Understanding the rise of China | Martin Jacques

Summary

This insightful talk explores China's rapid economic growth and its implications for the world. The speaker discusses how China, with its 1.3 billion people, is projected to become the world's largest economy by 2020, surpassing the US. He emphasizes that China's rise is not just economic but also cultural, as it is fundamentally different from Western societies, rooted in its long history as a civilization-state rather than a nation-state. The speaker challenges Western assumptions about modernization equating to westernization and suggests that understanding China requires acknowledging its unique cultural and historical context, which includes its diverse and pluralistic nature, its distinct views on race, and its strong, pervasive state. He concludes by highlighting the importance of recognizing and embracing the shift towards a more diverse and inclusive global community.

Takeaways

• 📈 Economic Projections: Goldman Sachs and BNP Paribas predict that China's economy will surpass that of the United States by 2020, with China's economy projected to be twice the size by 2050, and India's economy to be almost equal to the US economy.
• 🌏 Global Shift: For the first time in the modern era, the dominant global power is projected to be a developing country with very different civilizational roots from the West.
• 🏛 Civilization-State: China is better understood as a civilization-state rather than a nation-state, with its identity and values deeply rooted in its ancient history and cultural practices.
• 👥 Population and Growth: China's rapid growth over the past 30 years has been around 10 percent annually, contributing to its significant economic development.
• 🏙️ Diversity and Decentralization: Despite its size, China is extremely diverse and pluralistic, necessitating a decentralized approach to governance that cannot be effectively managed solely from Beijing.
• 🔗 Unity and Civilization: The most important political value for China is the unity and maintenance of its civilization, which has historically moved in the opposite direction of fragmentation seen in Europe.
• 🏛️ 'One Country, Two Systems': China's approach to governance allows for different political and legal systems within the same civilization, as demonstrated by the case of Hong Kong.
• 👥 Race and Identity: Over 90 percent of Chinese people identify as Han, indicating a strong sense of racial and cultural identity that is distinct from multiracial societies.
• 🏢 State and Society: The Chinese state is viewed with more legitimacy and authority than Western states, due to its role as the guardian of Chinese civilization and its historical lack of serious rivals.
• 🚄 Infrastructure and Development: China's long history of state-led infrastructure projects, such as the Grand Canal and the Three Gorges Dam, reflects its current development initiatives, including high-speed rail and innovative transportation solutions.
• 🌐 West's Lack of Understanding: The West's tendency to apply its own concepts and experiences to understand China has led to incorrect predictions and a failure to grasp the fundamental differences in Chinese civilization.
• 🌟 The Future Belongs to the East: As the world shifts towards being driven by developing countries, the West is losing influence and becoming increasingly unfamiliar with global trends, necessitating a new understanding and appreciation of Eastern cultures.

Q & A

According to the Goldman Sachs projections mentioned in the script, when will the Chinese economy be predicted to be almost the same size as the American economy?

The Goldman Sachs projections suggest that by 2025, the Chinese economy will be almost the same size as the American economy.

What is the projected size of the Chinese and Indian economies relative to the American economy by 2050?

By 2050, it's projected that the Chinese economy will be twice the size of the American economy, and the Indian economy will be almost the same size as the American economy.

How does the script describe the change in projections for when China's economy will surpass that of the United States after the Western financial crisis?

The script mentions that Goldman Sachs initially projected this to happen by 2027, but after the financial crisis, BNP Paribas suggested that China could have a larger economy than the United States by 2020.

What are the two fundamental respects in which China is predicted to change the world according to the script?

China is predicted to change the world by becoming the largest economy in the world as a developing country, which has never happened before in the modern era, and by becoming the dominant country with very different civilizational roots from the West.

Why does the script argue that China will not become like the West?

The script argues that China will not become like the West because modernity is not solely a product of competition, markets, and technology, but is also shaped by history and culture, which are fundamentally different in China.

What is the first building block offered in the script to understand what China is like?

The first building block is the concept that China is not really a nation-state but a civilization-state, with a history and cultural identity that dates back much further than the last hundred years.

What is the significance of the Chinese view of themselves as a civilization-state rather than a nation-state?

The significance is that China's identity and values stem from a much older period of civilization, which influences its customs, notions of the state and family, social relationships, and Confucian values, making it fundamentally different from Western nation-states.

What is the script's explanation for why the Chinese have a very different conception of race compared to most other countries?

The script explains that over 90 percent of Chinese people consider themselves to belong to the same race, the Han, due to a history of conquest, occupation, absorption, and assimilation, which has led to a strong cultural identity and a weak conception of cultural difference.

How does the script describe the relationship between the state and society in China as compared to the West?

The script describes the relationship in China as one where the state enjoys more legitimacy and authority, seen as the embodiment and guardian of Chinese civilization. It is viewed as an intimate part of society, akin to the head of the family, in contrast to the Western view of the state as an entity that needs to be limited and constrained.

What are the implications of China's view of the state as the head of the family according to the script?

The implications are that the Chinese state is deeply embedded in society and has a significant role in leading firms, setting economic targets, and influencing various aspects of life, which is a departure from the Western experience where the state's power is often challenged and limited.

What does the script suggest is the reason for the West's incorrect predictions and misunderstandings about China?

The script suggests that the West's incorrect predictions and misunderstandings stem from an arrogant and ignorant attitude, assuming that Western experiences and concepts can be universally applied to understand China, and failing to address the fundamental differences in civilization and culture.

What is the script's final message regarding the world's changing dynamics and the role of China and other developing countries?

The script's final message is that the world is becoming increasingly shaped by developing countries like China and India, which represent a significant portion of the global population. This shift represents a democratization of global influence and a need for the West to learn about and understand these different civilizations and cultures.