中国青年失业率为什么如此之高？｜失业率｜青年失业率｜经济增速｜统计口径｜就业困局｜王局拍案20230718

Summary

The script discusses China's economic data, questioning its reliability and manipulation by the National Bureau of Statistics. It delves into the high youth unemployment rate, suggesting statistical underestimation and distortion due to exclusion of rural areas, low work-hour thresholds for employment, and university pressures to inflate job placement rates. The speaker criticizes the economy's reliance on domestic demand, the impact of diplomatic relations on trade, and the challenges faced by university graduates seeking white-collar jobs amidst a shrinking job market.

Takeaways

• 📊 The National Bureau of Statistics of China reported 'stable and improving' economic performance in the first half of the year, but the speaker suggests this term may be used to mask underlying issues.
• 🤔 The speaker questions the objectivity of China's statistical data, implying that it might be manipulated for public perception and propaganda purposes.
• 🎨 The term 'Chief Makeup Artist' is used metaphorically to describe the role of the National Bureau of Statistics, hinting at the embellishment of economic data.
• 📚 The recommendation of the book 'How to Lie with Statistics' suggests that statistical methods can be used to present data in misleading ways.
• 📉 The script points out a decline in China's GDP growth rate over the past five years, contradicting the 'stable and improving' narrative.
• 🔍 The speaker criticizes the lack of longitudinal data provided by the National Bureau of Statistics, preventing the public from seeing the full economic picture.
• 📈 The year-on-year GDP growth of 6.5% in the second quarter is highlighted as potentially misleading due to the low growth base of the previous year.
• 😕 The high youth unemployment rate of 21.3% is presented as a significant issue, contrasting with the overall unemployment rate of 5.3%.
• 👥 The method of calculating China's unemployment rate is criticized for excluding rural areas and using a low threshold for what constitutes employment.
• 🎓 The speaker discusses the pressure on university graduates to find white-collar jobs, leading to a structural disparity in the job market.
• 🏢 The script identifies key industries like internet, real estate, and education as facing challenges, impacting their ability to absorb new graduates.

Q & A

What was the reported GDP growth rate for the first half of the year according to the National Bureau of Statistics of China?

The reported GDP growth rate for the first half of the year was 5.5%.

What is the term used by the National Bureau of Statistics of China to describe the economic performance in every industry and aspect?

The term used is 'stable and improving'.

What was Yao Jingyuan's position when interviewed by the speaker?

Yao Jingyuan was the Chief Economist of the National Bureau of Statistics at the time of the interview.

What suspicions did the speaker have about the data provided by the National Bureau of Statistics?

The speaker suspected that there might be two sets of data: one for the general public and another for Party and national leaders, due to the public's limited ability to comprehend real information.

How does the speaker describe the statistical data manipulation by the National Bureau of Statistics of China?

The manipulation has two aspects: embellishing some data that is not true, and modifying statistical methodology and sample representation.

What book was recommended by the speaker to understand the secrets behind statistical data?

The book recommended is 'How to Lie with Statistics'.

What is the reported youth unemployment rate as of the end of June according to the latest data?

The reported youth unemployment rate is 21.3%.

How does the speaker describe the calculation of China's unemployment rate?

The calculation is based on a sample of 240,000 households nationwide, analyzing the employment rates of different age groups within these households.

What is the issue with the unemployment rate calculation according to the speaker?

The issue is that it only accounts for urban areas and excludes rural areas, treating migrant workers as if they are always employed when they return to rural areas, which is not accurate.

What is the criterion for employment according to China's definition?

According to China's definition, working just one hour in a week does not count as unemployment.

Why does the speaker believe that the actual unemployment rate among Chinese university students is higher than reported?

The speaker believes this is due to data falsification by universities to meet employment rate targets set by local labor departments, which can lead to penalties for the universities if not met.

What are the three industries that accommodate the largest number of employed individuals in China?

The three industries are the internet, real estate, and education and training industry.

What challenges have the three key industries faced in recent years according to the script?

The challenges include significant damage to the internet industry with fines and market reshuffling, a decline in housing prices and savings-to-debt ratio in the real estate market, and continuous adjustments and rectification measures in the education and training industry.

What is the speaker's view on the most crucial reason for the transformation in China's foreign trade and exports?

The speaker believes that the most crucial reason is China making enemies in the diplomatic arena, leading to a reduction in the proportion of Chinese product exports as a risk mitigation measure by the international community.

What is the implication of China no longer being the largest importer of goods from the US according to the script?

The implication is that there is a worsening trade environment for China, which is affecting its economic development and ultimately the unemployment rate among Chinese youth.

What advice does the speaker give to those who have a job?

The speaker advises those who have a job to cherish it and not to switch jobs easily, as the job market is challenging and it can leave one without even a meal to eat.

Outlines

00:00

📊 Questioning China's Economic Data Reliability

The speaker begins by discussing the recent economic data released by China's National Bureau of Statistics, which claims stability and improvement across all sectors. The speaker expresses skepticism about the authenticity of these statistics, suggesting that they may be manipulated to present a favorable image of the economy. The speaker recalls an interview with Yao Jingyuan, the Chief Economist of the bureau, where questions were raised about the possibility of dual data sets for public and internal consumption. The speaker also addresses the issue of statistical methodology and the potential for data embellishment, recommending the book 'How to Lie with Statistics' to understand the nuances of data presentation. The summary highlights the discrepancy between reported GDP growth rates and the actual decline observed over the past five years, and the speaker's view that the bureau's role extends to public sentiment management and propaganda rather than purely objective data reporting.

05:03

🎓 The Reality of Youth Unemployment in China

This paragraph delves into the issue of youth unemployment in China, with the latest data showing a record high of 21.3% unemployment rate among the youth. The speaker criticizes the methodology used by the National Bureau of Statistics for underestimating and distorting the true extent of unemployment, particularly by excluding migrant workers from the calculations and using a low threshold for what constitutes employment. The speaker also discusses the absurdity of China's unemployment criteria, where working just one hour a week is not considered unemployment, contrasting it with standards in the U.S. and France. The paragraph also touches on the challenges faced by university graduates, including the pressure to sign employment agreements to meet university and government targets, leading to falsified employment data and a real unemployment rate much higher than official figures suggest.

10:04

🏢 The Impact of Economic Shifts on Graduate Employment

The speaker explores the reasons behind the high unemployment rate among university graduates in China, starting with the sheer number of graduates entering the job market—11.5 million this year compared to only 7.55 million job vacancies. The speaker points out the structural disparity between the desire for white-collar jobs among graduates and the limited availability of such positions. The speaker also discusses the role of family expectations and support, which often leads to graduates delaying employment to pursue further studies or civil service positions. The paragraph also highlights the challenges faced by key industries that traditionally absorb a large number of graduates, such as the internet, real estate, and education sectors, which have been facing significant turbulence in recent years, reducing their capacity to hire new graduates.

15:09

📉 Economic Downturn and Its Effect on Job Market

This section of the script addresses the broader economic factors contributing to the challenging job market for university graduates in China. The speaker notes the decline in GDP growth over the past five years and its direct impact on job availability, with each percentage point drop in GDP leading to the loss of approximately 1 million jobs. The speaker also discusses the fluctuating unemployment rate, which initially dropped at the start of the pandemic but has since risen again. The paragraph connects the unemployment issue with China's trade environment, pointing out the decline in exports to major economies, except Russia, and suggesting that diplomatic relations may be affecting trade patterns. The speaker concludes by emphasizing the importance of a stable external trade environment for China's economic growth and the implications of deteriorating relations with key trading partners.

20:13

🌐 The Global Perspective on China's Economic Challenges

In the final paragraph, the speaker wraps up the discussion by reiterating the difficulty of sustaining China's economy solely on domestic demand and the importance of integrating into the global market. The speaker suggests that China's economic competitiveness and diplomatic relations are crucial factors affecting its trade environment and, by extension, its unemployment rate. The speaker warns of the potential for further economic deterioration if China fails to maintain harmonious relations with major nations and stresses the need for peaceful coexistence for mutual economic development. The paragraph ends with a cautionary note for those who are employed to value their jobs in the current challenging economic climate.

Keywords

💡National Bureau of Statistics of China

The National Bureau of Statistics of China is the government agency responsible for collecting, analyzing, and publishing official statistics related to China's economic and social conditions. In the video's context, it is mentioned as the source of economic performance data, which the speaker suggests may be manipulated to always show 'stability and improvement' rather than a true reflection of the economic state.

💡Chief Economist

The Chief Economist is typically the head of the economic research department in an organization, responsible for providing economic analysis and forecasts. In the script, Yao Jingyuan, the Chief Economist of the National Bureau of Statistics, is referenced during an interview where he is questioned about the authenticity of the data provided by the bureau.

💡Statistical Manipulation

Statistical Manipulation refers to the intentional alteration of statistical data to present a misleading picture. The video discusses this concept, suggesting that China's statistical data may be embellished or modified through changes in methodology and sample representation to create an impression of constant improvement.

💡Youth Unemployment Rate

Youth Unemployment Rate is a measure of the number of unemployed individuals in the labor force who are within a certain age range, typically 15 to 24 years old. The video script highlights this rate as a significant issue, stating it has reached 21.3%, the highest since data collection began, indicating a substantial challenge for recent graduates entering the job market.

💡Unemployment Distortion

Unemployment Distortion refers to the discrepancy between the actual unemployment situation and the reported figures, often due to statistical inaccuracies or misrepresentation. The script criticizes China's method of calculating unemployment, arguing that it excludes certain groups like migrant workers and uses a low threshold for what constitutes employment, leading to an underestimation of the true unemployment rate.

💡Graduation and Immediate Unemployment

Graduation and Immediate Unemployment describes the phenomenon where university graduates face unemployment immediately after completing their studies. The video script illustrates this with anecdotes from graduates who struggle to find jobs, despite having higher education, pointing to a mismatch between the job market and the skills or expectations of graduates.

💡Structural Disparity

Structural Disparity refers to a situation where there is an imbalance between the supply of labor and the demand for certain types of jobs in an economy. The video discusses this in the context of a surplus of university graduates seeking white-collar jobs, while the market cannot provide enough of these positions, leading to high youth unemployment.

💡Key Industries

Key Industries are sectors that are crucial to a country's economy and employment. The script mentions three industries—internet, real estate, and education and training—as major employers of youth in China. However, it also discusses how these industries have faced challenges that have reduced their capacity to absorb new graduates, contributing to the unemployment issue.

💡GDP Growth Deceleration

GDP Growth Deceleration indicates a slowdown in the rate of economic growth, measured by Gross Domestic Product. The video script connects the deceleration of China's GDP growth over the past five years to job losses and a challenging employment situation, suggesting that economic slowdown directly impacts the ability to create new jobs.

💡External Trade Environment

External Trade Environment refers to the conditions and relationships that affect a country's international trade. The script argues that China's economy relies not only on domestic demand but also on a stable external trade environment. It suggests that diplomatic tensions and a shift in global trade patterns have negatively affected China's exports and, consequently, its economic growth and employment situation.

Highlights

The National Bureau of Statistics of China released data on the economic performance in the first half of the year, claiming 'stable and improving' conditions.

The term 'stable and improving' is questioned as a euphemism for data manipulation by the National Bureau of Statistics.

Yao Jingyuan, the Chief Economist, avoided answering questions about the manipulation of statistical data, implying its existence.

The book 'How to Lie with Statistics' is recommended to understand the potential for statistical manipulation.

China's GDP growth rate has declined significantly over the past five years, contradicting the 'stable and improving' narrative.

Year-on-year data is highlighted as a method to mask the true economic decline by avoiding longitudinal comparisons.

The 6.5% GDP growth in the second quarter is criticized as being based on a nearly stagnant baseline from the previous year.

The National Bureau of Statistics is accused of creating an impression of stability and improvement through statistical methodology changes.

The youth unemployment rate has reached a record high of 21.3%, sparking concerns about the job market for recent graduates.

The calculation of China's unemployment rate is criticized for excluding rural areas and migrant workers.

China's definition of employment is questioned for considering one hour of work per week as 'employment'.

The unemployment insurance system in China is criticized for its low payment ratio and strict criteria for qualification.

The requirement for university students to sign agreements with third parties before graduation is linked to data falsification.

The higher education level is found to correlate with increased difficulty in finding employment in China.

Key industries like internet, real estate, and education are facing challenges, reducing their capacity to employ new graduates.

The decline in China's GDP growth is linked to a loss of jobs, contributing to the unemployment rate.

China's export data shows a decline, affecting the economy and contributing to unemployment, with Russia being an exception.

The speaker suggests that China's foreign trade and exports are affected by diplomatic relations and the need for risk diversification by other countries.

The importance of maintaining a stable external trade environment for China's future economic growth is emphasized.

Transcripts

Yesterday, which was July 17th,

The National Bureau of Statistics of China

released the data on the economic performance in the first half of this year.

In every industry and aspect, the situation is stable and improving

I believe that "stable and improving" can be considered

a specific term used by the National Bureau of Statistics of China

because all the data they release

always shows stability and improvement.

never shows stability and declining

Several years ago, I interviewed Yao Jingyuan,

the Chief Economist of the National Bureau of Statistics,

At that time, Yao Jingyuan was enthusiastic about media interviews

and frequently appeared on CCTV.

We asked him two questions.

The first question was whether they have two sets of statistics.

One set for the general public to see,

and another set for the Party and national leaders to see.

because we need to consider that

the general public has limited ability to comprehend the real information

and cannot withstand the test of real data.

So, we suspected that they deliberately provided two sets of data for us.

Regarding the second question,

we didn't ask the following questions, only the first one.

Secondly, someone referred to you as the "Chief Makeup Artist."

Regardless of whether you are called the "Chief Economist," what is your opinion?

At that time, he laughed at us during the program and didn't want to answer.

But his laughter was actually an answer in itself,

indicating that China's statistical data indeed have some room for manipulation.

This manipulation has two aspects:

Firstly, some data is indeed embellished.

What is presented to the public is not the true statistical data.

That's the first aspect.

Secondly, there are modifications of statistical methodology and sample representation.

This involves a great deal of expertise.

I previously recommended a book to everyone called "How to Lie with Statistics"

With the same set of statistical data,

conclusions drawn through different statistical methods

can be completely opposite if you haven't studied it.

So, if you are interested,

in unraveling the secrets behind these statistical data,

I recommend taking a look at this book.

Let's take the data released in the first half of this year as an example.

For instance, the GDP growth in the first half of the year reached 5.5%.

This data looks impressive, indicating stability and improvement.

But if you compare it longitudinally,

from 2018 until now, in just a short span of five years,

China's GDP growth rate has declined from 7%-8%

to 5%-6%.

In other words, it has dropped by around 2% to 2.5%.

This is clearly a case of "stability with a decline,"

so how can it be considered "stable and improving"?

they don't provide you with longitudinal statistics,

they don't allow you to make longitudinal comparisons.

So, you will never see that data showing a decline in stability.

Secondly, let's take the data for the second quarter of this year.

Compared to the same period last year,

it shows a year-on-year growth of 6.5%.

At first glance, this data seems quite favorable.

But let me tell you,

the GDP growth in the second quarter of last year was only 0.4%.

Because, what was happening during the second quarter of last year?

Cities across the country were under lockdown,

transportation was restricted, and PCR testing was being conducted.

Who had the capacity for production and construction during that time?

The economic growth in the second quarter of last year was almost stagnant.

So, the current 6.5% growth is based on a nearly stagnant baseline.

with a growth of 6.5%.

So, while it may appear to be a high figure at 6.5%, is actually quite low.

It falls below the general expectations of international investment banks

regarding China's economic growth.

But you can see that the National Bureau of Statistics

only publishes year-on-year data,

and it doesn't inform you about the expectations of international investment banks.

China is clearly falling below the expected values.

This is achieved through changes in statistical methodology,

deliberately creating an impression of stability and improvement.

Because the National Bureau of Statistics of China has such a role,

it is not only responsible for releasing genuine data,

but also for soothing the emotions of the general public,

and presenting the great economic development of our motherland,

painting a bright future.

That's why we refer to it as the "Chief Makeup Artist," not the "Chief Economist."

In theory, economic data should be objective, shouldn't it?

In theory, this data should truly reflect the state of the economy.

But in China, it doesn't.

To a large extent, it serves a propaganda function.

This raises a question:

The data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China requires further analysis

for you to carefully understand the actual state of China's economic performance.

If you don't subject this data to further analysis,

you will often find yourself in a state of confusion.

Today, I would like to discuss data released by the National Bureau of Statistics.

a topic that has garnered significant attention based on the data

That topic is youth unemployment rate.

According to the latest data, the youth unemployment rate,

as of the end of June this year, has reached 21.3%.

This is the highest value since the collection of statistical data began.

When compared to the overall unemployment rate

of 5.3% for the entire population,

this figure is not too bad

So, why is the youth unemployment rate so high?

This is the question I want to analyze today.

"Sometimes I wonder what the significance of going to university is."

"I have applied and interviewed with nearly 50 companies since graduation."

"Some companies offer unpaid internships, but they don't offer you employment contract."

"It's as if going to university"

"was only to find a decent and higher-paying job, making me feel accomplished."

"But the reality is so far from that, to the point where I feel depressed."

First, let's talk about how China's unemployment rate,

specifically the youth unemployment rate, is calculated.

Every year, the National Bureau of Statistics selects 240,000 samples nationwide,

consisting of 250,000 urban households and 90,000 rural households.

They then analyze the employment rates

of different age groups within these households,

which provides the unemployment rate and the specific data for youth unemployment.

I can explain to you that the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics

is clearly underestimated,

and one could even say it is significantly distorted.

Why is that?

Firstly, China's unemployment rate only accounts for urban areas

and does not include rural areas.

There is a large number of migrant workers from rural areas

who engage in industrial production in cities.

They are an integral part of China's industrial production line.

But in China's unemployment rate calculation, they are always treated as zero.

They are neither included in the denominator nor the numerator.

So rural farmers in China are actually in a very disadvantaged position.

If they are out of work, they are expected to return to rural areas.

According to China's statistical reporting,

every farmer have land in their households.

is considered employed when returning home

But this reasoning is highly questionable.

Why? Because in China, the majority of farmers

consider their primary work or work preference to be in urban areas,

not in their own agricultural production.

As long as they can find jobs in cities,

most of them are willing to work on production lines.

So in theory, if they have the willingness to work but cannot find employment,

they should be included in the unemployment rate calculation.

China's statistical reporting first excludes all farmers from consideration.

This issue, in essence, is a statistical distortion, and that is the first point.

The second point is about the definition of unemployment.

China has a rather ridiculous criterion.

It states that if you work for just one hour in a week,

it does not count as unemployment.

For example, if you deliver food for one hour

or conduct a small business on a platform like Goofish,

it is not considered unemployment.

But think about it, working only one hour a week,

what does that imply? Can it be considered employment?

let's compare this with the statistical criteria used in other countries worldwide.

In the United States, working 15 hours per week is considered employment.

In France, it is 20 hours per week.

Why does the U.S. set the threshold at 15 hours?

How this standard is made is actually quite simple.

It is based on the federal minimum wage in the U.S.

which is approximately $7.28 per hour.

Multiplying this hourly wage by 15 hours,

if you work 15 hours per week,

you would earn around $108 to $110.

This amount is sufficient to cover basic living expenses, including food.

it is considered the minimum threshold for basic employment.

It means that the money you earn is enough to feed yourself,

though it may not cover other expenses.

This standard is not particularly high,

but how does China determine its employment standard?

It is based on working just one hour per week.

let's calculate it.

Can you support yourself by working only one hour per week?

Can you even afford to have a proper meal?

Clearly, it is not enough.

what should be the standard for calculating

employment and unemployment rates?

When we say someone is employed,

it should refer to their engagement in work

that can at least sustain their own livelihood

It should ensure that they will not starve to death.

If you work only one hour per week,

you would still starve to death.

So you can see that this statistical criterion itself is extremely ridiculous.

The third aspect is about

the definition of unemployment and another criterion,

which is having the so-called willingness to work.

The government also needs to recognize your willingness to work,

and if you are without a job, then it is considered unemployment.

Let me share a very ridiculous example.

When I returned to the country two years ago,

I thought I was unemployed

because there was a policy during the pandemic that stated

if you were unemployed, you could receive unemployment benefits.

So, I registered on the Beijing Social Security app

and stated, "I am unemployed. I haven't had a job for two years."

"Can I receive some unemployment benefits?"

After submitting the application, the response I received was,

"You are not unemployed."

"You do not meet the criteria for unemployment."

I was not considered unemployed,

and I couldn't receive any unemployment benefits.

I want to tell you that

China's unemployment insurance is the most laughable.

Why?

Each of us, when employed,

1.5% has to contribute 0.5% of our monthly income to unemployment insurance,

while the employer contributes 1.5%.

This percentage is not low,

but if you take a look,

the payment ratio of China's unemployment insurance is extremely low.

It grows year after year like a snowball.

What does this indicate?

It indicates that China's recognition of unemployment is very, very low.

It is almost impossible to qualify for unemployment insurance

by being recognized as unemployed.

The strictness of the recognition criteria

has resulted in extremely low unemployment figures.

China's unemployment rate has long been severely distorted.

In the case of university students,

there are additional factors contributing to this distortion.

For example, when Chinese university students are about to graduate,

almost all schools require them to sign agreements with third parties

before issuing their diplomas.

What does this result in?

Massive data falsification.

If you look at all the schools,

you will find many complaints from students online

about notices from counselors or departments requiring them

to sign agreements with third parties.

If they don't sign, they won't receive their diplomas.

What is the purpose of this falsification?

On one hand,

it presents a favorable image for these prestigious universities,

and on the other hand, it fulfills the employment rate targets

set by local labor departments for these universities.

If they fail to meet the required employment rate,

the university may face penalties,

Such as the closure of certain departments.

so universities and local government departments work together to manipulate data,

leading to the actual unemployment rate among Chinese university students

being much higher than the reported statistics.

even with these distortions,

the current youth unemployment rate has already reached 21.3%.

A few days ago, the Institute of Finance at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences

released a statistical report on China's economic performance this year.

it specifically discussed the unemployment rate among Chinese university students.

According to their statistics,

among the youth unemployment rate,

two out of three individuals have received higher education,

with 42% having completed undergraduate education.

That means, currently, the higher the education level,

the more difficult it is to find employment in China.

This is reality in China.

"In the past few days, various streets in Chengdu Hi-tech Zone were recruiting people,"

"so I went to register yesterday."

"The scene inside the conference hall was overwhelming."

"It was packed with people. In our row,"

”there were six of us:"

"1 from a (Project 985) university , 1 from a (Project 211) university ,

"and the other 4 from regular undergraduate programs.

"The monthly salary we would receive was only 2,500 RMB"

"The staff there even mentioned that t"

"they don't want as many people to register next time."

"They want to raise the bar to require postgraduate degrees"

"so that there will be fewer applicants."

"I find it really scary."

"The job is just a entry-level clerk in community"

"and the monthly salary for an employee is only 2,500 RMB."

So why is it that the higher the education level,

the more difficult the employment situation becomes?

especially for university graduates who are experiencing

"graduation and immediate unemployment"?

What are the reasons behind this?

I believe the first aspect of the problem is

clearly the overwhelming number of university graduates.

This year, the number of graduates is 11.5 million,

and they will enter the job market in China in July.

But last year, the number of retirees was only 7.55 million,

with only about 14% of them being white-collar workers.

The majority came from the manufacturing and service sectors.

you can see that

the number of available positions is limited, with only 7.55 million retirees.

But there are 11.5 million new university graduates seeking employment,

creating a gap of 4 million.

The biggest issue is that

after receiving higher education,

graduates naturally aspire to work in white-collar jobs.

They do not want to become delivery drivers

or engage in manual labor.

This creates a significant structural disparity.

These university graduates desire positions

that the market cannot provide in sufficient numbers,

resulting in a significant structural gap.

This situation is a consequence of the expansion of higher education institutions in China.

"If only I hadn't gone to university."

"If I hadn't gone to university,"

"I could have been a waiter without any worries."

"But since I went to university, I can't lower my standards."

“I could have found a job without educational requirements."

“I wouldn't have to face this dilemma.”

"I really want to be a manicurist"

"But I've already completed my master's degree,"

"and my family would never accept it."

To speak frankly,

Does China really needs such a large number of university graduates?

This is a question mark

In the past years, due to the expansion of higher education institutions,

it did help stimulate domestic demand.

As a result, a large number of graduates went to universities.

but entering universities

has raised their employment expectations

Previously, they might have been willing to take on blue-collar jobs,

but now, after receiving higher education,

they aspire to white-collar jobs.

there simply aren't enough white-collar positions available.

Consequently, these individuals become job seekers in the employment market.

Of course, there may be a unique situation in China.

Chinese families attach great importance to the first job of young people.

Most families are willing to support these students

and wait for a better job for two or three years.

They are not in a hurry to see these students employed immediately.

If they cannot find a good job,

families encourage them to pursue further studies

or take civil service examinations.

but pursuing further studies or taking civil service examinations

will lead to delayed employment.

According to current statistics,

approximately 5 million people are engaged

in postgraduate studies or preparing for civil service examinations each year.

This is a substantial number.

On the other hand

even if one fails to enter postgraduate studies or become a civil servant,

many families will financially support their children

in searching for jobs for two or three years.

This is an extremely unique situation in China.

"Consider the offer from Shaolin Temple."

"Once you are officially employed by Shaolin Temple,”

"you will receive benefits such as five insurances and one housing fund."

"The basic salary for the first year is at least 80,000 RMB"

"And there is also incense commission."

"Some students eyes lit up at the news."

"Teacher, I'll go to Shaolin Temple tonight."

"Don't be impulsive."

"Shaolin Temple now has very high requirements for recruitment."

"They require at least a bachelor's degree."

"In parentheses, they prefer postgraduates."

"This afternoon, I saw that my hometown's Qingcheng Mountain"

"is recruiting Taoist priests."

"But as soon as I went in and saw the requirements,"

"They don't accept anyone above 35 years old."

"This is my graduation thesis."

"And this is my master's degree certificate."

The third aspect is that

several key industries that can accommodate employment

have encountered problems.

Statistics show that there are 3 industries in China

that accommodate the largest number of employed individuals:

internet ,real estate industry, and education and training industry

These three sectors together

account for 56% of youth employment in China.

that is more than half of employment rate

if we take a closer look at these three industries,

they have all experienced significant challenges and turbulence over the past 3 years.

First, let's talk about the internet industry,

which has undergone significant damage in recent years.

Companies like Alibaba and Tencent have faced hefty fines,

and there has been a crackdown on gaming licenses.

The entire market is undergoing reshuffling,

resulting in two main issues for these companies.

Firstly, market expectations have changed.

they used to that the market would consistently experience high growth.

and to a fast growing company

they are willing to accept graduate students

when expectations shift, companies tend to prioritize self-preservation.

their typical approach involves

stoping the recruitment of new graduates

and, if necessary, laying off older employees.

This change in expectations has affected these industries.

This change in expectations has affected these industries.

Secondly, the growth dynamics of the industry have indeed changed.

If you compare the financial reports of Alibaba and Tencent with previous years,

the difference is striking.

Alibaba's stock price has fallen back to its initial listing level.

As a result, these industries have reduced their capacity

to accommodate new university graduates.

Moving on to the real estate market, i

it has always been a crucial sector for China's economic growth

and has been a significant source of employment.

But we examine the past two to three years,

we can see that China's housing prices have been declining.

I recently came across data indicating a

noticeable decrease in the savings-to-debt ratio among Chinese households

over the past three years.

Why

This suggests a decline in people's willingness to buy homes

and a preference for saving instead.

When the desire to purchase homes decreases and the inclination to save increases,

it leads to a decline in housing prices.

We have all witnessed the recent trend of

offering down payments as incentives for home purchases,

where you only need to pay the loan installments.

This is essentially a word game,

where developers make it appear as if the housing prices have decreased by 20%

and offer a game-like experience to entice buyers.

Consequently, the real estate industry's capacity

to absorb new university graduates has also decreased.

The third, let's discuss the education and training industry.

It is a labor-intensive sector

that has undergone continuous adjustments

and rectification measures in recent years.

As a result, left a significant increase in unemployed rate within this industry,

estimated to be over 2.4 million according to statistics.

"As an English teacher"

"who still works in the training industry,"

"specifically teaching exams for studying abroad,"

"Hahaha"

"it's hard to find a more desperate profession than mine right now. "

On one hand, with so many people unemployed,

on the other hand, industries that used to accommodate university graduates

result in same situation

decreasing the capacity to accommodate university graduates

This is one aspect

The fourth aspect is the deceleration of GDP growth,

which has led to a severe employment situation.

As we mentioned earlier,

China's GDP has decreased by approximately 2% to 2.5% over the past 5 years.

Statistics show that for every 1% decrease in GDP,

about 1 million jobs are lost.

With a 2.5% decrease,

it means a reduction of approximately 2.5 million jobs each year.

Meanwhile, the number of university graduates is increasing,

but the capacity to employ them is decreasing.

This imbalance between the increase in graduates and the decreasing employment capacity

has made the job market extremely challenging.

"Basically, you can achieve a 100% employment rate,"

"but the salaries are not as high as rumored."

"The admission scores have exceeded"

"the undergraduate admission scores for three consecutive years."

"The number of students applying for this major"

"has dramatically increased since 2020."

According to a research report from the Institute

of Finance of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,

GDP decline has contributed to

over 30% of the unemployment rate among university graduates.

there is a significant indicator we can take a look

The unemployment rate over the past three year

has not followed a stable trend.

It experienced a rapid decline at the beginning of the pandemic,

followed by an increase.

Towards the end of 2020, there was a temporary improvement,

but then it started increasing again.

This rising unemployment rate can be

compared to recent data released

by the United States,

particularly China's export of goods to the US.

The important indicator is that

China is no longer

the largest importer of goods from the US,

which is the first time this has happened in several decades.

Additionally, if we examine

China's export data to major developed economies,

we can see a decline in all export figures except for Russia.

Russia has become China's favorite partner,

There is nothing we can do

but exports to Japan, Europe, and the US are decreasing.

Labor-intensive industries are also seeing a decline in their product exports.

This indicates a worsening trade environment for China.

It has been calculated that

the decline in export data contributes to

approximately 20% of the overall decline in China's GDP.

At this point, we need to address

whether this change in export patterns

is due to a lack of economic competitiveness

or changes in our diplomatic and political environment.

If it is the former,

we need to work on improving the competitiveness of Chinese products.

But if it is the latter, it means we are engaging in futile efforts.

In my view,

the most crucial reason for the transformation in China's foreign trade and exports

that China has been making enemies in the diplomatic arena.

led the international community to diversify its risks though complete decoupling

is not feasible when it comes to engaging with China,

As a risk mitigation measure,

reducing the proportion of Chinese product exports has become a reality.

The most evident example is the United States.

This has resulted in a deceleration in China's economic development

and ultimately affected the unemployment rate among Chinese youth.

Fundamentally, to be frank

China's economy heavily relies on domestic demand and its own consumption,

but it cannot be sustained without a stable external trade environment.

Maintaining a stable external trade environment

and peaceful coexistence with the rest of the world for mutual economic development

is a crucial prerequisite for China's future economic growth.

If this cannot be achieved,

more difficult times lie ahead.

Well, that's all for today. Thank you, everyone."

"I have applied and interviewed with nearly 50 companies since graduation."

"Some companies offer unpaid internships, but they don't offer you employment contract."

"But the reality is so far from that, to the point where I feel depressed."

"As an English teacher, who still works in the training industry,"

"It's hard to find a more desperate profession than mine right now."

"Hahaha"

"If you have a job, cherish it and don't easily switch jobs."

"It can easily leave you without even a meal to eat. It's really scary."

Indeed, the proves that it is difficult for the Chinese economy to be driven solely by domestic demand. If it cannot integrate into the global market, the Chinese economy will undoubtedly face significant challenges. Harmonious diplomatic relations are a prerequisite for the smooth development of foreign economic relations. If China fails to maintain its relations with major maritime and chemical nations, its economy will only deteriorate further.

English Subtitles:1866