Unrecoverable Catastrophe Just Hit America's Biggest Banks

Summary

The video script discusses a looming financial crisis in the US, triggered by a collapse in commercial real estate values, which is impacting banks significantly. The crisis is attributed to the tightening of credit standards by banks, leading to less money creation and a strain on the economy. The Federal Reserve's rate hikes are identified as a key factor causing banks to increase reserves and buy bonds, which in turn drives down interest rates. The script also highlights the potential for bank failures and suggests that the Fed may need to lower rates or engage in quantitative easing. Amidst this, the script introduces a sponsor, Cellide Corp (CVM), which is highlighted for its promising developments in cancer, autoimmune, and infectious disease treatments, with a particular focus on its product Multi-kIND. The company's positive financial results and the potential market for its products are presented as reasons for its stock's upward momentum, suggesting a possible 35% increase based on technical analysis.

Takeaways

• 📉 **US Economy in Crisis**: The US economy is facing a significant downturn due to a catastrophe in the banking sector, which is expected to lead to a deep financial crisis.
• 🏦 **Banks Overexposed**: American banks, particularly regional ones, are heavily exposed to commercial real estate loans that are now worth a fraction of their initial value, causing distress.
• 📈 **Investor Shift to Commercial Real Estate**: Global investors have recently favored commercial real estate as a safe alternative to bonds, but this is now changing, affecting bank stability.
• 💸 **Loan Delinquencies Rising**: As banks raise reserves to prepare for potential losses, they are buying bonds, which drives interest rates down, leading to increased loan delinquencies.
• 📉 **Commercial Real Estate Decline**: The value of commercial real estate is dropping, which is a significant change from its historical tendency to hold value even during recessions.
• 🚨 **Fed's Limited Options**: The Federal Reserve may be forced to lower interest rates or engage in quantitative easing as a response to the looming bank failures caused by commercial real estate issues.
• 📊 **Yield Curve Inversion**: The Federal Reserve's rate hikes have led to an inverted yield curve, a historical predictor of economic recessions.
• 🏗️ **Multifamily Mortgages Stressed**: There's an increasing number of delinquencies on multifamily mortgages, adding to the stress on the banking system.
• 📉 **Asset Devaluation**: The devaluation of commercial real estate assets is leading to a potential loss for banks, which in turn are increasing their reserves to cover these losses.
• 📉 **Market Downturn**: The stock market is showing signs of a downturn with technical indicators suggesting a potential increase in the stock price of a featured company, but the overall market faces headwinds.
• 💡 **Positive Outlook for Celadon**: Despite the economic challenges, Celadon Corporation (CVM) is highlighted as a company with potential for growth due to its focus on improving treatments for various diseases.

Q & A

What is the main topic of discussion in the transcript?

The main topic of discussion is the potential financial crisis in the US economy, particularly focusing on the impact of plunging office values on America's biggest banks and the broader economic implications.

What is the role of commercial real estate in the current financial situation?

Commercial real estate plays a significant role as its value tends to hold during recessions, but the current situation indicates a shift with dropping values, affecting banks that have heavily invested in these properties.

How does the Federal Reserve's actions impact the banking sector?

The Federal Reserve's actions, particularly its decision to raise interest rates, have led to increased pressure on banks. As banks face potential losses, they need to build their reserves, which can lead to a decrease in bond purchases and a subsequent drop in interest rates.

What is the significance of the 9-day moving average crossing upward through the 21-day moving average?

The crossing of the 9-day moving average above the 21-day moving average is a significant short-term trading signal that suggests the stock could potentially increase by as much as 35%.

What is the current state of loan demand and bank lending?

The current state is one of tightening credit standards and declining loan demand. Banks are making it harder to get loans, which is leading to less money being created in the economy and potentially contributing to a financial crisis.

Why are banks tightening their lending standards?

Banks are tightening their lending standards due to the increased risk of delinquencies and defaults on loans, especially in the commercial real estate sector. They are also trying to ensure they can recover their investments as the economy faces potential downturns.

What is the potential impact of the Federal Reserve's quantitative tightening on the economy?

Quantitative tightening by the Federal Reserve can lead to a reduction in the money supply, which may exacerbate the financial stress on banks and the economy, potentially leading to a recession or financial crisis.

What is the current situation with commercial real estate loans bundled into Collateralized Loan Obligations (CLOs)?

Approximately 8.6% of commercial real estate loans bundled into CLOs are distressed, indicating that they are either late on payments or banks do not believe borrowers will be able to make payments, which is a dangerous sign for the banking system.

How does the塞尔莱公司 (Celsion Corporation) and its product Multikine relate to the discussion?

塞尔莱公司 (Celsion Corporation) is mentioned as a sponsor for the show and is discussed as a company with potential for growth. Multikine is their product that has shown promising results in treating head and neck cancer, which could drive demand and positively impact their stock.

What is the current stance of the Federal Reserve on interest rates and the economy?

The Federal Reserve has been tightening interest rates to curb inflation. However, there is a debate on whether the neutral interest rates are set too low and if the Fed needs to do more to cool inflation. The Fed is also reportedly backing off from quantitative tightening, indicating a potential awareness of an impending economic issue.

What are the implications of banks not originating enough new loans?

If banks do not originate enough new loans, it leads to a decrease in the money supply within the economy. This can cause financial conditions to tighten, making it harder for businesses and consumers to access credit, which can lead to a decrease in economic growth and potentially a financial crisis.

Outlines

00:00

📉 Economic Crisis and Bank Distress

Steve VanMeter discusses an impending financial crisis in the US, triggered by a collapse in the commercial real estate sector. He explains that the crisis is due to falling property values, which are affecting banks heavily as they hold loans on these properties. The situation is exacerbated by regional banks being overexposed to these loans. VanMeter also highlights the role of the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy and its impact on banks' reserves and bond buying behavior, which in turn influences interest rates. He warns that the crisis could lead to bank failures and a recession, similar to the 2008 financial crisis.

05:01

🏢 Commercial Real Estate Loan Distress

The script addresses the rising distress in commercial real estate loans packaged into Collateralized Loan Obligations (CLOs). It explains that about 8.6% of these loans are distressed, either delinquent on payments or not expected to be repaid. Banks are under pressure as they have little room for error, having borrowed heavily from the Federal Reserve. The script also discusses the impact of the Federal Reserve's rate hikes on the banking system, which has led to a surge in borrowing rates and a strain on landlords' cash flows. The potential for a wave of bad loans to default is high, which could lead to significant economic implications and bank failures.

10:01

📈 Tightening Credit Standards and Economic Concerns

The Federal Reserve's Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on loan demand and bank lending is summarized, indicating that US banks have tightened credit standards, making it harder to obtain loans. This tightening is dangerous as it leads to less money being created in the economy, which is particularly problematic in a debt-based economy like the US. The survey also shows a decline in loan demand across various sectors, which, coupled with tightening standards, could lead to economic stagnation and a potential crisis. The script suggests that the Federal Reserve's actions, such as raising short-term interest rates, are contributing to these issues.

15:02

💹 Financial Stress and the Federal Reserve's Role

The script outlines the Federal Reserve's role in the economy's financial stress, particularly focusing on how the Fed's rate hikes have led to higher borrowing costs for businesses and households. Banks are tightening lending standards, and consumers are facing increased minimum credit score requirements for credit cards. The script suggests that the US economy is credit-constrained, which could lead to a financial crisis as consumers and businesses struggle to access credit. It also mentions Tesla's layoffs and falling vehicle deliveries as a sign of economic trouble, and discusses the potential for a deep and protracted financial crisis, affecting commercial real estate and multifam sectors.

20:05

💊 Investment Opportunities Amidst Economic Turmoil

Steve VanMeter shifts the focus to a sponsor of the show, Cellide Corporation (CVM), which is highlighted as a potential investment opportunity amidst the economic turmoil. The company is described as being dedicated to research and development for treating cancer, autoimmune, and infectious diseases. The script details the company's recent financial results, focusing on its product Multi-kIND, which targets head and neck cancer patient populations. It outlines the positive results of the product, including a high survival rate and significant tumor reduction, with no safety signals or toxicities compared to standard care. The script concludes with a bullish outlook on Cellide's stock, suggesting a potential 35% increase based on technical analysis.

Keywords

💡Financial Crisis

A financial crisis is a situation where financial markets are unstable, and investors are uncertain about the economy's future. In the video, it is suggested that the US economy is heading into a financial crisis due to the collapse of commercial real estate values and the subsequent impact on banks, which ties into the broader theme of economic instability.

💡Commercial Real Estate

Commercial real estate refers to buildings or land used solely for business purposes, such as office buildings, hotels, and retail space. The script discusses the plummeting values of these properties, which are causing banks to face significant losses as they are heavily invested in these assets.

💡Regional Banks

Regional banks are financial institutions that operate within a specific geographic area, as opposed to national banks. The video highlights that regional banks in the US are particularly vulnerable due to their concentration of loans in commercial real estate, which is now devaluing.

💡Collateralized Loan Obligations (CLOs)

CLOs are a type of financial instrument that repackages loans into securities that can be sold to investors. The video mentions that about 8.6% of commercial real estate loans bundled into CLOs are distressed, indicating a high risk of default and financial instability.

💡Interest Rates

Interest rates are the cost of borrowing money and are set by central banks like the Federal Reserve in the US. The script discusses how rising interest rates have put pressure on commercial real estate, leading to a decrease in property values and an increase in loan defaults.

💡Federal Reserve

The Federal Reserve, often referred to as the Fed, is the central banking system of the United States. It is responsible for monetary policy and is mentioned in the video as a key player in the potential financial crisis due to its decisions on interest rates and its role in the economy.

💡Loan Delinquencies

Loan delinquencies occur when borrowers fail to make payments on time. The video script indicates that there is an increasing number of delinquencies on multifamily mortgages, which is a sign of financial stress within the banking system.

💡Quantitative Tightening

Quantitative tightening is the process by which a central bank reduces the size of its balance sheet, effectively reversing the actions taken during quantitative easing. The video suggests that the Fed has started to back off from quantitative tightening, indicating a shift in monetary policy.

💡Multifamily Mortgages

Multifamily mortgages are loans used to finance the purchase of properties with multiple residential units, such as apartment buildings. The script discusses the stress on these types of loans, which is contributing to the financial instability within the banking sector.

💡Yield Curve

The yield curve is a graphical representation of the interest rates on debt for a range of maturities. An inverted yield curve, where short-term rates are higher than long-term rates, is often seen as a predictor of a recession. The video mentions the yield curve as an indicator of the economic situation.

💡Credit Standards

Credit standards refer to the criteria used by banks and other financial institutions to determine whether to extend credit to a borrower. The video discusses how banks are tightening their credit standards, making it harder for businesses and individuals to obtain loans, which can slow economic growth.

Highlights

An unrecoverable catastrophe has hit America's biggest banks, potentially leading to a deep financial crisis.

The crisis is linked to plunging office values, affecting banks significantly as they are heavily invested in commercial real estate.

Global investors previously saw commercial real estate as a safe alternative to bonds, but this perception is changing rapidly.

US regional banks are particularly exposed due to their high volume of loans for buildings that have lost significant value.

As loan maturities approach, investors may write down properties or walk away, forcing lenders to reserve more capital for potential losses.

Banks, when anticipating losses, build reserves by buying bonds, which drives interest rates down.

Distress in commercial real estate is causing banks to tighten credit standards, reducing the money supply in the economy.

The Federal Reserve's quantitative tightening may be a precursor to a significant economic downturn.

Delinquencies on multifamily mortgages are increasing, indicating stress in the banking system.

8.6% of commercial real estate loans in collateralized loan obligations were distressed as of April.

The Treasury Secretary, Janet Yellen, is set to buy back low-yielding treasuries to attract deposits back into banks.

The Federal Reserve's senior loan officer opinion survey indicates that banks are tightening credit standards despite economic improvement narratives.

Loan demand has declined as banks make it harder to get credit, impacting businesses and consumers' ability to access funds.

The Fed's rate hikes have led to higher borrowing costs and banks tightening lending standards, contributing to economic stress.

Celside Corp (CVM) is highlighted as a company to watch, with a potential 35% stock return based on technical analysis.

Celside Corp focuses on R&D to improve treatments for cancer, autoimmune, and infectious diseases.

Their product Multi-k has shown significant survival benefits and tumor reduction rates in head and neck cancer patients.

Celside's vaccine offers a promising new approach to treating rheumatoid arthritis with minimal side effects.

Zack's Small Cap research has put a strong analyst recommendation behind Celside Corp's stock.

Transcripts

it will be chaos I'm your Steve Van

Meter and thanks for joining me today

and our show today an unrecoverable

catastrophe just hit America's biggest

banks and what I want you to understand

this is going to have massive economic

implications and send the US economy

deep into a financial crisis I'm going

to show you who's behind this and why

it's too late to keep the US economy

from crashing down plus we have a

sponsor for today's show I'd like to

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off of oversold levels on some fantastic

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to cross upward through the 21 day and

this is a huge short-term trading signal

that suggests the stock could go up as

much as 35% we'll show you that stay

tuned to the end of the show or check

out the pin comment or description for

more information now overa Bloomberg

where he picked it a straight up with a

headline of the brutal reality of

plunging office values of here and this

is going to affect the banks in a big

way because I want to take you through

the setup and show you what just

happened and why this is the next

catastrophe that's going to send again

the US economy deep into the financial

crisis it's all because of one move by

one politically motivated organization

as the Fallout stands to reverberate

widely the past decade of Rock Bottom

rates Global Investors piled into

offices and other commercial buildings

as to perceive safe alternative to bonds

mainly for the cash flow and one of the

big facts about commercial real estate

is it tends to hold its value even

during a recession or financial crisis

the value of buildings don't drop too

much but that's changing now in a big

way it's having an impact on the banks

and as you're seeing the there's nothing

they can do about this as American

cities from Los Angeles to New York have

counted on top dollar office values to

help fill their property tax coffers and

lenders particularly us Regional Banks

as we've warned about are loaded up on

these loans for buildings that are now

worth a fraction of their initial price

and it's why pockets of distress have

cropped up in areas as far away from the

US as Germany and even Japan as Mor loon

is near their maturity age which is

starting this year and investors write

down Properties or walk away lenders

across the world will have to stockpile

more reserves to deal with possible

losses and when Banks raise reserves and

again this is all coming back to the one

move I'm going to show you who's behind

this and why it's too late and just how

devastating is going to be to the banks

in the US economy because when the banks

are facing a loss when they believe

they're going to lose money or

potentially lose money they have to

build their reserves and that means

taking profits as cash and set them

aside but one thing they do with that

well they buy bonds that drives interest

rates down something we have predicted

would happen and would be led by the

Banks but exactly how this plays out for

each company will largely depend on the

qualities of each of their loan meaning

distress May pop up in different areas

at a variety of times suggesting at the

Federal Reserve level who has said the

banking sector is strong and sound well

based on what we're seeing there's no

sign of it and then what we see today

that happened well it changes everything

and as in December offic has accounted

for 41% of the value distressed us

properties which is staggering at around

86 billion this according to msci

potential distress risk refers to as the

erosion of an asset's Current financial

standing is nearly a 235 billion across

all property types and while many people

say rates are never going to go back

down it's not possible there's no way

fed will take rates back down to zero

when you understand that these

commercial real estate buildings are

going to cause bank failures there's

going to be only one option the FED has

because they only have two tools in

their toolbx one's to lower the federal

funds rate the other is to do QE and you

start to get a sense of why the FED is

started already backing off their

quantitative tightening they sense

something big is coming and soon and

what we see now is surging distress in

the commercial real estate

collateralized loan obligation loans is

now spraying lenders to to rush to

repurchase delinquent multifam mortgages

and here you can see this continues to

experience elevated stress the Lays

cracked emerges the increasing number of

delinquencies on multif family mortgages

and this is critical because when I show

you what's going on in America's biggest

banks all of this starts to make sense

when we see this happen it so is the

seed of at the very least a recession

and as we saw during of course 20089 an

allout financial crisis we're seeing it

now happen again and all for the same

reasons as before and in April about

8.6% of commercial real estate loans

bundled into collateralized loan

obligations were distressed that means

of course either they're late on

payments or the banks don't believe the

borrower going to be able to make

payments and that is dangerous because

the banks have no margin for error

they've already borrowed billions of

dollars from the FED they have to start

paying that back as we've talked about

in Prior shows they have no margin for

error they're desperate for deposits

even which is why of course we know the

treasury secretary Janet Yellen starting

next month it's going to buy back some

of those low yielding treasury curies to

give interest back into the bank so they

can try to attract deposits and here we

see that of course distress Clos now

reach a record high set in January and

this is dangerous but something that Al

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description for more information as the

loans now bundled into CR Clos were

merged with funds from IND idual

investors to acquire multif family

housing during the co area and after

that borrowing rates surge of course on

the back of the Federal Reserve we'll

talk more about them in a little bit at

catching many off guard because even the

FED did not realize that they were going

to raise rates as fast as they did and

normally they go at a very gradual Pace

it's deliberately done to give the

banking system time to adjust what

happened this time no room for the banks

to adjust to this at all they bought a

lot of low yielding debt during Co and

then they got stuck with it a

significant portion of the detering

loans had floating interest rates and

well that's dangerous when rates go up

putting massive pressure on landlord

cash flows diminishing the market worth

of properties and obliterating equity in

a large number Investments according to

trap 78.5 billion of cclo loans are now

outstanding meaning many issuers are

racing to find ways to prevent a tsunami

of bad loans from defaulting or risk

losing the fees they collect on the

Securities and it's all because of

something going on in the banking system

I'll show you that here but I want you

understand the setup that being these

small Banks and even the big banks are

under massive stress for all of this

commercial real estate that loans that

they originated and it's going to have

serious economic implications what I

believe they'll send us into an allout

financial crisis and caus many banks to

fail as the multif family CR clo Market

was not prepared for rate volatility no

surprise nobody was the result is

significant distress the longer the FED

delays rate cuts the worse the CR mess

will get and that's the belief is well

if the FED would just cut rates

everything would be okay but maybe it

wouldn't maybe as I'll show you it would

get worse because now let's take a look

at what's going on inside America's

biggest banks that's causing all of this

stress calling all of this economic

problems to start to crop up why do we

not have enough money to pay on all

these loans something I want you to

understand the way a debt-based economy

works is new money is created and that

new money is created through lending and

that goes to pay off old loans happens

all the time and if you think about it

you'll understand it because where is

growth coming from this from Zero Hedge

fed says Banks tighten credit standards

while loan demand drops further and this

is critical because in a debt-based

economy the commercial Banks create

money when they originated new loan so

when the banks decide to curtail their

lending activities well what happens

that leads to tighter Financial

conditions and the more importantly less

money created in the economy so if

you're trying to throttle back the

economy well getting the banks to

originate fewer loans well that tends to

work one of the dangerous and the one

critical thing about this why it leads

to catastrophe is because you need

enough money at any given time not only

to sustain the growth rate of the

economy that you're hoping to achieve

but to pay all the debt well if there

isn't enough money to do both well next

thing you know you start to see

delinquencies go up and that leads to

defaults and defaults lead of course to

allout crises and fed cutting rates as

we take a look at the first quarter

fed's senior loan officer opinion survey

now this is one of my favorite quarterly

surveys I love it when this comes out

the one place where every 3 months

investors go to find informations on

changes to both loan demand and Bank

lending tightness this was released and

revealed on more of the same despite the

daily propaganda of economic Improvement

the slle found that more US Banks

tightened credit standards in the first

quarter and this is dangerous and what

that means is it's even harder to get a

loan than before so if you struggled in

if you're trying to get a loan say well

I'll just wait maybe things will get

better they're getting worse and that's

a problem for the banks because the

longer they go without origin enough new

loans eventually something in the system

breaks we're seeing that now at a time

we have record amount of debt levels you

wonder why we always have crisis at

record levels of debt well we can blame

the FED as you're about to see and of

course loan demand declined and I'll

show you why mainly because people

realize they couldn't get a loan and of

course without easy credit and without

Rising loan demand it's virtually

impossible for an economy will qualify

that a debt-based economy especially

when that's financialized as the US to

grow and yet we are bombarded day after

day suggesting the economy is booming

and taking a closer look at the slooh

survey this was back between March 25th

and April 8 you find a net share of US

Banks and tighten standards on the all

important commercial industrial lending

this is a big one because it's the

commercial banks that create money when

they lend now money is destroyed

whenever a commercial loan makes a

principal payment whether it's a regular

monthly payment or quarterly or even a

payoff that money is destroyed from the

system so even worse when there isn't

enough money or enough new Lo to offset

the amount of loans being paid down

which happens during of course periods

of low interest rates you have a lot of

low interest mortgages or low interest

loans originate well that means more

money on net is being destroyed that is

dangerous and this what we're seeing

here that they tighten standards on Mid

and large siiz businesses now

15.6% in the first three months that

from

14.5% of banks in the fourth quarter

other types of loans I saw tightening

liting standards include new and used

auto loan which is why it's harder to

get one of them titer standards at 9.8

from 6.3 and small firm credit from 19.7

to

18.6 suggesting more Banks tightening

making it harder to get credit they want

to make sure they get their money back

they're not convinced and at the same

time credit ease modestly relative of

course as for credit card loans

construction loans and multif family

residential loans and here's the issue

what we see when you look at the net

percentage of domestic Banks tiny

standards here for commercial industrial

loans to firms of all sizes this shown

in blue and on net what tightening when

it's above that horizontal black line

easing when it's below so I want you to

notice here going into the dotom bubble

what happened Banks were tightening

standards what happened going into of

course the recession before that Banks

were tightening standards how about the

global financial crisis Banks tighten

standards the little slowdown we saw

2015 2016 the banks were there too and

how about now we haven't seen a trigger

it's not yet and what we can note here

is Banks Titan standards you look at

commercial industrial lending they shown

on a year-over-year rated change what

happens is it starts to decelerate and

eventually contract and is these periods

of contraction where banks on net are

destroying money and granted we're not

destroying a lot of it yet but we are

destroying money that's why we're

starting to see you know these

delinquency rates go up because of

course that is a problem and what we

know there isn't enough money to pay on

all the loans and who's the Catalyst

behind all this and why is it too late

well it's everything to do with a

Federal Reserve because when they raise

short-term interest rates higher than

the market wants them that's called

inverting the yield curve and here you

can see where two-year yields which are

very sensitive to the federal funds rate

or higher than tenure that shows up

anytime they're inverted down here now

the Market's perception is well if rates

go down then everything's okay and rates

go down you see that red line go up the

yield curve Rises but normally what

happens Banks still tighten lending

standards because what happens then is

you see longer term rates fall along

with short-term rates and the only

difference now is the margin that banks

have to lend gets thinner and thinner as

rates go down they tighten standards

even more until we go into allout crisis

in the FED finally backed off and lowers

rates less than the market expectation

which they always do and on the demand

side the picture was mixed as well while

demand declined across the board Rel the

Baseline and did modly SLE for

commercial industrial loans and credit

card loan demand auto loan demand and

commercial industrial loan demand all

dropped sequentially mainly because

people realize they can't get a loan and

part of that has to do with the fact

that delinquency rates are rising so if

you're in delinquency well the odds of

you getting a load are not good here you

can see the net percentage of domestic

Banks tightening standards to firms of

all sizes against the delinquency rate

on all loans you see Consumer loans in

green and and then credit cards in

purple and what we can note is during

periods where banks are tightening

standards what happens is delinquency

rates go up which validates the fact

that the banks aren't Crea enough money

to sustain the economy and to pay on all

the debt it's only now a matter of time

before we see an all out catastrophe

which is why I started the show it it

will be chaos as banks have been

tightening credit standard since the

second quarter of 2022 following string

of high-profile Regional bank failures

of course that's the excuse the reality

is the FED as the FED hiked its rate

last year to two decade High and a bid

to curve inflation well if you're not

creating enough money you're certainly

not going to get inflation and high

borrowing costs have weighed on

businesses and households and Banks also

tighten lending standards for consumers

as a significant netshare of banks

reported increasing the minimum credit

score requirement for credit cards while

moderate net share of banks reported

doing so for auto loans and other

Consumer loans and in summary the US

economy is from Zero Hedge remains badly

credit constrained on to supply and

demand and that means of course we're

likely to head into a financial crisis

here because consumers and businesses

can't access Credit and we talking about

how the rates fall across the Cur board

and short up here you can see the

federal funds rate in blue against two 5

10 and 30 year when the fed's cutting

well usually yields are dropping ahead

of the FED but when the FED Cuts

everything comes down that's why Landing

standards continue to tighten in these

cases but if you ask the fed well cash

Cari questions of policy tipan as

inflation stalls suggesting he thinks

it's not tight enough and sure enough he

single out persistent housing inflation

is a potential indicator that neutral

interest rates those that are neither

restrict or stimulate the economy may be

higher in the short term suggesting he

thinks they're too low and that could

mean the FED has more work to do to cool

inflation in an essay he published on

his bank's website this week my

colleagues and I are of course very

happy with the labor market has Prov

resilient well hang tight on that cash

Curry but with inflation in the most

recent quarter moving sideways it raises

questions about how restrictive policy

actually is and of course we talk about

that what he published another essay

back in February which he said policy

makers had time to gauge incoming Data

before low rates but they don't and

that's the issue here because when we

look at the labor market we're seeing

further signs that things are going

wrong in fact what do we see from Tesla

more employees now laid off as a

bloodbath enters its fourth week and

here we can see Elon mus said in an

email to employees a company needed to

be absolutely hardcore about cuts and

staffers working under Executives who

don't obviously pass the excellent

necessary and trustworthy test while

they're out of the job must privately

Express desire to lay after at least 20%

of the company because its corly vehicle

deliveries fell by that much and here

you can see when Banks tighten standards

again there's just not enough credit to

sustain the growth of the economy anday

pay the debts that leads to less demand

of course inflation coming down and the

all important continued unemployment

claims tends to go higher which sets the

stage now that we know for a fact we're

not only headed into recession but most

likely a deep and protracted financial

crisis as we're going to likely see a

lot of commercial real estate and

multifam cause small and mid Regional

Banks to outright fail but one thing

we're very bullish on that's their

sponsor Today's Show sells side cor you

find them on the New York Stock exchange

under symbol CVM all the information in

the description and pin comment below

let's take a look at what's going on

with the company and what the catalyst

is behind this recent stock move that we

think could send it up another 35% based

on the tacticals alone and here you can

see they're dedicated to research and

development directed at improving the

treatment of cancer autoimmune and

infectious diseases here's from a recent

2024 Financial results they target head

and neck cancer patient populations for

the product multi-k kind and its Target

population which sh its fiveyear risk of

death cut in half can be identified

prior to surgery a p diagnosis with

tests of Physicians routinely used in

cancer screens a key finding for multi-

kind and here you can see of course

summary of results 73% survival rate for

multi- kind versus 45% in the control of

5 years 28% absolute survival benefit

tumor reduction rate greater than 133%

tumor downstage aging greater than 35%

here's a big one no safety signals or

toxicities versus standard care and an

estimated population of 145,000 patients

is of course a catalyst of what we see

is going to be demand for multi and as

we look forward here their leaps vaccine

offers promising new paradigm that to

treat rheumatoid arthritis in the

article authors note that the currently

available therapeutic Arsenal for the

treatment of RA consists of mainly

immunos oppressive or blade of drugs

which may carry the potential risk of

facilitating recurrent or primary

infectious disease of cancers this is of

course what the goal is at cell side

they focus on utilizing a healthy immune

system to overcome disease safely and

with minimal side effects and that is of

course what we see as a driver of their

stock that's even why Zach's small cap

putting analyst recommendation behind

this Zach's big on of course celide here

we can see on the New York Stock

Exchange symbol CVM I showed you the

bigger picture earlier but look at this

beautiful Supply Zone here what do we

know momentum in terms of the RSI and

the macd rising out of this price

breaking out right above the supply Zone

just as it's supposed to do what we see

is when the sellers are done and the

buyers have snapped up all of the

available stock what you see is it rises

out of there just as we're seeing in

this chart setting up a move up here to

the volume profile line that would be a

35% move higher up in into that upward

Supply Zone and here you can see on the

30-day chart you can see right now

there's a little Battle Ground between

buyers and sellers this would be the

Catalyst if the stock can break through

this level that is the Catalyst to send

it even higher and you can zoom into the

10day what you see the volume profile

it's very clear where the buyers are at

on the stock because again the market is

turning bullish momentum is turning

bullish and on a tactical basis to set

up of course sell side symbol on the New

York Stock scene CVM is absolutely

bullish but as always with any company

we feature on our show you're under no

obligation to purchase her stock be sure

to do your own research before placing

any trades and with that I'm Steve

vanmeer thanks for watching thanks for

being fans bye now