Urban Warfare 2.0: A Conversation with John Spencer (Episode #366)

Summary

In this insightful podcast, Sam Harris interviews John Spencer, an expert in urban warfare and Chair of Urban Warfare Studies at West Point, to dissect the complexities of the conflict in Gaza. Spencer, with 25 years of military experience and a deep understanding of urban combat, offers a military perspective on the challenges Israel faces against Hamas. They discuss the unique aspects of this conflict, including the extensive tunnel systems used by Hamas, the concept of human shields, and the difficulties in distinguishing between combatants and non-combatants in dense urban environments. The conversation also touches on the importance of managing global perception, the potential consequences if Hamas is not defeated, and the broader implications for the Middle East, including the roles of Hezbollah and Iran. Spencer emphasizes the importance of adhering to the law of war and the ethical conduct of military operations, while also acknowledging the limitations and potential misinterpretations of social media as a source of information on war.

Takeaways

• 🎓 John Spencer, an expert in urban warfare, discusses the complexities of the Israel-Gaza conflict, emphasizing the unique challenges Israel faces due to Hamas's use of civilian human shields and subterranean warfare.
• 📈 Spencer highlights that Israel's response to Hamas's aggression on October 7th was more measured than many realize, with efforts made to minimize civilian casualties despite the density of the urban environment and the scale of Hamas's tunnel network.
• 🚧 The discussion underscores the difficulty of distinguishing between combatants and non-combatants in Gaza, where Hamas intentionally operates amidst civilian populations and uses them as shields.
• 🤔 Spencer questions the narrative that Israel is intentionally maximizing civilian casualties, arguing that such an interpretation misrepresents the realities of urban warfare and the strategies employed by both sides.
• 🌐 The podcast touches on the role of social media in shaping perceptions of the conflict, with a deluge of information and misinformation creating a distorted view of events on the ground.
• 🏛 Spencer criticizes Israel's public relations strategy, suggesting that not embedding journalists has led to a failure in countering the prevailing negative narrative.
• 🛰️ The importance of accurate intelligence in warfare is emphasized, with Spencer noting that Israel's actions are guided by the best information available at the time, which is key to understanding the law of war and potential war crimes.
• 💣 The discussion explores the concept of 'human sacrifice' by Hamas, where they intentionally put their own civilians at risk to achieve political and military objectives.
• 🕍 Spencer suggests that a two-state solution is not currently viable due to the asymmetrical goals of Israel and Palestinian groups like Hamas, who prioritize the destruction of Israel over the establishment of a Palestinian state.
• ⛔ The aftermath of conflict poses significant challenges, with the need for international cooperation to rebuild and establish a secure and peaceful governance in Gaza.
• ⏳ Spencer warns of the broader implications of the conflict, particularly the role of Iran in backing Hamas and Hezbollah, and the need for a global response to address the threat they pose to regional stability.

Q & A

What is the significance of John Spencer's background in understanding urban warfare?

John Spencer's extensive military experience, including combat tours in Iraq and his academic focus on urban warfare, provides him with a unique perspective to analyze and discuss the complexities of military operations in dense urban areas and megacities, which is highly relevant to the situation in Gaza.

How does the misinformation regarding the conflict in Gaza affect public perception?

The misinformation can lead to confusion and a skewed understanding of the conflict. It can result in the propagation of false narratives, which may not accurately represent the actions of the IDF or the nature of the conflict, thus influencing public opinion in a potentially biased or incorrect manner.

What challenges does the IDF face in urban warfare that are unique to Gaza?

The IDF faces challenges such as the dense urban environment, the presence of large civilian populations intermixed with combatants, the extensive tunnel systems used by Hamas, and the need to balance military necessity with the aim to minimize civilian casualties.

How does the use of human shields by Hamas affect the dynamics of the conflict?

The use of human shields by Hamas complicates the conflict by placing civilians in harm's way, which can lead to increased civilian casualties. It also forces the IDF to take additional precautions to avoid harming civilians, potentially hindering their operational effectiveness.

What is the role of social media in the Gaza conflict?

Social media plays a significant role in the Gaza conflict by providing real-time information and footage, which can influence public perception. However, it can also contribute to the spread of misinformation and can be used to disseminate propaganda.

How does the concept of 'plausible deniability' apply to state-backed terrorist operations?

Plausible deniability refers to the ability of a state actor to deny responsibility for actions conducted by proxy forces or non-state actors it supports. This tactic allows state actors like Iran to engage in conflict indirectly, avoiding direct blame or retaliation while still pursuing their strategic objectives.

What are the legal and ethical considerations for the IDF in distinguishing between combatants and non-combatants in the context of urban warfare?

The IDF is bound by the laws of war to distinguish between combatants and non-combatants, aiming to minimize harm to civilians. Ethically, they must also consider the societal values they represent, ensuring their actions align with international humanitarian law and the moral code of their society.

What are the historical precedents for the use of tunnels in warfare, and how does Hamas's tunnel network in Gaza differ?

Tunnels have been used in various conflicts for infiltration, evasion, and military operations. However, Hamas's extensive tunnel network in Gaza is unique in its scale, purposefully built under civilian areas to serve as a defensive and offensive strategy, complicating the IDF's efforts to counter it without causing civilian harm.

How does the concept of victory in urban warfare differ from traditional warfare?

In urban warfare, victory is not solely defined by the defeat of enemy combatants but also involves the preservation of civilian life, the restoration of order, and the establishment of a stable environment. It requires a nuanced approach that considers the complexities of urban environments and the long-term implications of military actions.

What are the potential consequences of Israel's actions in Gaza for its international relations and reputation?

Israel's actions in Gaza can significantly impact its international relations and reputation, with potential accusations of war crimes, human rights violations, and the impact on civilian populations. The country must balance its military objectives with diplomatic considerations and the court of global public opinion.

How does the perception of the conflict in Gaza change when considering the broader geopolitical context, including the roles of Iran and Hezbollah?

Considering the broader geopolitical context highlights the complexity of the conflict, with Iran and Hezbollah's involvement adding layers of proxy warfare and regional power dynamics. This context can shift perceptions of the conflict from a localized dispute to a front in a larger struggle for regional influence and security.

Outlines

00:00

🎙️ Introduction and Expertise on Urban Warfare

Sam Harris introduces the podcast episode, highlighting the discussion on the recent events in Gaza. His guest, John Spencer, is an expert in urban warfare with a background in military operations and academic research. Spencer has served in the Army, participated in combat tours in Iraq, and is well-published on the subject. The conversation aims to analyze the complexities of warfare in urban and subterranean environments, particularly focusing on the Israel-Gaza conflict.

05:01

🌐 The Nature of Hamas's Attacks and Urban Warfare

The discussion delves into the nature of Hamas's attacks, the challenges of distinguishing combatants from non-combatants, and the societal values reflected in such conflicts. They also cover the number of casualties in Gaza, the distinction between combatants and non-combatants, the double standards faced by the IDF, and criticisms of Israel's military actions. The unique aspects of the Gaza war, including Hamas's use of human shields and the complexities of underground warfare, are also explored.

10:03

📹 The Misinformation and Media Coverage of the Gaza Conflict

The conversation addresses the misinformation surrounding the Gaza conflict and the challenges of obtaining accurate information. Despite the unprecedented level of visibility due to social media, there is a significant amount of confusion and misinterpretation of events. The participants discuss the role of Hamas's videos, the real-time analysis of events, and the importance of understanding the context in which the war is taking place.

15:05

🏭 Analyzing the Uniqueness of the Gaza Conflict

John Spencer shares his expertise on urban warfare to analyze the situation in Gaza. They discuss the unique aspects of the conflict, including the jubilation of combatants crossing the border and the public's reaction to the violence. The conversation also touches on the cultural asymmetry between how different societies perceive and react to war and violence.

20:07

🤔 The Complexity of Distinguishing Combatants from Non-Combatants

The discussion focuses on the complexities of distinguishing between combatants and non-combatants in the context of the Gaza conflict. It addresses the challenges faced by the IDF in differentiating between innocent civilians and Hamas members, the cultural differences in the conduct of war, and the ethical considerations that come into play.

25:09

📉 The Numbers and Proportion of Combatants to Civilians

The conversation examines the numbers of casualties in Gaza and the proportion of combatants to non-combatants. It questions the reliability of the numbers provided by various sources, including the Gaza Health Ministry, which is affiliated with Hamas. The discussion also highlights the difficulty of ascertaining accurate casualty figures in the midst of an urban conflict.

30:10

🚨 The Allegations Against Israel and the IDF

The participants discuss the widespread allegations against Israel and the IDF, including accusations of war crimes, genocide, and collective punishment. They explore the validity of these claims and the context in which they are made, emphasizing the importance of understanding the law of war and the challenges faced by the IDF in urban combat situations.

35:11

💣 The IDF's Approach to Minimizing Civilian Casualties

The discussion highlights the IDF's efforts to minimize civilian casualties, despite the unique challenges posed by the Gaza conflict. It addresses the strategies employed by the IDF, including waiting periods, evacuation notices, and the use of technology to warn civilians. The conversation also touches on the criticism of Israel's public relations approach during the conflict.

40:12

🕳️ The Challenge of Tunnel Warfare and the IDF's Response

The conversation delves into the complexities of tunnel warfare in Gaza, discussing the extensive network built by Hamas and the innovative methods used by the IDF to counter this threat. It explores the use of robots, explosives, and other tactics to neutralize the tunnel networks while considering the potential presence of hostages.

45:13

🔍 The Misinterpretation of Visual Evidence in War

The participants discuss the challenges of interpreting visual evidence from a conflict zone, particularly the misinterpretation of videos showing civilian casualties. They emphasize the importance of understanding the context and the law of war when evaluating such evidence, and the dangers of drawing conclusions without a comprehensive understanding of the situation.

50:16

🏙️ The Aftermath of Destroying Hamas's Military Capability

The discussion considers the potential aftermath of dismantling Hamas's military capabilities, including the need for a viable governance structure in Gaza and the challenges of rebuilding and establishing a new framework for peace. It also touches on the broader implications for the Middle East and the role of the international community in supporting a post-conflict Gaza.

55:17

🤝 The Role of International Actors and the Prospects of Peace

The conversation concludes with a discussion on the role of international actors in facilitating peace in the region, the need for a fundamental change in the approach towards Iran, and the importance of recognizing the existential threats posed by non-state actors backed by Iran. It emphasizes the complexity of achieving a two-state solution and the importance of addressing the root causes of conflict.

Keywords

💡Urban Warfare

Urban warfare refers to the use of military tactics and operations in urban areas, which are characterized by high population density and infrastructure complexity. In the context of the video, John Spencer's expertise in urban warfare is central as he analyzes the conflict in Gaza, highlighting the challenges of conducting military operations in densely populated areas.

💡Hamas

Hamas is a Palestinian Islamist political organization and militant group that has been a key player in the Israel-Gaza conflict. The video discusses Hamas's tactics, including the use of tunnels and human shields, and the complexities these present for the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) in distinguishing between combatants and non-combatants.

💡Israel Defense Forces (IDF)

The IDF is the military forces of the State of Israel. In the video, the IDF's actions and strategies in response to Hamas's tactics are a primary focus. The discussion includes the IDF's efforts to minimize civilian casualties and the challenges it faces in urban warfare scenarios.

💡Human Shields

The use of human shields involves placing non-combatants near military objectives to deter enemy attacks due to the risk of collateral damage. The video script mentions Hamas's use of human shields as a strategy, which complicates military operations and raises ethical concerns.

💡

💡Terrorism

Terrorism is the use of violence, especially targeted against civilians, to achieve political objectives. The video discusses the acts of terrorism related to the conflict in Gaza, particularly the planning and execution of attacks by non-state actors like Hamas.

💡Law of War

The law of war, also known as the law of armed conflict, governs the conduct of armed forces during warfare. The video touches on the importance of adhering to the law of war, especially concerning the treatment of civilians and combatants, and the challenges of applying these laws in the context of urban warfare.

💡Civilian Casualties

Civilian casualties refer to the unintended harm or death of non-combatants during military operations. The script discusses the high number of civilian casualties reported in the Gaza conflict and the controversy surrounding these figures, as well as the efforts by the IDF to minimize such casualties.

💡Tunnel Warfare

Tunnel warfare involves the use of underground tunnels for military purposes, such as infiltration, concealment, or launching attacks. The video highlights the extensive tunnel systems used by Hamas in Gaza, which presents a significant challenge for the IDF in terms of detection and neutralization.

💡Counternarrative

A counternarrative is an opposing or alternative story or explanation. In the context of the video, the term refers to Israel's struggle to communicate its perspective and justify its actions in the face of international criticism and misinformation about the conflict.

💡Misinformation

Misinformation is false or misleading information that is spread, often unintentionally. The video discusses the role of social media in spreading misinformation about the conflict, leading to widespread confusion and misunderstanding about the nature of the war and the actions of the IDF.

💡Two-State Solution

The two-state solution refers to the establishment of two sovereign states for Israelis and Palestinians in the region of Palestine. The video script touches on the concept as a potential resolution to the conflict, but also acknowledges the complexities and challenges involved, particularly in light of the actions of Hamas.

Highlights

John Spencer, an expert in urban warfare, shares his insights on the complexities of military operations in dense urban areas and megacities.

Discussion on the unique challenges Israel faced during the conflict in Gaza, including the scale of Hamas's tunnel system and the use of human shields.

Analysis of the double standards and misinformation surrounding the Israel Defense Forces' (IDF) conduct during the conflict.

Spencer highlights the importance of distinguishing between combatants and non-combatants in the context of urban warfare.

The podcast addresses the difficulties in interpreting videos of combat and the potential for misrepresenting the actions of military forces.

Sam Harris and John Spencer delve into the strategic use of tunnels by Hamas and the innovative countermeasures employed by the IDF.

Examining the role of social media in the conflict, with real-time footage affecting public opinion and the challenges of managing an information war.

The ethical considerations of warfare, including the proportionality of response and the efforts made by the IDF to minimize civilian casualties.

Spencer's perspective on the long-term strategic implications of the conflict for Israel, Hamas, and the broader Middle East.

The potential aftermath of the conflict and the complexities involved in rebuilding and re-establishing governance in Gaza post-Hamas.

Discussion on the potential for a two-state solution and the prerequisites for a peaceful coexistence between Israel and Palestine.

The implications of Iran's involvement in the conflict and the broader regional instability caused by its proxy wars.

Assessment of the effectiveness of Israel's defensive systems, such as the Iron Dome, and the impact on deterrence and perceptions of existential threats.

Exploration of the potential actions and strategies that could be employed against Hezbollah, given the evolving nature of the conflict.

The necessity for a change in approach towards Iran, with considerations for the broader geopolitical consequences of direct military action.

Transcripts

[Music]

[Music]

welcome to the making sense podcast this

is Sam

Harris well it's been pretty crazy out

there on college campuses

I will have much more to say about that

shortly but today I'm bringing you a

podcast that I promised in a previous

episode where I said I would talk to

someone who is an expert in urban

Warfare who could help me analyze just

what has gone on in Gaza today I'm

speaking with John Spencer John

currently serves as the chair of urban

Warfare studies at the Modern War

Institute at West Point he is the

co-director of the urban Warfare project

and host of the Urban War project

podcast he's also a founding member of

the international working group on

Subterranean

Warfare John served 25 years in the Army

having held ranks from private to

Sergeant First Class and second

Lieutenant to Major he was an active

duty army officer during two combat

tours in Iraq his research focuses on

military operations in dense urban areas

mega cities and urban and Subterranean

Warfare John also holds a master of

policy management from Georgetown

University and his writing has appeared

in the New York Times The Wall Street

Journal The Washington Post foreign

policy and many other Publications and

he's the author of the book

understanding Urban Warfare John and I

cover Israel's response to October 7th

from top to bottom we discussed the

nature of hamas's attacks on October 7th

what was most surprising about them the

the difficulty in distinguishing Hamas

from the rest of the population in Gaza

combatants as a reflection of a

society's values how many people have

been killed so far in Gaza the

proportion of combatants and

non-combatants the double standards to

which the IDF is held the worst

criticism that can be made of Israel and

the IDF so far intentions versus

results what is unique about the war in

Gaza hamas's use of human Shields what

it would mean to defeat them what the

IDF has accomplished so far the

destruction of the Gaza tunnel system

the details of underground Warfare the

rescue of hostages how non-combatants

become combatants how difficult it is to

interpret videos of combat what victory

would look like the likely aftermath of

the war a possible war with hisbah

Iran's attack on Israel and what to do

about Iran and other topics

this one is a PSA so no pay wall as

always if you find what we're doing here

valuable and you want to support the

podcast you can do that by subscribing

at samh harris.org and now I bring you

John

Spencer I am here with John Spencer John

thanks for joining me Sam thanks for

having me so uh I will have introduced

you in the the intro here but um perhaps

you can State what your background is

and and how you come to this

conversation sure so I spent 25 years in

the US military as a infantry Soldier

and officer and then spent two combat

deployments to Iraq both in the invasion

and at the end but then I went you know

throughout my career I went my last job

was teaching strategy at West Point

where I stood up a research center and

started researching you know all Urban

battles and I became this chair of urban

Warfare studies that I am now really

when I left the military I began this

endeavor to travel the world into combat

zones to understand them in real time

that has led me to where I am now where

I can uniquely provide people I hope

understanding of the Israel's war

against Hamas and Gaza which is

overwhelmingly Urban which is what I

specialize in yes I want to get your

expertise here on on Urban Warfare and

um use that to analyze what's happening

uh in Gaza and what what isn't happening

there's I think there's a a lot of

misinformation about the nature of the

war and how it compares to other

conflicts where else have you witnessed

Urban Warfare Beyond being in your own

tours in the military when I left the

military in 2018 and really took full

direction of my new job to study it

academically I started I went to Mumbai

to study the 2008 Terror attacks which

was on a you know 10 terrorist took down

a whole city I went to Israel multiple

times studying past Wars so like the

2002 Battle of Janine the the Battle of

su City when the fullscale invasion of

Ukraine by Russia started I started

going into Ukraine so I've been four

times since the War Began studying the

urban battle so key bmot Mar opal and

then of course I've been to Gaza twice

since the beginning of the Israel Hamas

War interesting that you went to Mumbai

that's something that I've thought a lot

about in the aftermath of October 7th

because it's it's really this pure case

of jihadism that has nothing to do with

Israel obviously has very little to do

with Jews except for the fact that they

did manage to find some Jews to kill in

Mumbai but um I'm interested to hear

what that was like before we hit our

main topic sure I mean I also I forgot

to mention that I also went into

nagarana kabach there was a war there in

2020 and there's been another one but I

went in after that war to it ended in a

major Urban battle over the Battle of

shusa but going back to Mumbai I mean it

was just fascinating in the planning

that went into it and like you said I'm

one of they basically hit five targets

simultaneously at the exact same you

moment with small teams of terrorists

dressed as civilians trying to blend in

and one of them being the habad two

hotels a train station but overwhelmed

the systems and there are you know

totally at a different scale a lot of

similarities between the invasion of

Israel on October 7th and the Mumbai

attacks on how it kind of overloaded the

system yeah yeah that was um it's all

one thing that's fascinating about this

is that um to my knowledge

India did not respond am I right about

that looks I haven't heard about what

India has done in response not an

indirect action because it you know it

was verified by intelligence that it was

a Pakistani Le operation so really a

state-backed operation but using these

proxy forces you know and this was a you

know that traveled from Pakistan into

India to conduct the attack there was a

lot of political things that happened to

include you know demanding

responsibility but there was such

plausible deniability it was literally

frustrating with the you the terrorist

group who did it but you're right no

direct action I there are lots of you

know history there between the Indian

and Pakistan and the concern of just

like we've seen other places the concern

of escalation in that direct attack but

there's a this is the kind of the Iran

situation in the Middle East too there

is always this plausible deniability

even if in these cases where it can be

proven that the terrorists were trained

financed and launched by a state actor

M okay so on to October 7th and

Gaza I I was thinking we would start our

conversation with the war in Gaza just

so post Israel's response to October 7th

but is there anything you want to say

about October 7th itself before Israel

did anything in response sure I think

it's I I I spent a lot of time walking

the ground of October 7th from My Lens

right of was somebody who studied Urban

combat from Mumbai to all wars I think

that the world kind of got to miss

really still has it wrong on what

happened on October 7th so I I've done a

lot of work on walking the ground and

going to all the different sites and

understanding the scale the intention

the magnitude the tactics and everything

from October 7th and I think the world

you know wants to put it in the

terrorist bucket right to put it in the

bucket with 911 M 2611 or the Mumbai

attacks and other terrorist attacks and

while yes it there are some similarities

but it's it's more like a full scale

Invasion I mean there were over 4,000

you know both Hamas and Palestinian

civilians that cross the border between

Israel and Gaza 22 breach sites along

the border wall 4,000 rockets launched

in the first few hours with the

intention of moving much farther north

than they did I mean it was a and I've

struggled with what was October 7th and

and as from a military lens it it is as

clear as an invasion as you can get MH

interesting it's somewhat confounded

just optically and and conceptually by

the fact that as you just pointed out

that there were Hamas you know Fighters

I mean not not properly thought of as

soldiers in in the state actor sense

perhaps but they were um you know

obvious insurgents but then as you

pointed out there were almost as many or

even

as many or more Palestinian civilians

who came across the border and

participated in the violence to one or

another degree how how do you think

about that I mean it we all want

Frameworks in which to think about it I

think about it as in a warlands it's

hard in this situation like what was

Gaza it was it a state and was this a

the launch of a a state attack right it

it it's not so it falls into these two

buckets of whether International armed

conflict or non- internationally armed

conflict but I view it like I said as an

invasion with different forces yeah the

first wave of forces were these Hamas

Nuka some even wearing uniform forces

with clear instructions I mean they had

guide books on how to create as much

suffering they had guide books on how to

wear their GoPro cameras there's just so

much uniqueness but I view if you cross

the border I VI you as a combatant

really so in in war there's two

categories non-combatant and a combatant

and yes you can get into like illegal

combatant and all of these things but if

if somebody crossed the border from Gaza

into Israel with the purpose of

partaking in the hostilities they

immediately make themselves a combatant

yeah so let's move forward into and I

think as we talk here I'd like both of

us to be alert to any topics about which

we think many people are confused so if

if I just raise something which you

about which you think there there's a

lot of misunderstanding out there in the

public please flag it and let's Linger

on it so that we don't miss any

opportunities here to rectify some of

the confusion so now that the war has

started we're talking now where there

there's been a A Lull in the fighting

and and really the question the open

question still perhaps it'll still be

open when we air this is whether or not

is the the IDF is going to go into Rafa

I'm sure there's there's some conflict

happening even as we speak but it there

there's definitely been a lull on the

fighting what do we know about the war

in Gaza and how do we know it at this

point I mean just how much how is

information getting out well how do you

view the quality of the information on

some level this is the most witnessed

conflict in human history judging from

social media but in other ways that you

we know that there's an astounding

amount of misinformation and and

confusion about it what what is going on

in Gaza and how do we know what is going

on sure I think I think that's a great

question and it's hard to say you know

from from the from October 7th till

today have been how have we known what

is going on and how has that shaped our

you know basically our information about

the war and I agree with you is this we

used to have these terms like Tick Tock

Wars um they're calling this the first

open source war after Ukraine but the

ution of being able basically being

bombarded by information not through

kind of the traditional means but

through social media and other aspects

where we can see into the battle

continuously but we're also looking

through a so dist strw and a lot of

people are interpreting what they're

seeing where I agree with you we can

really start from October 7th we talked

about that on how I think people have

gotten that wrong on it was a terrorist

attack it was you oriented towards the

military all the these different

immediate disinformation campaigns that

seem to be gaining traction to sticking

even in Israel's response but once you

know on October 8th Israel declared war

against Hamas such a really great

framework a state because they went on

the news and made a formal declaration

of war against tamas in Gaza because of

what happened on October 7th that's

pretty straightforward they set forth

their goals which again as time has gone

in different media messages or

information operations that we call them

you know social media trends or whatever

there's been so much of the truth that

has been translated you asked me how do

we know what we know so for like October

7th we know because Hamas uploaded all

their videos a lot of time in real time

so we we can pretty much you people were

starting to make their own opinions on

October 7th based on the overwhelming

information being uploaded but it's

really interesting how

despite even hamas's videosos everybody

formed their own opinion on you know it

was resistance it was oriented towards

this the military it there wasn't this

you know no rape happened all these

things despite the overwhelming evidence

we all had access to is all that video

still up there or has it been in some

ways taken down no you can go to like

you can just go to October there's

actually video I I I forget the name of

them like October 7.com and um where

people have collected unfortunately all

the homos they can find and put it on as

a record of because you know you as the

thread of X or telegram whatever it can

get lost in the threads but no people

have it's all still available I saw the

video that the Israeli government put

together um I saw it you know back in

November and it was really shocking and

I wrote about how much it it jarred me

despite how much I've seen of War how

much you my own experiences yeah I

haven't seen that video and I perhaps I

should I think I've been sparing myself

the experience but um what did surprise

you about it one I one of the biggest

surprises was just the unique because of

the fact that Hamas recorded so much of

the atrocities they were doing but also

the fact that you know there were so

many sensors we call them you know

traffic cameras dashboard cameras victim

cell

phones the what Israel did which nobody

has access to unless seen this video was

to take all those different points of

view and then put them in time and

location so like if you're at the Nova

Music Festival the video shows you the

Hamas GoPro approaching the festival it

shows you the dash camera of somebody

there trying to get away and the and of

the frightened teenager who's recording

it it brings it all together which I

think really creates this very mixed

reality experience of which is unique to

war reporting like I've watched you know

my fill of evil things happening around

the world but how this was put together

I think was really unique so it really

Jarred me I mean other things that I saw

in the video that were very unique to me

was like the video of Hamas rolling

through the the Border really jubilant

about what they were about to do yeah

and I've LED I've led a lot of soldiers

into combat and that's not normal even

for you know for soldiers for anybody to

be really excited euphor about what they

were about to do and then lastly I found

some of the videos of like the children

crying out in pain there's one scene

where there's two young boys um the

Hamas members had just killed the father

they had brought them back into the

house and you can hear the boys moaning

which is something I as a soldier have

heard you know enemy combatants do on

the battlefield like it's like the de

the death moan I call it and to hear

that coming from a boy was really

traumatic but I've also seen you know

innocent civilians being caught in

between you know in in war and how the

soldiers will overwhelmingly stop to

give Aid and to have a little boy crying

out his eyes missing his dad dead and

for the Hamas member to be standing

there like shut up be quiet and then

goes to the fridge and that's the scene

that everybody talks about where he

grabs the the coke out of the fridge and

starts drinking it that was really you

know very

unique yeah I was just um we're talking

now and uh on the day that um Cheryl

Sandberg released her documentary on um

the violence against women on October

7th that's available on YouTube uh and I

I just started watching it I only got

maybe 15 minutes in before we had to

jump on the microphones here but it

shows some of the footage which I had

seen before of which many people have

seen and I really think everyone should

see of of some of the hostages being

dragged across the border into Gaza and

you know some of the young women who

almost certainly have been raped I mean

there's there's one who's got obviously

blood around her pelvic area on her

pants and actually looks like her her

Achilles tendons might have been cut

which is a diabolical detail if true but

the the thing that's so striking about

so much of this footage of the hostages

being dragged across the borders that so

many of the people in the scene are

absolutely ecstatic and they're you know

you know basically all you hear are

shouts of allu Akbar and it's coming

from you mean I guess many of these

people certainly some of the people are

official members of Hamas but judging

from the the sheer numbers in many of

these shots it really seems like a lot

of these people are just Palestinian

civilians who are getting caught up in

the in the mob violence but it does

strike me as unusual I mean it's very

hard there I can imagine a lot of things

you know I can imagine based on some

experience of being a victim and you

know wanting Vengeance and you know to I

can imagine being on the other side of

uh violence even even wrongful violence

but what I find it very difficult to

imagine is a scenario where an obvious

non-combatant you know in this case a

girl or a mother clutching two children

to her breast being taken hostage and

finding the taking of these hostages a

cause for celebration right like this is

the wind I've been hoping for this is

the thing that's going to get me

shrieking to heaven in Jubilation that

we finally grabbed one of these you you

know mistreated girls who's you know

already bloodied may be grievously

injured in some Cas in some cases dead

where you have people you know rushing

forward to spit upon the corpses of

again in many cases obvious

non-combatants I mean you can you can

understand it you know if this you know

really fully lean into the principle of

Charity here perhaps you can understand

it if these are soldiers being taken

hostage but when you have a woman

clutching her kids being dragged onto a

motorcycle and you have people shrieking

in Jubilation over this I have a um I

mean I know why I think people are

capable of this but it's um you know I

would say you have to believe some very

specific things about the moral order in

the universe and your place in it to

find these sorts of moments the

Fulfillment of your aspirations right

and a and a cause for happiness not not

Grim murderous determination or sadism

or but just joy and so there something I

think people find it very hard to

interpret these scenes and and I think

they've just averted their their eyes

from them but they do

suggest that any bright line we want to

draw between you know evil mustache

twirling terrorists you know I.E the

core members of Hamas and other

Palestinians is in fact difficult to

draw I'm just wondering how you view

those scenes because they do strike me

as surprising in ways that Echo the the

surprise you just expressed over the

Jubilation of the of the combatants

coming across the border as as kind of a

a non-standard mood for soldiers yeah it

it's an interesting so it's not the

first time I've seen it to be truthful

now those who crossed the border and

engaged in the activities in any way to

include the the looters who even came

forward and walked over the dead

children's bodies and took their

clothing back into Gaza like I'm a very

law of war rule of law realist basically

so have I seen similar of course it's

it's disgusting to see it reminded me of

you know scenes of Mogadishu

1993 the entire population celebrating

the death of American soldiers fuia 2004

the entire seems like the entire city

coming out to dismember Americans burn

them drag them hang them from their

bridge and celebrate it's not yes I 100%

agree with you it's a massive problem

with you know Islamic radicalization of

populations and to where you can bring

yourself to be celebrating the rape of

women and taking the babies as hostages

just so many fundamental issues with

that but I also draw a c line because I

understand the history of war and this

is again where I think people have

gotten it wrong they think that to think

that those videos didn't lead to like

Israel's quest for vengeance

and and and the way they act that is all

stemming off of what happened October

7th I strongly believe from being on the

ground you asked me how do I get my

information or other people from being

on the ground with the idea that is also

not how soldiers approach even after you

the Battle of fuia or other instance

which is very similar in the difficulty

of distinguishing between okay who's a

combatant or non-combatant innocent

civilian it doesn't lead to Nations or

like the IDF in this case where no

matter what they do people think they're

intentionally trying to Target people

because of those videos which is not the

reality on the ground yeah I mean can

you imagine the reverse case of the IDF

dragging obvious non-combatant women and

children out of Gaza across the border

into Israel and you know random Israelis

celebrating their rape and abuse it's

just there's some glaring asymmetries

here which people are losing sight of

there's just no I'm sure we'll get into

the details of what the IDF has done and

what what they may have done wrong and I

really have no doubt that there are

examples of war crimes to be found in

the war in Gaza on the IDF side because

it would be it seems like it would be

impossible for some Soldier or soldiers

not to have gone Haywire in certain

circumstances right this is just the the

nature of War as I understand it but

what I don't think you would find is an

appetite among the Israelis to have

raped non-combatants paraded before

jeering crowds in Tel Aviv there is just

a cultural asymmetry here that is quite

glaring and almost never remarked upon

100% And and I agree with you this is

really

that you know the misinformation that is

so shocking that you have so much

misunderstanding of who the Israelis are

as in the IDF the people of Israel how

there is an aspect of of course the law

of War I'm sure we'll talk about

following the law of war and all of its

intricacies in the execution of a war

but also the the moral ethical code of

your Society I mean militaries are a

reflection of their societies so like

you're right the asymmetry here is you

think that the is is society would be

okay with any of that and clearly

they're not and they want to hold

soldiers if they do go wrong in war

accountable there's so much of that that

is that's not who we are that people

don't understand that militaries take

into war the reflection of their

society's values so there's so much Mis

misinformation out there that it becomes

confusing to people who have never been

there they couldn't tell you what the

the difference between Gaza and the West

Bank is they they couldn't tell you what

the size of Israel is or what there's so

much they don't know but they form these

immediate you know hardened and emphatic

opinions about that's just the way

Israel does like what are you talking

about so back to the information

question let's just focus on the the raw

numbers here how many people have been

killed in Gaza and what is the

proportion of combatants to

non-combatants and I because one thing

we're dealing with here is that for the

longest time time people have simply

been restating numbers that have come

straight out of the so-called Ministry

of Health which is really Hamas in Gaza

you know I don't think anyone can doubt

that many thousands of people have died

and and that many thousands of

non-combatants have died but what what

do we know about the numbers and the

proportion or do we simply actually not

know with any confidence at this point

yeah that's a great question it's

interesting how many times I've gotten

the question unique to this war

only what is the combatant to civilian

kill ratio it's just I of course having

studied so many Urban battles can tell

you what it was in the past um I can

tell you for so the question was how

many have died there the answer is

nobody knows but for some reason unique

we you know war is a contest of will we

have to fight what the narrative is so

because unique to this war alone and and

I I don't say this based on opinion just

but empirical evidence this is the first

war in history where anybody has had a

running count of the civilian casualties

down to the single digit in real time I

mean if you just imagine a fake running

count correct I mean we're taking the

actual opinion of a third party in who

is affiliated with the Enemy Hamas so

the Gaza Health Ministry is a Hamas

because Hamas wasn't just the military

force it was the government and you

couldn't be part of the institution if

you're not it's complex but to get a

number from within the environment from

the enemy and say that's the number that

the entire world runs with with no

caveats one it's physically impossible

to know how many civilians have died in

Gaza it is has never been done in the

history of war the greatest battle since

World War II was the Battle of mul in

2016 and

17 and a year after the battle the Iraqi

government still did not have a number

in which how many civilians had died now

it went all from 9,000 to 40,000 the the

mayor of the city said it was over

40,000 because of how many you people

are in the rubble how many people are

unaccounted for who left and there's no

report on where they went you can

imagine in a in a very dense Urban

environment like how could you possibly

have a number but if I ran with the

numbers that we all use so let's say the

Gaza Health ministry as we're talking

says 33,000 civilians have died actually

it's not let me caveat myself is that

the Gaza Health Ministry says that

33,000 Palestinians have died in Gaza

since October 7th that number if we are

truthful and and we used hamas's numbers

or or the Gaza health ministries numbers

it accounts for every death that has

happened in Gaza no matter the cause it

is it includes all Hamas members anybody

who died of natural causes anybody who

died actually from hamas's hands because

of the 12,000 rockets at Hamas is

launched out of Gaza towards Israel

since October 7th 20% of those have

landed inside of Gaza and killed many

Palestinian people of Gaza but if we ran

with the 33,000 which includes everybody

El died and we took Israel's number

because if we're going to believe Hamas

Why Don't We Believe Israel who says

given our battle damage assessments we

believe we've killed 12,000 Hamas

combatants so you subtract 12,000 for

33,000 you get about a one enemy to two

if not one to one of enemy to civilian

ratio which would be historically low to

any Urban battle and this is a war not a

battle so it's actually really

interesting how somebody will try to

take a battle from the past especially

the last 30 years and compare it to the

war in Gaza which includes you know like

10 massive Urban battles together that

they they aggregate the numbers to kind

of tell the message they want it would

still be a historically low given the

all the context of urban combat where

you have a civilian population where no

matter what you do many of them still

stay you're trying to identify separate

enemy from civilian or combatant to

non-combatant like the Battle of mul

where you know it took nine months for a

100,000 Iraqi Security Forces to get

four to 5,000 Isis members out of the

city and they killed 10,000 civilians in

in the process of that 9-month battle to

liberate the city so that's a one two

ratio it was so but this is I mean the

fact that every person in that I ever

interview asked me this question is

really shocking because it's it's never

been the question that's not how the law

of War works but we have this number in

our head that like clearly this means

everything that's going on is illegal

and Israel is purposely killing

civilians but look how the high the

number is irrelevant of the context of

the war like we're not even talking

about the numbers the challenge that the

IDF faced in Gaza nobody wants to talk

about that like the 40,000 Hamas members

tens of thousands of other terrorist

members buried in 400 miles of tunnels

intermixed between a population of 2

million who Egypt won't let into Egypt

there's so many complexities to this

battle that no military has faced in the

history of War but nobody cares they

just want to know what's the civilian

death toll and there is no

number yeah yeah well obviously I asked

the question very much in the spirit of

echoing the the observation you just

made which is that

it's the very question shows how upside

down everyone's analysis of this

conflict is and and and became really

immediately even before Israel responded

there was already a massive Distortion

of moral and political priorities in how

people were thinking about the ensuing

violence and I want so I I just want to

continue to to flag what is unique about

this and and just the ways in which

people focus on I mean it's almost like

we have at this moment something like a

billion people maybe two billion people

maybe three billion people for the first

time discovering that war itself is

intolerable and the onus is on Israel

really and the onus is on the Jews if

you want to get down to it but uh there

so there's kind of anti-Semitism here

which we can table it's really not my

focus but Ian when you ask about what

was what is the origin of all of the

double standards here and the weird

inversions of priorities and the you

know for the first time in human history

the seizing upon details that no one

ever thought about in any other conflict

you know the standards to which the IDF

is being held which no other Army has

ever been held you know especially in

the face of the challenges they're

facing which we're going to talk about

which you just began to reference I.E

400 mil of tunnels the strangeness of of

all of this is something that I want to

keep in view but I do also want to just

simply deliver the information as so in

so far as we have it and to concede

whatever can be conceded to the people

who are horrified by the images they're

seeing coming out of Gaza because it's

it's understandable that people are

horrified and especially if they're for

the first time looking at the evidence

of war the evidence of of Urban War as

I've said before there really there

there really is no argument for the

justness of any war in and it's even

necessity that makes sense of the image

of a child being pulled out of rubble

right it's unacceptable whatever the

rationale for it and some billions of

people are having that experience on a

hourly basis because of social media and

it's all Being Framed in the the most

invidious way possible against Israel

and against you know support for Israel

defending itself in this case let's I

guess a high level question here it is

because of this imagery and because of

the way the discussion is Being Framed

again largely on social media there's

this

widespread allegation against Israel and

the IDF that they're guilty not only of

war crimes but the very war is itself a

crime and they guilty of genocide

they're guilty of the collective

punishment of the Palestinians the

deliberate murder of non-combatants and

and even the deliberate murder of

journalists and Aid workers right so

they like when you have you know the the

seven employees of Jose

andreas' humanitarian organization

killed it is analyzed so as to suggest

that Israel has intentionally killed

those Aid workers as that as though you

know the killing of those Aid workers

worked to the advantage of Israel in

some way I mean it's just like you know

it's a it would be a colossal Act of

self harm for them to have killed those

Aid workers on purpose given the

consequences for World opinion but

people seem to effortlessly interpret

every casualty as something that the IDF

has

intended what if anything in this

downpour of disparagement of the IDF and

Israel

is true I mean what what is the worst

thing that can be honestly said about

how Israel has been wag in is war in

Gaza so the only thing that I can say

would be the most honest fact-based

criticism of Israel is that it has done

a horrible job on fighting the

counternarrative of what they're

actually doing one of the main reasons

that is is because they did not embed

foreign media and journalists um this is

the example I usually give when I'm

teaching a class the first battle of

fuia 2004 you know four American

citizens were killed the US president

orders the military in to get those

account you know who did it accountable

the world says that there is too much

use of force too many civilians are

being hurt they're being they're

committing war crimes so six days into

the battle the US military is defeated

and told to stop because of the

perception the use of force very minor

example of the totality that is the war

against Hamas and Gaza but it's a great

example where they they were defeated

and there were zero media EDS in the

first battle of fuia 6 months later when

they redid the same operation 60 media

EDS so that's the honest criticism but I

could help you kind of go through every

narrative every accusation to include

the targeting of journalist Aid workers

or civilians in general where the US

government not even me John Spencer

who's been there but doesn't have access

to all the classified information said

there's based on their investigation

there is zero evidence of a single event

in which Israel intentionally caused

harm to civilians journalists or even

the world Central Kitchen event where

people don't want to accept the fact

that accidents do happen especially in

the fog and friction of urban combat

which people just don't have a clue of

like of what what it actually takes and

they get to this point where they

interpret situations right you and I

think that was really important you said

that because even uh the way that war

crimes work from the ridiculous use of

the word genocide a big factor is to

intention based on the information you

have at the moment you take your action

not the results so everybody sees you

know footage of of Gaza especially

Northern Gaza or Seas like you said the

unfortunate every one of them is

travesty the civilian death and they

they interpret well of course that means

Israel did all that on purpose and that

there was no alternative which I think

could be a part of the conversation is

that people who have no information on

how War works like you said people woke

up to not the Syrian War not to the last

30 years of Wars not to real massacres

of you Russia taking 20,000 babies out

of Ukraine they woke up to and want to

start interp ing based on their

knowledge the wars that they see based

on short clips and videos or they think

that there's an alternative which I

actually think is I've been arguing with

literally like national leaders who have

propositioned that there was another way

um and that's not the history of warfare

one example I'll give is there was a you

know very another news story of Israel

has used more 2,000 pound bombs than any

other military in the last 30 years

which is a true statement but it is

given as a negative to paint the picture

that Israel had a choice it could have

not used those bombs it could have just

not did bombing at all and the actual

evidence shows that that has been a a

feeling between in mini Wars that if you

just bomb less there'll be less damage

less civilian casualties it's actually

the inverse like in the 1945 Battle of

Manila where there were 4,000 Americans

and UK and turnes prisoners of War being

held by the Japanese in the city of

Manila and the general General MacArthur

said you no air power I don't want you

destroying Manila I don't want

inappropriate civilian casualties and

still the the military moved forward and

there were 100,000 civilian deaths

because of the complexity of urban

combat you think that if there would

have been just less bombing or the fact

that the actual n clure of a 2,000lb

bomb we haven't talked about it yet but

one of the things the difficulty for the

IDF is that the enemy there's no enemy

on the surface they're underground and

they're deep underground so yes Israel

has used more 2,000lb bonds because

they're the only military in the history

of War who's faced an enemy so deep

underground under civilian structures in

which a tool like that is the weapon

that can get to that military

Target okay so talk to me about I guess

you can talk about Urban Warfare

generically and and Guerilla Warfare

generically but what is unusual about

this war what is Israel facing that we

didn't face in Iraq or Afghanistan or

didn't face to the same degree and what

is novel about what they have done in

the direction of being more scrupulous

more more averse to producing collateral

damage than we or any other Army has

been in the past sure if you're going to

say just that that all that Israel has

really done wrong is to fail to

anticipate how colossally badly the the

pr war was going to go for them and they

failed to embed journalists who could

give credible real-time information

about all the efforts they're making to

not kill the wrong people and I agree

it's been you I you know I don't know if

it would have mattered had they done

that I I certainly hope it would have

mattered but I agree that they have not

done a good job at all of changing the

narrative but if that's their only crime

what have they done that has been

scrupulous and compassionate and Beyond

the usual course of action for an army

launched from a democratic State uh into

combat sure so two easy actually things

to pick apart one is what did they face

that no military has faced and what did

they do that no military has done so on

what they have faced one is just the

proximity to the enemy right that this

is is not hundreds of miles away so if

you if you want to use a US military

example it just fails step one just a

proximity to the actual National

Security the existential threat so

that's October 7th right but the war is

being waged in isight of the homes of

those you know the size of the combatant

so 4,000 combatants launching Rockets

over the head of the military so no

military in modern history has faced in

combat B who is launching 12,000 Rockets

over their heads headed for their homes

behind them the tunnels of course so you

know this this what Hamas had built over

15 years hasn't been seen in war period

yes there's been tunnels in war before

but the fact that there were 400 miles

of tunnels ranging from 15 ft to 250 ft

underground where no military munition

could reach but solely under civilian

sites so civilian homes

hospitals schools un facilities on

purpose so they could deploy this what

they call this human shield strategy

because you know non-state actors

terrorists whoever have learned from the

history of really you know modern Wars

in which you have a military who follows

the law of war against a combatant who

doesn't that they use the laws which in

urban combat you immediately enter and

you already have restrictions on the use

of force right you can't that's the

under Ling thing is do not Target

civilians and only target military sites

and that's really hard to do in urban

areas but there's lots of rules that we

can talk about on that so hamash

deployed this human shield strategy but

also a human sacrifice strategy where

and I don't know why the world just

won't take for on its head what Hamas

says like literally they tell you these

things and the world's like yeah but

they're the fact that they say they want

as many of their civilians to die as

possible

M and one evidence of that is the fact

that there are 400 mil of tunnels in

Gaza and not one civilian is allowed in

them the entire population 2.2 million

could fit in hamas's tunnels with ease

where you take in another example in

another War like Ukraine's war where the

civilians did seek refuge in the subway

tunnels and underground and the hostages

so the fact that you know that Hamas

immediately took over 240 hostages which

really gets to the time variable right

so in understanding the challenge that

the idea face you have to factor in you

know the Rockets the tunnels the

hostages which really get to your

alternatives on well just wait just

pursue some other strategy and and just

leave your hostages in captivity yeah so

all those variables no military has

faced that in modern times none and I

could you know I can go back to World

War II and give you some variables like

the Battle of Manila 1945 the 1950

Battle of Soul which will get you close

but not all those variables and

especially not the variables in which

Israel relies on the support of the

United States all war is a contest of

will so Israel knowing that of course

everybody agreed it had the right to of

self-defense and to launch the war but

to to know you have to maintain the will

of the International Community in how

you respond that's a little different

than let's say post 911 when of course

the United States saw a coalition but it

was going to to and it did take action

now on what did the IDF do which again

is unique to actually a novel in

preventing we call it civilian harm

mitigation so everything you do to not

have civilians hurt and the biggest

thing that really the only thing that

has been very effective in wars in

modern history or even World War II is

if the conditions allow wait and

Evacuate the cities of the civilians so

this is a very like the the biggest

thing you can do so Israel waited after

October 7th one it had to mobilize but

then it it still waited three more weeks

and sent notice especially to Northern

Gaza where the the greatest meat of

these 40,000 Hamas members organized in

30 different battalions the greatest

really population of them were in

Northern Gaza so it evacuated the entire

Northern Gaza and they got criticized

for doing that and and telling this the

civilians to please leave these combat

areas and they evacuated 850,000 of the

million population in Northern Gaza and

they were criticized for that but it was

it was the standard and how you do that

through the dropping of Flyers was

pretty straightforward of course Israel

because they had the capability and

they've developed what nobody else in

war does started also using phone calls

text messages pre-recorded voice

messages to help with those evacuations

then they deployed drones with with

speakers and then they deployed speakers

um dropped out of par you know from the

sky on parachutes to help evacuate with

a very high level Fidelity so that way

when you enter the environment you

there's less civilians caught in the

middle of it so they waited and I heard

reports that Hamas tried to prevent

people from evacuating to make their

human shield and Human Sacrifice

strategy more effective are those

reports credible 100% I mean and again

we have to believe those reports as much

as we the other reports of of course the

IDF told the civilians what road to use

and where to go and Hamas targeted them

or sent them messages took their cars

preventing the civilians from leaving

and and most of that comes from the

civilians in the environment and where

that information comes and as when you

say Hamas targeted those points of

egress you mean like Hamas snipers shot

people on those roads correct and and

bomb mortared those roads and this is

the thing where people will say the

other report is that Israel targeted the

exact areas in which they told the

civilians to go which is you know

usually misinformation has a kernel of

Truth where like Hamas would set up a

rocket firing position next to a

humanitarian zone right and then launch

rockets so Israel would respond to that

and then the world would only pick up on

Israel as targeting the humanitarian

areas they told civilians to go to get

out of the combat area yeah really the

the only you know that's a safer area

but Hamas again using the human shield

has wanted that narrative and this is

also the the difference too to Hamas as

a combatant as opposed to most other

Urban combatants even Isis right so Isis

um in the Battle of mul used human

Shields but it its purpose wasn't to get

as many civilians killed as possible nor

was there a way to really hold the

people into the area so this again gets

to the the uniqueness to this war is the

fact that the civilians can't get out

into Egypt they were identified this

this place in southern Gaza that was

identified which is now the AL masasi

humanitarian Zone it was picked because

it was one of the few areas that the IDF

believed there were less Hamas tunnels

or Hamas military in in in in general

and initially the the civilians wouldn't

go there but yes the humas and really we

can talk about what Hamas did during the

temporary ceasefire that happened for

the hostage exchange which nobody

comments on is that during that

ceasefire Hamas sent hundreds of

thousands of civilians into areas and

repopulated them with over 300% of the

civilians that were there before the war

so like in K Yunis Hamas increased a

population of communist by 300% before

the IDF could start their operation in

that area what what do you make of the

difference you know albe it a a subtle

one in how Isis the Islamic State used

human Shields you versus how Hamas is is

doing it you say that the Islamic State

wasn't seeking though they used human

Shields they weren't seeking to maximize

the loss of civilian life I mean the the

only way I can interpret that is to

imagine that Hamas recognizes that in

this conflict with Israel the role that

Global opinion plays is you know is a

lever that they really have in hand and

can easily pull and the and the way to

pull it is to maximize the loss of

civilian life because you they know

Israel will be blamed for every single

body and that the blaming of Israel will

matter in a way that I can imagine the

Islamic State did not imagine they had

that same kind of Leverage with in

fighting the US and and you know much

less you know local Iraqi and you know

forces in you know being led by the US

yeah it's a great question is you really

have to look at in war the strategy of

both sides so this has been trying to

have people understand that the Hamas

military strategy in the war is not to

defeat the idea as in in military force

it is also not to hold terrain just in

those two objectives it's different than

Isis who was trying to hold the terrain

that it had captured to include mul

which is the capital of their

self-proclaimed caliphate they were

really trying to hold the terrain the

Hamas strategy in accordance with what

they have done has always been about

just biing time and why they built this

vast tunnel network was to be in the

tunnels when IDF came I don't think they

assumed that Israel would maintain the

will to continue even this far but it

was always about Bing time for the world

to stop the IDF like which has happened

in Israel's previous Wars Isis didn't

have that strategy as their military

strategy or their Grand strategy where

Hamas again again according to them

their grand strategy is all this is just

in the pursuit of a political objective

to Israel not existing and for there to

be a Palestinian state which in includes

everything that Israel is currently

sitting on right now that gets into this

military aspect where you see a vast

difference between Isis and Hamas both

used Terror tactics one was a full out

government of this region received

billions of dollars to improve the

region funneled most of that money into

building this Terror military that had

the intention of just causing the IDF to

not be successful and that has been

where again they say that the civilians

should die to achieve that goal and

they're fine with the all of them dying

you in the pursuit of this like you said

there's a fundamental misunderstanding

of what Hamas and this radical

interpretation of Islam which leads them

to pursue this strategy in real time

yeah it's um I I don't think I can

really recover from my astonishment that

people can't see this uh more easily

than they than they have I mean when you

look at the protests on college campuses

which now have devolved into in many

cases explicit support for Hamas right

they're not even trying to draw a line

between the Palestinian cause and Hamas

right there's just and needless to say

there's no concern for return of

hostages and all these calls for a

ceasefire but they're just actually you

know they're just nakedly supporting

Hamas and yet what should be obvious to

everyone is that there there's nobody

who cares less about saving the lives of

Palestinian

non-combatants than Hamas right I mean

this is when you're looking to see who

is the the most callous about the lives

of Palestinian children it is uh senoir

and his colleagues down there

underground and I just find it so

remarkable that people have you know

either lost sight of that or have never

seen it and that or seeing it is somehow

doesn't matter in how they're

interpreting the situation yeah I mean

this is the uniqueness I agree with you

it's it's it's shocking and concerning

where our world's best academic

institutions are creating the dumbest

students who can't critically think or

get access to their own information this

has been the you basically the survey

based analysis of the protest like do

you know which river in the sea means do

you know who Hamas is what do you know

what happened on October 7th it's it's

just shocking but I will give you have

to analyze it almost empirically on how

Hamas has been able to tap into all

these human storytelling techniques of

the you know the the weak versus the

powerful the oppressed versus the

oppressor and the ideal that there is

just an alternative if you just stop you

know just see fire now everything will

be better if we just cease fire and this

has been my position from the beginning

as a student of war is that if Hamas was

allowed to survive the war period as in

Hamas not the ideal which again I think

the world to include military analysts

have just every day since October 7th

tried to compare this to a

counterinsurgency counterterrorism

campaign which we just are comfortable

with over the last 30 years is what we

know rather than a conventional War

mindset of this is a political body with

a military holding terrain with

political objectives but the fact that

the world thinks that you know if you

just stop fighting just stop the war

right like you said they woke up to what

war looks like and that it's intolerable

war is hell it is death and destruction

but one they want to fail to recognize

what the idea have done to limit and

restrict themselves and and to prevent

civilian harming but they also think

that the world will be a better place if

the war just stops that if Hamas who

they are today the Hamas that was

October 7th in my interpretation if they

survive the war they have achieved a

massive victory in the history of War

they struck Israel and as they say as

Iran says Israel and then through Israel

the United States if they survive that

they become these giant Legends I mean

they'll make statues out of them they'll

have there'll be celebration days in

Iran for Hamas leadership who pulled off

October 7th and survived it and that we

will see a much more violent Middle East

and world if they survive yeah I I fully

agree with that premonition I just think

it's the only answer to the triumphalism

of jihadism is to defeat it right

there's no that it has to be a stark

defeat and so I guess my next question

for you is How likely is that I mean I

guess before you answer that you can

perhaps tell us what the IDF has

actually accomplished thus far in Gaza

and and now as I said we're we're

waiting to see if they're going to go

into Rafa and I think we both think they

should but what has the IDF done what is

left to do and How likely is it that

they can destroy Hamas and what and what

does that what is destroying Hamas

actually mean does it mean killing every

last member of Hamas does it mean just

killing the the leadership or you know

bringing them otherwise bringing them to

justice and then we should talk about

what conceivable aftermath there might

be if they do what can be done here so

what have they done what can be done and

uh what does it look like afterwards

sure so what they have done and

especially keeping in mind what the

objectives were you know return to

hostages destroy Hamas as a military

organization with the ability to harm

Israel and secure Israel's borders so if

if we compare to has Israel been

successful thus far right I can't tell

you who's going to achieve ultimate

victory in the war yet thus far Israel

has historically cleared dense Urban

train at a pace and with a despite the

numbers low collateral damage low

civilian casualty count they of the 30

battalions 20 4 of those being light

infantry battalions of Hamas they have

destroyed 20 of the 24 active battalions

they have cleared 75% of Gaza as in

broken apart those functioning military

organizations um they have identified

the weapons capability right because the

Rockets are a big part of hamas's

military capability that they had immen

to include the manufacturing

capabilities so these deep buried

weapons manufacturing as in rocket

production plants underground that

Israel has found it has destroyed much

of hamas's Terror tunnel networks it has

returned half the hostages home through

military pressure which led to

negotiations and it has now created a

situation in which there's only four

battalions the Hamas leadership and the

remaining at the time we're talking you

know 133 Israeli hostages left to

fulfill the objectives of Israel so

that's what they've done so far now the

question of destroy Hamas that gets

everybody going right let me just add

one footnote to what you just said so so

obviously we we started this

conversation talking about how

unreliable all the numbers are and now

you just kind of went through

confidently detailing the numbers in

some basic sense giving a proportion of

Hamas fighters versus uh non-combatants

but again what you're doing here is

basically taking hamas's numbers of dead

at face value which we can't really do

but you know one can imagine it's a

something like a worst case scenario

number like at the moment 33,000 dead

and we're taking idf's claim to have

killed something like 13,000 combatants

and just using those numbers as as the

framework for the proportion right right

and this is really gets a bigger

question on that we're in a world in

which nobody trusts anybody right so

they're not going to trust anything

Israel says the United States says

United Kingdom says says but they'll

trust some I says which is unique but

let's say I trust everybody's numbers

that's where I get to and everybody's

statements to include homes I'm taking

all the information available and and

making these statements based on what we

know like the 33,000 are we confident

that the that Hamas had

40,000 fighters in the first place I

mean are those Hamas numbers are those

IDF numbers or that do both sides agree

on the number of Hamas Fighters yeah

that's a great question no it's it's a

combination of both Hamas leadership

both the political Wing in Qatar and the

military Wing in in Gaza and the IDF and

Us and other intelligence agencies

estimates based on a collection right

what we call all Source analysis a

collection of both what Hamas says what

the IDF says what we can gain and we

have to achieve some type of okay we we

will agree that this is a number right

so when you say they have uh remind me

the proportion of Hamas battalions that

have been destroyed or or fatally

compromised is is what so 20 of the 24

basically infantry kind of terrain

holding battalions before the war there

was an estimate of 30 battalions which

includes like the people who shoot the

Rockets the headquarters everything so

of the Hamas military 20 battalions of

their 24 battalions that they had on

October 7th have been destroyed and by

destroyed it means broken apart so

they're no longer functioning as a

military unit able to do their their

assigned Mission whether it's defend or

attack and and how do we know is it in

terms of the damage to the tunnels I

mean what what are you picturing or what

do you what are you aware of being true

there where I mean it's 400 miles of

tunnels is just it's just staggering and

I when I say that number or hear it I'm

I can't shake the feeling of of

incredulity right I it just seems

impossible but accepting that something

like that is true Israel could not have

destroyed no matter how many 2,000lb

bombs they dropped much of that Network

maybe they took out crucial nodes in the

network what what do you imagine has

happened and what is the result I mean

Are We Now talking about Hamas Fighters

and Israeli hostages trapped inside

tunnels and you know dying of starvation

or what I mean what is What is the

reality of of that destruction yeah it's

really hard to get a true estimate like

nobody's given the number of sheer

number you know miles of tunnels that

have been discovered and destroyed but

given the way Urban Terrain is cleared

the reporting of over a thousand shafts

identified the number of tunnels in

which the IDF have controlled destroyed

as in using explosives to destroy I mean

I was in one in December along the

border of Israel and Gaza that was 2 and

1 half miles long it was an invasion

tunnel if you were just to take up the

number of ones that they have publicly

announced and shown the world it's still

many many miles but it is a great

question and I've gotten this question

as somebody who studies underground

Warfare too it's like when is will they

ever be able to destroy all the tunnels

absolutely not and if you get to the

rization of like how is it possible to

have hundreds of miles of tunnels

underneath a space that is only you know

Gaza Strip is 25 mil long at the widest

part 7 mil wide and that is the really

the uniqueness to what Hamas has been

digging over 15 years so many different

levels of tunnels and the idef have

shown the world much of that and shown

how they both identified like here's a

two mile here's a three mile tunnel here

here we are destroying it um it's really

hard to get that estimate but in the

clearing of this is why you couldn't

have done it with just bombing right you

could not have bombed your way to this

nor could you it's going to be hard do

it quickly identify every tunnel and you

have to prioritize what is a you know

certain level of a tunnel and you won't

ever be able to destroy them all because

you you're not going to find them all

but you you get to a certain level of

fidelity and what they have discovered

is more than anybody thought that was

ever there are IDF soldiers going down

into the time tunnels and engaging Hamas

fighters in shooting battles underground

or are they simply finding shafts and

dropping explosives into them and blow

and and considering that part of the

tunnel destroyed when it when it all

collapses I mean what are they sending

robots down there or are they doing all

of those things what what is underground

Warfare like in this case yeah all above

so absolutely like it started like you

we were talking about you know with

identifying

known key bunkers and underground spaces

and and hitting those with with aerial

Munitions moving forward and as the IDF

moved forward like in Northern Gaza if

they found a tunnel shaft they would

stop bring up the special to Israel um

the unique forces trained only for

underground Warfare you know they have

underground dogs or dogs made for tunnel

Warfare and they actually lost over 30

of a very large military working dog

because once you had find a tunnel then

you bring up these special units there

were firefights that happened in tunnels

they're they're very few though because

once the tunnel has been found Hamas has

booby trapped it and moved on or to

another tunnel and and there was a

uniqueness to the approach in Northern

Gaza versus by time I visited in

December or no in February in conun

there was a different approach at one

point the IDF were flooding the tunnels

with both C1 water in fresh water to

flush the en the Hamas out and to clear

the explosives everything has been tried

M but and by time I get to con Yunis

really which is this is a Hamas space

and Hamas is using the tunnels by time I

visit the IDF in you know just a month

and a half ago they were entering the

tunnels before Hamas knew they were in

the tunnels and using basically taking

control of the tunnels and maneuvering

on Hamas at the same time moving above

ground but this is the challenge of

underground Warfare you have to develop

new types of equipment yes they used the

robots the drones that can work under

the ground um yes they destroyed and

really there's only a few ways you can

truly destroy your tunnel like the

flooding that did not work to destroy a

tunnel because the tunnels are made of

concrete and they have uh some of them

have drainage in them you know it's just

it's just not as a solid tube so the

water's not going to stay in there where

explosive force is really the only tried

and true way to destroy a tunnel and you

have to you string a tunnel you'll

string mines together along the full

width of a tunnel which if you imagine

is 2 miles long it takes a lot of

explosives and how are they doing any of

this while keeping the lives of the

hostages in mind what sort of

intelligence do you think they have

about the the location of the hostages

when they're simply blowing up a tunnel

how can they be confident that they're

not killing hostages or burying them

alive yeah mean is this information you

have and and if so what do you know

about the seems to me that the existence

of the hostages as is intended

complicates this picture immensely I

mean it complicates the prosecution of

the war immensely in in all kinds of

ways as you pointed out it sets the

clock ticking in a way that wouldn't

otherwise be true and the idea that you

can just sort of bide your time and

decide you know what you know how you

want to respond over the course of weeks

and months and years that goes out

completely out the window once you've

got hundreds of people now being held

hostage and and mistreated underground

but it also it just it's very hard to

imagine how they could be confidently

destroying tunnels with Hamas in them

knowing that there the hostages are

somewhere underground right no it's a

it's a great topic from really the

highest strategic level down to that

tactical level where you're not going to

especially destroy a tunnel without

first investigating what's in the tunnel

um so most of the destruction outside of

the aerial bombardments which are

intelligence driven like they know what

they're targeting a military target

underground and they have some form of

human intelligence signals intelligence

some other aspect to know whether or not

a hostage is present with the Enemy

combatant that they're striking but once

you get you know close and you're

sending those drones the dogs everything

in the tunnel the dest destroying that I

was talking about is really after you

exploited what's in the tunnel because

of that immense risk that I agree with

you complicates every aspect of the war

is the fact that you know your enem is

underground but there is also the

possibility of your your citizens your

the hostages in there which leads to all

the even the the highest level um which

I argued in a Wall Street Journal

article that the ideal that there's an

alternative to the way that Israel has

done it right which does like you said

would be just to wait a few years use

intelligence to find the hostages and do

raids which is really a fallacy it's

never happened where you have an enemy

environment like that because a raid

relies on lots of intelligence and

immense surprise and some type of like a

permissive because you've surprised

whether it was the Osama Bin Laden raid

and the Pakistan Pakistan didn't know we

were coming for him they didn't they say

they didn't know he was there but to

imagine that you were going to build

enough intelligence to one day just to

do a bunch of raids into Gaza a hostile

environment by definition who knows

you're coming and that you could

eventually achieve your goal of bringing

the hostages home a different way is not

true it's just never it's not

historically backed up but that has led

to this idea of like you said just just

going to take you a lot of time just

just leave them in captivity let Hamas

survive for now and we'll figure out a

different way it's just not backed up by

history yeah especially what to return

to again the probably the least

comfortable topic here the imaginary

line between the public sentiment of the

Palestinians and Hamas I mean just

you're talking about a population that

if it's not entirely supportive of the

project of keeping these hostages enough

people are supportive of it that the

problem is shrouded by a hostile

population that is seems happy to

collaborate with hamas's project of

keeping the hostages for as long as they

want to keep them yeah but I think this

again I definitely 100% that factors

into what could be done about the

situation but in war I'm a very I I'm in

such a proponent for the law of War it's

people just don't understand because

it's meant to put bounds on the

brutality of war and that there is such

thing as a you know a innocent civilian

or non-combatant but people don't

understand what it takes for that person

that to partake in the hostilities and

make themselves a combatant you don't

have to be carrying a weapon you could

be reporting on the enemy that's coming

you could be doing building things

there's so many other aspects of being a

combatant versus a non-combatant where

yes in this world of Hamas where they

wear civilians use human Shields use the

hospitals use everything they can to

make Israel look bad it's it is the

greatest

challenge for any Soldier let alone an

Israeli soldier to operate within these

all these different challenges actually

let's Linger on that point for a second

because this is this might help people

interpret some video which is really any

way you look at it it is shocking video

that I've seen I I think at one point I

saw Joe Rogan on his podcast show the

video and respond to it as really any

untutored person would as just he

believes he's seen clear evidence of IDF

war crimes and and the video is just men

who do not appear to be armed being

bombed right I mean and this for all I

know this could be video from some other

theater of combat I mean it could have

been drone a drone Attack On By Us by on

on men in Iraq I don't you know I don't

know actually the provence of the video

but assuming this was where these were

Palestinian men you know walking among

amid Rubble being killed and they're not

in the process of firing RPGs or or

Rockets uh and they didn't even appear

to be armed how is it possible that a

strike like that could have been

Justified on its face it looks

impossible to justify right really

especially with somebody who's never

seen you know doesn't have any

comprehension of the way the law of War

Works War Works in general and I watched

Joe interpret that video and he be he

and he and just by the words he was

saying I knew that he didn't have a

framework in which to understand what

the world was watching in that 20 second

clip right he said unarmed kids he

actually said kids which is getting to

this definition of what is a you know

what is a a kid or or an adult where

that line is drawn in that combat

situation right which everybody

acknowledge it's a combat zone you know

that 30 second clip doesn't give me any

ability to understand what was going on

other than there is somebody who is

struck with a bomb no idea on what that

person was doing before that video

started did they come out of a tunnel

did they do something before and then

they were did the IDF already know who

those individuals were um again you can

be a member of Hamas like a designated

member and that's that makes you a

combatant it has nothing to do with if

you're carrying a weapon at the moment

or if you're you're shooting at the F at

the moment you're a member of the the

enemy Force there's so much to that

video that is unknown especially like

what were they doing before where did

they come from what were their who were

they what were their intentions that

clearly yes the IDF Meant to hit them so

they have to let's say if you did an

investigation say this is again where

people look at the the end results but

the IDF under question would had to show

like okay how did you know that was a

military Target because clearly they use

Precision guided ammunition to strike

just those four individuals which again

gets to the kind of the false negative

that you would have to proves and of

course they're targeting civilians right

that that's what they do like no you

have to see what the war the law of war

the war crime accusation requires you to

know what they were doing we want to

interpret we see the explosion like

clearly they were targeting those

unarmed civilian kids like there's so

much wrong with we don't know so it's a

crucial detail that you just you don't

know what they were doing moments or

minutes before I mean perhaps the full

video is showing people who just planted

an IED or did something that was

obviously you the behavior of of

combatants and now they're walking away

and then they get targeted or who they

were like literally the fact that Joe

says look clearly they're not carrying

any weapons like okay that's a data

point but that doesn't mean that you're

not an enemy in in in in this combat

area I mean the the power of facial

recognition and all these other aspects

you have to know what the IDF knew at

the time they took that strike and

clearly they they targeted those

individuals that's a fact because they

did it very precisely yeah well I mean

again that for those who haven't seen

the footage this is um the footage was

not at night right so it's not it

doesn't suffer from the same and there

were no these people weren't hidden

inside of car right so it's not

analogous to the world Central Kitchen

false ID problem where they were clearly

striking people they were intending to

strike they just were the wrong people

in the world kitchen yeah yeah yeah well

so you've spoken about what the IDF has

already done and you you seem to believe

that Hamas really does have to be

defeated at the end of this what is

reasonable to hope for there I assume

this means that the the IDF by

definition has to go into Rafa what what

would destroying Hamas look like and

what would the aftermath look like I

mean what what you know if if they have

destroyed Hamas perhaps not down to the

last man but you know rendered the whole

Hamas project obviously a failure and

now Gaza is this hellscape that has no

one to rule it except uh whatever

lunatics can rise up out of the ashes

and be you know nearly as extreme and

irresistible as Hamas it's not going to

be a stable uh Victory and certainly

World opinion will continue to cut

against Israel there what what does

destroying Hamas look like in the best

case and how can they conceivably manage

the aftermath yeah it's a great question

it really gets to this I guess this

misin interpretation of what does them

what does it mean to destroy Hamas where

people say it's not possible right

because they mix you know destroy the

idea of Hamas versus the to destroy what

Hamas was on October 6th and its

military capabilities and all of his

resources that it it created and and

immersed and smuggled in and it was sent

in everything like that one thing is

that what the best case scenario is and

I don't agree although it is the most

likely scenario that it it requires a a

full ground Invasion into Southern Gaza

right Rafa City Rafa refugee camp the

other areas because Hamas could

surrender tomorrow haras could surrender

to include disarm agreement to disarm

themselves and surrender anybody who

partook on October 7th and committed

those heinous crimes they could give all

the hostages back and that would lead to

a much lower intensity operation that

would still in my opinion be required

because in order to destroy Hamas what

it was on October 7th you have to search

for its military capability its

remaining rocket Supply its remaining

smuggling tunnels it's remaining weapons

manufacturing capability you would still

have to search Southern Gaza in my

opinion to achieve the goal of

destroying Hamas as both the ruling

power because you don't fight an

Insurgency against the ruling power you

fight an Insurgency for a the people or

a government against an Insurgency but

you you have to remove homas from Power

you have to remove their military

capability so best case scen scenario is

that the remaining four battalions are

destroyed as functioning units able to

do their mission the Hamas military

leadership remaining in Gaza is killed

or captured all the hostages are

returned home then like you said is

absolutely the next phase that will

determine whether the World Views it as

your success or not because the

challenge of Gaza is the that next

phase that de postconflict phase of

rebuilding reestablishing a different

framework right this is gets the ideal

which I know will be a big challenge

because it hasn't been there yet is a

viable partner who actually has the the

pursuit of a better life for the people

of Gaza as their number one priority and

not the destruction of Israel as their

number one priority this has been the

history of the Israel Palestine conflict

right is is having viable partner who

will acknowledge Israel should exist to

disavow terrorism and and pursue a a

path to include by action of really

caring for the people so once Hamas is

destroyed which in my opinion has to be

done then Israel has to help in creating

the next governance the power structures

the security framework but also and I

think they will ensure that whatever

comes next in in self-determination

isn't able to gain that much military

capability for the sole purpose of doing

October 7th or launching Rockets as

their primary goal yeah which suggests

that you know in the even in an Ideal

World a two-state solution can't really

be two states in any normal sense we're

not talking about a state that has its

own Army Etc because we would have a

have to have a very different set of

facts on the ground for Israel to

imagine they can live you next to a a

Palestinian state after October 7th

right which this has been the you know

the the great lie is the ideal that

Israel has been the only hurdle to a St

State solution with Palestinians and

Israelis living side by side in harmony

the great lie is that the greatest

greatest hurdle to that was Israel

versus organizations whether it's the PA

Palestinian Authority Hamas whatever it

is whose soul whole you know ideal its

construction everything it does is

actually to attack Israel rather than

pursue a better life within the it's

almost like diplomatic laziness just

two-state solution has been especially

the US administration's goal right but

they can't nobody can articulate what

that actually is in reality in real

terms and and it has been which is now

leading them the uninformed of the world

on that's the solution to the violence

two stat solution which October 7th

can't become hamas's Independence Day

right it can't become Palestinian

Independence Day they did October 7th

and then they should get you know all

the things in return just to make the

violence stop that would just lead to a

much more violent world as well but it's

it's really like diplomatic Leist to

think that that's the solution like

without any recognizing the Decades of

administrations who have pursued that

objective and failed yeah I mean the

reasons for that failure as you point

out have have almost never been

acknowledged but it it is another one of

these obvious and and absolute

asymmetries that strangely everyone

seems to ignore which is that Israel has

wanted a two-state solution I mean not

everyone in Israel but but a majority of

Israelis certainly have wanted a

two-state solution they have wanted to

live in peace with a Palestinian

neighbor that would live in peace with

them but that has not been reciprocated

on the other side there has been a

pervasive commitment to not the

Palestinians getting the state they want

alongside of Israel but rather for the

annihilation of Israel the existence of

Israel has been the thing that has

always been put in question on the

Palestinian side and that's just not a

symmetrical situation so you you would

need a

Palestinian regime and a Palestinian

population that actually wanted to live

in peace alongside Israel for there to

be anything like a basis for a two-state

solution right and this is I mean to get

back to the now what is what is what

comes after Hamas I don't know and I

don't think Israel knows but it knows

like I can talk in certainties versus

the uncertainty that Hamas has to be

destroyed for the Peace of the Middle

East and the Peace of Israel and the

Palestinian people like that's step one

what comes day after the day after

really matters and how the war will be

viewed so Israel has a lot of decisions

but so do the people of Gaza but don't

you see the the untenability of it being

a prolonged Israeli occupation of Gaza I

mean the picture of the aftermath that

you're envisioning does that include a

an internationalization of the whole

project where you bring in some of the

Arab states to figure out how to pacify

and rebuild Gaza or are you actually

picturing a many years of Israel

essentially being the government in Gaza

or back stoping the the the whatever the

Palestinian government is yeah that's a

great question so I don't Envision that

at all because not because of my own

thoughts because Israel says they don't

want that that was tried and then they

left in 2005 and and Hamas was elected

in 2008 and said that's not what we want

despite the accusations of occupation

since then and the blockade and the

partti and all these

misinformed opinions but you the the

other proposition you provided with like

you know an Arab Nation all these other

actors is also not present right this is

the Egypt wants nothing to do with the

people of Gaza they're a part of this if

there was a multinational Arab Nation

Coalition who could assist and and of

course there'll be rebuilding but you

know for Israel not to have a a part of

that as in for another terrorist regime

to because the United States wanted

there to be an election

in Gaza and Hamas was elected both in

Gaza and the west bank and then just

west the Palestinian Authority just said

we don't view that as a legitimate

election that whatever comes next you

know I can't Israel says they don't want

occupation but they will of course be a

part of ensuring that another Hamas

which they're having to do in real time

and they and they do own that right they

they own some of that to prevent another

Hamas not just to destroy and leave it

in chaos absolutely agree with that and

that's the the history of such

operations as well and I agree with you

that in order for this to work there has

to be multiple other nations involved on

identifying who is the other viable

partner in Gaza how to reild rebuild all

the structures not just the buildings so

that they're on a path to a better life

than what Hamas was giving them I know

we're getting to the end of our lotted

time here but I just want to ask you the

um not so simple question of what do you

think Israel should do must do will do

about Hezbollah to the north yeah that's

a a great question I wish more people

would ask it and recognize and and tell

the facts about how hezb and in my last

trip back in February I went up to

Northern Israel to the blue line I

walked the line of where hesa is

attacking since October 8th it entered

the war a second front was there and

Hezbollah has been attacking since

October 8th with not just Rockets but

taking out all the security post and

cameras and and sending people across

the blue line and violating the UN

Security Council I don't you know they

say again if you if you want to listen

to them say the reason they did that was

because of the war in Gaza which is

interesting since they started on

October 8th and Israel hadn't even

declared and conducted operations in

Gaza yet but the situation I can say

with certainty can't continue there's

80,000 people just in Northern Israel

who who haven't been home in last 6

months who living in hotels when I go

there they're in the hotels that I stay

at because of the daily threat of hezb

and hezb is a much larger problem and

Israel had and other nations have been

pursuing a political solution because it

all doesn't have to turn into war for

Hezbollah to back up to the UN Security

Council agreed framework and stop

attacking Israel but if they're not

willing I don't see how Israel doesn't

have to all o use Force to secure its

northern border and allow its citizens

which 880,000 like the number almost

surpasses people's ability to imagine

what that looks like on the ground with

all these cities evacuated 80,000 who

can't go home because Hezbollah attacks

every day I I know Hezbollah is a larger

problem in that they're a larger force a

better trained Forest better Armed Force

they have more Rockets which is to say

it's a in the end is probably a more

important problem to solve but I'm

wondering is is it as large a problem

with respect to the prospect of Civilian

casualties if they decided to launch a

war into Lebanon I mean if the IDF woke

up tomorrow and and was fully committed

to destroying Hezbollah as quickly as

possible uh with all of its all the

applicable Force available to it would

they be by definition creating as much

collateral damage as they have in Gaza

or are things different up in the north

and are the the combatants much easier

to Target without the same kind of loss

of of civilian life right yeah it's a

great question of course it's less

density there are still urban areas in

southern Lebanon that would require the

restraint on the use of force but there

is a lot more military real because

Hezbollah didn't developed the same

strategy as Hamas of of course it went

underground and it's actually called the

land of tunnels in southern Lebanon of

course that's what militaries do to

protect their systems and there's

hundreds of miles in southern Lebanon

but unlike Hamas hezb didn't build them

solely underneath civilians to get

civilians killed yes it would be a much

different situation although the scale

is 10 times right hundreds of thousands

of hez Fighters with you know estimates

of tens of if not hundreds of thousands

of rockets but they are also much more

targetable from a military stance

without the civilian harm because

they're but they're in mountainous

terrain they're more protected it would

still be a very big challenge for the

idea to defeat Hezbollah but you you get

to this question which again people

won't recognize that October 7th was an

existential threat to Israel not just to

Southern Israel they wanted to get to

Jerusalem Hezbollah poses an existential

threat to Israel so it has to respond

hopefully not with military force but if

that if you have to then you have to and

it would take an immense War to defeat

Hezbollah let alone just push them back

to they're no longer threatening

Israel I hesitate to pull the question

of Iran in here because I I know we're

short on time but do you have a uh an

encapsulated version of what you think

can and should and will be done with

respect to Iran either by Israel alone

or by some Coalition of forces yeah I

mean I do and I can I can I think I can

do it shortly that of course Iran is the

head of all these snakes first we have

to acknowledge that Hezbollah Hamas and

the houthis are all Iranian backed

organizations who are trained funded

financed and directed by Iran themselves

so Hezbollah says it like could we could

we at least believe these groups when

they say that they act in accordance

with Iran's Direction Iran is the big

disruptor of the Middle East will you

have some people believe October 7th

came about because Israel was close to a

bilateral relationship with Saudi Arabia

like it has with Jordan Egypt and other

Arab Nations and that was too much of a

threat to Iran who once has its ideals

of the Middle East and has pursued this

proxy war using its proxies to attack

Israel that's absolutely and what it did

on April 14th when it attacked Israel

with 300 drones cruise missiles and

ballistic missiles people just kind of

it was a part of the news but it wasn't

like that's huge that's historic like

that Israel as a nation was attacked by

Iran directly not through its multi-year

decades long use of proxies to attack

Israel but it it directly attacked and

it kind of like it was in the news

everybody wants to deescalate so it kind

of oh we'll just keep moving forward the

world has to deal with Iran not Israel

the United States has to change its

position with Iran and what what would

that change look like or or what should

it look like like I mean do do you think

I'm sort of mystified as to why even you

prior to the attack on Israel just would

the The Hoot the attack on shipping why

we had didn't decide to just exact some

price directly on Iran at that point

right like just destroying their ports

or their ability to export oil it it

seems like the deterrence has completely

failed with respect to Iran in fact it's

reversed Iran has effectively deterred

heard the United States up until this

moment strangely the United States seems

more averse to and worried about and

just frankly scared of a war with Iran

than Iran does 100% no I think it's a

great a great assessment that what we've

seen in the last six months has been a

failure of deterant it was a failure of

Israel to deter Hamas it was a failure

to deter Iran it's a failure of US

foreign policy to deter Iran from

pursuing nuclear weapons to using this

proxy forces to attack countries in the

Middle East 100% but I do understand

because I understand the significance of

State on-state Warfare where why can't

the US just strike Iran well there are

reasons why because that would open a

whole Pandora's box of second and third

order consequences but this is what you

know the luny of Iran attacking Israel

and everybody's like yeah yeah just let

it go just let it go well is the the let

go moment is it to what degree did Iran

engineer a flamboyant but

nonetheless benign attack on Israel by

telegraphing what they were going to do

allow it making it as easy as possible

for the US and the jordanians and and

the Israelis to nullify everything that

was incoming uh how sincere an attack do

we think that was and much of it was

just a kind of a face saving maneuver

which was meant to say okay let's let's

not have a war after we do this let's

settle down yeah no I think it's a great

question because it has been the great

again interpretation of the facts um the

fact that even the United States like we

had no warning there was no telegraphing

yes because it's really hard to move

stuff around in Iran without somebody

seen it you know from satellites and

everything but there was nothing that

was telegraphed and by the intentions of

what was shot at Israel and yeah so

everybody uses the 99% of it all shot

down thanks to Israel's defensive

capabilities and the fact that United

States helped and Jordan helped and

Saudi Arabia helped and like like what

world are we living in where no that was

a legitimate attack with full intention

to really cause a massive amount of

damage and civilian cases in Israel I

mean 300 drones isn't a oh I know you'll

shoot all this down ballistic and cruise

missiles I know you'll get all these you

know we all know I'm just trying to save

face no no the fact is that they

actually had and that was a technique

that has been used in like Ukraine send

a wave of drones to overload the air

defense then send in cruise and

ballistic missiles just because it was

all knocked down wasn't mean that we're

intention and actions really matter but

we're living in a world where in the the

result matters like that's that's not

the way it works yeah so that's

that's another interesting asymmetry

here the effectiveness of Israel's

defense Israel's defense in this case in

concert with their allies helping them

the effectiveness is being held against

Israel as a sign that that any further

engagement with Iran would be by

definition an overreaction because

nothing happened you know like they

tried to kill you but they didn't

succeed so like you're the one who's now

hysterical what are you doing responding

to this you know it's the same thing

that's happened for years is with you

know Israel having invested so much in

Iron Dome and in their bomb shelters

that the ineffectuality of hamas's

rockets and hezbollah's Rockets has

delivered the message to the whole world

that Israel doesn't really have an

existential problem because they

everyone can just keep going to bomb

shelters and and the Iron Dome seems to

work so you there's really no no Factor

over there all the while Hezbollah and

Hamas are really trying to kill

civilians in Israel it's an amazing

situation well John it's it's been

fantastic to get you on the podcast and

to get your expertise here you've

cleared up I think a lot of confusion

even and some of my own confusion

frankly on many of these points so um

please keep doing what you're doing and

and as the chaos proceeds I would love

to get you back here at some point to

bring us up to the minute and help us

understand what's been happening well

thanks Sam and and thanks for having me

a great conversation

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