Professor Tamburini: The Absence of Ennahda Is a Bleeding Wound for Tunisian Politics

Summary

In this insightful interview, Professor Tamburini discusses the enduring influence of colonial legacies on North African and Middle Eastern political systems, the role of authoritarian regimes in state stability, and the impact of international powers like the EU, US, and China on regional dynamics. He explores Tunisia’s constitutional challenges, the use of emergency powers, and the implications of President Kais Saied’s consolidation of authority. The conversation also highlights the role of Islamic High Councils in controlling religious discourse and the absence of moderate voices in Tunisia's political landscape, shedding light on the country’s unique and evolving democratic trajectory.

Takeaways

• 😀 The colonial legacy in North Africa and the Middle East has deep and lasting impacts, particularly on state formation and the absence of cohesive national identities in some countries, such as Libya and Iraq.
• 😀 Authoritarian regimes in the region often use Islam as a source of legitimacy and stability, but this is not always sufficient to prevent collapse, especially when public welfare is not met.
• 😀 International powers, like the European Union, the U.S., and China, influence the political dynamics of North Africa and the Middle East differently, with the EU focused on immigration, China on economic penetration, and the U.S. seeking stability and isolation of adversaries.
• 😀 The lack of a strong constitutional review system in Tunisia is due to historical factors, such as political immaturity and the absence of judicial tradition in constitutional control.
• 😀 Prolonged states of emergency, such as in Tunisia, Algeria, and Morocco, undermine the rule of law and democratic institutions, enabling autocratic governance and suppressing civil and political rights.
• 😀 Tunisia's use of Article 80 of its Constitution to impose emergency powers has been controversial, as the article is vaguely worded and has been exploited for political power consolidation.
• 😀 Tunisia's shift toward an autocratic regime under Kais Saied has significant long-term implications for its democratic institutions, particularly with the weakening of checks and balances.
• 😀 Islamic High Councils in North Africa, such as in Algeria and Morocco, have been instrumental in promoting state-sponsored forms of Islam to consolidate power, control religious discourse, and combat radical movements.
• 😀 Tunisia's post-Arab Spring transition is unique due to its blend of populism, direct democracy, and an instrumental use of religion, which has resulted in autocratic consolidation.
• 😀 The low voter turnout in Tunisia’s October 6 election (28%) reflects widespread disillusionment with politics and the inability of political leaders to address the country’s ongoing economic crises, leading to a legitimacy crisis for the government.

Q & A

How do colonial legacies affect contemporary political structures and governance in North Africa and the Middle East?

Colonial legacies have a profound influence on contemporary politics in these regions, often manifesting in the lack of national identity and a continued reliance on tribal or local allegiances. Countries like Libya and Iraq struggle with state-building due to their colonial history. Additionally, many countries still use colonial-era legal systems, such as the influence of French law in Morocco, which affects governance and political stability.

What factors contribute to the sustainability or collapse of authoritarian regimes in North Africa and the Middle East?

Authoritarian regimes in these regions sustain themselves by leveraging Islam as a source of legitimacy and using the fear of disorder to maintain control. However, they face challenges when they fail to meet basic welfare needs, as seen in Tunisia and Algeria, where regimes sometimes struggle to maintain stability. The use of Islamic legitimacy is often not enough if the regime fails to address the populace's needs.

How do international powers like the EU, the US, and China influence the political dynamics of North Africa and the Middle East?

These international powers have different agendas. The European Union's foreign policy is fragmented, and it focuses primarily on immigration issues. China is more economically driven, focusing on commerce and market penetration. Meanwhile, the US is retreating from the region but remains interested in stability and preventing foreign adversaries from gaining influence. Overall, the rise of smaller and middle powers challenges the traditional Western dominance in the region.

What are the primary obstacles preventing Tunisia from establishing a stable constitutional review system?

The historical lack of legislative maturity and political instability have hindered Tunisia's ability to establish a functional constitutional review system. Under previous regimes like those of Bourguiba and Ben Ali, constitutional control was either non-existent or merely advisory. Even after 2011, the political climate has not supported the creation of a robust, independent constitutional court.

What are the long-term implications of prolonged states of emergency on the rule of law and democracy in Algeria, Morocco, and Tunisia?

Prolonged states of emergency in these countries limit the development of democratic institutions by granting the executive branch unchecked power, bypassing checks and balances. Civil and political rights are often undermined, leading to authoritarian practices becoming normalized. In Tunisia, this threatens the potential for a genuine democratic transition.

How did Tunisia's use of Article 80 of its Constitution impact the balance of power in the country?

Article 80 grants the president the power to declare a state of emergency in cases of imminent danger to the nation. However, the broad and vague wording of the article allowed for an unchallenged concentration of power in the hands of the president, especially since the Constitutional Court, which could have checked these actions, was not functional. This has set a dangerous precedent for authoritarian rule in Tunisia.

How does Tunisia's democratic transition compare to other countries in the MENA region post-Arab Spring?

Tunisia's democratic transition stands out due to its use of populism and direct democracy, with leaders like Kais Saied leveraging nationalistic and religious rhetoric to consolidate power. While other Arab countries fell into either military rule or continued authoritarianism, Tunisia's trajectory has been more focused on a balance between Islamic governance and civil state ideals, although it faces setbacks in recent years.

What was the impact of Kais Saied's re-election in October 2023 on Tunisia's political legitimacy?

Kais Saied's re-election, with only 28% voter turnout, indicates widespread disillusionment with politics in Tunisia, rather than a direct challenge to his legitimacy. The low turnout reflects the public's frustration with the lack of tangible improvements in everyday life, such as economic conditions and employment, rather than outright rejection of the electoral process.

What role did the Ennahda movement play in Tunisia's democratic transition, and what has happened to it since Kais Saied came to power?

Ennahda initially played a key role in Tunisia's transition by advocating for a civil state that blends democratic values with Islam. However, since Kais Saied's rise to power, the movement has faced marginalization, with Saied dissolving the party and pushing its members out of politics. This has weakened the moderate Islamic voice in Tunisia and left a gap in the country's political discourse.

How effective have Islamic High Councils been in maintaining political legitimacy and controlling religious discourse in the MENA region?

Islamic High Councils in countries like Algeria, Morocco, and Tunisia have been instrumental in consolidating power by promoting a state-approved version of Islam. These councils control religious discourse, ensuring it aligns with government policies and fighting radical ideologies. They have been effective in preventing the spread of foreign religious movements, such as Salafism or Shia Islam, that challenge the state's version of Islam.