists, as seen during times of economic instability.

How does the professor view the relationship between government control and financial markets?

The professor argues that the notion of entirely free financial markets is a myth, and that governments have always played a role, often benefiting capitalists when necessary. He notes that we are moving toward more governmental control in financial markets, reversing the trend of deregulation.

What are the professor's thoughts on the possibility of a depression?

The professor believes that we may be heading toward a depression, as the current global economic situation is volatile and uncertain. This is compounded by the transition away from free-market policies toward more protectionist and government-controlled approaches.

What does the professor predict about protectionism in the future?

The professor predicts a significant rise in protectionist policies across the world, with the United States, Western Europe, Japan, and even China embracing protectionism. This marks a shift away from globalization and signals the beginning of a more inward-focused global economy.