Rainer Strack: The surprising workforce crisis of 2030 — and how to start solving it now

Summary

The speaker discusses the impending global workforce crisis, emphasizing the challenges of labor shortages, skill mismatches, and cultural shifts. Drawing from data on demographic trends and migration patterns, they highlight the urgent need for countries and companies to adapt. Key strategies include workforce planning, attracting diverse talent, and upskilling. The speaker stresses that employees should be valued as assets, not costs, and the future workforce must be understood and appreciated. Technology, while automating jobs, will also create new roles, further complicating the skill gap.

Takeaways

• 👶 Germany is facing a significant demographic shift with a declining working-age population, projected to be much smaller by 2030.
• 📉 The labor supply in Germany is expected to decrease substantially, posing challenges for sustaining economic growth and productivity.
• 🌍 By 2030, a global workforce crisis will impact major economies, including China, Brazil, and Russia, due to demographic trends and policy impacts like the one-child policy in China.
• 🤖 While automation and technology will boost productivity, they will also create a skill mismatch, with a need for high-skilled workers and an oversupply of low-skilled labor.
• 💡 The shift towards new technologies will result in job creation in emerging fields, requiring updated skills and training for workers.
• 📊 Survey data from over 200,000 job seekers indicate that cultural and recognition aspects of jobs (e.g., work-life balance, relationships with colleagues, and being appreciated) are more important than salary.
• 🧑‍💼 Governments and companies need to adopt comprehensive people strategies focusing on forecasting workforce needs, attracting diverse talent, upskilling employees, and building an appreciation culture.
• 📈 Upskilling and continuous education are essential to align worker capabilities with future job market demands.
• 💭 The workforce must be seen as valuable assets, not just costs or headcounts, to drive long-term growth and employee satisfaction.
• 🌏 Migration is a crucial short-term solution to address labor shortages, but long-term strategies must also focus on increasing workforce participation and skill development.

Q & A

Why is 2014 a special year for the speaker?

2014 marks the 20th anniversary of the speaker's career as a consultant, 20 years of marriage, and their 50th birthday.

What demographic shift is happening in Germany, according to the speaker?

Germany is experiencing a shrinking workforce due to the aging population, particularly as the baby boomers retire. The working-age population is decreasing, which will significantly impact labor supply in the coming years.

How does the speaker predict the labor supply in Germany will change by 2030?

The labor supply in Germany will decrease drastically by 2030, with a significant shortfall of workers, particularly as many baby boomers retire.

What does the red area on the German age pyramid represent?

The red area on the German age pyramid represents the potential working-age population, individuals between 15 and 65 years old.

What does the speaker predict about the global workforce by 2030?

By 2030, many of the world's largest economies, including Germany, China, Brazil, and Russia, will face a global workforce crisis due to labor shortages and skill mismatches.

What role does technology play in the labor market of the future?

Technology, including automation and robotics, will replace many jobs but also create new ones that require different skills, particularly in industries like automotive manufacturing.

How will the demand for labor change in Germany compared to the supply?

Germany will face a talent shortage of about eight million people, over 20% of the current workforce, as the demand for labor far exceeds the available supply.

What does the speaker mean by the term 'skill mismatch'?

The skill mismatch refers to the disparity between the types of skills that are in demand and the skills that workers currently possess. This will be a key challenge in the future labor market.

What were the top priorities for job seekers, according to the global survey?

The top priorities for job seekers were having a great relationship with colleagues, a good work-life balance, a positive relationship with the boss, and being appreciated for their work.

What strategies does the speaker suggest for addressing the global workforce crisis?

The speaker suggests that governments and businesses need to develop people strategies, including forecasting labor supply and demand, attracting diverse talent, upskilling workers, and fostering a culture of appreciation and recognition.