IHSG CRASH !! SAHAM BUMN Segera REBOUND ? ROSAN ROESLANI JAMIN ITU !!

Summary

In this video, the speaker discusses the current state of Indonesia's economy, focusing on the recent downturn in the ISG stock market and the country’s fiscal challenges, including a large budget deficit and high public debt. Insights from government officials, such as ministers Erik Tohir and Rosan Roslani, suggest a cautious outlook for 2025. Despite the market's struggles, the speaker emphasizes long-term investment opportunities and highlights the importance of holding cash during periods of economic instability. The video critiques the inefficiency and corruption within state-owned enterprises (BUMN) while recommending a strategic, patient investment approach.

Takeaways

• 😀 The Indonesian Stock Index (ISE) has experienced a significant drop, currently at around 6,300, compared to nearly 8,000 in September 2024, indicating a severe market contraction.
• 😀 The drop in the ISE is attributed to a loss of investor confidence, both domestically and internationally, largely due to Indonesia's large fiscal deficit, which is close to 700 trillion IDR.
• 😀 There are concerns about the government's fiscal policies, especially the impact of budget cuts which could lead to short-term economic contraction and lower GDP growth, particularly in terms of consumption and investment.
• 😀 The speaker predicts a continued market crash in 2025, emphasizing the importance of holding cash and preparing for further economic downturns.
• 😀 According to the speaker, the main causes of the market crash are large government deficits, corruption, unstable regulations, and an unsustainable debt load.
• 😀 The upcoming administration's ability to tackle corruption and reduce inefficiency in state-owned enterprises (SOEs) is crucial for restoring investor confidence and reversing the market downturn.
• 😀 While short-term market fluctuations are expected, the speaker believes in the long-term rebound potential of the Indonesian market, especially as stocks become more affordable.
• 😀 The speaker also mentions that global financial institutions like MSCI have downgraded Indonesia's investment outlook, further signaling investor skepticism about the country's economic direction.
• 😀 The government's push for fiscal austerity is compared to global practices, including even wealthier nations like the U.S., highlighting the necessity of budget cuts to manage national debt.
• 😀 The importance of fundamental analysis in stock investment is emphasized, with a focus on companies with strong financials. However, the speaker expresses skepticism about the efficiency and governance of many Indonesian state-owned enterprises (SOEs).

Q & A

What is the current status of the Indonesian Stock Exchange (ISE) according to the speaker?

The Indonesian Stock Exchange (ISE) is currently at a low point, with the index hovering around 6,300, a significant drop from nearly 8,000 in September 2024. This drop is described as extreme and is considered a sign of economic challenges.

What is the main reason behind the decline in the Indonesian stock market, as explained in the video?

The decline in the stock market is largely attributed to a loss of investor confidence, both domestic and foreign. Key factors contributing to this include Indonesia's large fiscal deficit, high national debt, and concerns about economic contraction due to government spending cuts.

Why does the speaker believe that Indonesia’s economic situation will worsen in 2025?

The speaker predicts that 2025 will see a market crash due to continued economic contraction, caused by Indonesia's large fiscal deficit and the government's need for austerity measures. This could lead to reduced economic growth, making it difficult for the country to meet its GDP growth targets.

What role does corruption play in Indonesia's economic challenges, according to the speaker?

Corruption is seen as a major issue in Indonesia, with the speaker emphasizing that government inefficiency and widespread corruption contribute significantly to the country's fiscal problems. The speaker argues that without tackling corruption, Indonesia's economic recovery will be hindered.

What is the speaker’s view on the government's fiscal policies and its impact on the economy?

The speaker acknowledges that the government is trying to cut spending to address Indonesia’s fiscal deficit but believes that this will lead to economic contraction in the short term. The speaker also points out that while fiscal discipline is necessary, it is undermined by the inefficiency and corruption in government spending.

What prediction does the speaker make regarding investor behavior in 2025?

The speaker predicts that many investors will experience fear and panic due to the market crash in 2025. However, for seasoned investors, this is viewed as an opportunity to buy undervalued stocks, as market crashes can create long-term investment opportunities.

What is the speaker's stance on investing in state-owned enterprises (BUMN) in Indonesia?

While the speaker acknowledges that some BUMN companies, especially in banking, have strong fundamentals, they are critical of many other BUMN companies due to inefficiencies and corruption. The speaker questions whether investors can trust BUMN, given the perceived corruption and mismanagement.

How does the speaker differentiate between public and private sector banks in Indonesia?

The speaker expresses more trust in private sector banks, like Bank BCA, citing their better management and performance. In contrast, public sector banks (BUMN banks) are seen as less efficient, although they are monitored by multiple authorities, which somewhat mitigates risks.

What was the response of the Indonesian ministers at the 'Indonesia Economic Outlook 2025' event?

At the event, the ministers discussed the economic outlook for Indonesia in 2025, with Minister Erik Thohir of BUMN and Minister Rosan Roslani of Investment addressing concerns about the stock market and investor confidence. They highlighted that the decline in stock prices is partly due to external factors, such as MSCI downgrading Indonesia’s rating.

What long-term strategy does the speaker propose for Indonesia’s future economic outlook?

The speaker stresses the importance of focusing on long-term strategies, such as fighting corruption, improving governance, and creating a more stable regulatory environment. These steps are essential for rebuilding investor trust and ensuring sustainable economic growth for the future.