Where Will QuantumScape Be in 2026?

Summary

In this engaging discussion, Tyler and Jason reflect on the progress and future of QuantumScape, a company pioneering solid-state battery technology. They predict the company's trajectory over the next year, emphasizing the importance of its partnership with Volkswagen and the potential commercialization of its innovative battery tech in 2025. Despite some challenges, they highlight the company’s steady progress toward its goals and the impact it could have on the electric vehicle industry. While cautious about predicting stock movements, they anticipate new partnerships and continued volatility as QuantumScape strives to revolutionize battery performance and cost efficiency.

Takeaways

• 😀 QuantumScape is on track to begin commercial production of solid-state batteries by 2025, with the first products being sold to customers and installed in vehicles.
• 😀 Volkswagen's partnership with QuantumScape remains crucial, with plans to manufacture solid-state batteries through VW's Powerco subsidiary, providing 80 GWh of capacity.
• 😀 While QuantumScape has secured revenue from its partnership with VW, it is expected that large-scale commercialization and substantial revenue generation will occur in 2026.
• 😀 The leadership change at QuantumScape, with a new CEO from a precision manufacturing background, is seen as a positive step to optimize operations and scale production.
• 😀 The solid-state separator technology is progressing well, with positive feedback from multiple OEMs, laying the groundwork for further partnerships and future product launches.
• 😀 In 2025, the stock will likely be volatile, with incremental progress, particularly around quarterly earnings and production updates, but major gains expected in 2026.
• 😀 The upcoming commercial production is still subject to a scaling process, with possible delays in full production until later in 2025, likely in Q4.
• 😀 Companies like Toyota and Mercedes-Benz are also developing their own solid-state batteries, and QuantumScape may see additional partnerships emerge as these competitors expand.
• 😀 The key market strategy for QuantumScape is to initially target high-margin, low-volume luxury vehicles, similar to Tesla's strategy with the Model S, before moving to mass-market vehicles.
• 😀 Predictions for QuantumScape include the public announcement of new OEM partners by the end of 2025, particularly if their solid-state battery technology proves competitive against current lithium-ion batteries.

Q & A

What is the main focus of the discussion in this transcript?

The discussion revolves around predicting the future of QuantumScape, especially its commercial progress, partnerships, and technological milestones as it approaches 2025 and 2026.

What are some key challenges for QuantumScape in terms of commercialization?

One key challenge is transitioning from low-volume production of their solid-state battery technology to higher-volume, commercially viable production. This includes ensuring performance and cost efficiency to compete with current lithium-ion batteries.

How has QuantumScape been performing with their milestones so far?

QuantumScape has generally been successful in hitting their milestones. Their management has been transparent and realistic about goals, with consistent progress toward commercializing their solid-state battery technology.

What partnership is crucial to QuantumScape's future success?

The partnership with Volkswagen is crucial, especially as QuantumScape is working with Powerco, Volkswagen’s subsidiary, to manufacture their solid-state batteries. This relationship is key for scaling production and eventual market deployment.

How does the early market strategy of QuantumScape compare to Tesla's?

Similar to Tesla, QuantumScape is targeting the luxury vehicle market first, which allows for higher margins and smaller volumes. Tesla initially focused on the high-end Model S before expanding to more affordable options, a strategy that has proven successful.

What significant update did QuantumScape announce in December 2023?

In December 2023, QuantumScape announced the development of the Cobra manufacturing process, which is a significant step in scaling their solid-state battery production. This also includes their plans for initial commercial production in 2025.

What are the expectations for QuantumScape's financial performance in 2025?

Financial performance in 2025 is expected to remain somewhat flat, with some revenue from early partnerships but no major breakthroughs. The company is not expecting full-scale commercial production until 2026, though Q4 2025 might see notable progress.

What is the prediction for QuantumScape's stock in 2025?

The stock is predicted to remain volatile, with potential for significant fluctuations as the company nears its commercial production phase. Predicting an exact price movement is difficult, but there may be increased activity around major announcements or product milestones.

Why is the leadership change at QuantumScape considered a positive move?

The leadership change is viewed positively because the new CEO has a background in precision manufacturing, which is crucial for scaling up production. This is seen as an important step in preparing the company for mass commercialization of its technology.

What do the hosts predict about new partnerships for QuantumScape in 2025?

The hosts predict that more partnerships will be publicly announced in 2025, especially if QuantumScape’s solid-state battery technology proves to be competitive in cost and performance. They expect at least one or two new OEMs to disclose their partnership with the company by the end of the year.