"Think Twice" by Michael J. Mauboussin | BOOK REVIEW! The Book On How To Improve Decision Making

Summary

In *Think Twice*, Michael J. Moe explores how evolutionary biases shape our decision-making, often hindering success in the modern world. The book reveals how emotional responses to stories, rather than logic, drive our choices. Through compelling examples, such as a cancer treatment dilemma, Moe shows how people prioritize emotional anecdotes over statistical probabilities. While offering solutions to counter these biases, the book underscores the challenge of overcoming deeply ingrained instincts. A thought-provoking yet academically dense read, *Think Twice* provides valuable tools for recognizing and addressing flawed decision-making processes.

Takeaways

• 😀 *Think Twice* by Michael J. Moe explores how evolutionary instincts are not well-suited for modern decision-making.
• 😀 The book is recommended by Tim Ferriss and focuses on how cognitive biases and emotional reactions impact decision-making.
• 😀 One of the key points is that the brain often prioritizes emotional stories over logical data when making decisions.
• 😀 A notable example in the book shows that patients are more likely to choose a 50% success cancer treatment over a 90% success one if it's paired with a negative anecdote.
• 😀 This illustrates how humans are wired to react emotionally to stories, rather than making decisions based on cold, hard numbers.
• 😀 Another example shows that patients are more likely to choose a less effective treatment if it comes with a positive anecdote, even when the numbers suggest otherwise.
• 😀 The book discusses how many decisions, whether in investments, time management, or everyday life, are heavily influenced by cognitive biases.
• 😀 Moe explains that these biases are so deeply rooted in our brains that people often don't realize when they're making irrational decisions.
• 😀 The book offers strategies to combat these biases, although Moe acknowledges that changing these deep-seated instincts is not easy.
• 😀 Despite being somewhat academic and not the most entertaining read, the book offers eye-opening insights into decision-making and cognitive biases.
• 😀 Overall, *Think Twice* challenges readers to step outside their natural thinking patterns and recognize when their brain is leading them astray.

Q & A

What is the main theme of the book *Think Twice* by Michael J. Moe?

The main theme of the book is how evolution has shaped our brain to make decisions based on instincts and emotions rather than rational thinking, and how this can lead to poor decision-making in the modern world.

How does the book explain the impact of storytelling on decision-making?

The book explains that stories, particularly negative ones, have a stronger emotional impact on the brain than raw data or numbers, influencing decisions in ways that may not align with logical reasoning.

Can you give an example from the book that illustrates how our instincts affect decision-making?

Yes, the book shares a story where patients with cancer were given two treatment options—one with a 50% success rate and the other with 90%. After hearing a negative anecdote about the 90% treatment, most patients chose the 50% option, despite the higher success rate of the 90% treatment.

What does the book suggest about how we make decisions based on emotions versus logic?

The book suggests that our brains are more likely to make decisions based on emotional responses and associations (positive or negative) rather than purely on logical data, often leading us to make irrational choices.

Why do people often not realize when they are making a bad decision, according to the book?

People often don't realize they're making a bad decision because the instincts and cognitive biases that drive these choices are so deeply ingrained in the brain. These patterns of thinking feel natural, so we don't always recognize when they are leading us astray.

What role do cognitive biases play in our everyday decisions?

Cognitive biases influence decisions in all aspects of life, from personal choices to business decisions. These biases can lead to poor judgment, as people are driven by emotions and ingrained thought patterns rather than objective reasoning.

What types of decision-making situations does the book address?

The book addresses a variety of decision-making situations, including those related to investments, poker, time management, and even day-to-day life, showing how instincts can impact our choices across different contexts.

Does the book offer any solutions for overcoming cognitive biases?

Yes, the book provides strategies to help people recognize and bypass their cognitive biases, although it acknowledges that it is not easy to do so, as these biases are deeply rooted in the brain.

What is meant by 'seeing the other side of the matrix' in the context of the book?

Seeing the other side of the matrix refers to becoming aware of the cognitive biases and decision-making traps that influence us, allowing us to see beyond our natural instincts and make more rational choices.

Why does the reviewer recommend this book despite its academic nature?

The reviewer recommends the book because it provides powerful insights into human behavior and decision-making. While it's academic and sometimes dry, the knowledge gained from it can be incredibly eye-opening and valuable for improving decision-making skills.