Tuesday Update Premium Video

Summary

The video offers a comprehensive financial analysis, focusing on key market trends and projections. The speaker is bullish on Tesla's potential growth, with an expected price target of $600 by mid-2025. They discuss the impact of the dollar's strength on gold and silver, predicting a possible recovery for these metals in 2025. The speaker also highlights the significance of bond yields and interest rates, particularly the 10-year yield, in influencing the broader market. Finally, the video touches on Ethereum’s supply post-merge and its potential market impact, advising caution but also noting opportunities for long-term investors.

Takeaways

• 😀 Tesla is macro bullish, with a price target of around $600, potentially by mid-2025, similar to the 2017 cycle.
• 😀 Despite short-term optimism for Tesla, there is a possibility of a pullback in 2026, followed by a higher low.
• 😀 Gold and silver have underperformed recently due to the dollar rally, but are expected to improve in 2025 as the dollar rally ends.
• 😀 The 10-year Treasury yield is expected to top in early 2025, which could signal a bond market rally, particularly for TLT (long-term bonds).
• 😀 Higher yields, especially the 30-year Treasury yield, could act as a headwind for risk assets like stocks and bonds.
• 😀 Economic data such as the Producer Price Index (PPI) and upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) reports will play a critical role in determining the bond market's direction.
• 😀 If CPI comes in higher than expected, it may cause the 10-year yield to rally further, impacting the broader market.
• 😀 The bond market's performance and interest rates are closely linked, with the 10-year yield topping potentially marking the start of a bond rally and a more favorable environment for risk assets.
• 😀 Ethereum (ETH) could experience significant movement as it approaches its pre-merge supply, but any potential price drops could present a good buying opportunity.
• 😀 Despite Ethereum's potential, Bitcoin has outperformed Ethereum in the current market cycle, and it remains a preferred investment, with a small ETH allocation being acceptable.

Q & A

What is the speaker's outlook on Tesla's stock price in the coming years?

The speaker is macro bullish on Tesla, predicting that its stock could eventually reach around $600, potentially by mid-2025, based on past patterns. However, the speaker cautions that there could be a pullback in the future (around 2026), followed by a higher low before further gains.

Why has gold and silver not performed well recently according to the speaker?

Gold and silver have not seen significant movement because of the strong rally in the U.S. dollar. Typically, when the dollar strengthens, these metals do not perform well. However, the speaker expects this dollar rally to end in early 2025, which could lead to better performance for gold.

What is the significance of the 10-year yield in the context of risk assets?

The 10-year yield plays a crucial role in the performance of risk assets like stocks. The speaker suggests that if the 10-year yield peaks, it could mark the bottom for bonds like TLT. A rising 10-year yield is considered a headwind for risk assets, and its top could signal a more sustained rally in stocks.

What is the suggested strategy for investing in TLT (long-term bonds)?

The speaker recommends dollar-cost averaging (DCA) into TLT, particularly if the yield on long-term bonds continues to rise and eventually falls, creating opportunities for buying. The key is to wait for the right moment when the yield peaks and bonds reach their bottom.

How do bond yields, such as the 30-year yield, impact the overall market?

The 30-year yield is nearing 5%, a level associated with negative market conditions. A rising long-term yield acts as a headwind for risk assets like stocks, making it difficult for them to sustain long-term gains. The speaker emphasizes that watching the yield curve is important for predicting the market's direction.

What is the relationship between the 10-year yield and the S&P 500 according to the speaker?

The speaker notes that the S&P 500 did not bottom until the 10-year yield topped in 2023. This suggests a strong correlation between the movement of the 10-year yield and the direction of the broader equity market. A peak in the 10-year yield could signal the bottom for stocks.

What data points is the speaker focusing on to forecast the market's direction?

The speaker is closely monitoring economic data such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Producer Price Index (PPI). These reports are crucial for understanding inflation trends and predicting movements in interest rates, particularly the 10-year yield, which impacts the market.

What does the speaker expect from Ethereum's supply in relation to the pre-merge level?

The speaker has been tracking Ethereum's supply approaching its pre-merge level. While this might make headlines, the speaker believes it could present an opportunity rather than a cause for concern. If Ethereum experiences a sell-off, it may create a good buying opportunity, especially if it drops to the low regression band.

Why does the speaker still advocate for having Bitcoin as the majority in a crypto portfolio?

The speaker emphasizes that Bitcoin has outperformed Ethereum in the current cycle, making it the dominant cryptocurrency in their portfolio. Despite Ethereum's potential, Bitcoin remains the safer and more profitable investment for the time being, with Ethereum viewed as a secondary holding.

What does the speaker predict for the future of Ethereum's performance?

The speaker suggests that Ethereum's performance may lag behind Bitcoin in the current cycle, but it could present opportunities if it experiences a sell-off. Despite its underperformance so far, Ethereum could still offer value in the long term, particularly if it drops to more attractive price levels.