Tesouro Direto: vale a pena vender com taxa baixa para recomprar com taxa de juros mais alta?

Summary

In this video, the speaker addresses the question of whether it's worth selling a Treasury bond with a lower interest rate to reinvest in one with a higher rate. Using a practical example, the speaker explains how market value fluctuations (mark-to-market) affect investment returns. The speaker also discusses how, even with higher current rates, selling a bond prematurely may not be advantageous due to the potential loss from market value adjustments. The video also promotes a free online event on building a secure investment portfolio to protect and grow wealth amidst economic uncertainties.

Takeaways

• 😀 The video discusses whether it's worth selling Treasury bonds with a lower interest rate to buy bonds with a higher interest rate in early 2025.
• 😀 The speaker emphasizes that many people, including students and followers, ask whether they should sell their older bonds with lower rates and buy new ones with higher rates.
• 😀 The main question posed is whether selling a bond with a lower rate (e.g., IPCA+5.26% purchased in 2022) to buy a new one with a higher rate (e.g., IPCA+7.7% in 2029) is a good financial move.
• 😀 The speaker uses the example of a student, Carlos Alberto, who holds a Treasury bond maturing in 2026 with an interest rate of IPCA+5.51%, wondering if it makes sense to sell it and buy a new one with a higher rate.
• 😀 A key point is the concept of market marking (marcação a mercado), which can affect the real return of an investment before maturity.
• 😀 When considering selling a bond before maturity, the speaker explains that market conditions may result in a lower return than expected, leading to a potential loss.
• 😀 The speaker shares their personal experience with a similar investment, showing that even if the bond rate is lower than current rates, holding onto it until maturity is often more beneficial.
• 😀 The concept of theoretical versus real returns is illustrated, showing that even if the current real return is lower than expected, it may increase to the contracted rate by maturity.
• 😀 The speaker advises checking the current rates for bond redemption (resgatar) before selling, to avoid making a losing transaction by selling at a higher rate only to buy at a lower one.
• 😀 The speaker concludes that selling a bond at a loss due to market marking and reinvesting in a bond with a lower rate generally doesn't make financial sense unless the investment horizon is significantly long.

Q & A

What is the core question discussed in the video?

The main question discussed in the video is whether it is worth selling existing Treasury Direct bonds with lower interest rates to buy new bonds offering higher rates, despite the potential loss from market adjustments.

What is 'mark-to-market' (marcação a mercado) in the context of Treasury Direct bonds?

Mark-to-market refers to the adjustment of a bond's value based on current market conditions. When market interest rates increase, the market value of a bond purchased at a lower rate decreases, leading to a temporary loss in its value.

Why is it important to consider 'mark-to-market' before selling a bond?

It is important to consider mark-to-market because selling a bond before its maturity could result in accepting a loss if the current market value is lower than the price you paid, especially if interest rates have risen since your purchase.

What does the video suggest regarding the example of Carlos Alberto's Treasury IPCA 2026 bond?

The video suggests that Carlos Alberto should not sell his Treasury IPCA 2026 bond with a lower rate to buy a new bond with a higher rate. Despite the current loss in market value, holding onto the bond until maturity would ensure he receives the original agreed-upon return.

What is the importance of comparing 'rescue rates' when selling a bond?

Comparing 'rescue rates' helps determine if selling a bond makes financial sense. If the rescue rate (the rate offered for selling a bond) is lower than the rate you initially contracted, it may not be advantageous to sell and reinvest in a new bond.

How does the graph in the Treasury Direct website illustrate the impact of market value adjustments?

The graph shows two lines: the dark blue line represents the theoretical return if the bond is held until maturity, while the light blue line represents the actual return adjusted for market conditions. A gap between the two lines indicates a loss in return due to market value adjustments.

Why does the video recommend holding onto bonds with lower rates even if higher rates are available in the market?

The video recommends holding onto bonds with lower rates because, despite current market adjustments leading to lower short-term returns, the bond will eventually yield the contracted rate if held until maturity. Selling prematurely might prevent you from receiving the full contracted return.

What factors should an investor consider when deciding whether to sell a bond before its maturity?

An investor should consider the market conditions, including the current interest rates, the potential loss due to market adjustments, and whether the new bonds offer a better long-term return, taking into account the time until maturity.

How do higher rates in the market affect the value of an existing bond?

When interest rates rise, the value of existing bonds typically falls. This is because new bonds issued at the higher rates become more attractive, which reduces the market value of bonds with lower rates.

What is the suggested course of action if an investor wants to reinvest in a higher-rate bond?

If an investor wants to reinvest in a higher-rate bond, the video suggests carefully analyzing the current market conditions, especially the rescue rates. If the rescue rate is lower than the new bond's rate, it is generally not worth selling the current bond.