Russia's Awful Week Could Not Have Come at a Worse Time for the Kremlin

Summary

Russia is facing a series of escalating crises, and the timing couldn’t be worse with the incoming Trump administration. From nuclear threats met with indifference by the West to devastating casualties and a plummeting ruble, the Kremlin is under pressure. Protests erupt in Georgia, and Syria’s rebels make surprising advances, threatening Russia’s military assets. These events signal Russia’s increasing vulnerability, which could prompt aggressive foreign policy moves from Trump, aiming for a signature achievement. This video dissects these crises in order of impact, showing how Russia’s weakness is shaping global geopolitics.

Takeaways

• 😀 The West largely ignored Russia's nuclear threats, with no significant changes in policy despite warnings from Putin about using an unstoppable missile.
• 😀 Russia's highest daily casualty count in the war occurred on November 28, with over 2,000 casualties, though this was somewhat expected given Russia's military strategy in Ukraine.
• 😀 The Russian ruble experienced a significant decline in value, dropping from 1 USD = 100 rubles to 94 rubles, though the long-term trajectory of the ruble was already forecasted to weaken.
• 😀 Russia's economic troubles are primarily driven by weak non-military sectors, with high military expenditures and rising inflation hurting overall economic stability.
• 😀 The Kremlin faces challenges from sanctions, especially with Gazprombank being targeted, leading to further instability in Russia's economy and financial system.
• 😀 Protests erupted in Georgia after the government delayed EU integration talks, echoing past events that led to the 2014 Ukraine protests, with a growing pro-European sentiment in the country.
• 😀 Russia's inability to intervene effectively in Georgia, along with the absence of a significant military presence in the region, highlights its overstretched resources due to the Ukraine war.
• 😀 The Syrian Civil War has escalated, with Russia's role in protecting Assad's regime being jeopardized by a sudden offensive from rebel forces, threatening Russia’s key Tartus naval facility.
• 😀 Rebel forces in Syria, especially HTS, gained significant ground in November 2023, capturing large swathes of territory, raising concerns about the security of Russian military interests in the region.
• 😀 The timing of these crises is particularly disastrous for Russia, as they occur while the incoming Trump administration is deciding on its foreign policy, which could pressure Russia further.
• 😀 The situation in Russia, both economically and militarily, presents a unique opportunity for Trump to assert foreign policy dominance, potentially mirroring Reagan’s approach to the Soviet Union in the 1980s.

Q & A

What are the five major pieces of bad news for Russia covered in the video?

The five major pieces of bad news for Russia discussed in the video are: 1) The collective non-response to Russia's nuclear threats, 2) Russia's high casualty figures, 3) The cratering value of the ruble, 4) The escalating situation in Georgia, and 5) The ongoing offensive in Syria.

Why did the West largely ignore Russia’s nuclear threats according to the video?

The West largely ignored Russia’s nuclear threats because the missile strike from Russia, while hyped, did not provide new information that changed the strategic landscape. The West had already factored in these kinds of missile strikes as part of the ongoing conflict, leading to a lack of substantive response from Western leaders.

What was the significance of Russia's high casualty figures reported by the Ukrainian military?

Russia's high casualty figures, reported as 2030 on November 28, are significant because they represent the highest daily toll for Russia in the war so far. However, this figure should be taken with a grain of salt, as the Ukrainian military may have an incentive to overreport. Despite the high numbers, it reflects the ongoing intensity of the conflict, with Russia making territorial gains in Ukraine.

What economic factors contributed to the ruble’s decline in value?

The ruble’s decline in value was primarily due to weak non-military sectors in Russia's economy, sanctions, and the Russian government's substantial spending on military materiel. Additionally, sanctions targeting Gazprombank, Russia’s major untarnished financial institution, triggered a sharp drop in the ruble’s value, although it partially rebounded afterward.

Why did the fall in ruble value not cause major unrest in Russia?

The fall in ruble value did not cause major unrest in Russia because the average Russian citizen doesn't directly track the exchange rate in dollars. Despite inflation, pay raises in the labor market helped offset some of the economic pressures. The main concern was for the Russian elites, whose ability to spend abroad was reduced by the ruble’s lower value.

What is the geopolitical context behind the growing protests in Georgia?

The growing protests in Georgia stem from tensions between factions advocating closer ties with Russia and those pushing for Europe. Protests erupted after the pro-Russia party, Georgia Dream, won elections and delayed EU integration talks until 2028. This mirrors the political scenario in Ukraine prior to the 2014 Euromaidan protests, which led to the current conflict with Russia.

How has the war in Ukraine affected Russia’s ability to intervene in Georgia?

The war in Ukraine has stretched Russia’s military resources thin, making it difficult for Russia to intervene effectively in Georgia. This vulnerability has emboldened groups like Azerbaijan, which made moves in Nagorno-Karabakh while Russia was preoccupied with Ukraine. Protests in Georgia are seen as a consequence of this diminished Russian influence.

What is the strategic importance of Russia's Tartus naval base in Syria?

Russia's Tartus naval base in Syria is strategically important as it is Russia's only port on the Mediterranean Sea. It provides Russia with a foothold in the region and ensures naval access, which is vital for maintaining its military and political influence in the Middle East. However, ongoing rebel offensives in Syria threaten the security of this base.

What triggered the recent escalation of conflict in Syria?

The recent escalation of conflict in Syria was triggered by an offensive from HTS (the military arm of the Syrian Salvation Government), which took advantage of Russia's preoccupation with the war in Ukraine. The rebel forces made significant territorial gains, including an attack on Aleppo, putting Russia’s strategic assets in the region at risk, particularly the Tartus naval base.

Why does the timing of these events make them worse for Russia?

The timing of these events is particularly bad for Russia because they coincide with a period of transition in the United States, with Trump preparing to enter the White House. Trump is known for seeking foreign policy achievements, and Russia's vulnerabilities could tempt him to push for a deal or action that exploits Russia's current weakness, potentially worsening the geopolitical situation for Moscow.