The Death of Russia

Summary

El script explora las complejas razones detrás de la invasión de Rusia a Ucrania en 2022, argumentando que más allá de la figura de Vladimir Putin, factores geográficos, demográficos y económicos son clave. Rusia enfrenta un futuro incierto por su extensión continental difícil de gestionar, escasez de infraestructuras, problemas demográficos y una economía altamente dependiente de los hidrocarburos. La guerra se presenta como un intento fallido de resolver crisis internas y posiblemente el inicio del fin para la nación rusa, dejando en evidencia la vulnerabilidad de un enfoque histórico basado en la cantidad de territorio y población.

Takeaways

• 🌏 La invasión de Ucrania por parte de Rusia en 2022 es vista como un intento desesperado de Rusia por mantener su poder antes de su inminente colapso.
• 👤 Se sugiere que la figura de Vladimir Putin es solo una parte de la historia, y que las decisiones de Rusia como nación juegan un papel más amplio en el conflicto.
• 📉 Rusia enfrenta un futuro incierto debido a su demografía en declive, con una tasa de natalidad insuficiente para mantenerse y una alta tasa de mortalidad, especialmente entre hombres jóvenes.
• 🏔 La geografía de Rusia, con su extensión continental y difíciles condiciones climáticas, presenta desafíos significativos para la conectividad y la defensa del territorio.
• 🛣 La falta de infraestructuras de transporte eficientes y la dependencia de rutas marítimas bloqueadas o inaccesibles agravan los problemas económicos y logísticos de Rusia.
• 🏭 La economía de Rusia se ha convertido en una economía petrolera, dependiente en gran medida de la exportación de petróleo y gas natural a Europa, lo que la hace vulnerable a las sanciones y a la disminución de la demanda.
• 👥 La población de Rusia es multiétnica y se enfrenta a una crisis demográfica, lo que podría llevar a una fractura de la unidad nacional y a la independencia de regiones.
• 💥 La historia de Rusia está marcada por la opresión y el abuso del pueblo ruso por parte de sus líderes, lo que ha llevado a una estructura social similar a una horda.
• 🔄 La industrialización forzada durante la era soviética, aunque aumentó la esperanza de vida, también aceleró el colapso demográfico y la dependencia de la economía petrolera.
• 🚫 La dependencia de Rusia de su sector energético y la falta de diversificación económica podrían conducir a un colapso económico en las próximas décadas.
• ⚔ La guerra en Ucrania se presenta como un intento fallido de Rusia por recuperar su poder y territorio, lo que podría tener consecuencias catastróficas para la estabilidad regional y global.

Q & A

¿Qué evento desencadenó el conflicto que cambió la Europa moderna y el mundo en febrero de 2022?

La invasión de Ucrania por parte de Rusia, iniciada por Vladimir Putin, fue el evento que cambió la Europa moderna y el mundo en febrero de 2022.

¿Quién es considerado el rostro de la agresión rusa contra un estado soberano?

Vladimir Putin es considerado el rostro de la agresión rusa contra Ucrania, un estado soberano.

¿Cuál es la visión más amplia del conflicto más allá de la figura de Putin?

La visión más amplia del conflicto incluye factores como la geografía, la demografía y la economía de Rusia, que contribuyeron a la decisión de invadir Ucrania.

¿Por qué se considera que Rusia como nación podría desaparecer en aproximadamente 20 años?

Se considera que Rusia podría desaparecer en aproximadamente 20 años debido a crisis existenciales como la falta de un número suficiente de habitantes para mantener su crecimiento y la falta de una economía diversificada.

¿Cómo afecta la geografía de Rusia a su capacidad para desarrollar infraestructuras y cadenas de suministro a nivel nacional?

La geografía de Rusia, con más de la mitad del territorio inhabitable y difícil de conectar, hace que sea complicado desarrollar infraestructuras y cadenas de suministro a nivel nacional.

¿Por qué la estrategia histórica de Rusia durante las guerras ha sido una política de tierra quemada?

La política de tierra quemada se ha utilizado históricamente por Rusia debido a su extensa geografía; si los invasores se desmoronan antes de conquistar todo el país, esta estrategia suele ser efectiva.

¿Cómo ha cambiado la estrategia de expansión de Rusia en las recientes décadas?

En las recientes décadas, Rusia ha perdido parte de su zona occidental, lo que la ha llevado a estar más expuesta y en contacto directo con la OTAN, una organización creada específicamente para contrarrestar el poder ruso.

¿Por qué la geografía de Rusia y la falta de buenas vías navegables internas representa un desafío económico para el país?

La falta de vías navegables internas y la geografía desfavorable dificultan el transporte de bienes a bajo costo y confiable, lo que representa un desafío económico para Rusia.

¿Cómo se relaciona la crisis demográfica de Rusia con su capacidad para mantener su poderío y estabilidad?

La crisis demográfica de Rusia, caracterizada por una baja tasa de natalidad y una alta tasa de mortalidad, amenaza con debilitar su poderío y estabilidad, ya que hay menos personas para mantener la economía y la seguridad del país.

¿Cómo se describe la industrialización repentina de Rusia bajo órdenes soviéticas y sus efectos en la sociedad?

La industrialización repentina de Rusia bajo órdenes soviéticas, que incluyó forzar a la población a vivir en pequeñas viviendas y trabajar en fábricas improvisadas, inició una crisis demográfica pero también aumentó la esperanza de vida, lo que llevó a un aumento en la población de la URSS.

¿Qué papel han jugado las exportaciones de petróleo y gas natural de Rusia en su economía actual?

Las exportaciones de petróleo y gas natural son fundamentales en la economía actual de Rusia, representando más de la mitad de su perfil económico, y son esenciales para su rol como proveedor de energía a Europa.

¿Cómo podría afectar la guerra en Ucrania a la estrategia económica de Rusia basada en la exportación de recursos naturales?

La guerra en Ucrania, junto con las sanciones occidentales, podría tener efectos devastadores en la estrategia económica de Rusia basada en la exportación de recursos naturales, ya que estaría en riesgo su capacidad para suministrar a sus principales clientes europeos.

¿Qué alternativas podría considerar Rusia si se siente empujada a una esquina en términos de poder y supervivencia?

Si Rusia se siente empujada a una esquina en términos de poder y supervivencia, podría considerar la opción de utilizar su arsenal nuclear, aunque esto sería una garantía de respuesta en cadena y la muerte del país.

¿Qué implicancias podría tener la guerra en Ucrania para el futuro político y social de Rusia?

La guerra en Ucrania podría conducir a un colapso de Rusia, con la posibilidad de que surjan regiones independientes controladas por diferentes grupos étnicos o naciones, y un cambio drástico en su gobierno y estructura social.

Outlines

00:00

🌏 La Invasión de Rusia a Ucrania y sus Consecuencias

Este párrafo explora las razones detrás de la invasión de Ucrania por parte de Rusia en 2022, argumentando que más allá de la figura de Vladimir Putin, existen factores geográficos, demográficos y económicos que contribuyeron a la decisión de invadir. Se sugiere que la guerra es un intento desesperado de Rusia por mantener su poder antes de su inminente desaparición como nación en aproximadamente 20 años. Se discuten las desventajas geográficas de Rusia, su difícil conectividad y la invasibilidad de su territorio, así como la dependencia económica en los recursos naturales y la falta de infraestructura interna para el transporte de bienes.

05:01

👥 Demografía y Género en la Crítica de la Invasión

El párrafo toca en la perspectiva de que la decisión de invadir Ucrania no es solo política sino también una cuestión de supervivencia para la nación rusa. Se menciona la afirmación de Boris Johnson de que Putin no invadiría si fuera mujer, lo que resalta la crítica de género en el análisis de la situación. Además, se discute la diversidad étnica dentro de Rusia y cómo la falta de una conexión natural y la industrialización forzada han llevado a una crisis demográfica, con una tasa de natalidad insuficiente y una tasa de mortalidad elevada, particularmente entre los hombres rusos.

10:02

🏭 La Industrialización Forzosa y sus Efectos en Rusia

Este segmento examina la industrialización repentina de Rusia bajo el régimen soviético y cómo esto generó un colapso demográfico. Se describe cómo la estrategia de 'horda' utilizada por el gobierno ruso a lo largo de los siglos, basada en el uso de la cantidad de personas como un recurso, ha definido a Rusia hasta la guerra actual. Se argumenta que la industrialización rápida y la falta de un enfoque en la calidad en la producción han llevado a una dependencia en el sector energético, particularmente en el petróleo y el gas, lo que ha hecho a Rusia vulnerable a las sanciones occidentales y a la disminución de la demanda europea.

15:02

💥 El Futuro Incierto de Rusia y sus Opciones

El último párrafo reflexiona sobre el futuro de Rusia y las posibles consecuencias de su invasión a Ucrania. Se sugiere que la guerra ha sido un fracaso y representa el inicio del fin para Rusia, ya que no ha logrado sus objetivos y ha exacerbado sus problemas demográficos y económicos. Se plantea la posibilidad de que Rusia recurra al uso de armas nucleares como una opción desesperada si se siente empujada a una esquina, lo que garantizaría su propia destrucción. Finalmente, se cuestiona quién podría ser el próximo objetivo de Rusia en su lucha por mantener el poder.

Keywords

💡Invasion de Rusia a Ucrania

La 'Invasion de Rusia a Ucrania' es un evento central en el video que refiere a la decisión de Rusia de comenzar una guerra en febrero de 2022. Este concepto es fundamental para entender el tema principal del video, que es el análisis de las causas y consecuencias de la guerra y su impacto en la geopolítica y la estabilidad de Europa y el mundo.

💡Vladimir Putin

Vladimir Putin es mencionado como la figura líder detrás de la invasión, siendo él el presidente de Rusia y representando el rostro de la agresión rusa. Su papel es crucial para entender las decisiones políticas y militares que llevaron a la guerra y cómo su imagen está vinculada con la percepción pública de los eventos.

💡Geopolitítica

La 'Geopolitítica' es un concepto clave para entender cómo las decisiones de Rusia y la respuesta del mundo están influyendo en el equilibrio de poder global. El término se refiere a la interacción entre la política y la geografía, y en el video se utiliza para analizar la estrategia de Rusia y la forma en que su ubicación y recursos naturales afectan su poderío.

💡Demografía

La 'Demografía' es un tema recurrente en el video, ya que se discute cómo la estructura de la población de Rusia, su tasa de natalidad y mortalidad, y su envejecimiento afectan el futuro del país. El término se utiliza para ilustrar las crisis demográficas que Rusia enfrenta y cómo estas podrían contribuir a su declive.

💡Economía

La 'Economía' de Rusia es un aspecto fundamental del video, especialmente al discutir la dependencia de Rusia en la exportación de petróleo y gas natural. El término se refiere a la estructura económica del país y cómo su modelo basado en recursos naturales podría ser vulnerable ante las sanciones y cambios en la demanda.

💡Estrategia de defensa

La 'Estrategia de defensa' de Rusia se menciona en el contexto de su historia y su forma de luchar en guerras pasadas. El término se refiere a las tácticas militares y políticas que Rusia ha utilizado para protegerse, como la política de tierra quemada y la expansión territorial hasta encontrar barreras naturales o militares.

💡NATO

La 'OTAN' (Organización del Tratado del Atlántico Norte) es una alianza militar que se creó para contrarrestar la influencia soviética y, posteriormente, la poderosa Rusia. En el video, se discute cómo la adhesión de países como Ucrania a la OTAN podría representar una amenaza para Rusia y cómo esto podría haber influido en su decisión de invadir Ucrania.

💡Crisis demográfica

La 'Crisis demográfica' es un concepto clave en el video, referido a la disminución de la tasa de natalidad y el envejecimiento de la población de Rusia. El término se utiliza para explicar cómo esta crisis podría llevar al colapso económico y social del país, exacerbando sus problemas de estabilidad y poder.

💡Petróleo y gas natural

El 'Petróleo y gas natural' son recursos naturales esenciales para la economía de Rusia, como se discute en el video. El término se refiere a las exportaciones energéticas que representan más de la mitad del perfil económico de Rusia y que son fundamentales para su modelo de economía de exportación.

💡Estrategia de supervivencia

La 'Estrategia de supervivencia' de Rusia se menciona en el contexto de la invasión a Ucrania y la percepción de que podría ser un intento desesperado de mantener el poder y la influencia rusos. El término se refiere a las acciones que podría tomar Rusia para asegurar su estabilidad y poder frente a las amenazas internas y externas.

Highlights

Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022 marked a significant shift in modern Europe and global politics.

Vladimir Putin is often seen as the primary instigator of the war, but the situation is more complex, involving numerous factors and players.

Boris Johnson's comment suggests that if Putin were a woman, the invasion might not have occurred, drawing parallels to Catherine the Great's expansionist policies.

The speaker argues that Russia's existential crisis, including a predicted cultural and societal decline within 20 years, is a key motivator for the invasion.

Russia's vast geography, while seemingly advantageous, presents significant challenges in terms of habitability and infrastructure.

The country's flat terrain has historically made it vulnerable to invasions, leading to a defensive strategy of retreating into the expansive land.

Recent geopolitical shifts have seen former buffer zones between Russia and the West become part of NATO, heightening Russian concerns over security.

Russia's lack of internal waterways and difficult sea routes hinder its economic potential and trade connectivity.

The speaker posits that Russia's historical strategy of treating its people as a horde to ensure national security has shaped its governance since the 1300s.

Demographic issues in Russia, including a low birth rate and high mortality rate among men, threaten the country's long-term stability.

Russia's rapid industrialization under Soviet rule led to a demographic crisis, with a focus on quantity over quality of life.

The speaker suggests that Russia's historical strength was due to its large population, but this advantage is now diminishing.

Post-Soviet Russia's economy has become heavily reliant on petroleum exports, making it vulnerable to external economic pressures.

The invasion of Ukraine is presented as a last-ditch effort by Russia to reclaim its power and address its demographic and economic challenges.

The speaker warns that if Russia feels cornered, it might resort to using its vast nuclear arsenal, which would have catastrophic global consequences.

The war in Ukraine is seen as an admission by Russia of its impending collapse and a desperate attempt to retain power.

The speaker concludes by highlighting the uncertainty and fear of Russia's future actions as it grapples with its decline.

Transcripts

in february of 2022 russia decided to

invade ukraine and started a war which

has changed modern europe and the world

who caused this war vladimir putin of

course or was it sure putin certainly

triggered this war isn't evil human and

is the face of russian aggression

against a sovereign state but that's not

the full picture we love to put a face

onto complex issues facing literally

millions of individual players and

people boris johnson even said putin

would not have invaded if he was a woman

something which catherine the great

would cry about in her grave also having

invaded crimea if we were to write a

list of reasons why russia invaded

ukraine many people would put putin as

number one but i would say that number

one is the fact that russia as a nation

as a culture as a society will no longer

exist in around 20 years or so and this

is a last-ditch effort to keep russia in

any sort of power before it's too late

what

russia has always existed in our modern

world we can't have a world without it

well it might seem like russia is big

and mighty and scary but when you look

at the details of what makes russia

russia some flaws start to show and some

existential crises are on the horizon

i'll show you how russian politicians

didn't decide to invade ukraine but how

russian geography demographics and

economics made it invade and yet the

country will still fail i mean the war

has already been a disaster for russia

instead of steamrolling tiny old ukraine

they actually put up a good fight

cementing russia's future as a dead

nation killing its expert-led economy

with sanctions and weakening the

demographic and geographic weaknesses it

already had this war is the beginning of

the end for russia this is the death of

russia

how can i be so bold to claim this i

mean let's look at russia it's

absolutely massive russia is by far the

largest country on earth stretching from

europe to china as a continent-sized

country they have so much land to

develop for themselves yes and no no as

in more than half of russia looks like

this and is pretty much impossible to

live in only having small pockets of

civilization wherever there is oil or

minerals to be mined that leaves all of

this land uninhabited but yes as in

there's still a lot of actually

habitable land to the south and west of

russia here it is forested it is flat

and it is empty it is so hard to connect

any country-wide infrastructure supply

chains together let alone to any

consumers who want russian goods and

part of being a flat country is just

naturally getting invaded all the time

the russians have been invaded so many

times and have not been able to defend

themselves with their land that their

main strategy and wars has been a

scorched earth policy basically burn

everything down and retreat into your

ever expansive land it generally works

because the russians have so much land

that the invaders break down before they

take the whole country the other

strategy to keep the russian corps safe

was to expand until they hit any natural

or military barriers it took them across

northern asia to the pacific hitting

these seas and these mountains and into

the northern european plain into these

forests around modern-day poland to

romania but in recent years they lost

this western part and are now back here

and what used to be part of them are now

part of nato an organization which was

specifically made to counter russian

power what used to be their natural

buffer zone between the west and russian

corps was now the west touching the

russian core sure it's likely they won't

attack russia right now but what if

things change nato has many many

different ways to invade russia and take

moscow if they wanted to something which

is everything against their historical

strategy as we'll see and we're not done

with the awful russian geography yet

they have another major enemy the water

transporting goods on land is fine and

all but it's expensive to set up and

maintain especially when your country

takes up a whole continent transporting

goods by water is cheap easy and

reliable the most successful countries

in history are those that have internal

waterways or mastered the ocean russia

doesn't have any water okay that's an

exaggeration of course they touch seas

and have rivers but they're pretty much

useless the pacific seas are so far away

from the russian core over land that it

gets rid of the advantage water even had

and its baltic and black sea routes are

blocked to get out of the black sea

russia needs to bypass crimea the

turkish straits the greek aegean sea and

then depending on the route either the

suez canal and babel mandeb or italy and

the spanish slash british moroccan

straight at gibraltar that's a lot of

friends they need to make that they

don't have right now to get out of the

baltic sea they need to pass finland the

three baltic brothers sweden poland

germany denmark the uk and maybe france

norway and the netherlands these are

less friends they need to make and more

countries that absolutely despise russia

after centuries of living together and

would block the route in a heartbeat

okay fine russia won't use his ports how

about its rivers still no most major

rivers flow north to the arctic ocean

which is a little too cold to sail boats

in the ones that don't flow there like

the volga flow to the caspian sea which

can't be escaped from

then some rivers flow to the black and

baltic seas which run into the same

problems as the ports there and almost

all rivers in russia freeze anyways

water has never been a strong suit

that's a major reason why they wanted

crimea first out of any ukrainian

invasion it lets them have a hope of

naval power so to get anything done in

russia with his open flat land and its

land transportation-based population and

economy the russian governments always

treated the russian people like hordes

keep that in mind the horde-like

structure that the government has always

used has defined modern russia since the

1300s up until this very war low density

from low connectivity and awful weather

conditions meant russia's population was

always small and focused on sustenance

agriculture russia never naturally

industrialized but when they suddenly

were forced to it created another crisis

something which invading another country

will not fix

the russian people have a much greater

problem than their geography their

people no i swear it's not a racist

thing it's a numbers thing they don't

have enough people to keep russia safe

or growing first of all many people

don't realize how multi-ethnic russia is

only about three-quarters of russia is

even russian if things get bad i'm sure

the other quarter in the caucasus or

step or out in the boonies of siberia

wouldn't mind some extra autonomy from

moscow especially with the lack of

waterways connections and very low

population density but along with those

fringes who could split off russia also

does not have enough russians see back

in the ussr the government maybe kind of

forced everyone into a tiny apartment

and made them get to work it

kick-started industrialization but

everyone now lives in a tiny box instead

of on a huge farm they have less kids

the faster you industrialize the faster

people stop having kids and the faster

the eventual collapse russia bolted and

industrialized in about 15 years under

soviet orders the russian birth rate

right now is around 1.5 kids for every

women below the 2.1 needed to maintain

replacement levels this means that

russia is losing people every death in

russia is a forever death if you like to

be cynical the main places in russia

actually gaining people are those away

from the court which happened to be

those of different ethnicities like the

tatars and the chechnyans along with

that a soviet history of not exactly the

nicest conditions for political freedom

or food security killed many russians

and the brutality of the world wars

cemented its eventual demographic crisis

you can trace the events of russian

history on its population pyramid quite

nicely

here are the world wars the famine in

between them soviet stagnation

perestroika basically liberalizing the

country and then the collapse of the

union the bulge down here is an echo of

their baby boom here you can see how

many females are up here with no male

counterpart a product of the world wars

and alcohol russian men whether through

alcoholism suicide or crime and opioid

usage after government breakdown from

the ussr's collapse are likely to die

before 60 years old during the 2000s

young men in russia were six times more

likely to die than young men in iraq

during american occupation and that was

during russian peace and prosperity

the russian people are quite literally

drinking themselves to death so a

shrinking birth rate and growing death

rate which crossed after the soviet

union fell meant that russia's

population has been in decline since the

90s this is before kovitt killed an

extra 800 000 to a million russians and

the war in ukraine is killing the

remaining young men this is russia's

last chance that it has a young male

population and a middle-aged population

for that matter too but it's unlikely a

war would fix that so if there is a

demographic crisis on their way where

the russians are aging out of any

consumption or expert-led economy and

their geography means that they are

always paranoid of an attack how did

they even get so powerful in the first

place weren't they always doomed from

the start

russia both was and was not meant to be

a great power the whole weak geography

and modern demographic things are a

drake to the current russia but

throughout history they didn't have this

demographic collapse to worry about in

fact they had a growing population for

the most part and as just a physically

big chunk of land they had a lot of

people compared to other feudal european

kingdoms modern russia was made by the

tragedy and horrors of the mongol

conquests in northern asia the russian

people then essentially traded

prosperity for security in numbers to

fight out any other invaders and there

were a lot living in the step and all

from this the russian rulers always

treated the russian people badly more as

a group of numbers to throw at their

problems it was like a pack animal

strategy some will die in any invasion

but the ones on the inside will survive

like a horde but since the russian

people lived too far away from one

another they could never industrialize

focusing on impoverished farming until

they got a wake-up call too actually

first was the russo-japanese war in

which a supposedly inferior asian nation

absolutely wiped the floor with russia

and second was world war one the

russians were under-equipped had no

industry and lacked any supply chains or

coherent transportation methods their

strategy of just throwing people at

fronts and moving forward on flatland

broke in world war one when the front

didn't move and it ended with millions

of russians dying in the trenches the

war was brutal and it's no surprise

russia pulled out of it having a

revolution and then a civil war now

turning communist and collectivist no

surprise that a community driven united

in grief horde-like population would be

the first one ever to try out a

communist government the forced

industrialization by shoving people into

small apartments and makeshift factories

which would make osha cry kickstarted

demographic collapse but it also made

life expectancy rise causing more people

to live in the ussr than ever before

this is what made russia rise to power

it simply had a ton of people but the

whole communist stick still didn't

change the surf-like conditions but the

leaders couldn't keep the population

poor forever they needed something for

themselves to get rich so quotas were

made based on numbers not value and

extra production was taken it made

people cut a lot of corners farmers

stopped growing grain because their

extra profit was not going to themselves

mass famines ensued steel workers often

made their plates too small or too thins

to meet the number quotas soviet

equipment failed as a result there is no

coherent supply chain or communication

that failed equipment took a long time

to be made soviet cars planes tractors

buildings rockets and military equipment

were all made by cutting corners and

they all suck no offense to feed this

industrialization they took from the

farmers which led to you guessed it

famine and if you complained you guessed

it you got a free trip to siberia and

then world war ii happened and oh boy it

was a killer literally the throwing

people at germans and scorched earth

policies killed over 15 percent of the

entire country mainly civilians the

horrors of the soviet union and before

led to this high death rate and low

birth rate but there is hope in the 60s

when the ussr became a major producer of

oil and gas leading to more people

leading to them realizing life sucks

leading to perestroika the leaders

easing up a bit on the stringency of the

soviet union turns out if you give the

people a little bit of freedom they want

the full thing and the soviet bloc

crumbled in the early 90s including

itself good for the people maybe bad for

the whole pack animal strategy after

1991 russia was in free fall their

geopolitical strategy just broke the cut

in state spending aka collapse of all

government services and drug problems

led to a death rate that would kill the

nation in 50 years and russians were

leaving in droves especially educated

ones not only that but their buffer

states turned into their enemies joining

nato and the eu i guess that's what

happens when you treat them like your

own pawns

keep in mind this safety and number

strategy has kept the russians together

since the 1300s and it all ended in 1991

it was how russia was born in the first

place it didn't matter if you didn't

have natural defenses you had numbers it

didn't matter if you didn't have

industry you had numbers but this

strategy also killed its birth rate and

after those buffer states vanished and

the population literally halved after

1991 from the soviets collapsed there

was a crisis without this strategy would

there even be a russia the answer is no

and the ukraine war was a last-ditch

attempt to fix that

after 1991 there was chaos

hyperinflation corruption and oligarchs

taking over russia economically their

industry crashed after the collapse of

the soviet union but their energy sector

didn't it didn't take long for a new

russia one under vladimir putin to find

its new economic purpose in 1999 the

answer two words or i guess one word

petrostate russia is a key expert of

many crucial materials sure minerals

ores food fertilizer blah blah blah but

there is nothing quite like their

petroleum oil and natural gas exports

they account for over half of their

whole profile then ores and then metals

they love digging stuff up in their

massive territory and shipping it

outwards but shipping is not easy

especially with no water

so they use thousands of kilometer long

pipes to supply their oil to mainly

europe their pipes being mainly built in

the soviet era and where the west and

east blocks met this means their pipes

pretty much don't go past germany and

the former yugoslavia but it also means

these places with huge manufacturing

capacity get an easy source of energy

now while this might seem great for the

russians as they're essentially trapping

europe especially germany become their

sole supplier of energy and they do love

natural resource-based threats it might

be more of a trap for the russians see

russia has almost no internal demand due

to their boomer age demographic

structure but europe is also aging out

of demand too but before that russia is

aging out of an export-led middle-aged

demographic not only that but this is

pretty much all russia has they've

become a one-trick pony of an oil and

metal supplier to europe they are

extremely vulnerable to i don't know

western sanctions or any drop in

european demand or germany booting up

coal based energy again

this export-oriented natural

resource-based economy works better than

the industrial command-driven economy

until there is any slight disruption

among their energy supply lines any one

pipeline getting blown up would have

great effects on russia any slight

disruption with turkey or greece or

denmark or any of the other 20 countries

would have grave effects on their oil

that actually goes by sea so once again

demographics have screwed russia over

only having around 10 to 20 years left

before not just demographic collapse but

economic collapse and i think it was

abroad a little early after massive

sanctions on all things russia the one

advantage the country has going into an

economic collapse or a world in which

trade outside of russia is greatly

reduced is that russia at least has

enough food and enough fuel to keep

itself running the rest of the country

will suffer though

so if russia has a weak land a

demographic crisis and a breakdown of

the strategy that made russia russian

why is invading ukraine the answer kind

of access to more people although they

would need to control a country of 45

million hard tasks kind of to getting

more land and sea lanes back they do

want that sweet sweet buffer and human

meat shield and kind of getting some

industry back ukraine is an agricultural

powerhouse russia wouldn't mind that

their economy has been in free fall

since 1991 and its new strategy of

becoming a petroc exporter to europe

will fail within a decade or two

their population was destroyed from

years of soviet abuse and even if they

restored their borders they would still

have a demographic collapse to get its

power old economy and honestly its pride

back russia wants its old borders of

course since all these states are now

nato and eu-affiliated ukraine was the

best choice i mean what russia saw when

they looked at ukraine was a flat weak

disorganized divided country and to be

fair to russia it was all of those

things ukraine was only supposed to be

the start of years of war getting their

old borders back ukraine was the test

ground and it failed badly for the

russians the war is a stalemate

signifying that russia is already done

this is the final nail in their coffin

american and european strategists could

go home and cheer that oh my god russia

can't even take over ukraine but then

the next day they'll come back terrified

and sad that oh my god russia can't even

take over ukraine if this is really a

war of russian survival then there's

another much scarier option they can use

the n-word no not that n-word nukes the

russians have the largest nuclear

arsenal on earth if the russians really

feel backed into a corner trying to hold

on to any russian power nukes definitely

are not out of the question it's their

final option but if they do use it they

are guaranteeing the death of russia

anyways after they will be nuked

countlessly in retaliation a new russia

after this crisis could have an

independent step caucuses siberia

chinese japanese controlled regions or

muslim controlled regions or new

government i don't know the details what

i do know is by declaring this war in

ukraine russia has all but admitted that

they know russia is going to collapse

and they will do anything to stay in

power no matter the consequences the

beginning of the end of russia is here

but they are still here to stay for a

couple of decades as an increasingly

panicked russia tries to keep power a

scary question for border countries

comes up the question isn't are the

russians going to swing at someone to

stay in power they've already done that

the question is who else will the

russians swing at