Latest AUDUSD Forecast and Technical Analysis for April 24, 2024

FX Pip Collector

24 Apr 202403:09

Summary

TLDRIn this insightful analysis, the speaker discusses the current state of the Aussie US dollar (AUD/USD) currency pair, offering a comprehensive top-down analysis from the monthly to the hourly time frame. They identify a potential 'big WXY pattern' and suggest that the most recent price action could be part of an ABC correction within Wave Y. The speaker anticipates a possible end to the correction with the current weekly candle, which could lead to an impulsive move up, indicative of a new wave sequence. On the daily chart, they note a strong impulsive move and a significant Fibonacci bounce, signaling a potential trend reversal. The four-hour chart is seen as an ongoing uptrend, with the speaker looking for long positions after the recent uptrend. Finally, on the hourly chart, they suggest the trend may not be over and that a small pullback could lead to another uptrend, confirming the higher time frame continuation. The speaker also invites viewers to join their free Discord group and check out their membership program for daily live trading sessions and swing trade setups.

Takeaways

📈 The speaker believes the AUD/USD currency pair is in a significant 'wxy' pattern, suggesting a potential trend change.
🌊 The most recent price action is considered an 'ABC' of Wave Y, which typically includes a 'Wave A' and 'Wave C'.
🔍 On the weekly time frame, the speaker anticipates the possibility of the end of a correction, which could signal the start of an uptrend.
🚀 An impulsive upward move is observed, which could represent the start of a new wave (Wave 1), followed by a corrective wave (Wave 2).
🎢 The daily time frame shows a strong impulsive move, with a potential 'ABCDE' pattern, indicating a possible downtrend for Wave C.
🎯 A significant Fibonacci level bounce is noted, which the speaker has been expecting as part of the pattern.
➡️ The speaker plans to go long, looking for confirmation of the trend with further price action.
📊 On the 4-hour time frame, an uptrend is identified, with the potential for a continuation (Wave 3) after a correction (Wave B or Wave 2).
🔄 The 1-hour time frame suggests the trend may not be over, with a possible 'three-way' pattern that could lead to a resumption of the uptrend.
📌 The speaker advises caution, with an eye on the Fibonacci retracement levels, expecting a pullback between 38% and 78% of the move up.
💬 The speaker invites listeners to join their free Discord group and check out their membership program for daily live trading sessions and swing trade setups.

Q & A

What is the speaker's main focus in the analysis?
-The speaker is focusing on analyzing the Aussie US dollar (AUD/USD) across different time frames, from monthly to hourly, to identify potential trading opportunities based on Elliott Wave Theory.
What is the 'wxy pattern' the speaker refers to?
-The 'wxy pattern' is a term used in Elliott Wave Theory to describe a three-wave correction that typically follows a strong five-wave impulse move. The speaker believes the AUD/USD is in such a pattern.
What does the speaker suggest could be the end of a 'correction'?
-The speaker suggests that depending on how the weekly candle closes, it could mark the end of a 'correction', which would imply the start of a new impulse wave to the upside.
What is the significance of the 'Fibonacci level' mentioned in the script?
-The 'Fibonacci level' refers to a key support or resistance level derived from the Fibonacci sequence, which is often used in technical analysis to predict potential reversal points. The speaker mentions a significant bounce at a Fibonacci level, indicating a possible reversal or continuation of a trend.
What trading bias does the speaker express towards the end of the script?
-The speaker expresses a bullish bias, suggesting that they would be looking to go long (buy) after the identified impulsive move up, and are looking for confirmation of the uptrend on higher time frames.
What is the potential trading strategy on the four-hour time frame?
-The speaker suggests that the four-hour time frame indicates an uptrend that may not be over. They propose a strategy of going long after a correction into the uptrend, which could be a wave B or a wave two, and then looking for a profit opportunity.
What does the speaker mean by 'CRUT' in the context of the one-hour time frame?
-The acronym 'CRUT' seems to be a typo or a mispronunciation. In the context, it likely refers to a 'corrective' move or a 'retracement', which is a temporary price movement opposite to the dominant trend.
What is the significance of the '3, 4, 5 save' mentioned by the speaker?
-The '3, 4, 5 save' is a reference to a potential pattern or sequence of waves in Elliott Wave Theory. The speaker suggests that the market needs to make this pattern to complete the current trend before moving on to the next phase.
What is the speaker's recommendation for traders interested in their analysis?
-The speaker recommends joining their free Discord Group and checking out their membership program, which provides access to daily live trading sessions and swing trade setups.
What is the website mentioned by the speaker for signing up to their membership program?
-The website mentioned by the speaker for signing up to their membership program is fxipcola.com.
How does the speaker conclude their analysis?
-The speaker concludes by reiterating the potential trading opportunities based on the Elliott Wave Theory analysis, and encourages traders to join their Discord Group and consider their membership program for more insights.

Outlines

00:00

📈 Analyzing the Aussie US Dollar Trend

The speaker, a self-proclaimed 'Traders fsp collector,' is providing an analysis of the Aussie US dollar currency pair on a specific date, Wednesday April 24th. They are conducting a comprehensive analysis starting from the monthly timeframe and moving down to the hourly chart. The speaker believes that the current trend resembles a 'big wxy pattern' and suggests that the most recent movements could be part of an ABC of Wave Y. They discuss the possibility of a wave A and C being present on different timeframes and speculate on the potential end of a 'creton' (likely a typo for 'correction') depending on the weekly candle's close. The speaker also mentions the potential for an impulsive upward move, which could be part of a larger wave sequence, and discusses the significance of Fibonacci levels in their analysis. They conclude by suggesting a long position and monitoring the market for further confirmation of the trend.

Mindmap

Keywords

💡Aussie US dollar

The term 'Aussie US dollar' refers to the currency pair involving the Australian dollar (AUD) and the US dollar (USD). In the video, the speaker is analyzing the trading patterns and potential future movements of this currency pair, which is central to the theme of the video as it focuses on forex trading analysis.

💡WXY pattern

The 'WXY pattern' is a technical analysis term used in trading to describe a specific type of price movement that consists of three waves: Wave W, Wave X, and Wave Y. In the context of the video, the speaker believes the AUD/USD is forming a big WXY pattern, which is significant for predicting future price action.

💡ABC of Wave Y

The 'ABC of Wave Y' refers to the sub-waves within Wave Y of an Elliott Wave structure, which is a method of technical analysis that traders use to forecast market trends. The speaker suggests that the most recent price action could be an ABC correction within Wave Y, indicating a possible trend reversal or continuation.

💡Fibonacci level

A 'Fibonacci level' is a key price level derived from the Fibonacci sequence, often used by traders to identify potential support and resistance levels in the market. The speaker mentions a 'big Fibonacci bounce,' which suggests that the AUD/USD price has reacted significantly at a level based on Fibonacci ratios.

💡Wave A and Wave C

In Elliott Wave theory, 'Wave A' and 'Wave C' are two of the five impulse waves that make up a complete cycle. The speaker discusses the relationship between these waves, noting that they should both be trending in the same direction and that Wave C often represents a significant move in the market.

💡Weekly time frame

The 'weekly time frame' refers to the period of a week when analyzing financial charts. It is one of the time frames the speaker is considering in their analysis. The speaker mentions that depending on how the current week closes, it could mark the end of a certain wave pattern in the AUD/USD currency pair.

💡Daily time frame

The 'daily time frame' is a term used in technical analysis that refers to analyzing financial charts on a daily basis. The speaker uses this time frame to discuss the impulsive nature of the AUD/USD's price action and to identify potential wave patterns within the daily price movements.

💡Four-hour time frame

The 'four-hour time frame' is another interval used for chart analysis, focusing on price action over four-hour periods. The speaker assesses the AUD/USD trend within this time frame, noting that it appears to be an uptrend and discussing potential trading strategies based on this observation.

💡One-hour time frame

The 'one-hour time frame' is the shortest time frame mentioned by the speaker, used to analyze very short-term price movements. The speaker suggests that the trend may not be over within this time frame and discusses the possibility of a small correction before the price moves up again.

💡Discord Group

A 'Discord Group' refers to a community on the Discord platform, which is often used by traders and gamers for real-time communication. The speaker invites viewers to join their free Discord Group for more interaction and trading discussions, which is a way to engage with the audience beyond the video content.

💡Membership program

A 'membership program' is a subscription service that offers exclusive content or benefits to its members. The speaker promotes their membership program, which includes daily live trading sessions and access to swing trade setups, as a way for viewers to deepen their trading knowledge and potentially improve their trading strategies.

Highlights

Analyzing the Aussie US dollar currency pair on a top-down approach from monthly to 1-hour timeframe.

Identification of a potential big WXY pattern in the market trend.

Discussion on the likelihood of the most recent set being an ABC of Wave Y.

Wave A and C are expected to show a trend on different timeframes, potentially indicating the end of a correction.

Mention of an impulsive uptrend that resembles a Wave 1, followed by a three-wave downtrend indicative of Wave 2.

The importance of the weekly candle close in determining the potential end of a correction and the start of an uptrend.

Fibonacci level bounce indicating a significant market move.

Strategy to go long after a big impulsive move up, with an eye on potential patterns to learn and earn.

On the 4-hour timeframe, an uptrend is observed, with a possible COR into the uptrend indicating a Wave B or Wave 2.

Suggestion to go long on the 4-hour timeframe with a plan to learn and earn from the trend.

Expectation of a one, two, and three wave pattern on higher timeframes to confirm the uptrend continuation.

1-hour timeframe analysis suggests the trend may not be over, with a possible three-way pattern before an uptrend.

Need for a 3, 4, 5 wave save to end the last setting of the trend, potentially indicating a Wave A or Wave 1.

Potential for a break and a COR into the whole move up, which would be a Wave B or Wave 2, with an expected move between 38% and 78% of the whole move up.

Invitation to join the speaker's free Discord Group for more trading insights.

Promotion of the membership program offering access to daily live trading sessions and swing trade setups.

Closing with thanks and well wishes for happy trading.