Understanding the rise of China | Martin Jacques

Summary

This insightful talk explores China's rapid economic growth and its implications for the world. The speaker discusses how China, with its 1.3 billion people, is projected to become the world's largest economy by 2020, surpassing the US. He emphasizes that China's rise is not just economic but also cultural, as it is fundamentally different from Western societies, rooted in its long history as a civilization-state rather than a nation-state. The speaker challenges Western assumptions about modernization equating to westernization and suggests that understanding China requires acknowledging its unique cultural and historical context, which includes its diverse and pluralistic nature, its distinct views on race, and its strong, pervasive state. He concludes by highlighting the importance of recognizing and embracing the shift towards a more diverse and inclusive global community.

Takeaways

• 📈 Economic Projections: Goldman Sachs and BNP Paribas predict that China's economy will surpass that of the United States by 2020, with China's economy projected to be twice the size by 2050, and India's economy to be almost equal to the US economy.
• 🌏 Global Shift: For the first time in the modern era, the dominant global power is projected to be a developing country with very different civilizational roots from the West.
• 🏛 Civilization-State: China is better understood as a civilization-state rather than a nation-state, with its identity and values deeply rooted in its ancient history and cultural practices.
• 👥 Population and Growth: China's rapid growth over the past 30 years has been around 10 percent annually, contributing to its significant economic development.
• 🏙️ Diversity and Decentralization: Despite its size, China is extremely diverse and pluralistic, necessitating a decentralized approach to governance that cannot be effectively managed solely from Beijing.
• 🔗 Unity and Civilization: The most important political value for China is the unity and maintenance of its civilization, which has historically moved in the opposite direction of fragmentation seen in Europe.
• 🏛️ 'One Country, Two Systems': China's approach to governance allows for different political and legal systems within the same civilization, as demonstrated by the case of Hong Kong.
• 👥 Race and Identity: Over 90 percent of Chinese people identify as Han, indicating a strong sense of racial and cultural identity that is distinct from multiracial societies.
• 🏢 State and Society: The Chinese state is viewed with more legitimacy and authority than Western states, due to its role as the guardian of Chinese civilization and its historical lack of serious rivals.
• 🚄 Infrastructure and Development: China's long history of state-led infrastructure projects, such as the Grand Canal and the Three Gorges Dam, reflects its current development initiatives, including high-speed rail and innovative transportation solutions.
• 🌐 West's Lack of Understanding: The West's tendency to apply its own concepts and experiences to understand China has led to incorrect predictions and a failure to grasp the fundamental differences in Chinese civilization.
• 🌟 The Future Belongs to the East: As the world shifts towards being driven by developing countries, the West is losing influence and becoming increasingly unfamiliar with global trends, necessitating a new understanding and appreciation of Eastern cultures.

Q & A

According to the Goldman Sachs projections mentioned in the script, when will the Chinese economy be predicted to be almost the same size as the American economy?

The Goldman Sachs projections suggest that by 2025, the Chinese economy will be almost the same size as the American economy.

What is the projected size of the Chinese and Indian economies relative to the American economy by 2050?

By 2050, it's projected that the Chinese economy will be twice the size of the American economy, and the Indian economy will be almost the same size as the American economy.

How does the script describe the change in projections for when China's economy will surpass that of the United States after the Western financial crisis?

The script mentions that Goldman Sachs initially projected this to happen by 2027, but after the financial crisis, BNP Paribas suggested that China could have a larger economy than the United States by 2020.

What are the two fundamental respects in which China is predicted to change the world according to the script?

China is predicted to change the world by becoming the largest economy in the world as a developing country, which has never happened before in the modern era, and by becoming the dominant country with very different civilizational roots from the West.

Why does the script argue that China will not become like the West?

The script argues that China will not become like the West because modernity is not solely a product of competition, markets, and technology, but is also shaped by history and culture, which are fundamentally different in China.

What is the first building block offered in the script to understand what China is like?

The first building block is the concept that China is not really a nation-state but a civilization-state, with a history and cultural identity that dates back much further than the last hundred years.

What is the significance of the Chinese view of themselves as a civilization-state rather than a nation-state?

The significance is that China's identity and values stem from a much older period of civilization, which influences its customs, notions of the state and family, social relationships, and Confucian values, making it fundamentally different from Western nation-states.

What is the script's explanation for why the Chinese have a very different conception of race compared to most other countries?

The script explains that over 90 percent of Chinese people consider themselves to belong to the same race, the Han, due to a history of conquest, occupation, absorption, and assimilation, which has led to a strong cultural identity and a weak conception of cultural difference.

How does the script describe the relationship between the state and society in China as compared to the West?

The script describes the relationship in China as one where the state enjoys more legitimacy and authority, seen as the embodiment and guardian of Chinese civilization. It is viewed as an intimate part of society, akin to the head of the family, in contrast to the Western view of the state as an entity that needs to be limited and constrained.

What are the implications of China's view of the state as the head of the family according to the script?

The implications are that the Chinese state is deeply embedded in society and has a significant role in leading firms, setting economic targets, and influencing various aspects of life, which is a departure from the Western experience where the state's power is often challenged and limited.

What does the script suggest is the reason for the West's incorrect predictions and misunderstandings about China?

The script suggests that the West's incorrect predictions and misunderstandings stem from an arrogant and ignorant attitude, assuming that Western experiences and concepts can be universally applied to understand China, and failing to address the fundamental differences in civilization and culture.

What is the script's final message regarding the world's changing dynamics and the role of China and other developing countries?

The script's final message is that the world is becoming increasingly shaped by developing countries like China and India, which represent a significant portion of the global population. This shift represents a democratization of global influence and a need for the West to learn about and understand these different civilizations and cultures.

Outlines

00:00

🌏 Economic Shifts and China's Rise

The script discusses the rapid changes in the global economy, highlighting projections that by 2025, China's economy will be nearly equal to that of the United States, and by 2050, it will be twice as large. It also mentions the Indian economy's growth. These predictions were made before the Western financial crisis, and more recent projections suggest China could surpass the U.S. even earlier than previously thought. The speaker emphasizes that China's impact on the world will be significant due to its status as a developing country with a large population and a history that predates its recent self-identification as a nation-state. The script challenges the Western assumption that modernization leads to westernization, arguing that China's unique history and culture will ensure it remains distinct from Western nations.

05:01

🏛 China as a Civilization-State

This paragraph delves into the concept of China as a civilization-state rather than a nation-state. It explains that China's identity and unity stem from its ancient history, dating back to the Qin and Han dynasties, rather than the last hundred years. The speaker argues that China's political values, such as unity and the maintenance of its civilization, are paramount. The script also touches on the diversity and decentralization within China, suggesting that it cannot be effectively governed solely from Beijing. The paragraph contrasts the 'one country, two systems' approach in Hong Kong with the Western expectation of a unified system in a nation-state, illustrating the different perspectives on governance and unity.

10:03

👥 China's Unique Perception of Race and the State

The speaker explores China's distinct conception of race, noting that over 90% of Chinese people identify as Han, which is a stark contrast to other populous countries that are multiracial. This unity is attributed to China's long history as a civilization-state, where conquest, occupation, absorption, and assimilation have led to a strong cultural identity. However, this also results in a lack of recognition and respect for cultural differences, as seen in attitudes towards minority groups like the Uyghurs and Tibetans. The paragraph also discusses the Chinese state's relationship with society, which is markedly different from the Western view. The Chinese state is seen as legitimate and authoritative, not because of democracy, but because it represents and guards Chinese civilization and has historically faced no serious rivals to its power.

15:04

🏦 The Chinese State's Role in Society and Economy

This section examines the Chinese state's role as the embodiment and guardian of Chinese civilization, akin to a spiritual role. It contrasts the Chinese view of the state as a family patriarch with the Western view of the state as an entity that needs to be limited and constrained. The speaker highlights the Chinese state's historical lack of rivals and its continuous growth of power, which has led to a different construction of power compared to Western history. The state's pervasive presence in China's economy, from leading firms to setting economic targets, is emphasized, along with its authority in other areas such as the one-child policy. The script also mentions historical infrastructural projects like the Great Wall and the Grand Canal, which demonstrate the state's competence and long-standing tradition of statecraft.

20:05

🌐 The West's Misconceptions and the Future Shaped by the Developing World

The final paragraph addresses the West's misconceptions about China and its tendency to apply Western concepts to understand it. The speaker criticizes this 'little Westerner mentality' as arrogant and ignorant, pointing out that the West has not needed to understand other cultures due to its historical dominance. In contrast, East Asians are more knowledgeable about the West. The script discusses the shift in global influence from the developed to the developing world, as evidenced by the rise of the G20 over the G7/G8. This shift is leading to a world increasingly shaped by cultures unfamiliar to the West. The speaker warns of Europe's ignorance and disconnection from these global changes and suggests that to understand the future, one should look to China, which is rapidly developing and implementing innovative solutions to its challenges.

🛳️ The Democratization of Global Influence and Welcoming the Future

In the concluding paragraph, the speaker posits that the rise of countries like China and India, representing a significant portion of the world's population, represents the most significant act of democratization in recent history. These civilizations, previously ignored or unheard, will now have a voice in global affairs. As humanists, the speaker encourages embracing this transformation and learning about these cultures. The script ends with a humorous note, suggesting that the Chinese invented golf and welcoming the audience to the future, symbolizing the shift in global power and the need to adapt to new realities.

Keywords

💡Economic Projections

Economic projections refer to forecasts about the future state of an economy, often made by financial institutions or economists. In the video's context, Goldman Sachs and BNP Paribas provide projections about China's economy surpassing that of the United States, indicating a significant shift in global economic power. The script mentions that the original projection was for 2027, but post-crisis, it was revised to 2020, showing the rapid pace of China's economic growth.

💡Developing Country

A developing country is a nation with a less developed industrial base and a lower Human Development Index (HDI) relative to other countries. The video emphasizes that China, as a developing country, is set to become the world's largest economy, which is a historical anomaly as typically the largest economy has been a developed nation.

💡Civilizational Roots

Civilizational roots refer to the deep historical, cultural, and social foundations that define a society or nation. The video discusses how China's rise as a dominant world power is significant because it originates from a civilization with very different roots compared to Western powers, suggesting a shift in global influence and cultural dynamics.

💡Modernization vs. Westernization

Modernization is the process of becoming modern, typically associated with economic and social development, technological advancement, and structural changes. Westernization, on the other hand, refers to the adoption of Western culture, values, and practices. The script argues against the assumption that modernization leads to Westernization, asserting that modernity is shaped by a country's unique history and culture, as exemplified by China's distinct path.

💡Nation-State vs. Civilization-State

A nation-state is a sovereign state where a single nation and its territory occupy it, whereas a civilization-state encompasses a broader concept of shared identity, history, and culture that transcends the modern concept of the nation-state. The video explains that China identifies more with its ancient civilizational roots, which predates the concept of the nation-state, and this distinction is crucial for understanding China's identity and its approach to governance and society.

💡Unity

Unity in the context of the video refers to the maintenance of a cohesive and unified Chinese civilization. It is highlighted as the most important political value for China, contrasting with the historical fragmentation of Europe. The script points out that China's unity is a stark opposite to the division that has characterized Europe since the breakdown of the Holy Roman Empire.

💡Pluralistic and Decentralized

Pluralistic refers to the existence of diverse and varied elements within a society, while decentralized implies that power or authority is not concentrated in one place. The video describes China as extremely diverse and pluralistic, with a decentralized approach to governance that acknowledges the impracticality of ruling such a vast and populous country solely from Beijing.

💡Han Identity

The Han identity pertains to the cultural and ethnic identity of the Han Chinese, who make up over 90% of China's population. The video discusses how this identity has been crucial in holding China together as a unified civilization-state, despite the potential disadvantage of fostering a sense of superiority and disrespect towards non-Han ethnic groups.

💡Legitimacy and Authority of the State

In the video, the legitimacy and authority of the state in China are presented as being derived not from democracy but from its role as the representative and guardian of Chinese civilization. This contrasts with Western perspectives that often link state legitimacy to democratic processes. The script argues that the Chinese state enjoys more authority and legitimacy because of its historical role and the absence of serious rivals to its power.

💡State Infrastructural Projects

State infrastructural projects refer to large-scale developments undertaken by the state, often for the public good or economic advancement. The video cites the Great Wall and the Grand Canal as historical examples of such projects in China, drawing a parallel to modern projects like the Three Gorges Dam, illustrating the state's ongoing role in major infrastructure development.

💡Democratization

Democratization in the video is presented as the process of giving voice and representation to a broader spectrum of the world's population. The rise of countries like China and India, representing a significant portion of the global population, is seen as a democratizing force that will bring previously ignored or unheard civilizations into the global conversation.

Highlights

By 2025, Goldman Sachs projections suggest the Chinese economy will be almost the same size as the American economy.

By 2050, the Chinese economy is projected to be twice the size of the American economy, with India's economy almost matching the US.

Post-crisis projections by BNP Paribas suggest China could have a larger economy than the US by 2020, a decade away.

China's rapid growth is unprecedented as it will be the first time a developing country has the world's largest economy.

China's rise to dominance will be distinct from Western powers due to its civilizational roots and non-Westernization.

Understanding China requires moving beyond Western concepts and recognizing its civilization-state identity.

China's identity is rooted in its civilization-state history, not in the modern concept of a nation-state.

China's unity and maintenance of its civilization is the most important political value, contrasting with Europe's fragmentation.

China's approach to Hong Kong and potentially Taiwan reflects a 'one civilization, many systems' philosophy.

Over 90% of Chinese identify as Han, indicating a unique conception of race compared to other populous countries.

The Han identity has been crucial for maintaining China's unity but also contributes to a lack of cultural diversity recognition.

The Chinese state has more legitimacy and authority than any Western state, unrelated to democracy.

The Chinese view the state as an integral part of society, akin to the head of the family, unlike Western perspectives.

China's historical state infrastructural projects, like the Grand Canal, reflect its current state competence.

China's belief in both the market and state represents a new paradigm different from Western experiences.

The West's ignorance and arrogance prevent accurate understanding and predictions about China's future.

The world is increasingly being shaped by developing countries, diminishing Western influence.

Europe's lack of awareness and engagement with global changes may lead to its irrelevance.

China's rapid development and innovation, such as high-speed rail, represent the future.

The rise of China and India represents a significant democratization of global influence and culture.

Transcripts

The world is changing

with really remarkable speed.

If you look at the chart at the top here,

you'll see that in 2025,

these Goldman Sachs projections

suggest that the Chinese economy

will be almost the same size as the American economy.

And if you look at the chart

for 2050,

it's projected that the Chinese economy

will be twice the size of the American economy,

and the Indian economy will be almost the same size

as the American economy.

And we should bear in mind here

that these projections were drawn up

before the Western financial crisis.

A couple of weeks ago,

I was looking at the latest projection

by BNP Paribas

for when China

will have a larger economy

than the United States.

Goldman Sachs projected 2027.

The post-crisis projection

is 2020.

That's just a decade away.

China is going to change the world

in two fundamental respects.

First of all,

it's a huge developing country

with a population of 1.3 billion people,

which has been growing for over 30 years

at around 10 percent a year.

And within a decade,

it will have the largest economy in the world.

Never before in the modern era

has the largest economy in the world

been that of a developing country,

rather than a developed country.

Secondly,

for the first time in the modern era,

the dominant country in the world --

which I think is what China will become --

will be not from the West

and from very, very different civilizational roots.

Now, I know it's a widespread assumption in the West

that as countries modernize,

they also westernize.

This is an illusion.

It's an assumption that modernity

is a product simply of competition, markets and technology.

It is not. It is also shaped equally

by history and culture.

China is not like the West,

and it will not become like the West.

It will remain in very fundamental respects

very different.

Now the big question here is obviously,

how do we make sense of China?

How do we try to understand what China is?

And the problem we have in the West at the moment, by and large,

is that the conventional approach

is that we understand it really in Western terms,

using Western ideas.

We can't.

Now I want to offer you

three building blocks

for trying to understand what China is like,

just as a beginning.

The first is this:

that China is not really a nation-state.

Okay, it's called itself a nation-state

for the last hundred years,

but everyone who knows anything about China

knows it's a lot older than this.

This was what China looked like with the victory of the Qin Dynasty

in 221 B.C. at the end of the warring-state period --

the birth of modern China.

And you can see it against the boundaries of modern China.

Or immediately afterward, the Han Dynasty,

still 2,000 years ago.

And you can see already it occupies

most of what we now know as Eastern China,

which is where the vast majority of Chinese lived then

and live now.

Now what is extraordinary about this

is, what gives China its sense of being China,

what gives the Chinese

the sense of what it is to be Chinese,

comes not from the last hundred years,

not from the nation-state period,

which is what happened in the West,

but from the period, if you like,

of the civilization-state.

I'm thinking here, for example,

of customs like ancestral worship,

of a very distinctive notion of the state,

likewise, a very distinctive notion of the family,

social relationships like guanxi,

Confucian values and so on.

These are all things that come

from the period of the civilization-state.

In other words, China, unlike the Western states and most countries in the world,

is shaped by its sense of civilization,

its existence as a civilization-state,

rather than as a nation-state.

And there's one other thing to add to this, and that is this:

Of course we know China's big, huge,

demographically and geographically,

with a population of 1.3 billion people.

What we often aren't really aware of

is the fact

that China is extremely diverse

and very pluralistic,

and in many ways very decentralized.

You can't run a place on this scale simply from Beijing,

even though we think this to be the case.

It's never been the case.

So this is China, a civilization-state,

rather than a nation-state.

And what does it mean?

Well, I think it has all sorts of profound implications.

I'll give you two quick ones.

The first is that

the most important political value for the Chinese

is unity,

is the maintenance

of Chinese civilization.

You know, 2,000 years ago, Europe:

breakdown -- the fragmentation of the Holy Roman Empire.

It divided, and it's remained divided ever since.

China, over the same time period,

went in exactly the opposite direction,

very painfully holding this huge civilization,

civilization-state, together.

The second

is maybe more prosaic,

which is Hong Kong.

Do you remember the handover of Hong Kong

by Britain to China in 1997?

You may remember

what the Chinese constitutional proposition was.

One country, two systems.

And I'll lay a wager

that barely anyone in the West believed them.

"Window dressing.

When China gets its hands on Hong Kong,

that won't be the case."

Thirteen years on,

the political and legal system in Hong Kong

is as different now as it was in 1997.

We were wrong. Why were we wrong?

We were wrong because we thought, naturally enough,

in nation-state ways.

Think of German unification, 1990.

What happened?

Well, basically the East was swallowed by the West.

One nation, one system.

That is the nation-state mentality.

But you can't run a country like China,

a civilization-state,

on the basis of one civilization, one system.

It doesn't work.

So actually the response of China

to the question of Hong Kong --

as it will be to the question of Taiwan --

was a natural response:

one civilization, many systems.

Let me offer you another building block

to try and understand China --

maybe not sort of a comfortable one.

The Chinese have a very, very different

conception of race

to most other countries.

Do you know,

of the 1.3 billion Chinese,

over 90 percent of them

think they belong to the same race,

the Han?

Now, this is completely different

from the world's [other] most populous countries.

India, the United States,

Indonesia, Brazil --

all of them are multiracial.

The Chinese don't feel like that.

China is only multiracial

really at the margins.

So the question is, why?

Well the reason, I think, essentially

is, again, back to the civilization-state.

A history of at least 2,000 years,

a history of conquest, occupation,

absorption, assimilation and so on,

led to the process by which,

over time, this notion of the Han emerged --

of course, nurtured

by a growing and very powerful sense

of cultural identity.

Now the great advantage of this historical experience

has been that, without the Han,

China could never have held together.

The Han identity has been the cement

which has held this country together.

The great disadvantage of it

is that the Han have a very weak conception

of cultural difference.

They really believe

in their own superiority,

and they are disrespectful

of those who are not.

Hence their attitude, for example,

to the Uyghurs and to the Tibetans.

Or let me give you my third building block,

the Chinese state.

Now the relationship

between the state and society in China

is very different from that in the West.

Now we in the West

overwhelmingly seem to think -- in these days at least --

that the authority and legitimacy of the state

is a function of democracy.

The problem with this proposition

is that the Chinese state

enjoys more legitimacy

and more authority

amongst the Chinese

than is true

with any Western state.

And the reason for this

is because --

well, there are two reasons, I think.

And it's obviously got nothing to do with democracy,

because in our terms the Chinese certainly don't have a democracy.

And the reason for this is,

firstly, because the state in China

is given a very special --

it enjoys a very special significance

as the representative,

the embodiment and the guardian

of Chinese civilization,

of the civilization-state.

This is as close as China gets

to a kind of spiritual role.

And the second reason is because,

whereas in Europe

and North America,

the state's power is continuously challenged --

I mean in the European tradition,

historically against the church,

against other sectors of the aristocracy,

against merchants and so on --

for 1,000 years,

the power of the Chinese state

has not been challenged.

It's had no serious rivals.

So you can see

that the way in which power has been constructed in China

is very different from our experience

in Western history.

The result, by the way,

is that the Chinese have a very different view of the state.

Whereas we tend to view it as an intruder,

a stranger,

certainly an organ

whose powers need to be limited

or defined and constrained,

the Chinese don't see the state like that at all.

The Chinese view the state

as an intimate -- not just as an intimate actually,

as a member of the family --

not just in fact as a member of the family,

but as the head of the family,

the patriarch of the family.

This is the Chinese view of the state --

very, very different to ours.

It's embedded in society in a different kind of way

to what is the case

in the West.

And I would suggest to you that actually what we are dealing with here,

in the Chinese context,

is a new kind of paradigm,

which is different from anything

we've had to think about in the past.

Know that China believes in the market and the state.

I mean, Adam Smith,

already writing in the late 18th century, said,

"The Chinese market is larger and more developed

and more sophisticated

than anything in Europe."

And, apart from the Mao period,

that has remained more or less the case ever since.

But this is combined

with an extremely strong and ubiquitous state.

The state is everywhere in China.

I mean, it's leading firms --

many of them are still publicly owned.

Private firms, however large they are, like Lenovo,

depend in many ways on state patronage.

Targets for the economy and so on

are set by the state.

And the state, of course, its authority flows into lots of other areas --

as we are familiar with --

with something like the one-child policy.

Moreover, this is a very old state tradition,

a very old tradition of statecraft.

I mean, if you want an illustration of this,

the Great Wall is one.

But this is another, this is the Grand Canal,

which was constructed in the first instance

in the fifth century B.C.

and was finally completed

in the seventh century A.D.

It went for 1,114 miles,

linking Beijing

with Hangzhou and Shanghai.

So there's a long history

of extraordinary state infrastructural projects

in China,

which I suppose helps us to explain what we see today,

which is something like the Three Gorges Dam

and many other expressions

of state competence

within China.

So there we have three building blocks

for trying to understand the difference that is China --

the civilization-state,

the notion of race

and the nature of the state

and its relationship to society.

And yet we still insist, by and large,

in thinking that we can understand China

by simply drawing on Western experience,

looking at it through Western eyes,

using Western concepts.

If you want to know why

we unerringly seem to get China wrong --

our predictions about what's going to happen to China are incorrect --

this is the reason.

Unfortunately, I think,

I have to say that I think

attitude towards China

is that of a kind of little Westerner mentality.

It's kind of arrogant.

It's arrogant in the sense

that we think that we are best,

and therefore we have the universal measure.

And secondly, it's ignorant.

We refuse to really address

the issue of difference.

You know, there's a very interesting passage

in a book by Paul Cohen, the American historian.

And Paul Cohen argues

that the West thinks of itself

as probably the most cosmopolitan

of all cultures.

But it's not.

In many ways,

it's the most parochial,

because for 200 years,

the West has been so dominant in the world

that it's not really needed

to understand other cultures,

other civilizations.

Because, at the end of the day,

it could, if necessary by force,

get its own way.

Whereas those cultures --

virtually the rest of the world, in fact,

which have been in a far weaker position, vis-a-vis the West --

have been thereby forced to understand the West,

because of the West's presence in those societies.

And therefore, they are, as a result,

more cosmopolitan in many ways than the West.

I mean, take the question of East Asia.

East Asia: Japan, Korea, China, etc. --

a third of the world's population lives there.

Now the largest economic region in the world.

And I'll tell you now,

that East Asianers, people from East Asia,

are far more knowledgeable

about the West

than the West is about East Asia.

Now this point is very germane, I'm afraid,

to the present.

Because what's happening? Back to that chart at the beginning,

the Goldman Sachs chart.

What is happening

is that, very rapidly in historical terms,

the world is being driven

and shaped,

not by the old developed countries,

but by the developing world.

We've seen this

in terms of the G20

usurping very rapidly the position of the G7,

or the G8.

And there are two consequences of this.

First, the West

is rapidly losing

its influence in the world.

There was a dramatic illustration of this actually a year ago --

Copenhagen, climate change conference.

Europe was not at the final negotiating table.

When did that last happen?

I would wager it was probably about 200 years ago.

And that is what is going to happen in the future.

And the second implication

is that the world will inevitably, as a consequence,

become increasingly unfamiliar to us,

because it'll be shaped by cultures and experiences and histories

that we are not really familiar with,

or conversant with.

And at last, I'm afraid -- take Europe;

America is slightly different --

but Europeans by and large, I have to say,

are ignorant,

are unaware

about the way the world is changing.

Some people -- I've got an English friend in China,

and he said, "The continent is sleepwalking into oblivion."

Well, maybe that's true,

maybe that's an exaggeration.

But there's another problem which goes along with this --

that Europe is increasingly out of touch with the world --

and that is a sort of

loss of a sense of the future.

I mean, Europe once, of course, once commanded the future

in its confidence.

Take the 19th century, for example.

But this, alas, is no longer true.

If you want to feel the future, if you want to taste the future,

try China -- there's old Confucius.

This is a railway station

the likes of which you've never seen before.

It doesn't even look like a railway station.

This is the new [Wuhan] railway station

for the high-speed trains.

China already has a bigger network

than any other country in the world

and will soon have more than all the rest of the world put together.

Or take this: now this is an idea,

but it's an idea to be tried out shortly

in a suburb of Beijing.

Here you have a megabus,

on the upper deck carries about 2,000 people.

It travels on rails

down a suburban road,

and the cars travel underneath it.

And it does speeds of up to about 100 miles an hour.

Now this is the way things are going to move,

because China has a very specific problem,

which is different from Europe

and different from the United States:

China has huge numbers of people and no space.

So this is a solution to a situation

where China's going to have

many, many, many cities

over 20 million people.

Okay, so how would I like to finish?

Well, what should our attitude be

towards this world

that we see

very rapidly developing

before us?

I think there will be good things about it and there will be bad things about it.

But I want to argue, above all,

a big-picture positive for this world.

For 200 years,

the world was essentially governed

by a fragment of the human population.

That's what Europe and North America represented.

The arrival of countries

like China and India --

between them 38 percent of the world's population --

and others like Indonesia and Brazil and so on,

represent the most important single act

of democratization

in the last 200 years.

Civilizations and cultures,

which had been ignored, which had no voice,

which were not listened to, which were not known about,

will have a different sort

of representation in this world.

As humanists, we must welcome, surely,

this transformation,

and we will have to learn

about these civilizations.

This big ship here

was the one sailed in by Zheng He

in the early 15th century

on his great voyages

around the South China Sea, the East China Sea

and across the Indian Ocean to East Africa.

The little boat in front of it

was the one in which, 80 years later,

Christopher Columbus crossed the Atlantic.

(Laughter)

Or, look carefully

at this silk scroll

made by ZhuZhou

in 1368.

I think they're playing golf.

Christ, the Chinese even invented golf.

Welcome to the future. Thank you.

(Applause)