Por que a Gerdau está caindo tanto? Cilada ou Oportunidade? GGBR4 ou GOAU4? Gerdau para dividendos?

Summary

The video analyzes Gerdau's stock performance, focusing on its recent decline and potential recovery. Despite a 30% drop in its stock price since January 2023, Gerdau remains financially strong with solid dividends and low debt. The company's struggles are attributed to falling steel prices and increased competition from Chinese steel imports. However, Gerdau benefits from recent government tariffs on Chinese steel, which may improve its market position. With positive trends in exports and a recovering North American market, Gerdau’s prospects are gradually improving, though its cyclical nature makes it a more volatile investment.

Takeaways

• 😀 Gerdau (GGBR4) has experienced a significant drop in stock price, falling 9.23% over the past year, and 30% from its peak in January 2023.
• 😀 Despite this decline, Gerdau still offers a strong dividend yield, with GGBR4 at 7.11% and GOAU4 at 13%.
• 😀 Gerdau is a leading steel producer with a global presence, but its stock price is highly influenced by the cyclical nature of steel prices.
• 😀 Steel pricing has dropped significantly, partly due to global imports, particularly from China, which affects Gerdau's profitability.
• 😀 The Brazilian government may take protective measures, like tariffs on Chinese steel, which could help domestic producers like Gerdau.
• 😀 Gerdau’s financials remain solid with a low debt-to-EBITDA ratio (0.40) and strong cash flow, providing some stability despite market challenges.
• 😀 The company’s stock is priced at low multiples: GGBR4 has a Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio of 5.9x, while GOAU4 is at 5x, suggesting potential undervaluation.
• 😀 Investors should monitor Gerdau’s quarterly earnings reports, as they will provide insights into how the company is adapting to market conditions and government actions.
• 😀 Gerdau's international business, especially in North America, may provide a hedge against weak domestic performance, especially in the automotive sector.
• 😀 Gerdau could be a good investment opportunity if the steel market recovers, but its cyclical nature makes it more suitable for short-term or value-focused investors rather than long-term holders.

Q & A

What are the two main stocks associated with Gerdau, and how do they differ?

The two main stocks associated with Gerdau are Gerdau S.A. (GGBR4) and Metalúrgica Gerdau (GOAU4). GGBR4 represents the operating business, while GOAU4 is a holding company. The key difference is that GOAU4 typically trades at a discount because it's a holding company, which owns shares in Gerdau S.A. and other assets. GOAU4 has historically seen a smaller decline in price compared to GGBR4.

What is the reason for Gerdau's stock price decline despite paying good dividends?

Gerdau's stock price has been declining due to several factors, including a fall in steel prices, increasing importation of cheap Chinese steel, and the overall cyclical nature of the steel industry. Although Gerdau offers good dividends, the lower steel prices and market conditions have affected its profitability, leading to a decline in stock value.

How is the P/E ratio relevant in evaluating Gerdau's stock?

The P/E ratio is a key indicator used to assess whether a stock is undervalued or overvalued. For Gerdau, the P/E ratio is currently 5.9 for GGBR4, which is relatively low compared to historical averages. A lower P/E ratio suggests the stock might be undervalued, but this should be compared with industry peers and historical trends to get a clearer picture.

Why is the price-to-book ratio (P/B) significant when analyzing Gerdau?

The price-to-book ratio (P/B) helps investors assess whether a stock is priced reasonably relative to the company’s book value. For Gerdau, GGBR4 has a P/B of 0.72, which is below the average historical P/B. A lower P/B indicates that the stock is trading below its book value, which could signal a potential buying opportunity, especially if the company has strong fundamentals.

What is the current state of the steel market, and how is it affecting Gerdau?

The steel market is facing challenges, including a decline in steel prices and increasing imports of cheap Chinese steel. This puts pressure on companies like Gerdau, which produce high-quality steel, as they must compete with lower-priced imports. However, Gerdau is benefiting from government measures aimed at protecting the Brazilian steel industry from unfair competition, such as tariffs on Chinese steel.

What government measures are benefiting Gerdau?

Gerdau is benefiting from recent government measures that aim to protect the Brazilian steel industry, particularly against the influx of cheap Chinese steel. These measures include increased tariffs on Chinese steel imports, which help Gerdau and other domestic producers maintain their market share and profitability.

How is Gerdau performing financially despite the market challenges?

Despite market challenges, Gerdau is performing well financially. The company has a strong balance sheet, with a low debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 0.40, indicating that it is in a comfortable position to manage its debt. Additionally, Gerdau has been reporting profits, with the most recent quarterly profit at 1.2 billion reais, and it maintains a good dividend payout policy.

What factors suggest that Gerdau’s stock might be undervalued?

Several factors suggest that Gerdau's stock might be undervalued: it has low P/E and P/B ratios compared to its historical averages, a high dividend yield (7.11% for GGBR4), and a solid financial position with low debt. Additionally, the stock is currently trading at a discount, which could indicate that it is undervalued, especially if the company recovers from the current market downturn.

What are the risks associated with investing in Gerdau?

The main risks associated with investing in Gerdau include the cyclical nature of the steel industry, which is influenced by global steel prices, economic conditions, and demand for steel. Additionally, the company faces competition from cheaper imports, particularly from China. Although government protection measures are in place, there is still a risk that external factors could affect Gerdau's profitability.

How does Gerdau’s performance compare to its industry peers, such as Usiminas and CSN?

When compared to its industry peers like Usiminas and CSN, Gerdau stands out due to its stronger financial position. Gerdau has better key metrics, such as a higher return on equity (12% compared to Usiminas’ 4%) and a more favorable debt-to-EBIT ratio. These financial strengths give Gerdau a competitive edge in the sector, despite facing similar market conditions.