Goldman Sachs Sees Further Upside Momentum for Japanese Stocks
Summary
TLDRこのビデオスクリプトでは、特に日本市場において投資家が中国や他市場への資金流動を再評価し、中国への資金が増加していると指摘。日本市場は1四半期で好調だったが、健全な調整が見られ、今後も成長が期待される。一方、韓国は企業改革と株主へのリターンの改善を通じて市場への過剰なネガティブさが示されている。インドネシアはマクロ経済変化に過剰に反応し、市場が過剰に売られており、今後数ヶ月で回復が見込まれると述べている。
Takeaways
- 🌟 中国市场自1月22日低点以来上涨约30%,吸引了投资者的注意,导致资金从日本和印度部分转移至中国。
- 🔍 日本市场经历了健康的回调,目前估值回落至略低于50倍市盈率,预计今年收益增长超过10%,明年可能达到高个位数,因此从市盈率增长角度来看,日本市场看起来合理。
- ⚠️ 日本市场的一大风险是日元汇率,如果美联储维持高利率时间延长,可能导致美元走强,对日本股市构成上行风险。
- 📈 韩国市场正在进行公司治理和股东回报的改革,市场可能对这些积极改革的进展过于悲观,目前估值仅为1倍市净率,而收益恢复在该地区最强。
- 🚫 韩国的卖空禁令可能会在适当的时候取消,虽然具体时间尚不确定,但改革的方向是正确的。
- 📊 印尼市场在宏观变化下表现不佳,被认为超卖,主要是由于印尼盾的压力和银行股的卖压,但基本面依然坚实。
- 💡 印尼的银行股占MSCI指数的62%,尽管近期表现不佳,但分析师对银行股的基本面保持信心。
- 🌐 投资者在美国的对话中频繁提到资金流向的变化,尤其是对中国市场的重新评估。
- 📉 印度市场也出现了资金流出,与日本类似,市场可能需要重新评估其投资机会。
- 🔑 除了日本和印度,还有其他资金池可以流入中国市场,市场并非封闭循环。
- 🔄 美联储的利率政策是影响日元和日本股市的关键因素,市场预期美联储将在7月或之后开始降息。
Q & A
最近の日本市場の動向について教えてください。
-最近の日本市場は、1四半期の非常に良い成績を挙げた後、健康的な引き下げと再生のトレンドを見せています。市場は現在、安定し始め、再び勢力を回復しています。
中国市場への投資資金の流れはどのように変化していますか?
-中国市場は大幅な反発を示しており、1月22日の最安値からの上昇率は約30%です。これにより、中国への注目が高まり、日本やインドからの資金の流れが中国に移行していると見られます。
日本円の動向はどのように日本市場に影響を与えると思われますか?
-日本円は日本の株式市場物語のAchilles腱と見なされます。連邦準備制度が長期間高い利動率を維持する懸念があれば、ドルが強まる可能性があり、日本円にも影響を及ぼす可能性があります。
韓国市場における改革政策の方向性についての見解をお聞かせください。
-韓国は企業改革と株主保護のための企業統治の改善を積極的に推進しています。市場はその方向性に対してあまり肯定的ではないようですが、私たちはその流れが正しいと思われます。
韓国における相続税法改正の可能性についての見解はありますか?
-選挙の結果、相続税法改正の可能性は低くなっていますが、反対派も改革を支持しているため、株主保護のための企業法の変更が進む可能性はあります。
インドネシア市場が売り過剰になっているとのことですが、その理由は何ですか?
-インドネシア市場はマクロ経済の変化により売り過剰になっていると見られています。特にインドネシアルピアに対する圧力と銀行業界における売出の混雑が影響を与えていると思われます。
中国市場の最近の上昇率はどのくらいですか?
-中国市場は1月22日の最安値からの上昇率が約30%となっています。
日本市場の評価は現在どのような水準にありますか?
-日本市場の評価は現在、時価総額の50倍をわずかに下回る水準に戻っており、今年の利益成長率は10%以上、来年は高単位桁の成長を見込まれています。
韓国市場における短売り禁止の将来的な見通しはありますか?
-短売り禁止がいつ解除されるかの具体的な答えは持っていませんが、韓国は適切な時期にそれを解除する意向があると示唆しています。
韓国市場の企業収益の見通しはどのようですか?
-韓国市場の企業収益は非常に強い回復を見せており、今年は利益が最も強いリージョンで回復していると予想されています。
インドネシア市場が売り過剰になっていると判断する根拠は何ですか?
-マクロ経済の変化に比べて、インドネシア市場は売り過剰と判断されています。特に銀行業界における売出の混雑とインドネシアルピアへの圧力が影響を与えていると見られます。
Outlines
📉 日本市場の調整と中国への資金流動
第1段落では、日本市場における資金流動が焦点です。投資家が中国市場への投資を再評価し、日本からの資金が中国に流動する傾向が見られます。中国市場は1月22日の最安値からの約30%上昇し、注目を集めています。一方で、日本市場は1四半期で非常によく進んだ後、健全な調整を経験し、再び着実にtractionを取り戻していると見なされています。市場の評価は、収益のわずか50倍未満に戻り、今年の収益成長は10%以上、来年は高単独桁成長を見込まれています。日本市場は基本的な底上げ企業改革ストーリーを通じて合理的な評価で提供しており、さらに上向きの潜在力があるとされています。ただし、日本の円がそのリスク要因となり、連邦準備制度が長期にわたって金利を維持するかどうかがそれに影響を与える可能性があると指摘されています。
📈 インドネシア市場の過剰売却と回復の可能性
第2段落では、インドネシア市場が過剰に売却されていると主張しています。マクロ経済の変化が3月と4月に始まり、長期金利の上昇、ドルの強化、原材料価格の上昇、地政学的リスクの増加、そして中国と米国の成長期待の高まりに伴い、市場はこれらの要因に反応しています。中国は低価格と政策面のポジティブな動きから予想以上のパフォーマンスを示しましたが、インドネシアはマクロ経済の変化に最も大きく影響を受けており、ファンダメンタルズに基づくトレードを下回っています。インドネシアルピアは圧力を受けており、銀行インドネシアによる利回りの予防的反発が市場に衝撃を与えています。また、銀行株の売出による株式の混雑も影響していますが、銀行分析家がインドネシアを訪れたところ、ファンダメンタルズは依然として強いと報告しています。市場は過剰に売却されていると見なされており、今後数ヶ月で回復する可能性があります。
Mindmap
Keywords
💡インベストメント
💡中国市場
💡日本円
💡企業改革
💡利益成長
💡韓国市場
💡株主保護
💡利益回復
💡インドネシア市場
💡マクロ経済
Highlights
Pause in Japanese market exuberance possibly due to investors reallocating funds to China and reassessing opportunities.
Flows out of India observed, along with a shift in investor focus towards China's market rally.
China's market has rallied strongly, attracting attention with a 30% increase from January 22nd low.
Diversification of capital pools beyond China, Japan, and India is emphasized.
Japanese market pullback viewed as a healthy correction with potential for renewed growth.
Fundamentals in Japan support a reasonable valuation with expected earnings growth above 10% this year.
Corporate reform story in Japan is favored without high cost.
Japanese yen's strength could be a risk if the Federal Reserve maintains higher rates for longer.
Expectation that the Federal Reserve will ease in July, contrary to concerns of prolonged high rates.
Korea's market reforms and improved corporate governance are undervalued by the market.
Korea's short selling ban and its potential lifting are discussed, indicating a positive direction for market reforms.
Indonesia's market is considered oversold due to macroeconomic changes and currency pressures.
Indonesia's significant underperformance compared to macroeconomic fundamentals.
Impact of increased rates by Bank Indonesia and its effect on the equity market.
Oversold condition in Indonesia's banking sector despite strong fundamentals.
Confidence in Indonesia's banking sector as a favorite for investment.
Potential for a market snap back in Indonesia in the coming months.
Transcripts
[CC may contain inaccuracies] For Japan in particular, the sort of pause that we've seen in the exuberance.
Do you see that as because investors are putting flows back into markets like
China and reassessing what some of the other opportunities are?
We've kind of seen the flows out of India as well.
Yeah, that's definitely been a theme which has come up in a number of my
conversations. I was in the U.S.
just recently seeing investors there, and that's a topic of conversation which
has come up quite frequently. So as China has rallied strongly and
it's up about 30% off the January 22nd low, that's attracted some attention.
And there has been some diversion of flows from Japan and India, as you
mentioned, to to China. I hasten to add that that that we need
to think about things in a broader context.
It's not as though we're operating in a closed circle where the only money
that's available to go to China, for example, has to come from China, from
either Japan or from or from India. There are other pools of capital as
well, So I would just make that point. But at the margin, I think there has
been some diversion of attention and flows from those two markets into China.
For Japan specifically, we would regard the pullback that we've seen as, I guess
you could call it, the pause that refreshes.
In other words, the market had done very, very well in the first quarter
that what we consider to be a healthy pullback and seems like a stabilized is
beginning to regain some traction. And I think there's fundamental
underpinnings there in that valuations have come back to slightly below 50
times earnings. We think earnings will grow comfortably
above 10% this year and submitted perhaps high single digits next year.
So just from a pure multiple to earnings growth perspective, Japan certainly
looks reasonable and that means you're really getting the bottom up corporate
reform story, which we're very much in favor of.
You really getting that without paying too much for it.
So we still think there is further upside momentum or potential in Japan
after the market takes its pause. The one thing I would add there,
however, is that if there's one risk or an Achilles heel, so to speak, in the
story, it would be the Japanese yen. And I think it cycles back to the Fed
and whether there's concerns about the Fed staying higher for longer.
Not our view. We think the Fed will start to ease in
July or perhaps a little bit later. But we think there are two easings
coming this year. But if that's not true and the Fed does
stay higher for longer, then this suggests the dollar could say also
stronger. And that poses some upside risk to the
Japanese yen. And that could be some could become
somewhat dysfunctional for the Japanese equity market story.
That's the one thing I would point out in the overall positive investment case
that we need to continue to monitor. And Tim, where else?
We've seen market reforms coming through his career, of course.
And you've been bullish on that market for quite a period now.
We do see Korea, though, carrying out other reform policies or looking at ways
that they can mature their market there. And one of those,
I guess, mooted policies really comes down to their short selling ban.
Do you have any views on that policy? What are your expectations around?
Do you see them keeping it in place beyond June?
If so. Well, it's a good question.
I don't I don't have a specific answer as far as when they might be lifted.
But there have been indications that they do intend to lift it in due course.
So I think the direction of travel is is going to be in the right direction,
although the timing of it, as far as I'm aware, is still somewhat uncertain.
But I think that the I just like to go up sort of one level there from that
specific instance to the broader topic of overall reform.
And here's where we think the market is being perhaps overly negative or
petulant about not giving enough credit for, again, the direction of travel that
Korea is taking in terms of corporate reform and just broader improvement in
corporate governance and shareholder returns.
And we've really gone from basically no official program 2 to 1.
So that's a positive change. The market was concerned that there
wasn't enough specificity. And also with the outcome of the
election and there being a split government, that the chances of a change
to inheritance tax law has come down significantly.
You know, that's true. But it's also important to note that the
opposition is also in favor of of of reform.
They are very much, as are progressives and liberals and therefore on the side
of the smaller shareholder. And so there's a desire to change
corporate law somewhat to engender more shareholder protection.
So the point I'm making here is that there's actually a very strong direction
of travel in terms of positive reforms in corporate governance and shareholder
returns. And that is something which you're not
paying for in the market at one point, one times price to book, especially when
earnings are recovering the strongest in the region this year.
We and consensus of revised up numbers from 60% this year.
We're at 70%, consensus at 80%. So you've got very, very strong
improvement in corporate earnings, which ought to be coming through in the first
quarter. You've got an air exposure theme on top
of that. And then on top of that, you've got the
corporate reform stories. So we think that all that at current
valuations and with an entry point of roughly 1360 on the US dollar current
rate. We think all that is a pretty compelling
investment case to the positive side. I'm just taking a look at your notes
now, Tim. And I'm seeing your contrary view is
that Indonesia is oversold. Can you can you shed some light on that
one? Yeah, absolutely.
So I guess the way to describe it is maybe two or three key points.
One, there've been a whole series of macro changes which have taken place
really starting in in March and April in terms of higher for longer rates, both
in the short and long end, stronger dollar increase in commodity prices,
increasing geopolitical risk, and then also an increase in growth expectations
for the U.S. and for China.
So we've done some macro modeling to put all those together and to see how
markets might trade them, and then we could see what would actually happen in
terms of price performance and see where markets have either over or under traded
their fundamentals. On the positive side, China has done
better than you would have thought. I think that's a function of starting
conditions, low prices, as well as the positive moves from a policy perspective
on property. In Indonesia's case, Indonesia is
significantly under traded, it's under trade and the macro changes to the
greatest extent. And we think that's really two things.
One, there's some pressure that's come onto the Indonesian rupiah and there was
a precautionary reactionary increase in rates by Bank Indonesia, which our
economists were expecting but was surprise to the market.
And I think that's been something where the uncertainty of the currency has had
some weighing effect on the equity market.
The second thing is kind of more technical, where banks in Indonesia
account at least for the MSCI index that we follow account for 62% of the market
capitalization. And there are some selling in the banks
because of shareholder crowdedness. And we're very popular trade and with
results coming in. Okay, but not perhaps, you know,
fantastic. There were some selling pressure on
them. We've actually just gone.
Our banks analyst had a trip in Indonesia just last week and we're
confident in the fundamentals. That's still our favorite banking
sector. So we think the market has been oversold
there and we think it could be a snap back as we go through the next
several months.
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